Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong Financial Performance with Positive Adjusted EBITDA and Net Income: Coinbase reported fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion and net income of $1.3 billion. This marks two straight years of positive adjusted EBITDA, demonstrating Coinbase's ability to maintain profitability even in volatile market conditions.
- Significant Growth in Trading Volume and Market Share: In Q4, Coinbase's total trading volume reached $439 billion, up 137%, with consumer trading volume up 176% and institutional trading volume up 128%, outperforming the U.S. spot market. Additionally, Coinbase achieved an all-time high in U.S. spot and global derivatives market share in Q4.
- Regulatory Tailwinds and Expansion Opportunities: With the election of the most pro-crypto Congress and President in history, regulatory overhang is lifting, and governments are leaning into crypto adoption. Coinbase is well-positioned to capitalize on these new regulatory tailwinds, with plans to accelerate international expansion, drive utility across payments and consumer applications, and support landmark crypto legislation.
- Increasing competition from other online trading platforms offering a broader range of trading products beyond crypto, such as a competitor reporting 400% year-over-year growth in crypto trading volume, may erode Coinbase's market share and put pressure on its fees and margins.
- The wider than usual range in sales and marketing expenses due to market volatility could lead to decreased profitability if these expenses do not result in proportionate revenue growth.
- Despite trading volume nearly tripling, the retail trading fee rate increased slightly instead of declining, which may indicate potential future fee compression due to competitive pressures.
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Technology and Development and General and Administrative Expenses | Q1 2025 | $690 M–$730 M | $750 M–$800 M | raised |
Sales and Marketing Expenses | Q1 2025 | $170 M–$220 M | $235 M–$375 M | raised |
Subscription and Services Revenue | Q1 2025 | Expected to face headwinds (10% ETH decline, lower rates) | $685 M–$765 M | no prior guidance |
Transaction Revenue | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $750 M | no prior guidance |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Regulatory environment and legislative developments | Emphasis on pro-crypto bills, stablecoin frameworks, clarity from the SEC, and importance of regulatory clarity in Q1–Q3 | Repeal of SAB 121 replaced with SAB 122; pro-crypto administration; stablecoin frameworks; strategic Bitcoin reserve | Ongoing positive momentum with more clarity fostering growth |
International expansion (including MiFID license and European derivatives) | MiFID license obtained in Q3, unlocking derivatives in 20+ EU markets; consistent global expansions in Q1–Q3 | Broad expansion noted (19% international revenue share), but no direct mention of MiFID specifics | Continued expansion with a focus on derivatives |
Stablecoin usage, pair trading, and USDC growth | USDC adoption and stablecoin volumes rising; some offset by interest rates in Q1–Q3 | $30T stablecoin volume in 2024; USDC revenue down 9% due to lower rates and a new ecosystem participant | High adoption but revenues impacted by macro changes |
Derivatives trading volume and market share | Incremental growth from Q1–Q3; introduced perpetual futures and global derivatives strategy | All-time high derivatives market share; institutional volume up 128% quarter-over-quarter | Significant growth driver accelerating in Q4 |
Competition from other platforms and potential fee pressure | Not discussed in Q1–Q3 | Addressed trust as a differentiator; derivative fees may evolve but stable for now | Newly addressed topic reflecting awareness of increased competition |
Operating expenses, marketing costs, and headcount changes | Fluctuating expenses and opportunistic marketing spend; some modest headcount growth in Q1–Q3 | Operating expenses at $1.2B (up 19% QoQ); marketing slated at $235–$375M; no new headcount updates | Rising expenses with flexible marketing spend and unclear headcount changes |
Interest income from USDC reserves | Beneficial with higher rates in Q2; partly offset by lower rates in Q3 | Decline in stablecoin revenue attributable to lower interest rates | Decreasing as interest rates shift |
M&A opportunities | Focus in Q1 and Q3 on using M&A to acquire talent, technology, and expand internationally | Declared that “M&A is legal again,” seeing lots of opportunities | Renewed emphasis with a strong pipeline |
Bitcoin ETF excitement and institutional adoption | Major driver of institutional volume in Q1–Q3; fueled trading and custody growth | No direct mention in Q4; institutional volume still grew significantly | Unmentioned in Q4 but continues to influence institutional interest |
Expansion of product offerings beyond trading (staking, DeFi, futures, etc.) | Staking, DeFi, Base L2, and subscription services have expanded each quarter since Q1 | Subscription revenue at $641M; continued focus on stablecoin payments, DeFi integration, and Base enhancements | Broadening product set to build a complete crypto ecosystem |
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Market Share Growth
Q: How will Coinbase sustain market share gains?
A: Coinbase reached all-time highs in U.S. spot and global derivatives market share in Q4, reflecting the trust customers have in the platform. The company focuses on adding assets, improving user experience, platform stability, and effective marketing to durably gain share over the long term. -
International Derivatives Expansion
Q: Can derivatives fees increase as you gain share?
A: Currently, Coinbase is focused on building liquidity and trading volume by providing incentives. Over time, fees are expected to evolve as the platform gains scale, but derivatives will remain a lower-priced product than spot trading. -
Regulatory Environment
Q: What must regulators get right for market growth?
A: Key priorities include market structure legislation for token classification, a clear stablecoin framework, and ensuring fair access to banking services. These steps would open up huge pools of capital and allow startups to build. -
Customer Acquisition Strategy
Q: How does Coinbase attract and retain users?
A: Coinbase leverages effective marketing with a one-year payback period to acquire new users drawn by new coins or first-time crypto interest. Resurrected users re-engage during higher volatility. Coinbase One subscribers are active traders benefiting from trading fee savings. -
Expansion Beyond Brokerage
Q: Will Coinbase become more than a brokerage?
A: Coinbase aims to be the primary financial account for people in the global economy. Plans include driving adoption of stablecoins and tokenizing real-world assets, allowing more traditional assets to come on-chain. -
Handling Token Listings
Q: How is Coinbase rethinking token listings?
A: With around 1 million tokens created weekly, Coinbase plans to integrate decentralized exchanges into its platform. This approach balances customer access to assets with appropriate consumer protection. -
Competition from TradFi
Q: How does Coinbase view competition from peers?
A: Coinbase welcomes more entrants into crypto, viewing it as total addressable market expansion. The company believes being crypto-native and dedicated solely to crypto provides a competitive advantage. -
Retail Trading Fee Dynamics
Q: Why did retail fee rates increase despite volume tripling?
A: Strong growth in both simple and advanced trading led to a similar fee rate quarter-over-quarter. There was no disproportionate contribution from either segment. -
Sales and Marketing Outlook
Q: Why is there a wider range in marketing expenses?
A: The wider range reflects current market conditions, allowing flexibility to deploy marketing dollars amidst week-to-week variance. The outlook captures potential volatility and opportunities in the next six weeks. -
Interest in Prediction Markets
Q: Will Coinbase enter political betting markets?
A: While finding prediction markets exciting, Coinbase has nothing to announce at this time. The company acknowledges the role of prediction markets in providing a better source of truth.