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AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST (COLD)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 delivered mixed results: revenue modestly beat Street while EPS missed; guidance was cut as management removed expected seasonal uplift amid ongoing demand headwinds. Total revenue was $650.7M vs S&P consensus $643.7M (beat), GAAP diluted EPS $0.01 vs S&P consensus $0.078 (miss) ; S&P estimates shown with asterisks below (S&P Global)*
  • Adjusted FFO/share was $0.36 (vs $0.34 in Q1; $0.38 YoY), Core EBITDA was $159.1M with 24.4% margin (down 60 bps YoY) .
  • Guidance cut: AFFO/share to $1.39–$1.45 (from $1.42–$1.52); same-store revenue growth to (4%)–0% (from 0%–2%); NOI now 50–100 bps below revenues; maintenance capex lowered to $60–$70M (from $80–$85M) .
  • Strategic positives: three new developments launched (KC/CPKC rail hub, Allentown expansion, flagship DP World Dubai), under budget and with solid demand; fixed commitments steady at ~60%, supporting cash flow durability .
  • Stock catalysts: guidance reduction and muted seasonality are near-term overhangs; under-budget development delivery, retail/QSR wins, and portfolio rationalization offer medium-term support as volumes normalize .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Development execution: Allentown completed below budget at $79M (vs $85M est.) with earlier stabilization; Kansas City CPKC rail hub completed ~$100M (below original $127M est.); Dubai flagship launched via JV with DP World, all showing strong customer demand .
    • Commercial durability: Fixed-commit rents ~60% of rent & storage; stickier, multi‑year contracts help defend price/value and occupancy across cycles . Quote: “Our rent and storage revenue from fixed commitments came in at 60% for the quarter” .
    • Services margin resilience: Same-store services margin improved 90 bps YoY to 13.3% in Q2, reflecting labor productivity and operational excellence; management targets >12% for the full year .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Demand/seasonality: No seasonal lift in June/July; management removed the 2ppt sequential occupancy build from H2 forecast; guidance reduced accordingly .
    • Pricing pressure: Storage pricing remains under pressure in a competitive U.S. market, including “irrational” moves by competitors, though handling pricing held .
    • Lower occupancy/throughput: Economic occupancy declined YoY (total 73.8%, -430 bps; same‑store 75.5%, -410 bps) on lower volumes amid multiple headwinds (rates, tariffs, inflation, benefit reductions, GLP-1, excess capacity) .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025 (Actual)Q2 2025 S&P Consensus*
Revenue ($M)$666.435 $628.980 $650.748 $643.724*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.13) $(0.06) $0.01 $0.078*
Core EBITDA ($M)$155.592 $147.633 $159.105 —
Core EBITDA Margin (%)23.3% 23.5% 24.4% —
Adjusted FFO/Share ($)$0.37 $0.34 $0.36 —
  • YoY highlights: Revenue -1.5% YoY to $650.7M (vs $661.0M), Core EBITDA margin down 60 bps to 24.4%, same-store services margin +90 bps to 13.3% .
  • Sequential highlights: Revenue up from $629.0M in Q1; AFFO/share up to $0.36 from $0.34 .
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown ($M)

SegmentQ4 2024 RevenueQ4 2024 NOIQ1 2025 RevenueQ1 2025 NOIQ2 2025 RevenueQ2 2025 NOI
Warehouse606.465 201.427 575.357 196.585 594.070 201.005
Transportation49.875 7.710 43.993 7.254 48.097 8.742
Third-Party Managed10.095 2.053 9.630 2.009 8.581 1.909
Total666.435 211.190 628.980 205.848 650.748 211.656

Key KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total economic occupancy (%)78.1% 74.7% 73.8%
Total physical occupancy (%)67.8% 63.3% 62.8%
Same-store services margin (%)12.4% 11.3% 13.3%
Same-store economic occupancy (%)79.6% 76.6% 75.5%
Fixed-commit rent & storage (% of rent & storage)61% (Q2’24)60.1% 59.7%
Fixed-commit as % of total warehouse revenue61.4% (Q2’25)60.6% 61.4%

Non-GAAP and items affecting comparability

  • Adjusted FFO/share $0.36 (vs $0.38 YoY) benefited from $11.8M net gain on sale of real estate and productivity, offset by higher SG&A (Project Orion go‑live costs) and “Acquisition, cyber incident, and other, net” .
  • Impairment charges ($5.226M) and elevated “Acquisition, cyber incident, and other, net” ($23.226M) weighed on GAAP results; Project Orion deferred cost amortization was $4.762M .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (May 8, 2025)Current Guidance (Aug 7, 2025)Change
Warehouse same-store revenue growth (cc)FY 20250.0% – 2.0% (4.0)% – 0.0% Lowered
Warehouse same-store NOI growth (cc)FY 2025100 bps higher than associated revenues 50–100 bps lower than associated revenues Lowered
Non-same-store NOIFY 2025$7M – $13M $7M – $13M Maintained
Transportation & 3P Managed NOIFY 2025$40M – $44M $40M – $44M Maintained
SG&A (incl. SBC and Orion amort.)FY 2025$270M – $280M $270M – $280M Maintained
Interest expenseFY 2025$153M – $157M $153M – $157M Maintained
Current income tax expenseFY 2025$8M – $10M $6M – $8M Lowered
Non-real estate D&AFY 2025$139M – $149M $139M – $149M Maintained
Maintenance capexFY 2025$80M – $85M $60M – $70M Lowered
Development startsFY 2025$200M – $300M $200M – $300M Maintained
Adjusted FFO/shareFY 2025$1.42 – $1.52 $1.39 – $1.45 Lowered

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 & Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Demand/seasonalityExpect seasonal improvements; services margin strengthening in 2024 No seasonal lift; removed 200 bps occupancy build from H2 forecast Deteriorated
PricingPricing architecture defended amid competition Storage pricing under pressure; some “irrational” moves; handling pricing intact More pressure
Fixed commitments60.1% rent & storage; 60.6% total warehouse revenue (Q1) ~60% maintained; multiyear, sticky structures Stable
Retail/QSRRetail focus, Houston acquisition for a major retailer (Q1) Two new EU retail wins (Lisbon, NL) with high turns; strong cash flow profile Positive
DevelopmentPipeline in KC/DFW/Sydney; new Port Saint John (Q4/Jan) Allentown, KC (CPKC), Dubai launched under budget; strong demand; faster stabilization Positive
Portfolio actions2024 optimization; 2025: rationalization in focus 3 exits ($20M proceeds), 6 more exits planned; SuperFrio JV exit ($28M) Positive for capital recycling
ERP/Project OrionElevated SG&A from Orion in 2024 SG&A still elevated; Orion amortization noted Neutral-to-slight headwind
International90%+ occupancy pockets; less speculative development International performing well; incremental investment tilt Positive
Power costsSeasonal Q3 peak; manageable Y/Y Expect higher Q3 power; small EPS offset Seasonal headwind
Capital/leverageIG profile focus; no near-term maturities $400M bond issued; term loan extension; liquidity ~$937M; ND/EBITDA ~6.3x Stable liquidity

Management Commentary

  • “We said Q2 would look a lot like Q1, and that's exactly how it unfolded… occupancy gains have been slow to materialize given the ongoing demand headwinds.”
  • “Our rent and storage revenue from fixed commitments came in at 60% for the quarter… multiyear agreements… do not reset volume guarantees or rates on an annual basis.”
  • “As a result of these headwinds, we are adjusting our AFFO/share guidance range to $1.39–$1.45.”
  • On pricing: “The storage market remains very, very competitive… we’re even still seeing some moves into irrational.”
  • Development: “Allentown… completed… at $79M… moved the stabilization date… up by two quarters… Kansas City… completed under budget at $100M… Dubai… launched… seeing high demand.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Pricing and competition: Management flagged intensified U.S. storage pricing pressure with selective “irrational” moves; handling/services pricing remained resilient due to value-add and stickiness .
  • Seasonality/occupancy: Removed the 200 bps sequential occupancy build previously expected; H2 to look like H1 absent guaranteed harvest flows; churn remains <4% .
  • Fixed commitments structure: 60% target maintained with 3–7 year terms (longer for dedicated builds), fixed monthly fees pegged to peak needs; no annual resets .
  • Development returns/capital: Hurdle rates remain 10–12% ROIC; under-budget project delivery aided by procurement enhancements and incentives; international builds prioritized where occupancy is 90%+ with limited speculative supply .
  • Portfolio rationalization/other income: Exited three idled facilities ($20M proceeds), six more planned; SuperFrio JV exit ~$28M; “other income” included gains from sales and hedge unwinds (with AFFO adjustments as appropriate) .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 revenue beat: $650.7M actual vs S&P consensus $643.7M (≈+1.1%) . Consensus values from S&P Global.*
  • Q2 EPS miss: GAAP diluted EPS $0.01 vs S&P Primary EPS consensus $0.078.* Note: S&P “actual” for Primary EPS shows $0.043*, which may reflect differing “Primary EPS” methodology vs company-reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.01 .
  • AFFO/share: Company reported $0.36; Street AFFO consensus not available in S&P data retrieved here (unavailable).
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance reset reflects removal of seasonal inventory build; expect subdued occupancy and persistent U.S. pricing pressure through year-end, with mix and services margins partially offsetting .
  • Development track record and partnerships (CPKC, DP World) are delivering under budget with accelerating stabilization timelines—likely a medium-term NOI tailwind into 2026 .
  • Fixed commitments at ~60% underpin cash flow resilience; continued retail/QSR expansion (high-turn, services-heavy) supports margin quality .
  • Portfolio pruning (facility exits, JV monetization) and capex discipline (maintenance capex cut) enhance capital efficiency and free up resources for higher-return projects .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity remain solid post-$400M bond and term loan extension; deleveraging expected as developments stabilize in 2026 (ND/EBITDA ~6.3x currently) .
  • Near-term trading: Guidance cut and absent seasonality are overhangs; monitor demand signals (tariffs, rates, inflation, GLP-1 impacts), pricing dynamics, and power costs in Q3 for sentiment shifts .
  • Medium-term: International investment tilt and ecosystem partnerships (rail/ports) can reaccelerate growth as volumes normalize; watch ramp of KC/Allentown/Dubai and retail/QSR wins for estimate revisions .

Additional references and data points

  • Q2 2025 company results press release (financials, segment data, guidance) .
  • Q2 2025 earnings call (themes: demand, pricing, seasonality, development ROIC, exits, leverage) .
  • Prior quarter press releases for trend analysis: Q1 2025 , Q4 2024 .
  • Dividend and other Q2 press releases: $0.23 dividend (+5% YoY), leadership changes, Port Saint John groundbreaking .