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CN

Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • EPS beat but revenue slight miss vs S&P Global consensus: Primary EPS $0.78* vs -$0.87* est. (beat), Revenue $1.003B vs $1.027B est. (miss). GAAP diluted EPS was $0.61; Adj. EBITDA $141.2M; Free cash flow $38.9M . Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Contracting momentum and liquidity underpin outlook: ~26Mt of new commitments in Q3 across segments; 2026 book now ~17Mt high‑CV thermal and ~40Mt PRB; liquidity $995.4M (cash $444.7M) .
  • Guidance reset: raised PRB volumes, trimmed coking volumes, raised certain cash cost ranges; capex cut to $260–$290M from $300–$330M; D&A nudged up to $575–$600M .
  • Key swing factors: Leer South restart timing (government shutdown delaying MSHA access), West Elk B‑Seam transition, policy/royalty tailwinds in PRB, and rare earths/critical minerals optionality .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Solid cash generation and balance sheet: Net cash from ops $87.9M; FCF $38.9M; liquidity $995.4M; cash $444.7M .
  • Contracting strength at attractive margins: ~26Mt of new commitments across all segments; 2026 book ~17Mt high‑CV thermal and ~40Mt PRB, supporting visibility into 2026 .
  • Management tone on execution and 2026 setup: “We believe the stage is set for Core to begin to deliver on its full potential as we approach 2026.” — Jimmy Brock, CEO/Chair . CFO reiterated focus on cost control, synergy capture, Leer South restart, and strong contracted positions supporting FCF .

What Went Wrong

  • Sequential revenue decline and pricing mix: Revenue fell to $1,002.5M from $1,102.4M in Q2; high‑CV thermal realizations $59.78/ton down modestly QoQ due to customer mix .
  • Ongoing Leer South downtime and costs: Q3 included $18.4M in fire extinguishment/idle costs; Q4 expected $15–$25M more; restart gating on MSHA availability during government shutdown .
  • PRB pass‑through dampened realized price: Royalty reduction lowered both realized revenue and costs due to contract pass‑throughs, muting QoQ pricing while preserving/improving margins .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L and Profitability (chronological: Q1 → Q3)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,017.4 [Investors PR: https://investors.corenaturalresources.com/2025-05-08-Core-Natural-Resources-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results]$1,102.4 $1,002.5
Net Income ($USD Millions)-$69.3 [Investors PR: https://investors.corenaturalresources.com/2025-05-08-Core-Natural-Resources-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results]-$36.6 $31.6
Diluted EPS (GAAP)-$1.38 [Investors PR: https://investors.corenaturalresources.com/2025-05-08-Core-Natural-Resources-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results]-$0.70 $0.61
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$123.5 $144.3 $141.2

Margins (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EBITDA Margin %10.30%*13.02%*13.23%*
Net Income Margin %-6.81%*-3.32%*3.15%*
Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment KPIs (Q3 detail)

SegmentRevenues ($M)Tons Sold (M short tons)Realized Coal Revenue/ton ($)Cash Cost/ton ($)
High CV Thermal$514.7 7.229 $59.78 $40.53
Metallurgical (total)$292.7 2.222 $101.60 $94.18
• Coking (subset)$209.0 1.850 $112.94 —
• Thermal byproduct (subset)$16.8 0.372 $45.18 —
PRB$186.4 13.030 $14.09 $13.04

Segment KPI trends (Q2 vs Q3)

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
High CV Thermal Realized $/ton$60.50 $59.78
High CV Thermal Cash Cost $/ton$39.47 $40.53
Met Realized $/ton (total)$104.22 $101.60
Met Cash Cost $/ton$95.93 $94.18
PRB Realized $/ton$14.69 $14.09
PRB Cash Cost $/ton$13.40 $13.04

Cash Flow and Capital Return KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($M)-$109.6 $220.2 $87.9
Free Cash Flow ($M)$49.1 $131.1 $38.9
Capital Expenditures ($M)$64.8 $89.2 $49.3
Share Repurchases ($M / shares)—$81.9 / ~1.2M $19.4 / ~0.271M
Dividend Declared—$0.10/sh (pay 9/15/25) $0.10/sh (pay 12/15/25)
Liquidity ($M)—$948.0 $995.4
Cash & Equivalents ($M)—$413.0 $444.7

Note: YoY comparisons are limited due to the January 2025 merger; management did not provide pro‑forma YoY in releases cited.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 release)Current Guidance (Q3 release)Change
Coking volume (Mt)FY20257.5–8.0 7.4–7.8 Lowered
High CV Thermal volume (Mt)FY202529.0–31.0 29.0–31.0 Maintained
PRB volume (Mt)FY202545.0–48.0 47.0–49.0 Raised
Met cash cost $/tonFY2025$95–$99 $93–$97 Lowered
High CV Thermal cash cost $/tonFY2025$38–$40 $39–$41 Raised
PRB cash cost $/tonFY2025$12.75–$13.25 $12.75–$13.25 Maintained
High CV Thermal committed/priced202529.8Mt @ $60–$62 30.0Mt @ $60–$61 Slight price range narrow
PRB committed/priced202547.8Mt @ $14.40 48.0Mt @ $14.46 Slight price uptick
Coking committed/priced20254.5Mt @ $118.20 6.0Mt @ $115.45 Higher volume, slightly lower price
Capital Expenditures ($M)FY2025$300–$330 $260–$290 Lowered
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization ($M)FY2025$560–$590 $575–$600 Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Leer South restartQ2: plan to recover/reposition longwall by end Oct; expected insurance >$100M [Seeking Alpha Q2 transcript: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4809085-core-natural-resources-inc-cnr-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript]Government shutdown delayed MSHA; team ready to mobilize; Q4 idle/fire costs $15–$25M Timing deferred; readiness reaffirmed
Contracting momentumQ2: improved 2025/2026 books; PRB fully committed 2025; ~33Mt PRB committed for 2026 ~26Mt new commitments; 2026: ~17Mt high‑CV thermal, ~40Mt PRB; ~0.5Mt domestic coking underway Strengthening, more 2026 visibility
PRB royalties/policyQ2: OBBBA law royalty rate cut benefits; pass‑through clauses noted QoQ realized prices and costs both down due to royalty cut and pass‑through; net margins supported Tailwind to margins/volumes
West Elk B‑SeamQ1/Q2: high‑CV thermal unit cost reduction QoQ; operational improvements Transition to thicker, higher‑quality B‑Seam to improve realizations and costs ahead Positive mix/efficiency
Data center power demandQ2 deck: AI/data center buildout driving US power demand Management reiterated AI/data center demand potential on call [Seeking Alpha Q3 transcript: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4839691-core-natural-resources-inc-cnr-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript]Structural thermal demand tailwind
REE/critical mineralsIntroduced in prior materials; evaluation ongoing Elevated REE/CM concentrations at PRB mines; moving to expanded drilling and potential RFP Advancing optionality

Management Commentary

  • “Looking ahead, we are sharply focused on achieving operational excellence across our entire mining portfolio… we believe the stage is set for Core to begin to deliver on its full potential as we approach 2026.” — Jimmy Brock, CEO/Chair .
  • “We expect continued robust free cash flow generation underpinned by rigorous cost control… synergy capture, the anticipated restart of the Leer South longwall, and strong contracted sales positions…” — Mitesh Thakkar, President & CFO .
  • On PRB/royalty and contracting: marketing entered commitments totaling ~26Mt at margins expected to be attractive; 2026 PRB ~40Mt; high‑CV thermal ~17Mt .
  • Leadership change: Brock appointed CEO on Oct 8, 2025, with transition support from former CEO Paul Lang, signaling continuity of integration and execution priorities .

Q&A Highlights

  • Contracts and visibility: Management emphasized ~26Mt of forward commitments and focus on filling 2026 book, enhancing revenue visibility into next year [Seeking Alpha Q3 transcript: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4839691-core-natural-resources-inc-cnr-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript].
  • Leer South: Restart readiness maintained; restart contingent on MSHA personnel availability; Q4 idle/fire costs reiterated at $15–$25M [Seeking Alpha Q3 transcript: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4839691-core-natural-resources-inc-cnr-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript].
  • Macro/theme: Management linked rising US power demand and data center growth to coal fleet utilization, benefiting PAMC and western operations [Seeking Alpha Q3 transcript: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4839691-core-natural-resources-inc-cnr-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript].
  • REE/CMs: Company advancing feasibility/RFP process after elevated concentrations found at PRB sites; engaging technology providers .

Estimates Context

Metric (S&P Global consensus)Q3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 ConsensusSurprise
Primary EPS$0.78*-$0.87*Beat
Revenue ($USD)$1,002.5M $1,027.5M*Miss

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global (GetEstimates). Note: S&P “Primary EPS” may differ from GAAP diluted EPS ($0.61) reported in press release .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • EPS beat largely reflects normalization vs deeply negative consensus and benefits from cost control and insurance proceeds; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.61 while S&P Primary EPS tracked at ~$0.78*, so be mindful of metric definitions when modeling . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Revenue headwind QoQ was driven by mix (high‑CV thermal), pass‑through royalty mechanics in PRB, and Leer South downtime; margins held as PRB realized costs fell with royalties and metallurgical cash costs improved .
  • 2025 guidance tilts more positive on PRB volumes and lower capex, but coking volumes trimmed and some cash cost ranges raised/adjusted; net effect is improved capital efficiency with focus on 2026 ramp .
  • Contracting momentum is a clear positive: 2026 book now substantial in PRB and high‑CV thermal; domestic met contracts (~0.5Mt) gaining traction, de‑risking pricing exposure into 2026 .
  • Leer South restart remains the critical near‑term catalyst; any acceleration or prolonged delay will swing met segment contribution and consolidated EBITDA in 2026 .
  • Policy/regulatory setup (royalty cuts, coal fleet support) and structural US power demand (data centers) provide medium‑term tailwinds for thermal segments; watch for utility burn and capacity factor trends .
  • REE/critical minerals optionality is advancing (drilling, potential RFP); not in near‑term numbers, but could unlock incremental value if commercialized .

Appendix: Additional Source Documents

  • Q3 2025 8‑K/Press Release and Earnings Supplement (full metrics, reconciliations) .
  • Q3 2025 Press Release (PR Newswire/Investor site) .
  • Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript (external) .
  • Q2 2025 8‑K/Press Release and KPIs .
  • Q1 2025 Press Release (baseline) [Investors PR: https://investors.corenaturalresources.com/2025-05-08-Core-Natural-Resources-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results].
  • Leadership Change (Oct 8, 2025) .