Conifer Holdings, Inc. (CNFR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Personal Lines drove the quarter with gross written premium up 22.3% year over year to $14.1M, while Commercial Lines shrank sharply due to the 2024 agency sale; total revenue and other income was $15.9M and diluted EPS was $0.04 .
• Underwriting performance deteriorated: combined ratio rose to 140.5% (vs. 96.7% YoY), reflecting elevated loss ratio from seasonal storms, especially in Texas; management expects loss ratio to moderate as the year progresses .
• Book value per share increased to $2.09, with management noting it was “largely due to GAAP treatment of an expected earn-out payment” tied to contingent considerations; the quarter included a $4.395M positive change in fair value of contingent considerations .
• Adjusted operating loss was $3.7M despite positive net income, underscoring underlying underwriting headwinds; Commercial Lines represented only ~12.6% of GWP as Conifer continues to pivot to Personal Lines homeowners in Texas and the Midwest .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Personal Lines momentum: GWP +22.3% YoY to $14.1M, net earned premiums +11.1% YoY to $9.0M, with management reiterating focus on Texas and Midwest homeowners .
• Positive net income and EPS: Net income allocable to common shareholders of $0.522M and diluted EPS of $0.04, supported by non-operating fair value gains .
• Book value improved to $2.09 per share; CEO highlighted that the increase was “largely due to GAAP treatment of an expected earn-out payment,” signaling capital improvement despite underwriting pressure .

Quoted management: “Overall, Conifer had an up and down quarter, netting to a small gain… book value did increase, but largely due to GAAP treatment of an expected earn-out payment.” — Brian Roney, CEO .

What Went Wrong

• Underwriting losses: Combined ratio rose to 140.5% (Loss 89.7%, Expense 50.8%) vs. 96.7% YoY, driven by elevated loss ratio from seasonal storms, particularly in Texas .
• Commercial Lines remained weak: GWP down 84% YoY to $2.0M; accident-year combined ratio 185.0% evidencing continued headwinds/reserve dynamics in runoff .
• Core profitability pressure: Adjusted operating loss of $3.7M despite positive GAAP net income, reflecting that underlying operations remain challenged post-strategic shift .

Financial Results

Headline Financials vs. prior quarters (oldest → newest)

Notes: Q3 2024 included a $61M gain on sale of the insurance agency operations (discontinued ops), boosting net income; Q4 2024 was adversely impacted by reserve strengthening; Q1 2025 included a $4.395M positive change in fair value of contingent considerations .

Segment Breakdown — Q1 2025

KPIs and Other Items — Q1 2025

Guidance Changes

Conifer did not issue quantitative guidance (revenue, EPS, margins, OpEx, tax rate, or segment guidance) in its Q1 2025 release/8-K. Management included forward-looking statements but no numeric ranges .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available in the document catalog; themes are based on management disclosures in press releases/8-Ks .

Management Commentary

• “While we were pleased to see continued growth in our Personal lines production, overall, Conifer had an up and down quarter, netting to a small gain. Of note for the period, book value did increase, but largely due to GAAP treatment of an expected earn-out payment.” — Brian Roney, CEO .
• “For the quarter, the loss ratio was impacted by ordinary seasonal storms, largely in Texas. As per the expected norm, we believe that the loss ratio should moderate as the year progresses.” — Management commentary .
• Strategic framing continues to emphasize Personal Lines homeowners in Texas/Midwest and deemphasize Commercial Lines following the 2024 agency sale .

Q&A Highlights

No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available; therefore, Q&A themes and guidance clarifications cannot be assessed from a call transcript .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable; we could not determine beats/misses versus consensus. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• S&P Global reflects an actual “Revenue” figure of $11.415M for Q1 2025 under Revenue Consensus Mean (likely reflecting a specific revenue definition for insurers, not total revenue and other income), but no consensus or EPS data was returned.*

* Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Personal Lines are the core growth engine (GWP +22.3% YoY; 87.4% of GWP), but margins were pressured by storm seasonality; management expects loss ratio moderation as the year progresses .
• The pivot away from Commercial Lines is largely complete; the segment is now ~12.6% of GWP but remains loss-heavy (accident-year combined ratio 185%), so continued runoff/reserve actions are key to margin trajectory .
• Reported GAAP profitability benefited from non-operating items (contingent consideration fair value +$4.395M), while adjusted operating loss ($3.7M) highlights underlying underwriting weakness — focus on accident-year ratios and Personal Lines profitability to gauge true trend .
• Book value per share improved to $2.09, but is sensitive to transaction-related fair value adjustments; monitor earn-out developments and statutory capital as underwriting stabilizes .
• Near-term trading may hinge on evidence of loss ratio normalization post-storm season and sustained Personal Lines growth in Texas/Midwest; watch subsequent quarter loss/combined ratios and net earned premium progression .
• With no formal guidance and limited Street coverage, results-driven narrative will dominate; consider scenario analysis on Personal Lines margin recovery versus additional reserve actions in Commercial Lines .
• Prior quarters frame context: Q3 2024 had a one-time sale gain ($61M), Q4 2024 saw heavy reserve strengthening; Q1 2025 shows operational challenges but improved capital metrics — trajectory in 2H25 will be critical .