Copa Holdings - Q3 2024
November 21, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Copa Holdings' third quarter earnings call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, you will have to press star 11 on your telephone. If your question has been answered and you wish to remove yourself from the queue, simply press star 11 again. As a reminder, this call is being webcast and recorded on November 21st, 2024. Now, I will turn the conference call over to Daniel Tapia, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Daniel Tapia (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Jonathan, and welcome everyone to our third quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Pedro Heilbron, CEO of Copa Holdings, and José Montero, our CFO. First, Pedro will start by going over our third quarter highlights, followed by José, who will discuss our financial results. Immediately after, we will open the call for questions from analysts. Copa Holdings' financial reports have been prepared in accordance with international financial reporting standards. In today's call, we will discuss non-IFRS financial measures. A reconciliation of the non-IFRS to IFRS financial measures can be found in our earnings release, which has been posted on the company's website, copaholdings.com. Our discussion today will also contain forward-looking statements, not limited to historical facts that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations, and/or intentions regarding future events and results.
These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are based on assumptions subject to change. Many of these are discussed in our annual report filed with the SEC. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Pedro Heilbron.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Thank you, Daniel. Good morning to all, and thanks for participating in our third quarter earnings call. First, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to all our coworkers for their commitment to the company. Their dedication and hard work have been instrumental in keeping Copa at the forefront of Latin American aviation. To them, as always, my highest regards and admiration. We're pleased to once again report solid financial results for the quarter, delivering a strong and industry-leading operating margin of 20.3%. These financial results are in part driven by our disciplined approach to executing our business strategy, including our permanent focus on cost efficiencies, which allow us to continue delivering industry-leading operating margins even with the softer yield environment we have observed over the past 12 months.
Going forward, our focus on our business strategy and commitment to reducing unit costs remain central to achieving strong financial results and are key to further strengthening Copa's competitive position in Latin America. Among the main highlights for Q3, capacity increased by 9.5% year-over-year. Passenger traffic grew 7.6% compared to the same period in 2023. Unit cost, excluding fuel or CASM ex, came in at $0.057, a 1.6% decrease compared to Q3 2023, mainly driven by lower sales and distribution costs. Passenger yield came in at $0.122, 8.7% lower year-over-year, mostly due to the last-minute suspension of flights between Panama and Venezuela at the end of July, weaker currencies in certain countries in Latin America, and additional industry capacity in the region. And load factor came in at 86.2%, 1.6 percentage points lower year-over-year.
As a result, unit revenues, or RASM, came in at $0.11, a 10.1% decrease compared to Q3 2023. As mentioned before, we delivered an operating margin of 20.3%. Excluding the impact of the Panama-Venezuela flight suspensions, we estimate that we would have reported an operating margin of 21.2% for the quarter. On the operational front, Copa Airlines delivered an on-time performance of 87.3% and a completion factor of 99.6% for the quarter, once again positioning ourselves among the best in the industry. Regarding our fleet plan, due to delays in Boeing's delivery schedule, the arrival of our last two aircraft for the year was postponed by a few months. Nonetheless, we still expect to receive two 737 MAX 8s before year-end, one at the end of this month and one in December.
These two deliveries will bring our fleet to a total of 112 aircraft by the end of the year. Regarding 2025 deliveries, Boeing has updated its delivery schedule to account for the recent delays, and we now plan to receive 11 Boeing 737 MAX 8s next year to end the year with a fleet of 123 aircraft. This delivery schedule has production ramp-up assumptions that will need to materialize, so actual aircraft deliveries could change. As you saw in our earnings release issued yesterday, we issued preliminary guidance for 2025, in which we expect to grow our capacity within a range of 7% to 9%. José will provide more details regarding our preliminary guidance for 2025. To summarize, we again delivered industry-leading financial results for the third quarter. We continue to deliver on our cost execution, which remains key to the company's strategy going forward.
We expect to grow capacity by high single digits in 2025 and plan to continue strengthening our Hub of the Americas in Panama, and as always, our team continues to deliver world-class operational results while providing the consistent and reliable travel experience our passengers expect from us. Finally, we firmly believe that our business model remains as robust and relevant as ever, and that our Hub of the Americas in Panama is the best connecting hub in Latin America, making us the best-positioned airline in our region to consistently deliver industry-leading results. Now, I'll turn it over to José, who will go over our financial results in more detail.
José Montero (CFO)
Thank you, Pedro. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for being with us today. I'd like to join Pedro in acknowledging our great team for all their efforts to deliver a world-class service to our passengers. I will start by going over our third quarter results. We reported a net profit for the quarter of $146 million or $3.50 per share. We reported a quarterly operating profit of $173.7 million and an operating margin of 20.3%. Capacity came in at 7.8 billion available seat miles, or 9.5% higher than in Q3 2023. Load factor came in at 86.2% for the quarter, a 1.6 percentage point decrease compared to the same period in 2023, and our passenger yields decreased by 8.7% to $0.122. As a result, unit revenues came in at $0.11, or 10.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2023.
Mainly driven by a lower fuel price, unit costs for CASM decreased to $0.087, or 6.2% lower year-over-year. CASM, excluding fuel, came in at $0.057, a 1.6% decrease versus Q3 2023, mainly driven by lower sales and distribution costs as a result of higher penetration of both the direct sales and lower-cost NDC travel agency channels, as well as our continued focus in maintaining the rest of our costs low. I'm going to spend some time now discussing our balance sheet and liquidity. As of the end of the third quarter, we had assets of close to $5.5 billion. As to cash, short- and long-term investments, we ended the quarter with over $1.3 billion, which represents 36% of our last 12 months' revenues.
In terms of debt, we ended the quarter with $1.86 billion in debt and lease liabilities and came in with an Adjusted Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6 times. I'm pleased to report that our average cost of debt, which continues to be comprised solely of aircraft-related debt, is currently in the range of 3.4%, with around 65% of our debt being fixed. Turning now to our fleet, during the quarter, we received one Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, ending the third quarter with a total fleet of 110 aircraft comprised of 68 737-800s, 32 737 MAX 9s, nine 737-700s, and one 737 MAX 8. These figures include one 737-800 freighter and the nine 737-800s operated by Wingo.
With regards to the return of value to our shareholders, I'm pleased to announce that the company will make its third dividend payment of the year of $1.61 per share on December 13th to all shareholders of record as of December 2nd. As to our outlook, we can provide the following guidance update for the full year 2024. We expect to increase our capacity in ASMs by approximately 9% year-over-year, and we expect to deliver an operating margin within the range of 21% to 22%. We're basing our outlook on the following assumptions: load factor of approximately 86%, unit revenues within the range of 11.4 cents, CASM ex fuel to be in the range of 5.8 cents, and we're expecting an all-in fuel price of $2.67 per gallon.
In anticipation of 2025, based on the current and preliminary expectations of aircraft deliveries, we're projecting a year-over-year ASM growth of between 7% and 9%. Additionally, we are projecting CASM ex fuel at approximately $0.058. As you might recall, this is in line with the CASM ex fuel target we shared with you back in our 2023 Investor Day. So, in summary, we delivered great results for the third quarter, and we expect to deliver once again leading operating margins for the full year 2024, with low unit costs, which continue to strengthen our solid financial position while providing outstanding return of value to our shareholders. Thank you, and with that, we'll open the call to some questions.
Operator (participant)
Certainly, and our first question for today comes from the line of Savi Syth from Raymond James. Your question, please.
Savi Syth (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning. If I might, on the revisions that you had for 2024, I was kind of curious if the unit revenue coming down a little bit there is related to kind of Venezuela flight suspensions taking longer, or if you're seeing any other kind of weakness or softness in the market?
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Yeah, this is Pedro here. So yes, in part, it's Venezuela. It took us a while to redeploy those aircraft. We were waiting for a restart date, which hasn't happened yet. So we kept the planes closed. Plus, it takes a while to start selling a flight and spool it up. So we could not redeploy those aircraft the following day. That's been happening mostly throughout November, some in the December high season. So I would say that probably the bigger quarter-over-quarter change.
