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    COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW (COST)

    COST Q3 2025 App Adoption Tops 50%, Digital Sales Reach 12%

    Reported on May 29, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$1008.74Last close (May 29, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$1002.30Open (May 30, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-6.44(-0.64%)
    • Digital and e-commerce momentum: Management emphasizes that over 50% of members have already downloaded the app and sees significant opportunity to further increase digital engagement. This tailwind could drive broader e-commerce growth and improve checkout speed, strengthening overall sales performance.
    • Operational and supply chain enhancements: Investment in new depots and optimization of the Costco Logistics network—especially for big and bulky items—underpins cost efficiencies and improved throughput, which can help maintain strong margins despite a challenging macro environment.
    • Resilient membership growth and strategic pricing discipline: Strong membership metrics with robust renewal rates, despite recent fee increases, and a disciplined approach to pricing essential items support long-term member loyalty and sales growth, reinforcing Costco’s core value proposition.
    • Tariff & Inflation Pressure: Management acknowledged that tariff-induced cost increases could force selective price hikes on discretionary items, potentially impacting sales volumes and margins when members face higher prices on nonessential goods.
    • Digital Membership Renewal Concerns: Executives noted that digital members tend to renew at lower rates due to their younger demographics and promotional sign-ups, which may erode overall membership renewal strength over time.
    • Store Capacity and Overcrowding Risks: Some high-volume U.S. clubs (approximately 40 centers) are approaching capacity limits, potentially degrading the member experience through difficulties like parking and longer in-store wait times, which could slow future growth.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

    FY 2025

    $5 billion

    No specific forward guidance provided

    no current guidance

    Membership Fee Income

    FY 2025

    Largest impact expected in Q4 FY 2025 and Q1 FY 2026

    No specific forward guidance provided

    no current guidance

    New Warehouse Openings

    FY 2025

    28 new warehouses (3 relocations, 25 net new buildings)

    No specific forward guidance provided

    no current guidance

    SG&A Impact from Wage Increases

    FY 2025

    13 basis point headwind with mid-single digit YoY impact

    No specific forward guidance provided

    no current guidance

    Foreign Exchange Headwinds

    FY 2025

    Anticipated for the remainder of the fiscal year

    No specific forward guidance provided

    no current guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Digital Engagement & E-commerce Growth

    Recurring focus on strong comparable sales growth, enhanced digital engagement strategies (e.g., digital MVM, personalized digital communication, and robust e-commerce sales figures in Q2, Q1, and Q4)

    Continued robust e-commerce sales (14.8% growth and 15.7% FX‐adjusted), further technology investments such as Buy Now Pay Later, personalized recommendations and digital checkout enhancements

    Consistent emphasis on digital growth with enhanced technology initiatives to drive member engagement and higher sales.

    Membership Growth & Renewal Dynamics

    Steady membership growth with consistently high renewal rates; discussions around digital sign-ups affecting renewal rates and fee increases in previous periods (Q2, Q1, Q4)

    Strong membership expansion with record fee income and rising household members, but slightly lower renewal rates due to a higher proportion of digital memberships and the impact of a recent membership fee increase

    Recurring robust growth with nuanced dynamics in renewal rates due to digital sign-ups; overall sentiment remains positive with minor headwinds.

    Supply Chain & Operational Efficiency

    Focus on inventory management, leveraging technology for improved fulfillment, and local sourcing to mitigate disruptions in Q1, Q2, and Q4 (e.g., managing port strikes and ramping up local production)

    Emphasis on optimizing depot operations and Costco Logistics investments, adoption of Scan and Go tests for front-end efficiency, and proactive tariff management to stabilize supply chain flows

    Recurring commitment to operational efficiency with an added boost of technology-driven enhancements, maintaining stability amid external challenges.

    Tariff, Inflation & Cost Pressures

    Mixed sentiment: previous periods highlighted rising costs, deflationary pressures in select commodities, and proactive measures (tariff mitigation and strategic sourcing) while also noting wage impacts on SG&A

    Discussion of an evolving tariff environment with strategic rerouting of imports, a mix of inflationary/deflationary impacts on commodities, and notable cost pressures such as a significant LIFO charge, all managed proactively

    Recurring challenges with cost pressures and tariffs; sentiment remains mixed but proactive mitigation strategies have been enhanced.

    International Expansion & Market Performance

    Strong global expansion with regular new warehouse openings and positive international comparable sales; emphasis on localization initiatives and balanced growth between domestic and international markets in Q1, Q2, and Q4

    Robust Q3 performance with 9 new warehouses opened (including relocations and global sites) and plans for 10 additional openings in Q4, alongside solid international comparable sales and continued localization efforts

    Recurring and accelerating expansion globally; consistent strategic emphasis on building a larger international footprint.

    Retail Media & Alternative Revenue Streams

    Earlier periods (Q1, Q2, Q4) discussed significant potential and early initiatives in retail media, with detailed campaigns and technology infrastructure being developed as an alternative revenue source

    Brief update in Q3 focusing on building retail media capabilities as part of a broader profitability strategy, with fewer specific metrics provided

    A recurring but evolving topic; momentum appears to be transitioning from early stage trials to a more cautious developmental phase with significant future potential.

    Store Capacity & In-Store Experience

    Previous calls (Q1, Q2, Q4) outlined new warehouse openings, initiatives to decongest high-volume stores, extended gas station hours, and technology improvements for customer throughput

    Q3 emphasizes high-volume warehouse improvements, with targeted openings intended to alleviate congestion, new technology pilots (e.g., Scan and Go), and operational enhancements to boost in-store experience

    Recurring focus with increased emphasis on technology and strategic warehouse location planning to further enhance the member experience.

