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    CENTERPOINT ENERGY (CNP)

    CNP Q2 2025: 6GW Load Growth Backs 8% EPS Upside

    Reported on Jul 24, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$37.12Last close (Jul 23, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$36.71Open (Jul 24, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.41(-1.10%)
    • Robust near‐term load growth: The Q&A highlighted a 6 gigawatt increase in load interconnection requests—primarily driven by data center activity (about two-thirds) and advanced manufacturing—with many of these interconnections expected to begin coming online as early as 2026 to 2028.
    • Non-dilutive capital investment flexibility: Management noted that further CapEx increases can be funded through improved operating cash flows and proceeds from asset sales (e.g., the proposed sale of the Ohio gas business) without additional common equity issuance, thereby supporting a sustainable balance sheet and reducing dilution.
    • Strong long-term earnings outlook: The reaffirmation of non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.74 to $1.76 for 2025 (implying an 8% EPS growth from 2024) combined with ongoing targeted investments in transmission and system resiliency underpins an optimistic view for future profitability and cash flow generation.
    • Earnings drag from mobile generation assets: The company expects a negative impact on earnings from assets being contributed to San Antonio, which will act as a drag until they flip to a tailwind as early as fall 2026.
    • Dependence on non-equity financing and asset sales: While the company emphasizes funding additional capital expenditures without issuing common equity, this strategy relies on successful forward equity sales and the sale of its Ohio gas LDC. Delays or unfavorable terms in these transactions could jeopardize expected financing flexibility.
    • Uncertainty in regulatory proceedings: Ongoing hearings and settlements in rate cases, including the barrel proceeding for storm cost recovery, present execution risks. Unfavorable outcomes or delays could impact the company’s operating cash flow and earnings guidance.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    33% decrease (from $2,920 million in Q1 2025 to $1,944 million in Q2 2025 )

    The overall decline is driven primarily by a steep drop in Natural Gas and CERC revenues—both of which fell by nearly 59%—overwhelming gains in Revenue from Contracts and moderate growth in the Electric Segment observed in the prior period.

    Revenue from Contracts

    34% increase (from $892 million in Q1 2025 to $1,195 million in Q2 2025 )

    This growth is mainly due to higher customer rates and improved rate design adjustments that built on the contract revenue trends seen in Q1 2025, reflecting better pricing and billing outcomes compared to the previous period.

    Electric Segment

    12% increase (from $1,066 million in Q1 2025 to $1,191 million in Q2 2025 )

    The Electric Segment benefited from continued customer growth and rate increases, showing steady momentum from Q1 2025’s performance, which enhanced revenue despite broader sector challenges.

    Natural Gas Segment

    59% decline (from $1,852 million in Q1 2025 to $750 million in Q2 2025 )

    The dramatic drop reflects a sharp reversal from Q1 2025’s high levels—likely driven by milder weather and reduced throughput—underscoring the segment’s sensitivity to seasonal factors and market pricing that were favorable in Q1 but not sustained into Q2.

    CERC Revenues

    59% decrease overall (from $1,788 million in Q1 2025 to $731 million in Q2 2025; utility revenues down 34% from $2,906 million to $1,929 million; non-utility revenues modestly up from $14 million to $15 million )

    CERC revenues declined sharply, mirroring the trends in the Natural Gas segment. The significant drop in utility revenue—due to lower natural gas throughput and pricing adjustments—overshadowed a slight increase in non-utility revenues, marking a reversal from the prior period’s elevated figures.

    Corporate and Other Revenues

    50% increase (from $2 million in Q1 2025 to $3 million in Q2 2025 )

    Although the absolute numbers remain small, this modest increase likely reflects structural adjustments following earlier divestitures, with the post-sale base in Q1 2025 being very low, thus accentuating a percentage growth in Q2 2025.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Non-GAAP EPS Guidance

    FY 2025

    "$1.74 to $1.76, 8% growth from $1.62"

    "$1.74 to $1.76, 8% earnings growth"

    no change

    Long-Term Non-GAAP EPS Growth

    FY 2025

    "Grows at mid- to high end of the 6% to 8% range annually through 2030"

    "Expects to grow at mid- to high end of the 6% to 8% range annually through 2030"

    no change

    Dividend Growth

    FY 2025

    "Expected to grow in line with earnings growth"

    "Expects to grow dividends per share in line with earnings growth"

    no change

    Capital Investment Plan

    FY 2025

    "$1 billion increase, total $48.5 billion through 2030"

    "$500,000,000 increase, total $5,500,000,000 for 2025"

    lowered

    Credit Metrics

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    "14.1% trailing twelve-month adjusted FFO/debt ratio; nearly $400,000,000 securitization proceeds"

    no prior guidance

    Operating Cash Flow Improvement

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    "5% improvement to operating cash flow"

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Robust Load Growth Trends

    Q1 2025 highlighted a conservative forecast with a 10‐gigawatt peak load increase, Q4 2024 discussed a nearly 50% increase in peak demand driven by diverse economic drivers, and Q3 2024 emphasized load growth trends in Houston

    Q2 2025 reaffirmed robust load growth in Houston Electric with a 10‐gigawatt forecasted increase, growing interconnection queues, and diversified growth drivers

    Consistent emphasis with a slightly amplified narrative on diversified growth and capacity expansion.

    Data Center and Industrial/Advanced Manufacturing Demand

    Q1 2025 detailed that nearly 6 GW of increased interconnection demand was driven by data centers and modest industrial contributions; Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 reinforced data center demand and industrial growth through interconnection requests and advanced technologies

    Q2 2025 noted that about two‑thirds of the 6 GW increase in the interconnection queue stemmed from data centers, with the remainder from advanced manufacturing and industrial sectors

    Steady focus remains; sentiment is consistently positive with data centers and industrial demand acting as key growth drivers.