José Montero (CFO)
Yeah, well, and in addition to that, Savi, we did highlight the Brazil currency or kind of the Brazil revenues coming in slightly below our expectations. So that's also driving the adjustment that we made.
Savi Syth (Managing Director)
Makes sense. And if I might just turn to your 2025 capacity view, we're kind of recognizing that that's preliminary. I think before you had wanted to grow low double digits. And wondering if does demand still support low double digits, and what's the risk that competitors backfill that? And obviously, what I'm trying to get here is, is the supply tight enough where maybe you're exchanging lower capacity for higher yield here, or is there a risk that your competitors kind of backfill that?
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Right. So our ASM guidance is directly related to Boeing deliveries. So that's what's driving that. And as a matter of fact, we're actually staying with two 737-700s, which in our fleet plan three months ago were supposed to leave by 2025. So we're going to stay with those aircraft to make up for delayed Boeing deliveries. So that's driving our capacity. We have demand to grow a little bit faster than that. However, less capacity is always good for yield. So we're comfortable. We're fine with growing between 7% and 9% next year. I think it's a good balance between keeping demand at strong, healthy levels, demand and supply, of course, and also further strengthening our hub in Panama.
Savi Syth (Managing Director)
That's what I thought. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you, and our next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg from Deutsche Bank. Your question, please.
Michael Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst)
Oh, hey, good morning, everyone. I do have a couple here. I guess, for starters, I know one of your competitors in Colombia did indicate that the market was starting to stabilize somewhat. And so I'm curious if you can just talk about the competitive situation there. Maybe you're seeing something similar, or maybe not.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Not sure what they meant by that, but we tend to grow with demand, and our potential to capture the piece of that demand that belongs or corresponds to us. So we're very measured and pragmatic about how we grow and how we strengthen the hub. And that's why one of the reasons, not the only reason why we are able to return strong operating margins and strong operating results, financial results over time. I cannot say that of every competitor. Some have been growing maybe a little bit too fast. I won't mention names, but if that's stabilizing, it's probably good for the market, and it should mean, I don't know, a better balance between demand and supply.
Michael Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst)
Okay. Okay. And then just a follow-up here. I thought it was interesting. Normally, once in a while, we'll see Copa pull out of a market, right? The market isn't working, and for a whole bunch of different reasons, it's kind of a one-off. I thought it was interesting that I think, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like you're actually going to be pulling out of two markets. Maybe you've already pulled out of two Mexican markets. One is Tulum, and the other is Santa Lucía, the alternative Mexico City airport. Is that a Mexican FX macro reason? Is it?
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
No.
Michael Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst)
I know Tulum, everybody rushed into the market at the same time, and maybe that's an oversupply situation. What's behind those, Pedro?
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
No, don't say that, Mike. No, I'll tell you. We're temporarily only pulling out of four markets, actually. The two you mentioned, but also Armenia in Colombia and Santiago de los Caballeros in the Dominican Republic. So it's four markets we're pulling out temporarily. We should be back before the end of next year or 2025. And the reason we're doing that is also tied to aircraft deliveries. So these are four markets that have an alternative airport around the corner.
Michael Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst)
I see.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Less than 40 minutes, or on average, 40 minutes away, we have an alternative airport where we fly with many daily frequencies. These are all less-than-daily markets. So given the delays in aircraft deliveries, there are other markets that do not have the luxury of having like Pereira is 40 minutes from Armenia. In Mexico, the two airports are like 30 or 40 minutes apart. So we're going to deploy that capacity to other markets where we have strong demand and not enough aircraft. Well, these other markets can be served from the nearby airport, and then we should be back by the end of next year. We get the deliveries we're expecting to get.
Michael Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst)
So Pedro, with the fact that you have to pull out of markets because you don't have airplanes and you're getting all these delayed deliveries, how should we think about potential compensation, or how does it show up in maybe your CapEx this year and cash flow? And I don't know if José answers that, because as I see it, not only do you have a special relationship with Boeing, you are Boeing's beachhead in Latin America to the extent that I think the last deal that was signed, we had the President of the United States and the President of Colombia with you to sign that deal. So I would think that you would be getting some form of compensation, and it's going to just show up and reduce CapEx. Any color on that? Thanks for taking my questions.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Thanks, Mike. I'll let José answer the question. But this particular move that we're talking about, we're doing it to strengthen our bottom line and to better serve our whole network. So there won't be a compensation for those specific actions. But José can explain in general how that's working.
José Montero (CFO)
Yeah, Mike, and going back to your comment, yeah, we were very happy and proud to have that signing ceremony with the President of the U.S. and the President of Panama at that moment here in Panama City. But yeah, there is, of course, some contractual relief associated with this situation, but the nature of our contracts with Boeing is confidential. But yeah, it would flow through CapEx to a lesser amount of CapEx going forward.
Michael Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst)
Okay. Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.
José Montero (CFO)
Thank you, Mike.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Thank you, Mike.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI. Your question, please.
Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director)
Hey, good morning. Thank you. So just on the guidance, you're going to generate 21% to 22% EBIT margins this year, which includes the impact of the MAX 9 grounding earlier in the year, and then obviously the close-in cuts that you had to make to Venezuela. So can you just remind us, what do you think those two items cost you, and just remind us of the sizing of those two impacts combined?
José Montero (CFO)
The Venezuela impact was probably, I would say, half a point, and the.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
For the full year.
José Montero (CFO)
For the full year, and the impact of the Boeing grounding, I think we disclosed it to be in the order of about $40 million when it occurred. So that's kind of the full year impact of this, I think, if you can do the math.
Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director)
Okay, that's great, and then go ahead. Sorry.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Sorry, Duane. No, what I was going to add is that there are so many moving parts in our industry that, yeah, it's not like, you know, that it's not simple math.
José Montero (CFO)
It's dynamic. But yeah, you have to argue that our 21% to 22% results for 2024 include those two aspects. Yes, certainly.
Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director)
Yeah, I mean, it does feel like as we think about next year, there's some periods that have some pretty easy compares, but we'll see. A minor question for you. On the interest expense, you called out $4 million related to the adjustment of a discount rate for the calculation of leased aircraft that you're going to return. Is that a one-timer here in the fourth quarter, or is that something that will kind of stay in the interest expense on a go-forward basis?
José Montero (CFO)
It is a periodic adjustment that gets performed related to where interest rates lie. It's just a very arcane IFRS requirement where you basically are truing up the return conditions in the balance sheet with the risk-free rate, basically, that we have. So that liability that shows up in the balance sheet shows the true value of it at the moment where the balance sheet was established. So therefore, let's say on a lowering interest rate environment, that essentially you have to make an adjustment. And so in this case, it's a bad guy. Let's say when interest comes down, there is a higher charge related to that. So I mean, you could argue that it will kind of, from a modeling perspective, it will vary depending on where interest rates fluctuate. It could fluctuate as well.
Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director)
Okay. And then maybe just to sneak one last one in, a couple of the U.S. carriers have been able to kind of look a little bit further out beyond the fourth quarter into early 2025. The implied fourth quarter here, is that indicative of trends that you see into early first quarter? And listen, understand you don't typically comment on two quarters out, but it just feels like the yield environment feels a little bit different in January, February than what we're seeing here in the fourth quarter.
José Montero (CFO)
I think Duane, again, as you just answered kind of the question in the sense that we don't provide a multi-quarter guidance, and we haven't established a guidance for the full year 2025. But I think on a, let's say, sequential basis, you could argue that the comps are sort of similar for Q1 versus what's going on Q4 in terms of on the year-to-year comps, let's say.
Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director)
Okay. Appreciate the thoughts.
José Montero (CFO)
Thank you.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Thank you, Duane.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Stephen Trent from Citi. Your question, please.
Steve Trent (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning, gentlemen, and thanks very much for taking my questions. The first one, I recall in the second quarter that you guys had made an adjustment to a provision for unredeemed ticket revenue that had a little bit of a wiggle impact on the margins. And could you refresh my memory if there was any other adjustment this quarter, or will you still have essentially the same policy on that provision as we move forward? Thank you.
José Montero (CFO)
Yeah. The last quarter, we called out a kind of $0.005 impact. And the reason why we called it out was because it was a catch-up. We just adjusted the factor that we use for unredeemed during the second quarter, and we decided to be conservative, and we did it in a way that it captured the entirety of our assumptions or estimates for 2024. So it was kind of like a catch-up that occurred during Q2, and so there was no other item related to that in Q3.
Steve Trent (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Great.
José Montero (CFO)
No other accounting entry related to the quarter. Nothing beyond that. That's what I meant to say, Steve.
Steve Trent (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
No, very helpful. I appreciate that, José. And just one other quick one. When we think about all of the, I mean, not just you, everybody, the supply chain challenges with the OEMs, could you give us a little bit of your high-level thinking, long-term, how you think about optimizing maybe your owned aircraft versus leased aircraft if the supply chain stuff has made you think differently about the long-term planning? Thanks.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Yeah. Pedro here, Steve. Yeah, that's a complicated matter because it's not like we have that many options. So we have bought some aircraft off-lease. We're staying with some 700s we were expecting to return. And we have even bought spare engines ahead of time. We're very, very proactive in securing parts in the marketplace, even though we have contracts with OEMs that are supposed to cover us. So we've gone beyond the call of duty to make sure that we have the stock. And we're even doing maintenance work, even for engines, that program work where we had to send the engines to the MROs in the past. We're doing that with the support of GE. We're doing that in our maintenance base in Panama also to speed up turnaround times and have more engines in stock.
So we're doing, I would say, a gigantic effort versus the easier times before. And we've been able to manage. So we have not affected our operations for lack of parts or lack of engines and aircraft.
José Montero (CFO)
Yeah. And I would say that the moves that Pedro just alluded to, like the buying of leases and the extension or deciding to maintain the 737-700s, etc., just are a testament to the flexibility that we have in our fleet plan as well. So we continue executing on the flexibility that we have in our fleet plan.
Steve Trent (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Really appreciate that, gentlemen. And José, I'm not sure if this is your last results call, but if it is, really deeply appreciate it, and I'll miss all our interactions.
José Montero (CFO)
Oh, thank you very much, Stephen. You have brought a tear to my eye here. So thanks a lot, and thank you for the partnership.
Steve Trent (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
My thanks to you, sir.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jens Spiess from Morgan Stanley. Your question, please.
Jens Spiess (VP and Equity Analyst)
Yes. Hello. Thank you. I just want to ask on the Venezuela situation. You already mentioned about the impact for the full year. I just want to clarify, was it solely concentrated on the third quarter, or is part of the impact also going to be seen in the fourth quarter of this year? And maybe also on capital allocation, how are you thinking about it going forward? I mean, you have extremely solid balance sheet, maybe lower CapEx due to the delay. So are you maybe contemplating some buybacks, seeing where the share price is currently trading at? I don't know. Any thoughts on that would be very useful. Thank you.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Answer the first question and let José take the more difficult second question, as always. Yeah, there will be an impact on Venezuela in the fourth quarter, which would be slightly above half of what was the impact in the third quarter. And that's because we've had time to redeploy some of the aircraft and generate new bookings in other markets. So that's the difference. But it'll still be a little bit over half of the 0.9 impact we saw in the third quarter.
José Montero (CFO)
Yeah. Jens, in terms of capital allocation, the first thing that we have to say is that we have a very generous dividend policy, 40% of prior years adjusted net income, which has a very strong dividend yield right now. So that's something that is of importance and of focus for our company. We do have a buyback program, a $200 million approved buyback program, of which we've executed about a quarter of it so far. But in terms of capital allocation, I would say that over the next year and a half to two years, it's going to be the majority of the bulk, let's say, of the order that we have with Boeing in terms of aircraft. So actually, for 2025, our expectation is that CapEx in total is going to be approaching $900 million. That cash CapEx is going to be about 350.
So there is going to be some CapEx requirements during the year 2025 that we are sort of preparing for, let's say, right now.
Jens Spiess (VP and Equity Analyst)
Okay. Perfect. Very clear. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Alberto Valerio from UBS. Your question, please.
Alberto Valerio (Associate Director and LatAm Transportation Equity Research Associate)
Hi, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my question. My first one, it's about the forward guidance, preliminary guidance through 2025. If you take the current oil curve or jet fuel curve and flat yields for next year, we will be reaching something close to 23% margins. My question is, would that margin be recurring and feasible for the future, something that changed from the past? And my second one, if I may, about Argentina. You guys had a big presence in the country in the past. Are you looking to going back there after this change that we have seen lately in the economy? Thank you.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
So I'll start with the second one, Argentina. I'm not sure if I got the full question, but Argentina remains a strong market for us. And we have good coverage. We fly to about five cities, and we have a number of daily frequencies to Buenos Aires. And again, as I mentioned at the beginning, we try to deploy the capacity that makes sense for us. And we think that's what we have in Argentina. And we're very happy with our flights to Argentina in spite of any other issues that they might be going through. So that's working well, that market. In terms of the first question, I'll let José back me up. We are not issuing guidance for 2025, but I'll just say that we have shown in the past that we can consistently deliver industry-leading margins or at least leading margins in our part of the world.
We're confident that we have the structure in place to continue delivering those results. I'll let José.
José Montero (CFO)
As Pedro mentioned, we'll provide our full-year guidance in February. Yeah. The enduring aspect is that we are with our lowest or our lower unit cost base right now that we've been able to achieve over the last several years. We are simply able to deliver leading results and not be as dependent on the fluctuations in the market dynamics. We're just simply fundamentally more efficient and able to sustain very, very good margins with our low cost base.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Rogério Araújo from Bank of America. Your question, please.
Rogério Araújo (Senior Analyst)
Hello, Pedro, José. Thanks for the opportunity. I have one follow-up on yields, if I may. First one, a confirmation is the guidance imply a full year of restrictions in flights to Venezuela and any expectations of operations resuming there? And the second part of the question is regarding the year-over-year comparison of yields. So while also being constant, if you could help us to think a little bit about how the comparable basis is in first half of 2024 and second half. So we had currencies devaluing in the region, and we also had Venezuela stopping operations at the end of July. So any other item that we should take into consideration? And what is the expectation for these comparison bases of yields in 2024? Thank you.
José Montero (CFO)
Yeah. So the guidance that we have issued for full year 2024 includes the Venezuela impact for the moment or for the period that we have been affected, which is effective the end of July of this year. So that's what it's embedded in there. Remember that a portion of that capacity was not deployed immediately, so therefore it had an impact on also the flow of the passengers on this. And in terms of 2025, bringing forward the 2025 guidance, we haven't issued any revenue guidance for the year. It's simply a preliminary capacity guidance and a CASM ex fuel guidance. But the capacity guidance assumes that either Venezuela returns or that the flights or the aircraft or the capacity are deployed to other destinations within the network.
So from the standpoint of capacity and deployment, there is, let's say, it's embedded in regardless of what occurs with the aircraft. It would be embedded within that capacity. And in terms of yields for the full year, I would say that for the full year 2024, returning back to 2024, the yields in the second half of the year have also been affected by the currency fluctuations that you described, specifically in Brazil. Actually, we highlight Brazil because there was a drop in the real during the latter part of the second quarter that influenced the sales and the revenues in the third quarter. And that's also, as I discussed earlier in one of the early questions, part of the reason why the adjustment from $0.115 to $0.114 in the fourth quarter is also related to the Brazil, the continued Brazil impact.
Rogério Araújo (Senior Analyst)
Okay. Perfect. And if I may, a follow-up on Venezuela, is there any kind of upside if operations resume there in terms of yields and strength?
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Yes. Hard to know. It's an unpredictable situation. I'm confident that we will restart flights. We were flying to five cities over 40 flights per week. We will restart at some point, and maybe not this year. Hard to predict. I would guess that at some point in 2025, but saying if it's in the first quarter or the second quarter, it's hard to tell right now.
Rogério Araújo (Senior Analyst)
Okay. Fair enough. Thank you very much.
José Montero (CFO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Daniel McKenzie from Seaport Global. Your question, please.
Daniel McKenzie (Senior Analyst)
Oh, hi. Thanks, guys. A couple of questions here. Following up or circling back on the CapEx that jumps to $900 million in 2025. So for those investors that are investing a little longer term, how do we think about the dropdown in 2026 and 2027? And then just related to that, I'm just wondering if there's an appetite to add more aircraft to Wingo.
José Montero (CFO)
So in 2026, I would say it's similar. It's similar in size. And of course, it is all depending on what the delivery stream is from Boeing to us because all our essentially all the CapEx is aircraft. So I would say, but I would say preliminarily that in 2026, it will be very similar to the 2025 CapEx. And then 2027, probably to add higher. I mean, it depends ultimately on what the delivery stream is. I would say for preliminary modeling perspective, for 2026 and 2027, you could probably model it in a similar level.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
In terms of Wingo, as we get more deliveries next year, we'll give Wingo at least one aircraft, one 800 next year. It's in our fleet plan that we've published, if I'm not mistaken. And they could probably use a few more, but we're all tight of aircraft right now. But they'll get at least one next year.
Daniel McKenzie (Senior Analyst)
Yeah. Very good. Second question here. I'm wondering if you can unpack 2025 growth. So premium seat growth versus mainline seat growth. And just given the questions on FX earlier, I'm just wondering how that's shaping your thoughts about where you want to grow. So more US flying or perhaps more to smaller markets that are underserved? I'm just trying to get a sense of how the macro backdrop is shaping how you're thinking about the business and growth.
José Montero (CFO)
Yeah, Dan, a couple of things. I'll give you some color on the breakdown of the growth. First of all, the majority of the growth for next year is going to be in full year effect of service that we started during 2024. About two-thirds of the growth is going to be full year effect. And then the remainder is probably going to be, I don't know, a quarter of the remainder is going to be or 25% of the growth is going to be frequencies to markets that we already serve. And then a minor portion will be gauge. We're getting additional, well, actually, it's a full year effect of the nines that we're getting towards the latter part of this year, or I'm sorry, the year that we got earlier in the year.
So, full-year effect of the last several MAX 9s, we have 32 9s that are basically in the remainder of the aircraft are just going to be 8s. So that's basically that. There's also the fact that we're adding seats into our 800s and densifying. That's another component of the growth for next year that will also help our CASM ex in 2025. So that's gauge. So new destinations is going to be a minor portion of the growth. Just low single-digit of the growth is going to be new destinations. Now, in terms of where we put the growth, we have a lot of options and flexibility. But I would say usually you have to start from a premise that the hub needs balance. So you're always going to balance out north of Panama versus south of Panama. So you always want to balance the growth.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Of course, profitability or potential profitability has a heavy weight on our decisions.
Daniel McKenzie (Senior Analyst)
Yeah. That's a given. Well, if I could squeeze one final one in here, and that's just given the growth, the capacity constraints at Tocumen Airport, how easy is it for other airlines to get access to gates? And do you have the gates that you need to execute on the growth?
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Yeah. Tocumen is an open airport. It's not slot controlled. It's not gate controlled. And there's nothing about Tocumen that stops anyone from coming in. As we continue growing, the airport is already working on plans to expand its capacity, which will be needed in between two and three years from now. And there's a lot of low-hanging fruits that they will implement, take advantage of to increase its capacity. So there are actually no restrictions. There might be some peak moments during the day where the airport might be tight in slots and gates, but that will be improved also.
Daniel McKenzie (Senior Analyst)
Thanks for the time, you guys. Appreciate it.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. And our final question for today is a follow-up from the line of Savi Syth from Raymond James. Your question, please.
