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Traeger, Inc. (COOK)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2024 revenue grew 3.7% to $122.1M, led by 32.5% growth in Grills; gross margin expanded 440 bps to 42.3% and Adjusted EBITDA rose to $12.3M, though GAAP net loss was $(19.8)M .
  • Management raised FY24 guidance: revenue to $595–$605M, gross margin to 41.8%–42.3%, and Adjusted EBITDA to $78–$81M, citing stronger 2H margin drivers and better grill sell-through/replenishment .
  • Strength came from sub-$1,000 grills and effective holiday promotions; margins benefited from lower supply chain costs (320 bps), a one-time freight credit (110 bps), and other efficiencies, partially offset by ~210 bps promotional dilution .
  • Key risk: Accessories (MEATER) remains pressured near term despite marketing changes and new product launches; company expects sequential improvement but continues to plan for 4Q Accessories decline .
  • Potential stock catalysts: margin re-acceleration and repeated guidance raises vs. headwinds in Accessories and lingering macro sensitivity; company argues the grill category has likely found a trough and expects better 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Returned to top-line growth: total revenue +3.7% YoY; Grills +32.5% on strong promotions and replenishment; NA revenue +10.4% YoY .
    • Significant margin expansion: gross margin 42.3% (+440 bps YoY), with 320 bps from lower supply chain costs, 110 bps one-time freight credit, 70 bps warranty, 50 bps pellet mill efficiency, and other +100 bps .
    • Raised FY24 outlook again: revenue $595–$605M, GM 41.8%–42.3%, and Adjusted EBITDA $78–$81M; CEO: “results…ahead of our expectations,” positioning for growth as innovation pipeline accelerates .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Accessories down 31.3% YoY to $24.6M on MEATER weakness and lower Traeger-branded accessories; Rest of World revenue down 40.1% (notably Europe/MEATER partnership-related) .
    • Mix and promotional dynamics pressured ASPs; management acknowledged 210 bps GM dilution tied to promotions (e.g., Labor Day), and expects Q4 GM to be the lowest of the year given mix and holiday promos .
    • Consumables revenue fell 11.2% to $22.5M due to seasonal ordering shifts; management flagged timing effects and expects 4Q consumables to return to growth .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024
Revenue ($M)$117.7 $168.5 $122.1
Gross Margin %37.9% 42.9% 42.3%
Net Loss ($M)$(19.3) $(2.6) $(19.8)
Net Loss per Diluted Share ($)$(0.16) $(0.02) $(0.15)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$4.7 $26.8 $12.3
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) ($M)$(14.3) $7.3 $(7.4)

Segment breakdown (Q3 2024):

SegmentQ3 2024 Revenue ($M)YoY %Notes
Grills$74.9 +32.5% Strong promotions, replenishment; volume up, ASP lower on mix/DI/pricing
Consumables$22.5 −11.2% Seasonal ordering shifts; POS positive; 4Q expected to grow
Accessories$24.6 −31.3% MEATER and Traeger accessories down; 4Q Accessories still expected down

Geography (Q3 2024 YoY):

RegionYoY %Commentary
North America+10.4% Retail sell-through strength; replenishment
Rest of World−40.1% Lower sales related to a European product partnership with MEATER

Additional KPIs and P&L items (Q3 2024):

  • Gross profit $51.7M ; Sales & Marketing $26.2M ; G&A $24.1M .
  • Cash & cash equivalents $16.9M; Inventory $105.1M (balance sheet) .
  • Debt and liquidity: Total debt $416M; net debt $399M; total liquidity $177M .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueFY 2024$590–$605M $595–$605M Raised low end
Gross MarginFY 202440.5%–41.5% 41.8%–42.3% Raised
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2024$74–$79M $78–$81M Raised

Management notes: FY24 GM uplift reflects larger-than-expected benefits, including higher mix of direct import grills and continued supply-chain tailwinds; Grills now expected to grow low single-digits for the year, while Accessories pressured by MEATER .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2024)Current Period (Q3 2024)Trend
Promotions & price sensitivityLeaning into promotions; sub-$1,000 strength; volumes up high-double digits with ASP down mid-double digits in Q2 . Q1 emphasized strategic pricing within guardrails .Labor Day promotion successful; 210 bps GM dilution; Q4 promo consistent with prior years; unit strength at sub-$1,000 price points .Stable strategy; effective demand lever with margin discipline.
Supply chain/freightGM tailwinds from inbound freight; more spot exposure by design; fixed contract rolls off 2025 . Q1 cited inbound tailwind .Q3 GM drivers: −320 bps supply chain cost; +110 bps one-time freight credit; sustained DI mix benefit .Tailwind moderating but still positive; one-time effects in Q3.
MEATER/AccessoriesQ2: demand creation strategy change hurt DTC; pivoting back to prospecting; pipeline of innovation; 2/3 sales in 2H .Q3: MEATER still soft; launched Pro XL and Pro Duo; 4Q weighted business; ramping performance marketing; 4Q Accessories planned down YoY .Near-term headwind; sequential improvement targeted.
Category/macroQ2: POS positive; cautious on back half; load-in in Q4 .Category down ~1.5–2% YTD; likely trough found; 2025 expected better with interest-rate relief and housing activity .Improving backdrop into 2025.
InternationalQ2: Canada big box strong; Europe soft; working down EU inventories .ROW −40% YoY largely tied to EU/MEATER partnership; focus on long-term opportunity .Mixed; EU pressure persists.
Sourcing/tariffsDiversifying beyond China; contingency for tariff regime shifts .80% grills China/20% Vietnam shifting higher to VN; accessories China; MEATER Taiwan; pellets US; wood pellet grills not currently tariffed; building optionality (VN, other Asia, Mexico) .Risk managed via diversification optionality.
Innovation pipelineContinuous investment through cycle; 4Q load-in ahead of 2025 launches .“Accelerates into 2025 and beyond”; multi-year visibility; strong product execution focus .Increasing cadence into 2025.
Channel inventoryQ2 channels “very clean” after strong POS .Channel inventory “healthy” exiting Q3; positioned for new product shipments .Healthy and supportive of replenishment.

Management Commentary

  • “We returned to top line growth… revenue growth of 4%… growth driven by… Grills… 32%… gross margin expanded by 440 basis points… adjusted EBITDA of $12 million… we are… raising our fiscal 2024 financial guidance.”
  • “Unaided brand awareness… increased by approximately 20% vs 2022… our NPS remains materially higher than any other outdoor cooking brand.”
  • “Third quarter gross margin expansion was driven by… 320 bps lower supply chain costs… 110 bps one-time credit… 70 bps warranty… 50 bps pellet mill efficiency… partially offset by dilution of 210 bps.”
  • On tariffs and sourcing: “About 80% of Grills are manufactured in China, about 20% in Vietnam… wood pellet grills are not included on the import code… we are adding a very large manufacturing partner in Vietnam… we’ve been building optionality across Asia and looking at Mexico.”
  • On category trajectory: “We think the category… found bottom… we believe that ‘25 will be a better year… lower interest rates… housing… tees up a very successful next 2 to 3 years.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Q4 outlook: Grill growth to moderate from Q3 levels; expect marginal growth in Q4, with earlier load-ins largely “in line” with prior view .
  • Gross margin cadence: Q4 GM to be the lowest quarter due to holiday promotions, mix, and the absence of Q3’s one-time freight credit (110 bps) .
  • Promotions as a lever: Consumers respond to value at sub-$1,000 price points; Q4 promo similar to historical holiday cadence; promotions used within brand/margin guardrails .
  • Consumables timing: 3Q sell-through positive but sell-in down on pacing; expect a return to reported growth in Q4; attach rates and connected usage remain healthy .
  • Freight/contract dynamics: Spot volatility noted during the year; fixed contract above spot rolls off next year—still a tailwind, albeit smaller .
  • MEATER specifics: Marketing transition still being addressed; 4Q is peak season; small overlap between MEATER owners and Traeger owners—cross-pollination opportunity .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street (S&P Global) consensus for Q3 2024 revenue and EPS was unavailable at time of writing due to data access limits; as a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs. consensus. The company stated results were “ahead of our expectations” and raised FY24 guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Margin story intact and compounding: sustained GM expansion on lower supply chain costs, DI mix, and internal initiatives, with incremental upside demonstrated by Q3’s one-time freight credit; Q4 margin dip is seasonal and modeled .
  • Demand proven at value price points: sub-$1,000 grills and well-timed promotions remain effective levers without abandoning premium posture; guardrails limit brand/margin risk .
  • Guidance momentum: FY24 revenue, GM, and Adjusted EBITDA all raised again; reinforces operational execution and 2H drivers (replenishment, load-ins, margin) .
  • Category trough and 2025 setup: Management suggests category has bottomed; falling rates and housing turnover could boost big-ticket durables; innovation cadence accelerates in 2025, potentially improving mix and pricing power .
  • Watch MEATER: Near-term headwind to Accessories persists into Q4 despite new products and marketing pivot; sequential improvement is possible but execution risk remains .
  • International mixed: ROW pressure (notably Europe/MEATER) offsets NA strength; long-term play remains increasing brand awareness and retail activation abroad .
  • Sourcing optionality mitigates tariff risk: Vietnam capacity ramp plus broader Asia/Mexico options provide levers if tariff landscape worsens; pellet grills currently not tariffed .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • Operating expenses: Sales & Marketing $26.2M (+$0.3M YoY); G&A $24.1M (−$0.7M YoY); both down as % of sales by 60 bps and 130 bps, respectively .
  • Balance sheet: Cash $16.9M; Inventory $105.1M (appropriate vs outlook); total net debt $399M; total liquidity $177M .
  • Segment demand signals: Grills volume robust with lower ASPs; consumables POS positive; Accessories decline centered on MEATER’s DTC channel .

Sources: Q3 2024 press release and 8-K (Item 2.02), Q3 2024 earnings call transcript; prior Q1 and Q2 2024 results and call transcripts .