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Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $540.7M with a net loss of $(38.9)M and diluted EPS of $(0.32); Adjusted EBITDA was $36.4M (6.7% margin), reflecting strike-related box office softness and operating deleverage .
  • Revenue beat Wall Street consensus ($522.45M*) while EPS missed (consensus $(0.30)*), driven by higher concessions COGS mix and inflationary costs; attendance was 36.6M .
  • Management emphasized accelerating Q2 box office momentum (Minecraft record openings, Memorial Day records), reinstated dividend ($0.08 quarterly), and executed $200M buybacks to mitigate convert-related dilution .
  • Capital allocation priorities: repay $460M convert principal in August using cash on hand; ended Q1 with $699M cash; net leverage ~3x at high end of target 2–3x .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: sustained box office momentum, premium formats/D-BOX expansion, merchandising growth, and clarity on convert/warrants settlement dynamics .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Cinemark once again delivered outsized box office results… surpassing industry benchmarks both domestically and internationally,” with domestic outperformance by 160 bps YoY and international by ~60 bps .
  • Record domestic food & beverage per cap of $7.98; strategic pricing and higher incidence drove robust concession performance .
  • Q2 momentum: Minecraft delivered company record openings, best-ever D-BOX weekend; Memorial Day set multiple all-time box office and F&B records .

What Went Wrong

  • Attendance fell 7.8% YoY to 36.6M; revenue down 6.6% YoY amid lingering strike impacts and weaker slate; EBITDA compressed to $36.4M (vs $70.7M LY) .
  • Concession COGS rate rose 150 bps YoY (mix toward merchandise, lower rebates, inflation), pressuring margins despite pricing actions .
  • Utilities/other expense up 5% YoY on property taxes, credit card fees, repairs/maintenance; G&A up on wage/benefit inflation and share-based comp .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$921.8 $814.3 $540.7
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.19 $0.33 $(0.32)
Net Income Attrib. to CNK ($USD Millions)$187.8 $51.3 $(38.9)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$220.5 $156.9 $36.4
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)23.9% 19.3% (calc from revenue & EBITDA) 6.7%
Attendance (Millions)60.4 51.0 36.6
Average Ticket Price ($)$7.62 $7.97 $7.22
Concession Revenue per Patron ($)$6.08 $6.15 $5.75
Q1 2025 Actual vs ConsensusQ1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$540.7 vs $522.45*
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.32) vs $(0.30)*
EPS – # of Estimates7*
Revenue – # of Estimates8*
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment Breakdown (Revenue & KPIs)Q1 2024Q1 2025
U.S. Admissions Revenue ($M)$231.8 $207.6
U.S. Concession Revenue ($M)$178.6 $164.4
U.S. Other Revenue ($M)$46.6 $45.1
U.S. Total Revenue ($M)$457.0 $417.1
U.S. Attendance (M)23.6 20.6
U.S. Avg Ticket ($)$9.82 $10.08
U.S. Concession per Patron ($)$7.57 $7.98
International Admissions ($M)$58.0 $56.5
International Concession ($M)$45.6 $46.0
International Other ($M)$18.6 $21.1
International Total Revenue ($M)$122.2 $123.6
International Attendance (M)16.1 16.0
International Avg Ticket ($)$3.60 $3.53
International Concession per Patron ($)$2.83 $2.88
International Total Revenue (Constant FX, $M)—$141.8
Additional Operating/Balance SheetQ4 2024Q1 2025
Film Rentals & Advertising ($M)$235.7 $141.4
Concession Supplies ($M)$60.3 $44.3
Salaries & Wages ($M)$107.7 $90.3
Utilities & Other ($M)$127.3 $105.7
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$1,057.3 $699.4
Total Long-term Debt ($M)$2,334.7 $2,335.2
Total Equity ($M)$603.4 $357.6

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Capital Expenditures ($)FY 2025N/A~$225M Established
DividendOngoingReinstated $0.32 per annum (Q4’24) Declared $0.08 quarterly for June 12 payment Maintained cadence
Share Repurchases2025Authorization announced March $200M executed; 7.93M shares repurchased at $25.22 Completed program
Convertible Notes SettlementAug 2025Intent to repay principal Plan to repay $460M principal with cash; issue shares for exposure above strike Maintained approach
Leverage TargetOngoing2x–3x At ~3x; maintain target Maintained
Pricing/Per Cap OutlookFY 2025Moderate growth expected (implied) Modest ATP growth; moderate per cap growth; FX pressure internationally Maintained qualitative