Savi Syth (Managing Director)
Hey, thanks for the follow-up. Just two quick ones. First, just on the unit cost guide for 2025, that's impressive given that you are slowing growth. Sounds like, José, you mentioned densification is helping, though I think you're already expecting that. I'm curious if you could talk about what's helping you generate that good unit cost execution.
José Montero (CFO)
Yeah. Well, first of all, yeah, we are facing like everybody else. There are inflationary pressures out there: airport fees, overflights, airspace costs, etc. Those are items that put pressure on our costs. Aside from the densification of the 800s, that will be an ongoing project throughout 2025. And just as a reminder, we're bringing the seat count on the 48 737-800s that Copa Airlines operates from an average of 160 to 166 seats. So adding an additional row in addition to that. It's growth, first of all. The growth helps in the overall growth in capacity that we're guiding to. There is still a tapering off of the sales and distribution efforts and initiatives that we're pursuing. So there's a little bit of that.
Maintenance also has some opportunities that we're pursuing for next year that should allow us to keep in mind that we achieved our 5.8 cents CASM target a year early. I think we're hopefully keeping it for next year as well.
Savi Syth (Managing Director)
Appreciate that, and then maybe just final question on, as you look to transition out, any update on the CFO search and any other kind of thoughts on the management makeup?
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Sorry, let me just simply say something. This is my last question ever. So I thought for a second that I was going to get away without that question. Actually, we were doing high fives here, but of course, that was not going to happen.
Alberto Valerio (Associate Director and LatAm Transportation Equity Research Associate)
Sorry about that.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Okay, Savi. We're prepared. Well, and I'll take, actually, I'll answer more questions, but I'll take this opportunity to recognize José on his last earnings call. He's been with Copa over 30 years. He started in our operations control center, then was planning on alliances, then for over 10 years. He's done a great job as CFO of the company with a ton of accomplishments, most during really challenging years where we were able always to keep our operating margins in double digits, with the exception of, of course, like the heart of the pandemic, 2020. And a lot of work goes into those results, a lot of initiatives, cost initiatives, financing initiatives, etc. So José has done an outstanding job, and he has now decided to retire. So he's earned the right, and we are actively searching for his replacement internally and externally.
We're not ready to announce anything yet, but we're actively working on that. And we also have contingency plans if we were not ready by January 1st. So there's nothing really new to announce right now in that regard. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, go ahead.
José Montero (CFO)
No, thank you for that. But the reality is that there's a team here. It's not because of any particular person. So there's a team ongoing that does everything. And so I think that you have to have the confidence that no one is indispensable in this particular case. And I think we have a very strong team behind in the financial areas and overall in management that will go forward. So that's actually part of the most important things that I think about all the time.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Of course. So we're not dropping the ball at all. If we did, it would not look good on José. So that's not going to happen. We're not going to drop the ball. We have a strong team. So that won't be a weak point, and then in terms of other management changes, we did bring in and we issued a press release. We created a new executive VP position. The person that's filling that position is already here, and his name is Robert Carey. He comes from Wizz Air. He was the president at Wizz Air. Before that, he was a CCO at easyJet. Before that, he was with McKinsey for many years in the aviation sector, working a lot in Latin America. So I plan to share some of my workload with Robert.
It will allow me to not have to concentrate on so many things every single minute of the day, so he'll help me there, and I'll be able to focus on many other things, so we're basically strengthening the company, strengthening the management team to be even stronger overall going forward.
Savi Syth (Managing Director)
I can appreciate those are big shoes to fill. Taking some time makes sense. I appreciate the response.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Thank you, Savi.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This does conclude the question and answer session. I'd now like to hand the program back to Pedro for any further remarks.
Pedro Heilbron (CEO)
Okay. Thank you, sir. So thank you all again. Thanks for participating in this earnings call. Again, thanks to José for his great work at Copa. This is his last call. I know he's going to miss them. We know that. So maybe he'll make a cameo in the next one. But seriously, thank you all. Really, thank you for your questions. Thank you for your participation and your support, as always. We'll keep on working really hard, like we always do, to continue delivering strong margins and industry-leading results under any circumstance. So thank you and have a great day.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. That concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.