Cohu - Earnings Call - Q1 2019

Transcript

Speaker 0

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Cohu Incorporated First Quarter twenty nineteen Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

I would now like to introduce your host for today's presentation, Mr. Rich Eugenian, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, please begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Howard. Good afternoon, and welcome to our conference call to discuss Cohu's first quarter fiscal year twenty nineteen results and second quarter outlook. I'm joined today by our President and CEO, Luis Mueller and our Vice President of Finance and CFO, Jeff Jones. If you need a copy of our earnings release, you may access it from our website at www.cohu.com or by contacting Cohu Investor Relations. There is also a slide presentation accompanying today's call that may be accessed through the webcast link on Cohu's website and is also posted as a PDF in the Investor Relations section.

Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call concludes. For your information, Cohu will be participating in the following investor conference: the B. Riley FBR Annual Investor Conference on May 22 in Los Angeles, California Cowen's forty seventh Annual TMT Conference on May 30 in New York and Baird's twenty nineteen Global Consumer Technology and Services Conference on June 6 in New York. Now to the Safe Harbor. During the course of this conference call, we will make forward looking statements reflecting management's current expectations concerning the company's future business.

These statements are based on current information that we've assessed, but which by its nature is subject to rapid and even abrupt changes. We encourage you to review the forward looking statements section of the slide presentation in the earnings release as well as filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the most recently filed Form 10 ks, Form 10 Q and registration statement on Form S-four. Our comments speak only as of today, 05/06/2019, and Cohu assumes no obligation to update these statements as a result of developments occurring after this call. Finally, during the call today, we will also discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings release and slide presentation for a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measures.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Luis Mueller, who's President and CEO. Luis? Thanks, Rich, and good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On today's call, I'll discuss the current business environment and share an update on

Speaker 2

the long term vision for the company and near term integration synergies. Test cell utilization has bottomed at about 80%, but more importantly, OSAT utilization has started to rise again, reflecting strengthening conditions in mobility. At the same time, several IDMs linked to automotive and industrial markets recorded a slight decline in test utilization in the first quarter. At 80%, we expect that customers will look to add capacity once they start to see their internal forecasts turn positive. Market conditions appear to have stabilized in the first quarter and we're forecasting some segments to start improving in Q2 and continue into the second half of the year.

And this is particularly true for mobility that has been weak since last fall. We have received volume handler orders in April for testing application processors and we are expecting new demand for test and inspection of RF devices and test of LCD drivers later this quarter. Additionally, we forecast new tester, handler and contactor demand in the third and fourth quarter to support a global communications infrastructure project where Cohu's platforms have been qualified to test a new generation of semiconductors. The continued strength in data center, cloud and AI is reflected in our recurring revenues as well as orders for PCB test equipment. Now countering this strength, the consumer IoT, IOV and optoelectronics as well as the industrial markets lost momentum early this year.

In the meantime, automotive that has been Cohu's largest market segment and a major contributor to our growth over the last three years had an increase in system bookings in the first quarter. While our customers' forecast across these end markets are muted in the near term, the fundamentals remain strong for increasing vehicle electrification, growth in automotive ADAS, increasing industrial automation and moreover, the deployment of five gs communications that will have a significant positive impact in the industry. Near term, much of the five gs related business will come from building out the infrastructure and communications network over the next three years. We expect opportunities for test and inspection of five semiconductors going into mobile devices in 2020, and that should ramp into high volume starting in 2021. Using the deployment of the last standard as a reference, we expect five gs communications related demand to expand for over five years.

More importantly, five gs will extend beyond handsets to the automotive, industrial, consumer and data center markets by truly enabling autonomous vehicles, robotics, edge computing, a vast proliferation of sensing communication, data processing capabilities and much more. We expect that this would translate into a significant increase in semiconductor content across the industry. And Cohu is planning to be at the forefront of this wave delivering the entire solution to customers enabling time to yield and volume production. We're not just a handler tester contactor company, we are actually uniquely positioned to deliver best in class test and inspection solutions to our customers' challenges. Now having defined and communicated the consolidated handler roadmap, we're now investing in next generation platforms that will deliver improved customer value and when utilized in conjunction with our testers and interface products, a new generation vision capabilities for package inspection.

We're working with multiple customers on refining product specifications and believe these have the potential to add 15,000,000 to $30,000,000 a year of incremental revenue over the midterm that we define as the next three to five years. In parallel, we're focused on completing the integration of Cohu and Xcerra contactor manufacturing capabilities over the next six to nine months, which should deliver meaningful improvement in consolidated gross margin starting in 2020. This business is obviously not immune to the weakness in the automotive and industrial markets, but the impact of an industry wide slowdown on contactor revenue is typically one third of the impact on the capital equipment businesses. Offsetting this weakness was the strength of our new high performance products that are becoming the reference solution for millimeter wave, over the air and high signal performance applications. We continue to model contactor revenue growth this year driven by our XWave solution and overall increase in contactor attachment rate with our handler sales.

We have the opportunity to grow our contactor business to upwards of $300,000,000 over the long term. The contactor business accounted for 19% of total sales in the first quarter and is a significant contributor to what we refer to as recurring revenue. Our semiconductor test business represents approximately 20% to 25% of consolidated revenue. We're the leader in RF front end module test and expect to derive substantial benefit from five gs deployment over the next few years. We're in the process of finalizing strategies to grow certain niche market positions into mainstream businesses where we can become successful as a platform solution to our customers.

We expect the successful execution of these plans can generate 50,000,000 to $100,000,000 a year of incremental revenue over the mid term. Our PCB test business had a strong quarter driven by momentum in the server, networking and communications markets consistent with our semiconductor businesses. While closely monitoring market conditions, we're very much focused on the things we can control. Last quarter, we talked about achieving an annual run rate cost synergy of $20,000,000 by end of this year. We made significant progress in this past quarter finalizing a restructuring plan in April for our Germany operation, which will deliver $10,000,000 a year in cost synergies.

Combining this with the already achieved $9,000,000 announced on the day of the transaction closed, announced plans to consolidate and close operations in California and Malaysia later this year and going to a direct sales and support model for all semiconductor test products in China and Taiwan, we are now projecting to achieve $40,000,000 in annual run rate cost synergies by the 2019. This is a significant acceleration of our original plan and one that will progressively benefit the P and L as we move through this year. Jeff will share more details on these various cost synergies and how we model the business going forward at different revenue levels. As mentioned, our focus is primarily on things we can control like accelerating synergy savings and developing best in class solutions for test and inspection. I'm very optimistic about our future because I believe that Cohu is only a couple of quarters away from achieving a substantial transformation of the P and L that will drive increased profitability and cash flow generation.

Furthermore, we have already aligned products and roadmaps to position Cohu to benefit from significant trends in five gs and secular expansion in automotive and industrial markets. I would like now to turn the call over to Jeff to review our first quarter results, explain our new business model and provide second quarter guidance.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks, Luis. Today, I'll start by reviewing our Q1 results, which delivered higher than anticipated sales and gross margin due to a better than expected contribution from recurring revenue. We believe the first quarter represents the low point of the cycle, and as Luis indicated, we're gaining confidence for a stronger second half. I'll also review our progress in accelerating our planned synergies from the acquisition of Xcerra and a significant milestone achieved that will have a beneficial impact on our business this year.

Next, I'll review our business model for 2020 and beyond, including expected profitability at different revenue levels. Finally, I'll provide our second quarter guidance. Please note that my comments that follow all refer to non GAAP figures. For GAAP to non GAAP reconciliations and disclosures, please see the accompanying investor presentation. For Q1, the GAAP to non GAAP adjustments include approximately $3,700,000 of stock based compensation expense.

The GAAP to non GAAP adjustments primarily driven by the Aksera acquisition include $10,000,000 of purchased intangible amortization expense, 7,300,000.0 of inventory and property plant and equipment step up costs and $1,800,000 of restructuring costs including $400,000 of inventory written off to cost of sales. The Q1 twenty nineteen net cash impact of these items is approximately $2,000,000 related primarily to employee severance. On Q1 revenue of $147,800,000 which we expect represents the bottom of this cycle, we generated non GAAP operating income of $5,800,000 or approximately 4% of sales. After interest expense and the tax provision, Cohu had a non GAAP EPS loss of $03 At roughly $148,000,000 in sales and approximately $3,000,000 of realized synergies in Q1, we generated $9,700,000 or 6.6% of adjusted EBITDA. Cohu delivered approximately $4,700,000 of cash from operations during the first quarter and our cash balance was $160,000,000 at the end of Q1.

One customer in data center cloud and AI accounted for 11% of Q1 sales. No other customer accounted for 10% or more of sales in the quarter. Q1 gross margin was 41.5% and higher than our guidance of 40% due primarily to favorable product mix because of higher recurring revenue. Operating expenses were higher than forecasted primarily from sales commissions due to a change in customer mix and a loss on the sale of fixed assets in Japan that occurred near the end of Q1. The effective tax rate is not meaningful at pre tax levels near breakeven.

As we've discussed previously, most of Cohu's operations and related profits are generated and taxed outside of The U. S. Additionally, when The U. S. Operation generates losses as it did in Q1, there is no tax benefit to offset the foreign tax expense because of our deferred tax asset valuation allowance.

As a result, in Q1, we recorded tax expense on foreign profits without any benefit from The U. S. Loss, driving our small non GAAP pre tax profit to an after tax loss. Now turning to cost synergies and our business model. Since the close of the Exera acquisition, we've been aggressively pursuing committed cost synergies.

In April, we finalized the plan and began restructuring Excerra's Rosenheim, Germany operation, essentially pulling forward cost synergies into 2019 ahead of the original target. This restructuring is a major component of the second $20,000,000 synergies we originally anticipated achieving in a three to five year period. The result is that by the end of this calendar year, we expect to deliver $40,000,000 in annual run rate cost synergies that will favorably impact the business model going into 2020. This annual cost synergy is split approximately $20,000,000 in cost of goods sold and $20,000,000 in operating expense savings. We're now modeling the business at several revenue levels inclusive of the impact of the $40,000,000 cost synergy that we expect to achieve when exiting this calendar year.

And as a point of reference, the pro form a 2018 revenue for Cohu combined with Xcerra was approximately $778,000,000 or about $194,000,000 per quarter. The business model shows the opportunity for strong profit and cash generation at this revenue level once all synergy savings are in place. Our long term capital allocation strategy continues to be maintain approximately $125,000,000 of cash on the balance sheet to support operations, capital expenditures and the dividend. Our plan is that cash generated in excess of $125,000,000 will be used to pay down the debt of $357,000,000 and delever the company subject to business conditions and the cash required to achieve the synergies and support an eventual business ramp. For the balance of 2019, we're projecting cash payments of approximately $20,000,000 in order to achieve the targeted synergies.

Cohu's Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $06 per share payable on July 2639 to shareholders of record on June 1439. For second quarter twenty nineteen guidance, we're expecting sales to be in the range of 150,000,000 to $160,000,000 Revenue distribution is expected to be 92% semiconductor test and inspection and 8% PCB test. Gross margin is expected to be approximately 40%. The lower gross margin quarter over quarter is due to projected lower margin handler product mix for the mobility market. Operating expenses are expected to be approximately 54,000,000 The cost synergies of approximately $4,000,000 or about $17,000,000 on an annualized basis are included in the Q2 guidance.

We expect adjusted EBITDA to be approximately 7% at the midpoint of guidance. And we're projecting the Q2 non GAAP tax provision to be similar in total to the Q1 non GAAP amount. For modeling purposes, we expect a normalized effective tax rate of approximately 22% on revenue of $170,000,000 or more and profits in line with the business model. The diluted share count for Q2 is expected to be approximately 41,500,000.0 shares. And that concludes our prepared remarks and now we'll open the call to questions.

Speaker 0

Our first question or comment comes from the line of Tom Diffely from D. A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Yes. Good afternoon. So first a quick question on the accelerated cost reduction program. The when you actually went through the process of accelerating that, that increased the cost to you of doing those reductions?

Speaker 3

No, they're largely the same, Tom, as we've been forecasting in previous quarters.

Speaker 4

Okay. And I guess along the same lines, when you look at some of the programs that take longer to do, does that mean that the mid term cost reduction is above $40,000,000 now?

Speaker 3

So we're taking a look at that and we do believe that there are some, I'd say single digit million dollar opportunities available beyond 40,000,000 But for now, as you can imagine, we're focused on ensuring that we achieve the cost synergies by the end of the year and then we're going to continue to monitor further opportunities over the midterm.

Speaker 4

Okay. And just to clarify, last quarter you said that there were two facilities you were closing. The Germany plant is the third facility then?

Speaker 3

That would be the third, yes. The two that I mentioned previously would be Penang and then we have a facility in California as well.

Speaker 2

This is Luis. Just to clarify a little bit in Germany, what we're doing is we're consolidating with the operation that Cohu already had in Germany. So we're closing a facility, but we're not closing operations in Germany. We're just consolidating.

Speaker 4

Okay. That makes sense. And then looking at the business trends, it sounds like the mobility is getting a little stronger here. It's a little unclear. Were there crosscurrents in the automotive industry?

Or do you see that clearly recovering at this point as well?

Speaker 2

There has been a bit of an uptick in the first quarter in the automotive orders, I should say. But with that said, I think we look at automotive as increasing sort of step by step progress over the through the year. But no, we don't see a hockey stick improvement in automotive.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then finally, when you look at the contactor opportunity, does the acceleration of your cost cutting do anything either positive or negative to kind of the outlook for the contactor growth?

