MC
Mr. Cooper Group Inc. (COOP)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- COOP delivered a solid quarter with net income of $88M ($1.35 diluted EPS), total revenues of $560M, and pretax operating income of $255M; Servicing operating EBT landed at the high end of guidance, while Originations exceeded guidance modestly .
- Against S&P Global consensus, EPS (Primary) was a small beat at $2.97 vs $2.92*, while revenue missed at $560M vs $615M*; the revenue shortfall was largely driven by lower “service related” revenue and a negative MSR mark, partially offset by hedge gains (72% coverage) .
- Management highlighted continued operating leverage in Servicing and momentum in DTC cash-out and second-lien products; ROTCE was 16.8% (vs 15.8% prior quarter) and the servicing portfolio ended at $1.514T (+33% y/y) .
- Strategic catalyst: pending combination with Rocket Companies; COOP did not take Q&A due to the transaction and signaled no share repurchases until close (expected 4Q25) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- Servicing execution and leverage: Pretax operating income reached $332M (vs $318M in Q4), at the high end of guidance, aided by slower CPR and lower amortization; ROTCE improved to 16.8% .
- Originations outperformance: Originations EBT was $53M vs prior guide of $30–$50M for Q1; strong momentum in cash-out refis and second liens (second liens rose from 12% to 21% of DTC) .
- Scale and quality recognition: Servicing portfolio $1.514T; Fannie Mae STAR Award across all categories; delinquency improved (60+ DPD 1.5%); COOP emphasized AI-enabled AgentIQ productivity gains .
-
What Went Wrong
- Revenue shortfall vs consensus: Total revenue of $560M vs S&P Global consensus $615M*, reflecting lower service-related revenue and a negative MSR mark net of hedges .
- MSR mark-down on falling rates: Other mark-to-market (net of hedges) was -$82M; coverage ratio of 72% slightly below 75% target; MSR value ended at 155 bps of UPB (5.4x multiple) .
- Legal/transition costs: $26M in transaction/transition charges for Flagstar integration and $33M legal fees tied to a prior ruling; Corporate/Other segment pressure persisted .
Financial Results
Segment performance
KPIs
Estimate comparison (S&P Global consensus)
Values with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.
Context: Company-reported GAAP diluted EPS was $1.35; S&P’s “Primary EPS” reflects SPGI methodology/adjustments and is the basis for consensus comparisons .
Guidance Changes
No explicit top-line, margin, OpEx, tax rate, or segment guidance beyond the items above was provided for forward quarters in the Q1 call .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO Jay Bray: “This was another strong quarter…positioned Mr. Cooper to join forces with Rocket to create the industry’s leading integrated homeownership platform… already working closely with Rocket on post-close planning” .
- President Mike Weinbach: “Servicing [operating] expenses declined as a percentage of the portfolio by 36 bps y/y… AgentIQ…puts relevant prompts on the screen, allowing agents to empathetically focus on the customer while providing answers quickly and efficiently” .
- CFO Kurt Johnson: “Net income was $88M which included $255M pretax operating earnings, offset by an $82M negative MSR mark… hedge gains $289M (72% coverage)… Liquidity ended the quarter at $3.9B… capital ratio 25.5%… repurchases suspended until Rocket close; evaluating early retirement of 2026 notes” .
Q&A Highlights
- There was no Q&A on the Q1 2025 call due to the pending Rocket Companies combination; the company delivered prepared remarks only .
- For context, the prior quarter’s Q&A emphasized: subservicing growth (capital-light), ROTCE range drivers, correspondent share gains, DTC capacity and home equity runway, bulk MSR pipeline, and cost leverage in servicing .
Estimates Context
- Revenue: $560M actual vs $614.7M S&P Global consensus* → MISS .
- EPS: S&P Global Primary EPS $2.97 actual vs $2.92 consensus* → BEAT; note company GAAP diluted EPS was $1.35 (different basis) .
- Coverage: 7 revenue estimates and 8 EPS estimates in the period*.
Values with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.
Where estimates may adjust:
- Expect slight downward revenue revisions given the top-line miss, offset by stable to upward EPS revisions reflecting resilient operating income and strong servicing operating leverage despite the MSR mark .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core operating engine remains robust: Servicing operating EBT at the high end of guidance with improving ROTCE to 16.8% underscores durable fee-based earnings and operating leverage .
- Originations upside lever intact: DTC cash-outs/second liens and correspondent scale provide counter-cyclical earnings and incremental optionality if rates dip; Q1 beat prior guide .
- MSR volatility is managed: Negative MSR mark on falling rates was cushioned by consistent hedge performance (72% coverage), maintaining earnings predictability through cycles .
- Balance sheet optionality: $3.9B liquidity, 25.5% capital ratio, and callable 2026 notes provide flexibility; buybacks paused ahead of Rocket close .
- Strategic catalyst: Pending Rocket combination can expand brand-led origination funnel and accelerate AI/digital initiatives across an at-scale homeownership platform .
- Near-term trading lens: Mixed headline (revenue miss, EPS beat on S&P basis) with positive qualitative tone and deal-related scarcity of Q&A; stock sensitivity likely to updates on regulatory approvals/timing for Rocket and ongoing operating leverage prints .
- Medium-term thesis: Capital-light fee growth (subservicing/master servicing), disciplined MSR deployment, and AI-driven efficiency gains support sustained mid-to-high-teens ROTCE through 2025–2026, absent severe macro shocks .
Sources
- Q1 2025 8-K earnings press release and exhibits .
- Q1 2025 standalone press release .
- Q1 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks; no Q&A) .
- Q4 2024 press release and 8-K (for prior-quarter comps and guidance) .
- Q3 2024 press release and call (trend context) .
- S&P Global consensus and actuals (Primary EPS, Revenue, estimate counts)*.
Values with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.