Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue was $666.4M, down 1.9% YoY as transportation revenue and warehouse volumes fell; Adjusted FFO was $105.9M ($0.37/share), with Core EBITDA margin at 23.3% .
Same store services margin expanded sharply to 13.2% (vs 6.3% YoY) on sustained workforce productivity and pricing capture; warehouse segment margin rose 102 bps to 33.2% .
2025 guidance introduced: AFFO/share $1.51–$1.59 (+~5% YoY midpoint), same-store revenue growth 2–4% (cc), services margins expected “in excess of 12%”; SG&A $280–$289M reflecting new Oracle SaaS licensing and IT/security spend .
Strategic development pipeline remains a catalyst: $79M Port Saint John (Canada) project (10–12% ROIC) with DP World/CPKC and a $34M Christchurch expansion; three projects set to open in Q2 2025 (Allentown, Dubai, Kansas City) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Services margin expansion continued: same-store services margin reached 13.2% in Q4 (vs 6.3% prior year), supported by improved workforce productivity and Project Orion benefits .
Fixed commitments advanced for 15th consecutive quarter, reaching ~59% of rent/storage revenue in Q4, enhancing revenue visibility: “we are close to achieving our target of 60% fixed commits” .
Management confidence in 2025 trajectory: “we are continuing to make targeted investments…position us for future growth,” guiding AFFO/share to $1.51–$1.59 (+~5% YoY midpoint) .

What Went Wrong

Total revenue decreased 1.9% YoY on 13.8% decline in transportation services and lower warehouse volumes; economic occupancy fell vs prior year despite sequential stabilization .
Core EBITDA declined 2.9% YoY in Q4 (to $155.6M) on higher software costs from Project Orion and increased information security investments within SG&A .
Physical occupancy remained pressured: total warehouse physical occupancy 66.9% (vs 73.6% prior year), same-store 68.0% (vs 74.9%), reflecting softer end-consumer demand .

Financial Results

Consolidated Financials (Q2 → Q3 → Q4 2024)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($M)	$661.0	$674.2	$666.4
Net Loss per Diluted Share ($)	$(0.23)	$(0.01)	$(0.13)
Core FFO per Diluted Share ($)	$0.33	$0.29	$0.31
Adjusted FFO per Diluted Share ($)	$0.38	$0.35	$0.37
Core EBITDA ($M)	$165.5	$157.2	$155.6
Core EBITDA Margin (%)	25.0%	23.3%	23.3%

Segment Revenues and Contribution (NOI)

Segment	Q2 2024 Revenues ($M)	Q2 2024 NOI ($M)	Q3 2024 Revenues ($M)	Q3 2024 NOI ($M)	Q4 2024 Revenues ($M)	Q4 2024 NOI ($M)
Warehouse	$600.4	$204.5	$612.2	$198.6	$606.5	$201.4
Transportation	$50.6	$8.9	$51.8	$8.4	$49.9	$7.7
Third-party Managed	$9.9	$2.1	$10.2	$2.2	$10.1	$2.1
Total	$661.0	$215.5	$674.2	$209.2	$666.4	$211.2

KPIs and Operational Metrics

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Economic Occupancy – Total Warehouse (%)	78.1%	76.7%	77.4%
Physical Occupancy – Total Warehouse (%)	67.8%	66.6%	66.9%
Economic Occupancy – Same Store (%)	79.4%	78.0%	78.6%
Physical Occupancy – Same Store (%)	68.9%	67.8%	68.0%
Fixed Commitment Share of Rent/Storage (%)	56.6% (pro forma)	58.1%	59.0%
Same Store Services Margin (%)	13.2% (cc)	14.5%	13.2%
Warehouse Segment Margin (%)	34.1%	32.4%	33.2%

Estimate vs Actuals

Consensus estimates from S&P Global for Q4 2024 were unavailable due to API limit; no beat/miss assessment can be provided. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
AFFO per Share ($)	FY 2025	N/A	$1.51 – $1.59	New
Same-store Revenues Growth (cc)	FY 2025	N/A	2.0% – 4.0%	New
Same-store NOI Growth (cc)	FY 2025	N/A	200 bps above associated revenues	New
Non-same-store NOI ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$0 – $7	New
Transportation & Managed NOI ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$44 – $48	New
SG&A incl. SBC & Orion amort. ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$280 – $289 (SBC $27.5–$29.5; Orion amort. $13–$15)	New
Interest Expense ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$145 – $150	New
Current Income Tax ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$8 – $10	New
Non-real estate D&A ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$139 – $149	New
Maintenance Capex ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$82 – $88	New
Development Starts ($M)	FY 2025	N/A	$200 – $300	New

