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Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. (COCP)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered a narrower net loss ($2.06M; -$0.20 EPS), driven by sharply lower R&D expense as clinical timing shifted; the company remains pre-revenue .
  • EPS beat consensus by $0.10 (actual -$0.20 vs -$0.30 est; 3 estimates), while revenue was in line with the consensus expectation of $0.00 given development-stage status .
  • Management highlighted favorable Phase 1 safety/tolerability for CDI-988 and plans to initiate a U.S. Phase 1b norovirus human challenge study in 2025, reinforcing the clinical catalyst path for the year .
  • Cautionary disclosure reiterated the need for additional capital over the next 12 months and macro risks (tariffs, supply chain/geopolitics), a key overhang for near-term equity performance .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Favorable Phase 1 safety/tolerability for CDI-988 across dose cohorts, including high-dose 1200 mg, supporting advancement to a U.S. Phase 1b challenge study in 2025 (“Preparations are underway…”), positioning norovirus as the lead value driver .
  • Clear market framing for norovirus: 685M global cases and ~$60B annual worldwide economic impact, underscoring a significant unmet need and commercial opportunity .
  • Cost discipline and timing reduced quarterly R&D to $1.1M from $4.3M YoY, materially narrowing net loss and EPS versus prior-year Q2 .

What Went Wrong

  • Influenza CC-42344 Phase 2a human challenge study requires extension given unexpectedly low infection rates, delaying the path to meaningful human efficacy data .
  • Cash decreased to $4.8M at 6/30/25 (from $9.9M at 12/31/24), and management reiterated the need for additional capital to fund operations over the next 12 months, which may weigh on equity sentiment .
  • Ongoing macro risks (tariffs, supply chain, geopolitical conflicts) and execution dependencies (CRO/CMO, volunteer recruitment) remain active constraints on timelines and costs .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)———
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$4.31 $1.36 $1.12
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$1.14 $0.98 $0.99
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$5.45 $2.34 $2.11
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$5.34 $2.30 $2.06
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.53 -$0.23 -$0.20
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)$9.86 (12/31/24) $6.92 (3/31/25) $4.77 (6/30/25)

Notes:

  • Cocrystal reported no product revenue during these periods; financials reflect operating expenses and other income/expense lines typical of development-stage biotech .
  • Working capital was $4.9M and shares outstanding were 10.2M at 6/30/25 .

Estimates vs Actuals (Wall Street Consensus – S&P Global):

MetricConsensusActual
EPS (Q2 2025)-$0.30-$0.20
Revenue (Q2 2025)$0.00—

Coverage breadth:

MetricQ2 2025 # of Estimates
EPS3
Revenue3

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Norovirus CDI-988 study plan2025“Initiate a human challenge study in the coming months” (Q1 release) “Initiate U.S. Phase 1b human challenge study in 2025” Maintained; timing specified
CDI-988 Phase 1 topline (high-dose)Q2 2025“Expect topline high-dose healthy subject results in Q2 2025” Reported favorable safety/tolerability across doses including 1200 mg (presented Aug 2025) Delivered (safety/tolerability)
Influenza CC-42344 (Phase 2a challenge)2024–2025Extend study due to unexpectedly low infection Plan to continue and initiate a second human challenge study Continued/expanded
Financial guidance (rev/margins/OpEx)2025None providedNone providedMaintained (no financial guidance)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was found; the company communicated via press releases and Form 8-K filings .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Norovirus program (CDI-988)Expect Q2’25 high-dose topline; plan human challenge study in 2025 Favorable Phase 1 safety/tolerability; plan U.S. Phase 1b challenge study 2025 Execution progressing; clarity improved
Influenza (CC-42344)Extend Phase 2a challenge due to low infection; continue study Continue and plan second human challenge study Path extended; timeline elongated
Macro/tariffs/supply chain/geopoliticsHighlighted as risk factors (capital needs, supply chain, tariffs, geopolitics) Reiterated risks (capital needs within 12 months, tariffs, supply chain) Ongoing headwinds
R&D execution/costsYoY R&D down; capital-efficient model emphasized R&D down sharply YoY; net loss narrower Cost discipline sustained
Regulatory/legalOngoing regulatory pathway; no specific financial guidance Path to U.S. Phase 1b challenge study; no financial guidance Regulatory steps advancing
Market framingNorovirus unmet need and market size emphasized Reinforced 685M cases, ~$60B cost Consistent narrative strength

Management Commentary

  • “Preparations are underway for a Phase 1b norovirus challenge study to evaluate our potent, oral antiviral candidate CDI-988 as a prophylaxis and treatment.” – Sam Lee, Ph.D., President and co-CEO .
  • “We are encouraged by the favorable safety and tolerability results from our Phase 1 study with CDI-988.” – Sam Lee .
  • “The absence of any approved norovirus treatments or vaccines creates a substantial market opportunity… With 685 million global cases annually and a $60 billion worldwide economic impact…” – James Martin, CFO and co-CEO .
  • CC-42344 influenza path: company plans to continue the challenge study and initiate a second human challenge, following unexpectedly low infection rates in prior Phase 2a efforts .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript or Q&A was available; disclosures were via press release and Form 8-K .

Estimates Context

  • EPS beat: -$0.20 actual vs -$0.30 consensus (3 estimates), driven by lower R&D and operating expenses; non-GAAP adjustments were not disclosed .
  • Revenue in line: pre-revenue stage matched $0.00 consensus (3 estimates).
  • Given clinical timing and cost phasing, consensus may modestly adjust near-term EPS trajectory as OpEx cadence normalizes around study initiations.
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term clinical catalyst: U.S. Phase 1b norovirus human challenge study initiation in 2025; favorable Phase 1 safety/tolerability de-risks early-stage safety and supports advancement .
  • Norovirus opportunity is large and under-addressed (685M cases; ~$60B global cost), positioning CDI-988 for meaningful optionality if efficacy is demonstrated .
  • Cost discipline narrowed losses and delivered an EPS beat versus consensus; watch the OpEx cadence as trials start/expand .
  • Cash declined to $4.8M at 6/30/25; management explicitly notes the need for additional capital within 12 months—financing risk is a key equity driver .
  • Influenza CC-42344 timeline elongated due to low infection rates in the challenge model; path continues with a second study planned, delaying efficacy visibility .
  • Macro risks (tariffs, supply chain, geopolitics) remain active; execution and CRO/CMO/vendor reliability are pivotal to timelines .
  • Trading setup: clinical readouts and study initiations are likely to be stock catalysts; financing announcements and regulatory milestones will shape the near-term narrative .