Executive Summary

Q4 2024 reflected legacy CONSOL Energy operating results pre-merger: revenue $595.3M, GAAP net income $30.8M ($1.04 diluted EPS), and adjusted EBITDA $170.0M as one-time items (1974 Plan indemnification, merger expenses) weighed on GAAP profitability .
Management announced a new capital return framework targeting ~75% of free cash flow to shareholders, with a $1.0B repurchase authorization and a sustaining $0.10 quarterly dividend; liquidity at merger close was $1.1B with $590M cash/short-term investments .
Operationally, Leer South re-entry and continuous miner development restarted ~one month after sealing; longwall production is expected to resume mid-year, shaping H2 met cost trajectory to “low $90s/ton” .
Near-term pricing remains soft (API2 and High-Vol A ~3-year lows), but Core’s thermal contracted book (24.0M priced at $61–$63/ton) and synergy capture ($110–$140M run-rate, ~one-third locked in within five weeks) support cash generation and integration momentum .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Rapid integration and synergy capture: strategies executed expected to yield >$40M annualized run-rate within five weeks; total synergy guidance $110–$140M with further upside from best practices and procurement .
Capital return and balance sheet flexibility: $1.0B buyback authorization; dividend initiated at $0.10; revolver upsized to $600M, maturity extended to 2029, interest reduced by 75 bps .
Leer South recovery trajectory: safe re-entry and resumed development with minimal equipment impact; longwall restart forecast mid-year, enabling H2 met cash costs in “low $90s/ton” .
- “The team’s great efforts have placed us well on track to resume longwall production mid-year…” — CEO Paul Lang .

What Went Wrong

Price headwinds: both API2 and High-Vol A coking coal near 3-year lows, pressuring realized pricing in met and thermal segments .
Q4 GAAP profitability impacted by one-time items; net income fell to $30.8M vs. prior quarters despite solid adjusted EBITDA ($170.0M) .
Chinese tariff on U.S. coal disrupted trade flows; multiple cargoes diverted from China to India, Egypt, Vietnam, increasing logistics complexity near term .

Financial Results

Consolidated Actuals vs Prior Quarters

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenue and Other Income ($M)	$501.1	$574.9	$595.3
GAAP Net Income ($M)	$58.1	$95.6	$30.8
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.96	$3.22	$1.04
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$124.5	$179.2	$170.0
EBITDA Margin (%)	24.9%	31.2%	28.6%
Net Income Margin (%)	11.6%	16.6%	5.2%

Notes: Margins computed from cited revenue, net income, and adjusted EBITDA.

Segment and Operating Detail (Q4 2024)

Metric	Q4 2024
PAMC Coal Revenue ($M)	$442.8
PAMC Tons Sold (M tons)	7.0
Avg Coal Revenue per Ton (PAMC)	$63.28
Avg Cash Cost per Ton (PAMC)	$36.46
Terminal Revenue ($M)	$27.458
Freight Revenue ($M)	$75.138
Other Income ($M)	$25.507

Estimate Comparison

Metric	Q4 2024 Consensus	Q4 2024 Actual
Revenue ($M)	N/A*	$595.3
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	N/A*	$170.0
Diluted EPS ($)	N/A*	$1.04

*Values retrieved from S&P Global — consensus data unavailable due to request limit.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Coking Sales Volume (M tons)	2025	N/A	7.5–8.0	New
Committed, Priced Coking (M tons; $/ton)	2025	N/A	1.5 at $135.82/ton	New
Avg Met Cash Cost ($/ton)	2025	N/A	$96–$100; H2 in low $90s	New
High C.V. Thermal Sales (M tons)	2025	N/A	29.0–31.0	New
Committed, Priced Thermal (M tons; $/ton)	2025	N/A	24.0 at $61–$63/ton	New
PRB Sales (M tons)	2025	N/A	36.0–40.0	New
PRB Committed, Priced (M tons; $/ton)	2025	N/A	36.9 at $14.78/ton	New
Capital Expenditures ($M)	2025	N/A	$300–$330	New
Cash-based SG&A ($M)	2025	N/A	$110–$125; LT ~ $90	New
Quarterly Dividend ($/share)	2025	N/A	$0.10	New
Capital Return Framework	Ongoing	N/A	~75% FCF to shareholders (majority buybacks)	New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Integration/Synergies	Merger progressing; PAMC contracted position improved	Merger progress on track by YE/Q1 close	~$40M run-rate unlocked in ~5 weeks; target $110–$140M, further upside	Accelerating
Pricing/Market Dynamics	Export constrained (FSK bridge); revenue $501.1M; mix aiding price	Total revenue $574.9M; pricing improved with record production	API2/High-Vol A near 3-year lows; thermal book supports; domestic market tightening	Softer prices, offset by contracts
Logistics/Trade Flows	FSK bridge disruption; alternative ports; higher transport cost	CMT rebound; shipments 4.7M tons	China tariff reroutes to India/Egypt/Vietnam; ability to reallocate volumes	Rebalanced
Leer South Operations	N/A	N/A	Sealed area; re-entry achieved; longwall restart mid-year	Recovery underway
Capital Allocation	Dividend ($0.25) at CEIX; buybacks ongoing	Dividend $0.25; strong FCF	75% FCF return, $1B buybacks, $0.10 dividend; net cash target	More aggressive