    Capital Expenditure Investment and Transmission Infrastructure

    Q1 2025 discussed a $1 billion CapEx increase and upcoming transmission projects; Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 outlined investments exceeding targets and projects tied to system resiliency and transmission build‐outs

    Q2 2025 announced a further $500 million increase – now a total 10‑year plan of $53 billion – with a strong focus on nearly 200 transmission projects and resiliency investments

    Consistent upward focus with increasingly aggressive capital investments and a clear emphasis on transmission infrastructure renewal.

    Regulatory Environment and Policy Uncertainty

    Q1 2025 detailed rate case resolutions and pending 765 kV versus 345 kV decisions; Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 addressed regulatory settlements, policy decision timelines, and their impact on CapEx

    No specific discussion on regulatory framework or pending voltage standard decisions was included in Q2 2025 [N/A]

    Less emphasis in the current period; this topic is downplayed compared to previous quarters. [N/A]

    Earnings Guidance and Long-Term Financial Outlook

    Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 consistently reaffirmed non‑GAAP EPS guidance (around $1.74–$1.76) and long‑term EPS growth of 6%–8% annually, supporting a stable outlook

    Q2 2025 reaffirmed the 2025 EPS guidance range of $1.74 to $1.76 and reiterated its long‑term growth outlook, expecting mid- to high-end 6%–8% annual increases

    Steady and consistent messaging, reinforcing investor confidence in earnings and long‑term fundamentals.

    Financing Strategy and Capital Structure Flexibility

    Q1 2025 outlined a 50/50 debt-equity approach with forward equity sales; Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 discussed non-dilutive funding strategies and asset sales (including LDC divestitures and securitizations)

    Q2 2025 emphasized improved operating cash flow, securitization proceeds (e.g. $1.7 billion from storm recoveries), forward equity sales, and the proposed Ohio Gas LDC sale—all supporting non-dilutive financing for additional investments

    Consistent emphasis on non-dilutive funding and capital structure flexibility, with ongoing asset optimization and proactive cash flow management.

    Earnings Drag from Mobile Generation Assets and Transition to Unregulated Business

    Q4 2024 discussed the transition process for mobile generation assets (with an eventual shift to unregulated business and removal from the rate base), while Q3 2024 briefly mentioned proposals around temporary generation adjustments; Q1 2025 had no mention

    Q2 2025 noted an earnings drag from mobile generation assets contributed to a free asset transfer to San Antonio, with the drag expected to continue until 2026–2027, but without an extended discussion on transitioning to unregulated business

    Continued challenge with earnings drag acknowledged; however, the focus on transitioning assets (unregulated business) is reduced compared to earlier detailed discussions.

    CapEx Execution and Timing Risks

    Q1 2025 described tailwinds and incremental CapEx opportunities (including potential 765 kV impacts); Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 provided detailed execution numbers and addressed timing risks with storm cost adjustments and phased project rollouts

    Q2 2025 emphasized a $500 million CapEx increase, execution of roughly 200 projects over 10 years, and highlighted mitigation of timing risks via improved cash flow and phased project execution

    A consistent narrative with an increased focus on timely execution and risk mitigation, supported by stronger funding and project planning.

    Credit Metrics Concerns and Stakeholder Trust/Reputation Challenges

    Q1 2025 and Q3 2024 provided detailed discussions around FFO-to-debt ratios near 13.9%–13.8% and engaged stakeholder communication regarding regulatory and resiliency efforts; Q4 2024 did not include commentary on this topic

    Q2 2025 reported an adjusted FFO-to-debt ratio of 14.1%, noted sizeable securitization proceeds, and underscored continued constructive stakeholder engagements during regulatory and resiliency discussions

    Consistent emphasis on strengthening credit metrics and maintaining stakeholder trust, with slight improvements noted in current period ratios and proactive reputation management efforts.

    1. CapEx Flexibility
      Q: How much extra CapEx without new equity?
      A: Management did not quantify exact figures but indicated capacity is north of the $500 million increase announced today, suggesting ample flexibility to absorb further spending without needing additional common equity.

    2. Capital Funding
      Q: Are spending and funding mix sustainable?
      A: They explained that while CapEx is upward‐biased through the decade, improved operating cash flows and strategic asset sales allow funding beyond the traditional 50/50 debt‑equity mix, reducing equity reliance.

    3. Gas LDC Sale
      Q: What is the gas sale timeline?
      A: Management expects to announce progress on the Ohio gas LDC sale toward the end of the calendar year, with a closing roughly one year later, as part of its asset recycling strategy.

    4. Equity Base
      Q: Will extra CapEx require new common equity?
      A: They confirmed the base equity of $2.75 billion has been derisked, and additional capital investments are planned to be funded through operating cash flows and the sale without needing further dilutive equity.

    5. Load Growth
      Q: What drives the six gigawatts increase?
      A: Management attributed about two-thirds of the six-gigawatt load growth to data center activity, with the remainder coming from advanced manufacturing and energy exports, expecting much of these interconnection requests in late 2026–2028.

    6. Mobile Gen Drag
      Q: How long will mobile gen drag persist?
      A: The drag from contributed mobile generation assets is expected to remain until these assets free up, likely converting to a tailwind from fall 2026 to spring 2027 as they are remarketed.

    7. Downtown CapEx
      Q: When will downtown spending occur?
      A: Management noted that upfront spending on downtown infrastructure is underway, with major work anticipated over the next five years as part of a multi-year, city-driven revitalization effort.

    8. Interconnection Dynamics
      Q: Has SB6 affected load requests?
      A: They clarified that SB6 has not slowed down interconnection requests, which continue robustly due to strong demand drivers despite potential cost-allocation questions.

    Research analysts covering CENTERPOINT ENERGY.