    Labor Cost Pressures

    Throughout Q1, Q2, and Q4 discussions, rising wages and employee investment were noted as a cost pressure, partially offset by productivity gains and sales leverage

    Q3 reports higher SG&A due to recent employee wage increases (including the March agreement and July increases), with a controlled and offset impact through productivity improvements

    Recurring concern as labor costs continue to rise, but management remains focused on mitigating impacts with efficiency gains.

    Physical Store Technology Upgrades

    Q4 focused on membership card scanners and enhanced app capabilities, with Q2 mentioning front door scanning to manage register openings; Q1 had minimal mention

    Q3 highlights further digital membership card usage and successful Scan and Go trials, demonstrating strong member adoption and efficiency improvements at checkout

    A recurring and increasingly positive trend, with more advanced technology upgrades enhancing the physical store experience.

    Consumer Electronics Segment Performance

    Previously, Q2 reported flat to slight growth with notable holiday excitement and Q4 emphasized promotional activities and added service components; Q1 did not provide explicit details

    Q3 noted higher sales in April and market share gains, although with an acknowledgment of a potential cyclical slowdown as the previous year's volume and promotional effects cycle out

    A recurring topic with periodic promotional spikes; performance remains mixed but exhibits pockets of strength.

    Gasoline Volume Trends

    Q4 reported modest 3% growth, while Q2 and Q1 noted fluctuating volumes driven by pricing and extended hours issues (with some periods showing negative growth due to lower prices)

    Q3 highlighted record gallon weeks boosted by extended gas station hours, despite negative comparable sales due to lower average prices per gallon

    Recurring volatility with operational improvements (extended hours) offset by pricing pressures; sentiment remains cautious but adaptive.

    Store Expansion & Infrastructure Development

    Q4, Q2, and Q1 consistently emphasized steady warehouse openings domestically and internationally, with detailed projections and capital expenditure increases, highlighting balanced growth and infrastructure readiness

    Q3 showcased 9 newly opened warehouses with plans for 10 additional openings in Q4, reinforcing an expected annual expansion total, alongside a focus on decongesting high-volume locations for better infrastructure performance

    A recurring and very positive growth driver; sustained investment in physical expansion continues to be a major strategic focus.

    1. Margin Performance
      Q: Will EBIT margins change soon?
      A: Management emphasized steady long‐term margin growth despite typical quarterly fluctuations from cyclical cost pressures and strategic pricing investments, underscoring a commitment to delivering member value over time.

    2. LIFO Charges
      Q: How will LIFO charges behave next quarter?
      A: Management explained that a $130M true‐up was recorded in Q3 with an expected incremental charge of $40–50M in Q4 if inflation persists, keeping the overall impact modest relative to total U.S. inventory costs.

    3. Margin & Tariff
      Q: Can core margin improvements continue?
      A: Management noted that while some gains in core margins were unique to Q3—thanks to lower costs on select items—the ongoing, unpredictable tariff environment means they remain focused on long‐term sourcing and pricing adjustments to support future margins.

    4. Growth Sustainability
      Q: Is nonfood growth decelerating?
      A: Management acknowledged that with some volume cycling off (like last year’s gift card promotions) and online sales maturing, nonfood growth is expected to ease to the high single-digit range while continued warehouse expansions support overall growth.

    5. Inventory & Pricing
      Q: Will pricing pass-through affect discretionary sales?
      A: Management stressed an agile pricing strategy where essential items are protected from hikes, though some discretionary products might see minor pass-throughs—all managed via a limited SKU approach to keep member prices competitive.

    6. Pricing & Volume Impact
      Q: Does holding price boost volume?
      A: Management remarked that proactive price adjustments have strengthened Costco’s competitive position, resulting in notable increases in shopping frequency and unit volumes, reflecting disciplined pricing practices.

    7. Pull Forward & Tariff Quantification
      Q: How significant is the tariff pull forward?
      A: Management acknowledged that while buyers moved quickly to mitigate tariff impacts, quantifying the exact pull forward effect proved challenging due to the dynamic nature of their sourcing and pricing strategies.

    8. Logistics & Tariffs
      Q: Will the Florida depot improve supply chain efficiency?
      A: Management highlighted that new depots, such as the one in Florida, enhance operational efficiency by speeding up product movement, while buying teams remain nimble in adjusting for any tariff impacts.

    9. Digital & Logistics
      Q: What’s digital’s share in Costco sales?
      A: Management noted that digital channels account for about 8–12% of total revenue—with variations depending on what’s included—and that Costco Logistics handles the majority of its big and bulky deliveries, underpinning steady e-commerce growth.

    10. Tech & Gas
      Q: Any advances in digital tech or gas station hours?
      A: Management described encouraging results from technologies like Scan and Go and digital wallet integrations that speed up checkout, and confirmed that extended gas station hours are under continuous review to further ease the shopping experience.

    11. Grocery Inflation
      Q: What’s the current grocery inflation rate?
      A: Management explained that grocery inflation remains in the low single digits, with offsetting trends—where rising prices on some items are balanced by declines on others—keeping overall inflation moderate.

    12. Payment Options
      Q: How beneficial are firm payment partnerships?
      A: Management sees these partnerships as a way to offer members enhanced financing options for big-ticket purchases while maintaining exclusive pricing, thereby increasing overall transaction flexibility.

    13. Membership Impact
      Q: Did fee hikes affect membership growth?
      A: Management reported strong membership metrics with robust growth and renewal rates domestically and internationally, despite the recent fee increase, reflecting enduring customer loyalty.

    14. Renewal Trends
      Q: Will lower digital renewals normalize?
      A: Management indicated that although digital members—typically younger and associated with promotional sign-ups—renew at a slightly lower rate, ongoing engagement initiatives are expected to gradually improve these renewal numbers over time.

    Research analysts covering COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW.