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COMSovereign Holding Corp. (COMS)·Q2 2019 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • First-ever profitable quarter: revenue $1.373M, gross margin 71%, operating income $86.9K, net income $53.8K; press release highlighted “approximately $1.4M” revenue, 70% gross margin and ~$87K operating income driven by WASP deliveries to U.S. Border Patrol/CBP .
  • Strong YoY inflection: revenue up ~3,169% vs Q2 2018 ($42K) and a swing to positive EPS ($0.00) from a $(0.12) loss; sequential rebound from a weak Q1 2019 ($7.5K revenue) as deliveries began late in Q2 .
  • Execution on government pipeline: initial WASP units delivered under the $3.8M CBP subcontract (Dec-2018); a $1.7M follow-on order (Jun-4) and subsequent $1.1M U.S. Army WASP Lite delivery (Jul-18) support visibility though the latter is post-quarter .
  • Liquidity improved but dependent: working capital $1.208M and cash $0.676M; renewal of the $2.0M CNB line to Aug-2-2020 was expected by end of Aug-2019, representing a key near-term financing event .
  • No S&P Global Wall Street consensus available for Q2 2019 (mapping missing), so estimate comparisons could not be made; monitor future updates for model alignment [GetEstimates error].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “First-ever profitable” quarter driven by WASP product and services revenue to USBP/CBP; CEO: “we believe we are gaining momentum… evidenced by our second quarter 2019 profit” .
  • YoY operating turnaround: income from operations $86.9K vs $(998)K in Q2 2018, with G&A down 14% YoY to $884.9K despite higher legal/IR for S-1/uplisting preparation .
  • Initial WASP deployments commenced, and recurring field services revenue was initiated to support the USBP, providing a base for multi-period revenue contribution .

What Went Wrong

  • Negative operating cash flow YTD ($3.47M) as inventory, receivables and prepaids built ahead of deliveries; cash fell to $0.676M by quarter end .
  • Financing dependency persists: $2.0M CNB revolver maturity extended to Aug-2-2019 with renewal to Aug-2-2020 pending at quarter-end; failure to refinance poses operational risk .
  • Internal control material weakness (segregation of duties) remains; disclosure controls were “not effective” as of Q2 2019, though financials are believed fairly presented .

Financial Results

Income Statement Comparison (USD)

MetricQ2 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019
Revenue ($USD)$42,000 $7,450 $1,373,047
Gross Profit ($USD)$30,363 $3,900 $971,785
Gross Margin %72% 52% 71%
Operating Income ($USD)$(997,956) $(1,071,012) $86,909
Net Income ($USD)$(1,076,100) $(1,103,174) $53,814
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.12) $(0.04) $0.00

Notes:

  • Press release framed Q2 revenue “approximately $1,400,000,” gross margin 70%, operating income “approximately $87,000,” consistent with the 10-Q’s precise figures above .

Segment Breakdown

SegmentQ2 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019
Single segment (aerostats/tethered systems)n/a (company reports one revenue stream) n/a n/a

KPIs

KPIQ2 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019
WASP Systems Delivered (units)n/a0 (deliveries expected late Q2) 2
WASP/USBP Field Services Revenuen/an/aInitiated (monthly recurring)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/CommentaryChange
CBP $3.8M WASP order deliveriesFY 2019Deliveries expected to begin late Q2 2019 Deliveries began late Q2; continue throughout 2019 Maintained (schedule affirmed)
Follow-on CBP orderFY 2019n/a$1.7M follow-on awarded Jun-4, 2019 New
U.S. Army WASP LiteFY 2019n/a$1.1M delivery announced Jul-18, 2019 (post-quarter) New (post-Q2)
CNB Revolving Line (maturity)2019–2020Matures Aug-2-2019 Renewal to Aug-2-2020 expected by end of Aug-2019 Pending renewal
Financial (revenue/margins/EPS)Q2/FY 2019Not providedNo formal quantitative guidance issuedn/a

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

(Company did not furnish a transcript; themes derived from MD&A and press release.)

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q2 2019)Trend
DHS/CBP border deploymentsDec-2018: $3.8M subcontract for six WASP; deliveries expected late Q2 2019 Initial WASP units delivered; recurring services revenue initiated Accelerating deployment
U.S. Army programsOct-2018 $1.7M ERS order referenced in Q1 MD&A Post-Q2: $1.1M WASP Lite delivery (Jul-18) Expanding orders
Manufacturing capacityJan-15-2019: expansion announced Satellite aerostat manufacturing location; capex invested Capacity build-out
Liquidity/financingDec-2018: >70% debt eliminated; Jan-2019 $4.0M equity raised Working capital $1.208M; CNB renewal to Aug-2020 expected Improved but reliant on revolver
Internal controlsQ1: disclosure controls not effective Material weakness persists Unchanged
Legal/regulatoryBanco litigation ongoing Hearing set Oct-30-2019; exposure “possible” with range not estimable Ongoing risk

Management Commentary

  • CEO Jay Nussbaum: “we believe we are gaining momentum, as evidenced by our second quarter 2019 profit driven by an initial set of WASP deliveries to the Southwest border and the initiation of new, monthly recurring services revenues…” .
  • President Dan Erdberg: “We are focused on ensuring a successful initial deployment with the USBP on the Southern border… instrumental in providing increased situational awareness for CBP agents” .
  • MD&A framing: revenue growth driven “primarily from the delivery of the first two WASP systems to a prime contractor and related services,” with gross margin variability by payload mix .

Q&A Highlights

  • No earnings call transcript available for Q2 2019 in the company’s filings; themes above reflect MD&A and press release .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q2 2019 EPS and revenue were unavailable due to missing CIQ mapping for COMS, so we cannot provide beat/miss analysis at this time. Monitor future quarters for availability [GetEstimates error].

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Inflection achieved: first profitable quarter with deliveries commencing; the transition from development to deployment is translating into revenue and margins .
  • Government pipeline underpins near-term visibility: CBP $3.8M order in production with follow-on $1.7M, plus U.S. Army activity; watch execution cadence through 2H19/early 2020 .
  • Margin quality strong but payload-dependent: 71% gross margin in Q2; mix (payloads/services) may drive volatility in future quarters .
  • Liquidity is the swing factor: improved working capital but low cash and reliance on CNB revolver renewal; refinancing progress is a near-term catalyst/risk .
  • Internal controls and legal exposure remain overhangs: material weakness persists; Banco litigation ongoing with a hearing scheduled .
  • Receivables/inventory build reflect ramp: AR rose to $1.373M; inventory to $1.460M as production scales—execution on collections and deliveries should normalize cash flows .
  • With no available Street consensus, traders should focus on delivery milestones (CBP/Army), CNB line renewal, and margin sustainability as stock narrative drivers .