Speaker 3

In terms of profitability, yes, Tom, but I think you're probably referring to revenue synergies and the cost cutting won't have an impact on that. We have other strategies in place and we've talked about on prior calls increasing the attach rate for the, call it the legacy Cohu handler. So we're still pursuing those opportunities and we're still excited about those.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Well, I look forward to modeling this new slicker model. Appreciate

Speaker 3

it. Okay. All right. Thanks, Tom.

Speaker 0

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Brian Chin from Stifel. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for letting us ask a few questions and congratulations on the hard work to kind of get to this point in terms of the cost model. That's actually my first question also following up on Tom's questions. Just to kind of rewind here to make sure that we are clear. So as of the March earnings call, 20,000,000 annualized savings by the end of this fiscal year.

Now you've upgraded that clearly to 40,000,010 million dollars of that is coming from the eight ks and the consolidation in Germany. So that's a $10,000,000 And then there's another $10,000,000 Can again remind us what that additional incremental $10,000,000 is? And then also looking at end of 2Q, end of 3Q, what kind of will you be in terms of getting to that $40,000,000 annualized rate in the next few quarters? Thanks.

Speaker 3

All right, Brian. This is Jeff. The additional $10,000,000 that you're asking about in terms of going from up to the $40,000,000 run rate really comes from gaining further clarity on the synergies that we had talked about previously related specifically to closures of the plants in California and Penang plus the cost savings going from a direct sales model in China and Taiwan. So it's more or less an update as we gain more clarity around those synergies that we're seeing an increase in the opportunity. So now on to the second part of your question.

So as we progress through the quarter, let's start with Q2, excuse me, progress through the year. I'll start with Q2. We've baked in about $4,000,000 a little over $4,000,000 of synergies into the Q2 guidance. That grows to just about $7,000,000 in Q3 and then we're projecting it to grow to 9,000,000 to $9,500,000 at the end of Q4. So that brings us very close to that 2020 run rate, if you will, of $10,000,000 per quarter.

Speaker 5

Got it. Okay. Very helpful. Thanks, Jeff. And that the sort of the sensitivity revenue model that you have in the slides, that's based on not if you hit those revenue levels before the end of the year, that's based once you kind of take full advantage of those cost synergies on a full run rate basis, right?

Speaker 3

That's correct.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. And then also you're going back now to the business itself. You expressed increased confidence in terms of second half visibility. I know you outlined some specific programs on your last earnings call, but just kind of curious, in terms of those leading indicators, maybe even leading utilization rates that you look into, can you maybe flush that out a little bit in terms of what you've seen improve and even if you can talk about it here you want to on a qualitative booking standpoint, any particular market? Any color you can provide would be helpful.

Yes.

Speaker 2

Two perspectives here coming from two different angles, Brian. One of them is if you look at utilization, it is actually ticking up at the OSATs, which essentially indicates an improvement in business, mainly driven by the fabless guys related to mobility. At the same time, we do have projects associated with the mobility market on the tester side that are projected to yield some results starting in third quarter and going into the fourth quarter. We have seen here a ramp in orders for handlers into mobility for the mobility market already in April. And we have some activities also associated with five that are due to ramp in the third quarter.

So all of that put together essentially mobility or infrastructure for mobility both are showing signs of higher forecast improvement proving business conditions starting in the third quarter and thus the comments that we made here on the call.

Speaker 5

Okay. Maybe just one last question. I saw the breakdown by end market for the Q1 revenue level. I was a little surprised that automotive and industrial seemed to, if I did the math right, were up sequential and down sequential quarter. And so a little surprised by that, although it does sound like you don't expect much bounce up in terms of those markets, at least over the interim.

So kind of curious about that. And second part of that is just data center, a little bit more lumpy, kind of lumpy down, it looks like in Q1. Just kind of could you remind us what goes on the fully consolidated business? What goes into that bucket and kind of how to think about that segment moving forward?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think the first thing I would highlight to you, Brian, is that these are and as the table here says, systems. So we're not talking about recurring business, right? And we do have a substantial recurring business in the data center, cloud and AI segment. And that did remain strong in the first quarter.

But what we have seen here in the first quarter is really, as I said before, sort of a bit of an uptick in the automotive market, particularly the automotive market. And we think the automotive market has prospects to continue to improve throughout the year. And now it could be a little lumpy, but nevertheless, I think it will continue to climb through the year.

Speaker 5

All right. Thanks so much.

Speaker 0

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of David Duley from Steelhead Securities. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thanks for taking my question. I'm sorry, I signed on a bit late. So if I'm repeating questions, I apologize. You mentioned utilization rates uptick.

Did you give what the overall utilization rates are at this point?

Speaker 2

Dave. Yes, utilization the overall utilization rate actually went down a point. We were looking at about 81% at the end of the fourth quarter to 80% at the end of the first quarter. With that said, it has increased at the OSATs. That's much of the pie with the mobility market.

And it has decreased proportionally decreased across IDMs.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then some of the signs that you might look to that would indicate that things are going to get better in Q2 in the second half. One is an increase in utilization rates. One is the OSATs coming to starting to come into order, I guess is what I heard you say. Is there any other signs or indications that you can see, about the signs of recovery?

Speaker 2

Well, for us, I think it becomes a bit more specific to certain projects that we have in five gs and in mobility. And those projects are due to pick up some speed here in the third quarter. So it's more specific than that in our case, Dooley.

Speaker 6

Okay. So those programs will pick up in the third and the fourth quarter. If there's an overall industry recovery, you would also see a pickup from that as well?

Speaker 2

Yes. Overall industry recovery would be very welcome. But right now, we're looking at utilization rate that we have today. I think it's going to continue to turn the corner towards an improvement, particularly driven by the OSATs. I think the IDMs will start picking up as well.

But that's just projection, right? But realistically, in our case, we're very much focused on these programs that we have been qualified for and we expect to ramp in the third quarter.

Speaker 6

Final thing for me is, could you make a comment or talk about your initiatives in the flat panel display testing market and how you're doing there?

Speaker 2

So that is one of the areas that pertains to the mobility market, and also consumer market, I should say, that we expect to see some activity towards the end of the second quarter into the third quarter. We have had our products qualified for certain customers, test insertion, and we're looking forward to being part of the next ramp on those device tests.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 0

Thank Our next question or comment comes from the line of Craig Ellis from B. Riley FBR. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hi, this is actually Peter Pan calling in for Craig Ellis. Thanks for taking our question. Congratulations on the strong execution. On the synergies, there's roughly about a $6,000,000 gap from 2Q to 4Q's $40,000,000 annual run rate. On a quarterly basis, is it going to be $3,000,000 per quarter, Lindley?

Or is this more like back end loaded? How should we kind of think about the linearity of the cost synergies?

Speaker 3

Peter, are you referring to the cost synergies that we're achieving during the year?

Speaker 7

Yes. From 2Q $17,000,000 to fourth quarter's 40,000,000 about roughly $40,000,000 How should we think about the quarterly projection?

Speaker 3

Okay. Okay. Yes. So think about, as I said, we've got about $4,200,000 baked into Q2. So that's roughly $17,000,000 a year, right?

Then we're looking at about $7,000,000 in Q3, take up to about $28,000,000 a year. And then roughly $9000000.9500000.0 estimated for Q4, so $38 ish annualized. So that really puts us in a good position to start realizing the full $10,000,000 beginning in 2020.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. And then on your 2Q guidance, can you talk about some of the end markets, which end market are you specifically seeing a pickup? I know you mentioned that automotive is in the world, but can you talk about other end markets that's doing well?

Speaker 2

Yes. So Peter, as I said, we do see an uptick in small uptick in automotive. We continue to see strong recurring on the data center, cloud and AI markets, essentially compute, right? We expect to see towards the end of the quarter also an uptick in the mobility market associated with flat panel display. And we have received an order in April already for double digit units of test handlers for mobile processor test.

So that's pretty much the story for second quarter. And as you can see here, we have had really good success with high performance contactors and actually achieved record revenue in the first quarter for millimeter wave contactor applications. So we expect that trend to continue into the second quarter and for the balance of the year as we continue to gain new sockets for not only millimeter wave, but also over the air applications, radar applications and also high performance low impedance contactors.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. And one more question before I hop back in the queue. You mentioned the utilization rate at 80%. What's the historical rate to trigger a capacity buy from your customers?

Speaker 2

It is usually on the low 80s. When you see capacity buys, you're sort of 83%, 84%, trending to 85%, you're really in a healthy state. Now 80% is across all customers, right? So it's a weighted average across all customer base. Within that, you have pockets of strength and pockets of weakness.

And we basically have customers already at a position that are driving some capacity buys. It's just not broad based at the moment.

Speaker 7

Okay. And some of your some of the bigger foundries and analog talked about potentially a 30% half on half increase in sales. Would that push it near the 85 ish range or would that be above the 85 ish range if that were to play out?

Speaker 2

Honestly, think to see a 30% increase, I think you'd be looking at an 85 ish range for utilization rate across the board.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 0

You're welcome. Thank you. I'm showing no additional questions in the queue at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Howard, and thank you for everyone joining us on the call today. And hopefully, we'll see you in an upcoming conference. Have a good evening.

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.