C&
COHEN & STEERS, INC. (CNS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered sequential revenue growth and margin expansion: total revenue $139.8M (+4.9% QoQ) and GAAP operating margin 35.3% (vs 33.7% in Q3) with diluted EPS $0.89 and as-adjusted EPS $0.78 .
- Second consecutive quarter of firm-wide net inflows ($860M), though ending AUM fell to $85.8B (-6.5% QoQ) on market depreciation; average AUM rose to $89.4B, supporting fee revenue growth .
- Management highlighted Q4 headwinds (risk-free yields up; listed real assets down) but reiterated long-term outperformance and sees multiple catalysts: active ETFs launching in Q1 2025, distribution alpha focus, and improving pipeline activity despite expected $800M redemptions in H1 2025 .
- 2025 guidance: compensation ratio ~40.5%, G&A +6–7% YoY, effective tax rate ~25.3%; liquidity ended Q4 at ~$361M; board raised quarterly dividend to $0.62 in Q1 2025 (from $0.59) as a positive capital return signal .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Second straight quarter of net inflows ($860M), led by ~$1.2B open-end fund inflows, with fee-bearing average AUM up to $89.4B; net inflows helped revenue and margin expansion despite market pressure .
- Management emphasized durable performance: 95%/96%/97%/99% of AUM outperforming benchmarks over 1/3/5/10-year periods and strong excess returns, supporting share gains and stable fee rates (~58bps) .
- Strategic momentum: launch of three active ETFs in Q1 2025 across U.S. REITs, Preferreds, and Natural Resources; focus on growing distribution alpha and RIA channel penetration .
Selected quotes:
- “We expect to launch 3 active ETFs in the first quarter of this year… Our initial distribution focus will be with RIAs” — Joseph Harvey .
- “Our operating margin was 35.5%… revenue for Q4 increased 4.9% sequentially to $139.9 million” — Raja Dakkuri (as-adjusted) .
- “We are delivering alpha consistently for our clients” — Joseph Harvey .
What Went Wrong
- Ending AUM declined to $85.8B (-6.5% QoQ) on ~$6.1B market depreciation and ~$697M distributions; regional strategy weakness in global/international real estate (-12.9% QoQ) and institutional AUM (-9.0% QoQ) .
- Q4 listed real assets fell: U.S. REITs -8.2% and global listed infrastructure -5.7% as real rates rose; outperformance batting average softened in the quarter .
- Non-operating income fell sharply vs Q3 (+$6.4M in Q4 vs $22.7M in Q3) driven by investment losses and FX; GAAP effective tax rate printed 21.7% due to discrete items, creating a gap to guided operational tax rate (25.3%) .
Financial Results
GAAP Results (Income Statement)
Key drivers:
- Sequential revenue +4.9% and operating margin expansion to 35.3% on higher average AUM and $1.4M performance fees .
- Non-operating income declined ($6.4M in Q4 vs $22.7M in Q3) on lower investment gains and favorable FX in Q4 .
As-Adjusted Results (Non-GAAP)
Adjustments include seed investment impacts, FX, accelerated RSU vesting, lease transition costs, and discrete tax items .
Revenue Mix (Q4 vs Q3 2024)
Expenses (Q4 vs Q3 2024)
Notes: Distribution and service fees rose with higher average AUM in U.S. open-end funds; G&A rose on travel and business development .
KPIs and AUM
AUM drivers: $6.1B market depreciation and $697M distributions in Q4; net inflows offset part of market impact .
Guidance Changes
Clarification: GAAP effective tax rate printed 21.7% in Q4 due to discrete items; operational guidance remains ~25.3% going forward .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic positioning: “We believe macro conditions plus valuations should favor our asset classes… We see improvements in tax and regulatory conditions and underlying business confidence” — Joseph Harvey .
- Capitalizing on trends: “We believe listed infrastructure complements private… access to themes such as AI, power generation and data centers” — Joseph Harvey .
- Product roadmap: “We expect to launch 3 active ETFs in the first quarter… an active U.S. REIT, preferred stock, and natural resources equity strategy” — Joseph Harvey .
- Operating discipline: “Our operating margin was 35.5%… effective fee rate… 58 basis points… Compensation ratio just below 40.5%” — Raja Dakkuri .
- Outlook on flows/redemptions: “We have indicated redemptions now around $800 million… about $200 million already occurred before year-end” — Joseph Harvey .
Q&A Highlights
- Wealth channel dynamics: Strong RIA-led interest in U.S. REITs; preferreds facing competition from private credit; expectation that rate sensitivity of flows will moderate over time .
- Active ETFs rollout: Focused on RIAs initially; educational push leveraging high share in open-end REITs and preferreds; cautious on cannibalization risk .
- Operating leverage: Margin progression contingent on markets and organic growth; investments for ETFs/private real estate embedded in 2025 comp/G&A guidance .
- Redemptions clarity: ~$800M expected H1 2025; ~ $200M occurred in Q4; reflects reallocations to private and lineup changes .
- International footprint: Expanded offices; targeting Asia ex-Japan adoption; ongoing support for Japan subadvisory partner .
- M&A posture: Focus on organic growth; strong balance sheet to seed vehicles; acquisitions not core but could be opportunistic if strategically additive .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates for CNS Q4 2024 EPS and revenue were unavailable to us at the time of analysis due to data access limitations (SPGI request limit exceeded). As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus Street for this quarter [functions.GetEstimates error].
- Given sequential revenue +4.9% and margin expansion, sell-side models may modestly raise forward revenue run-rate assumptions tied to average AUM and distribution fees, while non-operating items (investment/FX) likely introduce greater variance in EPS modeling .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q4 delivered healthy sequential operating momentum: revenue +4.9% QoQ; GAAP margin up ~160 bps; as-adjusted EPS up 1c QoQ — supported by higher average AUM and performance fees .
- Flows re-inflected: second straight quarter of net inflows ($860M), but market depreciation drove ending AUM down to $85.8B — monitor Q1 market path for AUM recovery .
- Near-term headwind: ~$800M institutional redemptions expected in H1 2025; offset will depend on wealth/RIA inflows and ETF traction .
- Catalysts: Launch of three active ETFs (REITs, Preferreds, Natural Resources) in Q1 2025 and dividend increase to $0.62 highlight product expansion and capital return confidence .
- Expense discipline: 2025 comp ratio steady at ~40.5% and G&A +6–7% YoY underpin stable operating framework; FX/investment marks remain swing factors for EPS .
- Strategic narrative: Management is leaning into distribution alpha, RIA channel penetration, and listed-plus-private real assets; secular themes (AI/data centers/power demand) support infrastructure and natural resources positioning .
- Watchlist: Fee rate stability (~58bps), open-end fund inflows in U.S. REITs, preferreds competitiveness vs private credit, and Asia/Japan adoption trajectory .