Executive Summary

Q2 revenue beat but EPS missed: Revenue of $1.10B vs $1.01B consensus (beat by ~$89M), while EPS of -$0.70 vs +$0.61 consensus (miss by $1.33). Adjusted EBITDA of $144.3M exceeded the $124.3M consensus, supported by strong high c.v. thermal and PRB execution despite Leer South idle costs ($21.2M) and softer met markets . Consensus figures marked with (*) from S&P Global.
Raised synergy target and capital returns: CNR lifted annual synergy target to $150–$170M and returned $87.1M in Q2 via buybacks/dividend; liquidity rose to $948M with $413M cash .
Operational traction where it matters: High c.v. thermal volumes +18% q/q with cost/ton down to $39.47; PRB volumes 12.6Mt with cash margin/ton above guidance; Leer longwall set another production record; Leer South restart plan continues (Q3 fire/idle costs $20–$30M; insurance recovery expected >$100M) .
Guidance mix shifts: PRB sales volume guidance raised to 45–48Mt (from 39–42Mt) with lower cash cost/ton; met cash cost range nudged up amid Leer South outage; committed/priced positions expanded across segments with updated pricing .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- High c.v. thermal execution: “significant step-up in sales volumes and lower unit costs” offset softer pricing; realized revenue/ton $60.50; cash cost/ton $39.47 .
- PRB strength: 12.6Mt sold at $14.69/ton with $13.40 cash cost/ton, delivering cash margin/ton above prior guidance; supports raised FY PRB volume guide .
- Synergies and FCF: Annual synergy target lifted to $150–$170M; generated $220.2M CFO and $131.1M FCF; returned $87.1M to shareholders; “expect continuing robust free cash flow” in H2 .
What Went Wrong
- EPS miss and net loss: GAAP EPS -$0.70 vs +$0.61 consensus*, driven by Leer South fire/idle costs ($21.2M) and soft met markets, despite EBITDA beat .
- Met segment pressure: Realized revenue/ton $104.22; cash cost/ton $95.93 with Leer South outages; segment Adjusted EBITDA negative (-$2.7M) .
- Leer South delay: Re-entry on June 10; resealed June 26 due to CO; equipment recovery/reposition by end-Oct targeted; Q3 idle/fire costs $20–$30M; execution risk persists even with >$100M insurance recovery expected .

Financial Results

Headline performance vs consensus (Q2 2025)

Metric	Consensus*	Actual	Delta
Revenue ($M)	1,013.2	1,102.4	+89.2
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	124.3	144.3	+20.0
Diluted EPS ($)	0.61	-0.70	-1.33

Note: Consensus values marked with (*) are from S&P Global.

Quarterly progression (limited YoY comparability due to January 2025 merger)

Metric	Q4 2024 (Legacy CONSOL)	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)	595.3	1,017.4	1,102.4
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	170.0 (Legacy CONSOL)	123.5	144.3
Diluted EPS ($)	1.04 (Legacy CONSOL)	-1.38	-0.70

Segment performance (Q2 2025)

Segment	Revenues ($000s)	Tons Sold (M)	Realized Rev/ton ($)	Cash Cost/ton ($)	Adj. EBITDA ($000s)
High c.v. Thermal	606,500	8.388	60.50	39.47	176,358
Metallurgical (incl. byproduct)	299,994	2.235	104.22	95.93	-2,702
PRB	186,872	12.556	14.69	13.40	16,166
Terminal	22,572	—	—	—	14,994
Consolidated	1,102,361	—	—	—	144,270

Met segment detail (Q2 2025)

Metric	Coking	Thermal byproduct	Total Met
Realized Rev/ton ($)	114.71	45.74	104.22
Tons Sold (M)	1.895	0.340	2.235

Cash flow and capital return KPIs

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Net cash from operating activities ($000s)	-109,638	220,161
Capital expenditures ($000s)	64,822	89,185
Free cash flow ($000s)	49,136	131,064
Share repurchases ($000s)	101,300	81,893
Dividends paid ($000s)	—	5,223
Liquidity ($M)	858.3	948.0
Cash & cash equivalents ($M)	388.5	413.0

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q1 2025)	Current Guidance (Q2 2025)	Change
PRB sales volume (Mt)	FY 2025	39.0–42.0	45.0–48.0	Raised
PRB cash cost/ton ($)	FY 2025	13.75–14.25	12.75–13.25	Lowered
High c.v. thermal sales (Mt)	FY 2025	29.0–31.0	29.0–31.0	Maintained
High c.v. thermal cash cost/ton ($)	FY 2025	38.00–40.00	38.00–40.00	Maintained
Met coking sales (Mt)	FY 2025	7.5–8.0	7.5–8.0	Maintained
Met cash cost/ton ($)	FY 2025	94.00–98.00	95.00–99.00	Slightly higher
PRB committed/priced (Mt, $/t)	2025	41.9 @ $14.77	47.8 @ $14.40	Vol up; price down (royalty cut impact)
High c.v. thermal committed/priced (Mt, $/t)	2025	26.0 @ $61–$63	29.8 @ $60–$62	Vol up; price slightly lower
Coking committed/priced (Mt, $/t)	2025	2.9 @ $122.38	4.5 @ $118.20	Vol up; price lower
Capex ($M)	FY 2025	300–330	300–330	Maintained
DD&A ($M)	FY 2025	—	560–590	New disclosure
Dividend	Q3 2025	$0.10 declared (program)	$0.10 declared, payable Sep 15	Maintained

Additional outlook items: Leer South Q3 fire/idle costs expected $20–$30M; insurance recoveries expected to exceed $100M .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
Leer South restart	Mid-year restart expected; resumed development (Q4/Q1)	Resealed June 26 due to CO; plan to recover/reposition equipment by end-Oct; Q3 costs $20–$30M; >$100M insurance recoveries expected	Delayed restart; execution steps defined
Capital returns	New 75% FCF target; $1B buyback; $0.10 dividend (Q4)	Returned $87.1M in Q2; buybacks plus dividend; confidence in ongoing returns	Continuing, well-funded
Synergies	One-third captured early; target $125–$150M (Q4/Q1)	Target raised to $150–$170M; expect margin expansion and leaner structure	Upward revision
Domestic power demand / PRB	PAMC and domestic market strengthening (Q1)	PRB volumes 12.6Mt; FY PRB volume guide raised; royalty reduction supports margin	Improving
Regulatory/policy	—	Executive orders and OBBBA Act supportive (royalty reduction, 45X credit)	More supportive policy backdrop
Met market	Weak international conditions (Q1)	Still soft; met segment EBITDA negative; Leer South costs weigh	Persistent headwind

Management Commentary

“During the second quarter, the Core team continued to demonstrate the value-driving potential of the combined platform … generating significant free cash flow despite a soft market environment and the longwall outage at Leer South.” — Paul A. Lang, CEO
“As we look ahead, we expect continuing robust free cash flow generation … coupled with expected insurance recoveries, increased synergy capture, and the potential for further working capital improvement.” — Mitesh Thakkar, President & CFO
“We expect these efforts to drive … reductions in our average operating costs, an expansion of our operating margins, and a significantly leaner corporate structure.” — Paul A. Lang

Q&A Highlights

Capital returns pacing: Management reiterated the 75% FCF return framework; Q2 buybacks were $81.9M with flexibility to adjust by quarter as conditions warrant .
Insurance proceeds: CFO indicated insurance recoveries related to Leer South are available for corporate purposes, including capital returns; business interruption recovery expected in 2026 .
Leer South restart confidence: CEO expressed high confidence in recovering/repositioning longwall in early fall to resume production shortly thereafter .
Contracting outlook: Management described constructive met coal contracting and increased participation domestically; PRB contracting remains solid given strengthening power demand .
Working capital: CFO expects some reversal in H2 (not as large as Q2), supporting cash generation cadence .

Full transcript references: Seeking Alpha transcript and MarketScreener summary .

Estimates Context

Headline comparison (Q2 2025): Revenue $1.102B vs $1.013B consensus*, Adjusted EBITDA $144.3M vs $124.3M consensus*, EPS -$0.70 vs +$0.61 consensus*. Mixed outcome with a significant EPS miss but strong top-line and EBITDA beats .
Near-term outlook (Street): Q3 2025 consensus implies modest sequential revenue dip and EBITDA improvement; EPS expected to remain negative before turning positive by Q1 2026*. Use case: model adjustments likely increase EBITDA/FCF trajectories (synergies, PRB volumes/costs) while trimming near-term EPS for Leer South Q3 costs.

Note: Values marked with (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

The quarter was operationally resilient: top-line and EBITDA beats anchored by high c.v. thermal and PRB execution, offset by Leer South-related EPS drag .
Synergy capture and policy tailwinds strengthen the medium-term margin story; raised synergy target and PRB royalty reduction support expanding margins through 2026 .
Capital return durability looks solid given liquidity ($948M cash + availability) and FCF cadence; buybacks likely remain primary lever with a steady $0.10 dividend .
Watch Leer South milestones (equipment recovery by end-Oct, Q3 costs $20–$30M); successful restart would relieve met cost pressure and restore segment profitability .
Guidance mix is more constructive: PRB volume/cost guidance improved; committed/priced positions expanded across segments, de-risking H2 volumes/prices .
Short-term trading implications: Expect stock to react to operational milestones at Leer South and any incremental buyback acceleration; continued EBITDA delivery vs consensus could support multiple, even with EPS volatility* .
Medium-term thesis: Diversified platform plus synergies, improved PRB economics, and policy support create a multi-year FCF story, with met normalization and Leer South restart as key catalysts .

Sources:

Q2 2025 8-K and press release, financial/segment tables, guidance .
Q1 2025 press release for trends and prior guidance .
Q4 2024 release (legacy CONSOL) for baseline context .
Additional Q2 PRs (Leer South update; earnings call timing) .
External transcript references .

S&P Global estimates disclaimer: Consensus values denoted with (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary