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Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. (COCP)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 narrowed losses on materially lower operating expenses; net loss was $(2.30)M with EPS of $(0.23), a significant beat versus consensus EPS of $(0.505), and continued zero product revenue as the company remains pre-revenue .
  • Cash declined to $6.92M at March 31 from $9.86M at December 31 as operating cash burn improved year over year ($2.9M vs $4.5M), extending but not eliminating near-term funding needs .
  • Pipeline momentum: CDI-988 showed superior in vitro activity against emergent norovirus GII.17 variants; management plans a U.S. human challenge study “in the coming months,” and expects Phase 1 high-dose topline in Q2 2025, maintaining prior timelines .
  • Influenza program CC-42344 continues, with prior quarter noting low infection rates that limited efficacy readout and a plan to extend the challenge study; Q1 2025 introduced the possibility of a second challenge study in forward-looking commentary .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • EPS beat driven by tighter cost control: Q1 R&D fell to $1.36M (vs $2.95M YoY) and G&A to $0.98M (vs $1.21M YoY), bringing total OpEx to $2.34M (vs $4.16M YoY) and EPS to $(0.23), ahead of $(0.505)* consensus .*
    • Norovirus program validation: CDI-988 demonstrated superior broad-spectrum activity against GII.17 and GII.4 strains; management emphasized its potential as first-in-class treatment and prophylaxis and reiterated near-term human challenge initiation .
    • Cash burn improved YoY: Net cash used in operations improved to $2.9M from $4.5M, reflecting disciplined spend while advancing clinical milestones .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Funding overhang persists: Cash fell to $6.92M with working capital of $6.90M; forward-looking statements highlight the need for additional capital to fund operations over the next 12 months .
    • Influenza timeline friction: Prior update flagged “unexpectedly low infection” in the Phase 2a challenge study, requiring an extension and potentially additional cost; Q1 added the possibility of a second challenge, implying added time and expense .
    • No commercial revenue or margins; operational leverage remains untested pending clinical readouts and regulatory progression .

Financial Results

Income statement and EPS comparisons

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.00 (no revenue reported) $0.00 (no revenue reported) $0.00 (no revenue reported)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$2.95 $3.24 $1.36
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$1.21 $1.80 $0.98
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$4.16 $5.04 $2.34
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(3.96) $(4.94) $(2.30)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.39) $(0.49) $(0.23)
Gross Margin %n/a (pre-revenue)n/a (pre-revenue)n/a (pre-revenue)

Balance sheet and liquidity

MetricDec 31, 2024Mar 31, 2025
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)$9.86 $6.92
Working Capital ($USD Millions)$9.20 $6.90
Total Assets ($USD Millions)$13.46 $10.66
Total Liabilities ($USD Millions)$3.93 $3.36
Common Shares Outstanding (Millions)10.174 10.174

Cash flow

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Net Cash Used in Operating Activities ($USD Millions)$4.50 $2.90

Estimates versus actuals

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual# of Estimates
EPS ($)$(0.505)*$(0.23) 2*
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.00*$0.00 (pre-revenue) 2*

Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown / KPIs

  • No reportable revenue segments or commercial KPIs; pipeline status summarized under Guidance and Themes .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
CDI-988 Phase 1 (high-dose topline)Q2 2025“Expect to report topline… in the second quarter of 2025” (FY24 update) “Expect to report topline… in the second quarter of 2025” (reiterated) Maintained
CDI-988 Norovirus human challenge start2025“Plan to initiate… in the U.S. in 2025” “Plan to initiate… in the coming months” Narrowed timing/advanced
CC-42344 Phase 2a influenza challenge2024–2025Extend study due to low infection; continue challenge; optimism on IND path (prior) Forward-looking note re: potential second challenge study; no new timing Maintained/unclear timing
Cash runwayNext 12 months“Expect cash sufficient to fund planned programs through the coming 12 months” (Q3 2024) Not updated in Q1 2025 release; cash/working capital disclosed Not updated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was found in the filing window. Themes below reflect disclosures across Q3 2024, FY 2024, and Q1 2025 press materials.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, FY 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Norovirus CDI-988 efficacy and timingPhase 1 underway; topline late ’24/early ’25; broad activity incl. GII.4 Superior in vitro activity vs GII.17 and GII.4; human challenge “coming months”; Phase 1 high-dose topline Q2 ’25 Positive momentum
Influenza CC-42344 (PB2 inhibitor)Expected Phase 2a topline by YE’24; Pre-IND feedback improved clarity YE’24 topline not achieved; low infection rates led to extension; potential second challenge study referenced Timeline slip; execution risk
Regulatory pathFDA Pre-IND feedback on late-stage influenza study (greater clarity) No new regulatory updates disclosedStable
R&D execution/cost disciplineR&D $3.24M; OpEx $5.04M (Q3’24) R&D $1.36M; OpEx $2.34M (Q1’25) Spend reduced
Macro/supply chain/CRO riskSupply chain, CRO recruitment and macro risks highlighted Similar risk set reiterated (capital needs, tariffs, geopolitical, CRO/CMO) Unchanged

Management Commentary

  • “Our oral pan-viral protease inhibitor CDI-988 is a potential breakthrough first-in-class treatment and prophylaxis for norovirus… with exceptional in vitro activity… We’re preparing to launch a U.S. human challenge study in the coming months.” – Sam Lee, Ph.D., President & co-CEO .
  • “We’re advancing development of these assets for multibillion-dollar markets while remaining committed to a capital-efficient business model to maximize shareholder value.” – James Martin, CFO & co-CEO .
  • “We… determined the first crystal structure of GII.17 protease and demonstrated broad-spectrum antiviral activity of CDI-988 against newly circulating major norovirus GII.17 variants.” – Sam Lee, Ph.D. .
  • FY24 context: “Unexpected low infection rate… precluded us from obtaining meaningful human efficacy data [for CC-42344]; we plan to continue the influenza challenge study.” – Sam Lee, Ph.D. .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available in the filings; therefore, no Q&A themes or clarifications could be reviewed for this period [Results of transcript search: none found 4/1–6/30/2025].

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 EPS of $(0.23) beat consensus $(0.505)* on cost reductions versus prior year; revenue remains $0.00 as expected for a pre-revenue pipeline company .*
  • With spend trending lower and near-term clinical catalysts (CDI-988 Phase 1 high-dose topline; human challenge start), estimate revisions may reflect improved near-term EPS/EBITDA loss trajectories, tempered by funding risk and influenza study timing .*

Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term catalysts: CDI-988 Phase 1 high-dose topline in Q2 2025 and initiation of a U.S. human norovirus challenge “in the coming months” are the primary stock drivers; positive data could accelerate partnering or capital access .
  • Cost discipline is evident; Q1 OpEx down ~44% YoY and cash burn improved YoY, supporting a leaner path to upcoming readouts .
  • Funding remains the central risk; management’s forward-looking language explicitly flags the need for additional capital within 12 months—watch for financing strategy and potential dilution .
  • Influenza program execution risk persists after low infection rates in the challenge study; a second challenge could add time and expense but may be necessary to demonstrate efficacy .
  • Scientific validation strengthens the norovirus thesis (GII.17/GII.4 coverage, first GII.17 protease crystal structure), positioning CDI-988 as a potentially first-in-class oral agent with prophylaxis potential in high-transmission settings .
  • Absent revenue and margins, stock sensitivity will hinge on data quality, study initiation timing, and financing terms; traders should monitor press flow around study starts/readouts and any partnership announcements .
  • If Q2 topline or challenge initiation slips, estimate optimism may fade; however, maintained timelines this quarter reduce timing uncertainty for now .

Footnotes and sources:

  • Q1 2025 8-K earnings press release and financial tables .
  • FY 2024 results press release (cash/working capital baseline; pipeline timelines) .
  • Q3 2024 8-K (prior quarter operating baseline) .
  • Norovirus CDI-988 activity press release (GII.17/GII.4, structure-based validation) .
  • Forward-looking risk disclosures (capital needs, macro/CRO/CMO risks) .