Management Commentary

“The centerpiece of this framework is the targeted return to shareholders of around 75 percent of free cash flow, with the significant majority of that return directed to share repurchases complemented by a sustaining quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share.” — CEO Paul Lang .
“We have already executed strategies that are expected to yield just over $40 million in synergies on an annualized run rate basis.” — CFO/President Mitesh Thakkar .
“We still fully expect to resume longwall mining by midyear… the mine's longwall equipment was largely unaffected by the event.” — CEO Paul Lang .
“The $61 to $63 feels comfortable in almost any scenario we can envision for those committed [thermal] volumes.” — Deck Slone .

Q&A Highlights

Met cost trajectory: Back-half met cash costs guided to low $90s/ton; potential additional improvements from synergies and procurement as systems integrate into 2026 .
Chinese tariff impact: Initial cargoes diverted; domestic and India demand filling gaps; team expects trade flows to realign without material volume loss .
Thermal pricing sensitivity: Thermal committed pricing range assumes ~API2 $110; sensitivity ~$0.13/ton across segment; power netback floors created $8M uplift in January .
Cash returns and balance sheet: Target to maintain net cash; approximate $200M debt with muni refinancings; deploy excess cash into repurchases opportunistically .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 revenue, EPS, and EBITDA was unavailable due to request limits; as a result, we cannot quantify beat/miss vs consensus. We anchor future estimate comparisons to S&P Global data when accessible.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Integration momentum and early synergy capture underpin confidence in ~$110–$140M run-rate savings; procurement/marketing/blending provide additional upside .
Thermal contracted book (24.0M priced at $61–$63/ton) and domestic market tightening mitigate near-term price softness; met volumes ramp post Leer South longwall restart mid-year .
The capital return framework (75% FCF to shareholders) plus $1.0B buyback authorization is a material stock-support catalyst, especially with management indicating net-cash posture and excess cash deployment .
Near-term headwinds include weak commodity prices and Leer South outage; H2 mix shift and cost normalization should improve met segment margin profile .
Liquidity and capital structure improved (revolver upsized; muni bonds remarketing plan), preserving flexibility to fund operations, synergies, and shareholder returns through a volatile price environment .
Watch for: confirmation of Leer South longwall restart timing, further synergy disclosures, thermal pricing realizations (API2/power netbacks), and contracting progress across met/thermal portfolios .

Appendix: Additional Financial Detail

Q4 2024 Cash Flow and Liquidity

Operating cash flow $121.3M; capex $(40.8)M; financing cash outflow $(13.1)M; quarter-end cash and equivalents $447.5M .
Liquidity at merger closing: $1.1B (cash/short-term investments $590M), revolver $600M (maturity 2029, −75 bps), $98.1M purchase of Arch tax-exempt bonds for later remarketing .

PAMC Cost Reconciliation (Q4 2024)

Avg cash cost per ton $36.46; avg cost per ton $43.16; 7.0M tons sold; cash cost of coal sold $255.2M .

Market Dynamics (Management View)

API2 and High-Vol A ~3-year lows; long-term met demand supported by SEA blast furnace additions and higher Indian/Chinese imports; supply constrained ~40M tons below peak (Australia/US/Canada), potentially inducing rationalization among high-cost producers .

Citations:
8-K and Exhibit press release ; Q4 press release ; Leer South event press release ; Refinancing press release ; Q3 press release ; Q2 press release .

Footnote: *S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus data unavailable due to request limit; will update when accessible.

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