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2: Q3’24)Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
Film slate & box office cadenceHighest quarterly box office since pandemic; strong tentpoles Record Q4 revenue; FY revenue >$3B Q1 softness; Q2 accelerating (Minecraft, Memorial Day) Improving into Q2
Market shareUS/LatAm >100 bps vs 2019; strong Extended outperformance +160 bps domestic YoY; ~+60 bps international; may compress in heavy slate due to capacity High but may temper
Premium formats (XD, D-BOX)PLF penetration; per caps record Continued investments Best-ever D-BOX weekend; 70 planned installs; premium tailwind expected Expanding
Concessions & merchandisePer caps record ($7.97 US, $6.08 WW) FY per cap $5.96 US per cap record $7.98; merch growing but COGS mix up Growth with mix cost
Capital allocationRefinancing notes; strong cash Dividend reinstated; strong FCF $200M buyback done; repay convert; dividend paid Shareholder returns rising
Macro & windowsN/A (macro resilience implied)N/ATheatrical windows under debate; macro resilience of moviegoing Active dialog; resilient demand
Repairs/maintenance & costsN/AFY repairs/maintenance increase expected Utilities/other elevated; R&M +$8–10M expected for 2025 Cost pressure manageable

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We continue to expect a favorable rebound in our industry's recovery trajectory this year… the second quarter is already pacing well ahead of 2024’s box office results” .
  • CFO: “We generated $36.4 million of adjusted EBITDA… despite operating deleverage associated with lower attendance levels… We ended the quarter with $699 million of cash” .
  • CEO: “We… executed $200 million of share repurchases… our first-ever stock buyback program… to mitigate potential dilution associated with the settlement of our convertible notes and related warrants” .
  • CFO: “We intend to repay the $460 million principal amount of our convertible notes using cash on hand upon their maturity in August” .
  • CEO: On windows: “A flexible window structure provides benefits… but more of a 5-[?] day average across the bulk of films is a good target” (optimal length under discussion) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Share repurchases and convert settlement: Completed $200M buyback; will repay $460M principal; incremental exposure above strike to be settled in shares based on market price at maturity .
  • Concession COGS mix: Increase driven primarily by higher merchandise mix; rebates lower; inflation pressures; expect COGS rate growth YoY but not at Q1’s clip .
  • Market share vs capacity: High content cadence can compress share due to occupancy thresholds; focus on profitability and expanding operating hours where accretive .
  • Premium formats & pricing: Expect premium format mix tailwind; modest ATP growth with careful pricing analytics; no evidence of trade-down behavior .
  • Utilities/other: Elevated from property tax compares, repairs/maintenance (+$8–10M 2025), and higher credit card fees from online penetration; expect utilities/other as % revenue to remain elevated .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 revenue beat consensus ($540.7M vs $522.45M*) while EPS missed ($(0.32) vs $(0.30)) amid higher costs and mix pressures; 7 EPS and 8 revenue estimates contributed to consensus .
  • Estimate implications: Near-term EPS forecasts may drift lower on margin headwinds, but box office momentum, premium mix, and merchandising could support upward revenue revisions; watch FX headwinds internationally .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Box office momentum is accelerating in Q2 (Minecraft, Memorial Day records), positioning CNK for margin expansion as operating leverage improves through the year .
  • Pricing and per-cap initiatives are working (US per cap record $7.98), though merchandise mix elevates COGS; expect moderated COGS rate increases vs Q1 .
  • Capital returns: $200M buybacks executed and dividend reinstated ($0.08 quarterly); convert principal repayment in August should reduce uncertainty; monitor warrant dilution management .
  • Premium formats/D-BOX expansion and merchandising provide incremental revenue opportunities and pricing tailwinds; expect continued investment in laser/XD and motion seats .
  • Costs: Utilities/other and repairs/maintenance will remain elevated; model ~$8–10M higher R&M in 2025 and credit card fee pressure with online transactions .
  • Market share likely to temper in high-content periods due to capacity constraints, but profitability should improve with attendance scale and strong slate .
  • International steady: attendance flat YoY, small revenue growth; FX remains a watch item; constant currency shows stronger performance .