Traeger, Inc. (COOK)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 FY25 was broadly in line: revenue fell 1.1% YoY to $143.3M; GAAP net loss was $0.8M (-$0.01/sh); Adjusted EPS was $0.05; Adjusted EBITDA was $22.5M. Grills grew 12.8% to $86.7M, offset by Accessories (-26.6%) on MEATER weakness; gross margin compressed 170 bps to 41.5% on mix and higher promo funding, partly offset by lower warranty and supply chain savings .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue beat ($143.3M vs $140.6M*) and Adjusted EPS outpaced Primary EPS consensus ($0.05 vs $0.041*). S&P “EBITDA” showed an “actual” of $17.7M* vs a $22.4M* consensus, noting definition differences vs company Adjusted EBITDA of $22.5M .
- Management withdrew FY25 guidance due to tariff uncertainty and fragile consumer sentiment; mitigation underway includes supply-chain savings, strategic pricing, cost reductions, and inventory pullbacks .
- Demand signals remained constructive into Q2 (healthy grill sell-through; Costco roadshows up ~50% YoY; new Woodridge launch outperforming expectations), a potential near-term trading catalyst if tariff clarity and pricing pass-through hold .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Grills growth and product momentum: “our grills business grew 13% … benefited from increased consumer demand and the launch of our new Woodridge series” .
- Healthy sell-through and field activation: “sell-through of Grills remains healthy into the second quarter… materially increase the number of selling events and product demos” .
- Cost discipline and mitigation: supply chain negotiations, diversification away from China by 2026, strategic pricing, and SG&A controls to protect EBITDA and cash flow .
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What Went Wrong
- Gross margin compression: 41.5% vs 43.2% LY, driven by grill mix, increased marketplace investment, and MEATER, partly offset by lower warranty and supply chain improvements .
- Accessories/MEATER pressure: Accessories revenue -26.6% YoY on MEATER declines and lapping a Q1’24 European partnership load-in; strategy shifting mix to wholesale and reducing costs .
- Guidance withdrawn and macro/tariff overhang: FY25 guidance suspended amid a rapidly evolving tariff regime (e.g., grills produced in China face ~45% cumulative tariffs), creating forecast visibility challenges .
Financial Results
Key P&L (oldest → newest; includes consensus for current quarter)
Notes: Company “Adjusted EBITDA” differs from S&P Global’s “EBITDA” definition; use care when comparing to consensus .
Asterisked values are from S&P Global consensus/actuals and may reflect differing definitions; see Estimates Context below. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment and Geography
- Revenue by Category
- Geography (YoY)
Balance Sheet/Other KPIs (quarter-end unless noted)
Guidance Changes
Management cited rapidly evolving trade policy and fragile consumer sentiment for suspending guidance, with updates to be provided as visibility improves .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our first quarter results were largely inline with our expectations… grills business grew 13%… launch of our new Woodridge series… Offsetting the growth in grills was pressure on our accessories revenues due to continued challenges at MEATER.” — Jeremy Andrus, CEO .
- “We are fully committed to shifting production away from China and are planning to materially reduce the portion of our production that occurs in China by 2026… [and] have implemented strategic pricing increases.” — Jeremy Andrus .
- “Given the tremendous economic uncertainty related to trade policy… we are withdrawing our forward guidance for fiscal year 2025… [and] planning inventory conservatively and have significantly reduced purchase orders.” — Dominic Blosil, CFO .
- “Sell-through of Grills remains healthy into the second quarter… we increased the number of [Costco] road shows by nearly 50%.” — Jeremy Andrus .
Q&A Highlights
- Pricing strategy and elasticity: Broad-based price increases set SKU-by-SKU based on elasticity, features, competitive position; prices reset over weeks; expect competitors to raise prices too .
- MEATER strategy: Shift mix from online/DTC to wholesale channels; centralize operations; cost reductions to stabilize profitability before reaccelerating growth .
- Retail inventory posture: No reluctance to take inventory; interim shift from direct import to domestic fulfillment to manage tariff assessment mechanics .
- Tariff stacking clarity: China grills ~45% (20% IEEPA + 25% Section 232); Vietnam grills ~25% (reciprocal not stacked over 232); accessories vary (many at 10%; some China-sourced items can be much higher), prompting sourcing moves .
- Marketing mix and ROI: Less top-of-funnel, more in-store activation and marketplace programs (some recognized in COGS); focus on high-return initiatives .
- Inventory/POs: Using pre-tariff inventory near term; pulling back POs until better demand signals through peak season; iterative weekly demand planning with retail partners .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $143.3M vs $140.6M*; Primary EPS $0.05 vs $0.041*; S&P EBITDA “actual” $17.7M* vs $22.4M* consensus, while company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $22.5M (definitions differ) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Forward quarters (snapshot): S&P shows consensus Revenue of $135.4M* (Q4’25) and $134.0M* (Q1’26), and Primary EPS of $0.0075* (Q4’25) and $0.044* (Q1’26). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Implications: Estimates may need to incorporate higher price realization, MEATER headwinds, and gross margin pressure from mix/promotions and tariffs, with company mitigation (pricing, supply-chain savings, SG&A controls) offsetting a “majority” of tariff impact per management .
Financial Detail Tables
Q1 2025 Operational Drivers (YoY components of gross margin)
Cash Flow (3 months ended 3/31)
Product/Launches (Q1 2025 context)
Key Quotes
- “We believe we can offset a majority of the tariff impact via our mitigation initiatives with the largest unknown factor being consumer demand and behavior going forward.” — CEO .
- “Our inventory on hand is sufficient to serve near-term demand… we have ample liquidity… currently undrawn on our $125 million revolver.” — CFO .
- “Woodridge… brings significant innovation at a more attainable price point… demand outperforming our expectations.” — CEO .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue and Adjusted EPS outperformed S&P Global consensus; gross margin compressed on mix/promotions but remained >41%, supported by supply-chain and warranty tailwinds .
- Guidance withdrawal elevates uncertainty; near-term stock narrative hinges on tariff clarity, pricing pass-through, and proof that mitigation offsets most cost headwinds .
- Grills momentum (Woodridge) and strong field execution (sell-through, demos, Costco roadshows) provide a buffer against macro softness .
- MEATER remains a drag; management is pivoting to wholesale channels and cutting costs—watch for stabilization signals over coming quarters .
- Balance sheet/liquidity appear adequate (liquidity ~$168M; undrawn revolver), and inventory is being tightly managed with PO reductions to preserve cash .
- Estimate models should reflect higher pricing, continued NA strength vs RoW weakness, and potential EBITDA definition mismatches vs company-reported Adjusted EBITDA .
- Catalysts: tariff policy developments, consumer elasticity to pricing, summer sell-through data, and potential guidance reinstatement in 2H.
Asterisked values are from S&P Global consensus/actuals and may reflect differing metric definitions. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*