Guidance drivers/clarifications: incremental Q1 2025 Oracle SaaS licensing (~~$4M), expensing of previously capitalized Project Orion labor (~~$3M), merit increases (~~$4M), and security/IT transformation (~~$6M) embedded in SG&A .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2/Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
AI/Technology (Project Orion)	Q3: “embedded AI opportunities” >400 identified; Orion driving productivity and pricing; new base services margin 12% . Q2: technology/process investments enhanced revenue capture and cost management .	Continued Orion-driven efficiencies; 2025 SG&A includes Oracle SaaS/IT security; sustaining >12% services margin .	Positive, sustained margin tailwind.
Occupancy & Demand	Q3: Softer consumer demand; economic occupancy ~76.7%; guidance for compression in pricing comps . Q2: Econ occupancy ~78.1%; fixed commits growing .	Sequential stabilization; 2025 assumes flat economic occupancy ±100 bps and throughput +100–200 bps .	Stabilizing; gradual improvement H2 2025.
Fixed Commitments	Q3: 58.1% of rent/storage; 14th straight quarterly record . Q2: 56.6% (pro forma) .	~59% in Q4; “very close to 60%” target .	Improving but approaching target ceiling.
Development & Partnerships	Q3: Exceeded 2024 development starts; pipeline >$1B; Allentown, Dubai, Kansas City on track . Q2: Raised capital; increasing development guide .	Announced $79M Port Saint John (DP World/CPKC) and $34M Christchurch; DFW automation broke ground Jan; three openings Q2 2025 .	Active pipeline; execution continues.
Tariffs/Macro	Q3: Inflation/interest rates cited as key to consumption recovery .	Tariffs/immigration impacts seen as limited; import exposure low; Mexico rail solutions could be tailwind .	Macro sensitivity but mitigants in network strategy.
Labor/Workforce	Q3: Turnover improved to 32%; perm/temp 75:25; workforce maturity supporting margins .	Q4: Perm/temp stable 75:25; turnover 32%; associates <12 months at 22% .	Stable, supportive of services margins.

Management Commentary

“Throughout 2024 we made significant progress… deliver strong full-year results, including 11.4% growth in Global Warehouse Same Store NOI and 16% growth in Adjusted FFO per share… surpassed [same store handling NOI] goal… with a $125 million year-over-year improvement.” .
“We believe… same-store warehouse services margins in excess of 12% [in 2025] aided by continued productivity initiatives and benefits from Project Orion.” .
“We are seeing stabilization… anticipate getting back to … seasonal trends… we expect throughput volumes to increase 100–200 bps [in 2025].” .
“Rent and storage revenue derived from fixed commitment storage contracts came in at approximately 59%… a 15th straight quarterly record.” .
“Port St. John… approximately $79 million… ROIC in the 10% to 12% range… we broke ground… expect to open the facility in Q3 2026.” .

Q&A Highlights

Occupancy outlook: Management guides to flat economic occupancy for 2025 with seasonal improvement in H2; gap between physical and economic occupancy expected as fixed commitments grow and is “not a concern” .
Services margins sustainability: Greater than 12% viewed as conservative starting point; upside as throughput recovers (50% contribution margin on incremental volume) .
New business pipeline: Probability-weighted pipeline >$200M, with retail/QSR wins boosting throughput; churn ~3% expected to persist .
Non-same-store NOI guidance (0–$7M): Timing of ramp/stabilization at Lancaster/Plainville vs startup losses at Kansas City/Allentown explains muted FY impact; full run-rate expected in 2026 .
SG&A/IT: 2025 SG&A increase from Oracle SaaS licensing, expensed Orion labor, merit increases, and cyber/IT transformation investments .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus for Q4 2024 was unavailable due to S&P Global daily request limit; therefore, no assessment of beats/misses versus estimates can be provided. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.*
Near-term estimate revisions may reflect: (1) 2025 SG&A uplift from Oracle SaaS, expensed labor, and IT/security investments ; (2) same-store revenue growth (2–4% cc) and throughput increase (1–2%) ; (3) non-same-store NOI timing through stabilizations .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Services margin durability is a core earnings engine; productivity and Orion-driven process improvements underpin >12% margins with upside as volumes normalize .
Revenue visibility strengthened via rising fixed commitments (~59% of rent/storage), partially offsetting volume softness; continued commercialization is a defense against macro volatility .
Development pipeline remains a catalyst with strategic partnerships (DP World/CPKC) and targeted expansions (Dallas automation, Christchurch), supporting medium-term NOI growth and inventory turns .
Near-term headwinds include lower physical occupancy and higher SG&A tied to technology and security investments; however, guidance embeds these costs and still targets ~5% AFFO/share growth .
Watch H2 2025 for occupancy/throughput improvement; sales pipeline and customer outsourcing to Americold’s network should drive incremental volumes even before full consumer recovery .
Balance sheet/liquidity remain adequate to fund growth (liquidity ~$922M; net debt/Core EBITDA ~5.4x; fixed-rate debt ~92.7%) with no material maturities until 2026 .
Dividend continuity ($0.22/share for Q4) and AFFO growth trajectory support income plus growth positioning for the REIT over the next 12–24 months .

Additional Notes on Source Documents

Q4 2024 earnings release (press release) provided full detail; a distinct 8-K 2.02 for Q4 was not found in the available catalog. We reviewed Q3 2024 8-K 2.02 and Q4/Q3/Q2 press releases and the full Q4 earnings call transcript .

Footnote: *Consensus estimates would normally be sourced from S&P Global; unavailable due to API limit at time of retrieval.

AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST (COLD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary