Copa Holdings - Earnings Call - Q4 2021
February 10, 2022
Transcript
Speaker 0
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by to the Copa Holdings Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. During the presentation, all participants will be on a listen only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, this call is webcast and recorded on 02/10/2022. Now I will turn the conference over to Daniel Kehoe, Head of Investor Relations.
Sir, you may begin.
Speaker 1
Thank you, Chris, and welcome everyone to our fourth quarter and full year twenty twenty one earnings call. Joining us today are Pedro Hebron, CEO of Copa Holdings and Jose Montero, our CFO. First, Pedro will start by going over our fourth quarter and full year highlights, followed by Jose, who will discuss our financial results. Immediately after, we will open the call for questions from analysts. Copa Holdings financial reports have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards.
In today's call, we will discuss non IFRS financial measures. A reconciliation of the non IFRS to IFRS financial measures can be found in our earnings release, which has been posted on the company's website, coha.com. Our discussion today will also contain forward looking statements, not limited to historical facts that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations and or intentions regarding future events and results. These forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are based on assumptions subject to change. Many of these are discussed in our annual report filed with the SEC.
Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Pedro Heldron.
Speaker 2
Thank you, Daniel. Good morning to all, and thanks for participating in our first quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to thank all our coworkers for their commitment to the company and recognize their continuous efforts and dedication to keep Copa at the forefront of Latin American aviation. To them, as always, my utmost respect and admiration. Today, we're glad to report strong financial results for the 2021.
During the quarter, international air travel demand in Latin America continued to recover, which allowed us to end the fourth quarter with 83% of Q4 twenty nineteen ASMs. Compared to the 2021, unit revenues improved 11.2% with solid gains in both load factor and yield, while increasing capacity 16%. Adjusted unit costs, excluding fuel, came in at $0.61 for the quarter, a 2.4% reduction when compared to 2021. For the quarter, we reported an adjusted operating profit of $115,000,000 and an adjusted operating margin of 20.1%, an improvement of almost nine percentage points quarter over quarter and our best results since the beginning of the pandemic. Jose will provide further details on our fourth quarter financials.
Now turning to the main highlights for full year 2021. Excluding special items, we would have reported a net profit of $2,700,000 and an operating profit of $85,600,000 with an operating margin of 5.8%. Overall, a strong result when compared to what we expected at the beginning of the year. We finalized the sale and delivery of our Embraer 190 and now operate an all Boeing seven thirty seven fleet. We restarted seven thirty seven MAX nine operations and received seven additional aircraft during the year to end twenty twenty one with a total of 14 MAX The additional aircraft also equipped with our Dreams business class cabin would allow us to provide world class comfort to our business class passengers in more markets.
In December, we launched our first new destination since the beginning of the pandemic by starting service to Armenia and Cucuta in Colombia and Atlanta in The U. S. With these additions, we ended the year providing service to 68 destinations in North, Central, South America and The Caribbean, strengthening our position as the most complete and convenient hub in Latin America. And Copa Airlines was recently recognized by Serum for the eighth consecutive year as the most on time airline in Latin America during 2021. In fact, Copa's on time performance was again the highest of any airline in all of The Americas.
I'd like to take this opportunity to recognize our more than 6,000 Copa and Wingo employees for everything they do day in and day out to deliver a world class travel experience to our passengers. Turning now to Wingo. It continued its regional expansion during the year, adding four new routes from Panama City to San Jose, Costa Rica from Bogota to Lima from Cali to Cancun and from Medellin to Punta Cana. To summarize, in Q4 twenty twenty one, we delivered our strongest quarterly financial results since the beginning of the pandemic. We were able to reach 83% of our pre pandemic capacity in the fourth quarter.
Our team continued to deliver world leading operational results with Copa being recognized as the most on time airline in The Americas. We delivered lower unit costs compared to pre pandemic levels on less capacity. And we're strategically focused on restarting destinations and adding new markets, strengthening our position as the most complete and convenient hub in Latin America. Overall, the recovery in demand and rebuilding of our network in 2021 was quite encouraging. Now as I'm sure you're aware, 2022 is off to a much more challenging start.
The Omicron variant is impacting both international travel demand in the region and the number of crews we have available to fly. Due to a reduced number of available pilots and flight attendants, we canceled approximately 1,000 flights during the month of January and February, which is 4% of our Q1 schedule. Fortunately, we do not expect any crew availability cancellations for March. We're seeing, however, an industry slowdown in bookings for Q1 travel that will cause our load factors and unit revenues to come in lower than the 2021. Jose will share our Q1 guidance during his presentation.
I'd like to reiterate that we have a proven and strong business model, which is based on operating the best and most convenient network for intra Latin America travel from our hub of The Americas, leveraging Panama's advantageous geographic position with low unit cost, best on time performance and strongest balance sheet. And we expect that going forward, our hope of The Americas will be an even more valuable source of strategic advantage. Now I'll turn it over to Jose, who will go over our financial results in more detail.
Speaker 3
Thank you, Pedro. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for being with us today. I'd like to join Pedro in acknowledging our great team for all their efforts and their great spirit during these many months of the pandemic. I will start by going over our fourth quarter results.
Capacity came in at 5,100,000,000 available seat miles, which amounts to 83% of the capacity that we operated during the 2019. Load factor came in at an average of 83.5% for the quarter, a 4.2 percentage point increase compared to Q3 while operating 16% more ASMs. We reported a net profit of $114,400,000 or $2.69 per share. Excluding special items, we would have reported a net profit of $84,100,000 or $1.98 per share. Special items for the quarter are mainly comprised of an unrealized mark to market loss of $8,900,000 related to the company's convertible notes issued in 2020 and a reversal of $39,200,000 related to the company's provision for the return of leased aircraft.
We reported a quarterly operating profit of $155,000,000 Excluding the reversal of $39,200,000 we would have reported an adjusted operating profit of $115,800,000 for the quarter. Our reported operating margin was 27%. Excluding these special items, we will have reported an operating margin of 20.1%. Unit costs, excluding fuel, were better than in the third quarter, coming in at $0.61 per ASM, driven by our continued focus on reducing expenses as well as a quarter over quarter capacity growth of 16%. Our yields for the quarter came in at $0.01 $27 an increase of 5.8% compared to the third quarter while operating more ASMs.
I'd like to highlight that our cargo revenues for the quarter also came in higher quarter over quarter and over 60% above our cargo revenues for Q4 twenty nineteen, driven by an improved cargo demand environment in the region. Turning to cash. During the fourth quarter, we had a cash buildup of approximately $84,000,000 driven mainly by increased sales during the period as well as by our continued focus in our costs. As a reminder, for our cash buildup measure, we exclude all extraordinary proceeds from asset sales, but include CapEx, the payment of debt principal and interest as well as the payment of our leases. Now I'd like to go over our full year 2021 financial highlights.
Our reported net income came in at $39,900,000 Excluding special items, we would have reported an adjusted net income of $2,700,000 or an adjusted earnings per share of $06 Special items for the year include a $22,800,000 unrealized mark to market loss related to the company's convertible notes, passenger revenue adjustment of $20,800,000 corresponding to unredeemed coupons from 2019 and 2020 sales and the reversal of $39,200,000 in the company's provision for the return on leased aircraft. Reported operating profits came in at $145,700,000 Excluding the special items, we would have reported an operating profit of $85,600,000 and a 5.8% operating margin. Finally, for the full year, we had a cash buildup of $133,000,000 I'm going to spend some time now discussing our balance sheet and liquidity. So at the 2021, we had assets of close to $4,200,000,000 and our cash short and long term investments ended at $1,200,000,000 We also ended the quarter with an aggregate amount of $295,000,000 in unutilized committed credit facilities, which brought our total liquidity to more than $1,500,000,000 In terms of debt, we ended the quarter with $1,600,000,000 in debt and lease liabilities, similar levels to the ones reported for the end of the third quarter.
And our adjusted net debt to EBITDA ratio came in at 1.05x. Turning now to our fleet. During the fourth quarter, we received one seven thirty seven MAX nine and decided to keep three seven thirty seven 700s, previously considered as assets held for sale. During the quarter, we also completed the conversion of one of our seven thirty seven-800s into a freighter. We ended the year with 91 aircraft, sixty eight seven thirty seven-800s, fourteen seven thirty seven MAX 9s, and nine seven thirty seven-700s.
These figures include three seven three seven seven hundreds, which are currently in temporary storage, and seven three seven eight hundred freighter. In q one of this year, we have received one seven three seven MAX nine and expect to receive one additional MAX nine aircraft to end the quarter with 16 MAX nines and a total fleet of 93 aircraft. As to our outlook, based on the current state of the demand environment, air travel restrictions and the impact of the Omicron variant, we can provide the following guidance for the 2022. We expect capacity to be approximately 88% of Q1 twenty nineteen levels or about 5,700,000,000 ASMs, and we expect our operating margin to be in the range of three percent to 6%. We're basing our Q1 twenty twenty two outlook on the following assumptions: Revenues of approximately 82% of Q1 twenty nineteen levels or approximately $550,000,000 CASM ex fuel of approximately $06 and an all in fuel price of $2.79 per gallon, an increase of approximately 15% compared to the average fuel price in the 2021.
Given the recent volatility in the environment, we believe it is premature to give complete full year guidance. However, preliminarily, we expect our full year 2022 capacity to be approximately 93% of 2019 ASMs and our CASM ex fuel to be in the range of $0.59 Thank you. And with that, we'll open the call for questions.
Speaker 0
Thank you. Our first question comes from Savi Syth of Raymond James. Your line is open.
Speaker 4
Hey, good morning everyone. Just on 1Q outlook, given Easter is not until mid April and kind of January, I believe, is the seasonally strongest month in 1Q. Is it fair to say that you have fairly good visibility into the quarter? Or are there some of those assumptions incorrect? Or perhaps the booking behavior is so different today that maybe kind of March kind of matters a lot more to the quarter than it has historically?
Speaker 2
Hi, Savi. Pedro here. So so, yes. I mean, our booking patterns are very different to what we were used to in normal times pre pandemic. But what we've seen so far, but so far means the last two weeks, is bookings coming back to, quote unquote, a normal level or a normal meaning what we were seeing pre Omicron.
So but, again, that's just a few weeks. And what we've learned from this pandemic is that things change from one day to the other.
Speaker 3
Yeah. And we did see an impact in Omicron, Savvy, during the month of January and early sort of bookings early February. So there is an impact there, but that's included within the guidance that we just issued.
Speaker 4
Makes sense. And then if I might ask, on the MAX fleet, just one, when do you start to when do you expect to start getting MAX 10s into your fleet? And two, just wanted to clarify, I think originally, I think the first 13 MAX 9s were supposed to be with 166 and and then beyond with 174. Are you getting the 174 seat configuration now so you get a little bit more gauge benefit here?
Speaker 2
Yes. You're correct. The last two MAX 9s, if I'm not mistaken, have come with the with the one seventy four configuration, and so will the rest of the MAX 9s we still have to receive. And we will decide in the future. We haven't made that decision yet.
If the ones that are under a 166 configuration will also change to 174, which it takes very little effort. But that decision has not been made yet. In terms
Speaker 5
of the 10 Yes, I
Speaker 3
think that the MAX 10s are yet yet in the pipeline for this year and next. So it's still some time left until we to receive them. And again, I want to highlight also, Savi, that we have a lot of flexibility in terms of the subtypes that we have within the order. So we can switch them from 10s into other other subtypes as well. So it's there's still quite a bit of flexibility related there, and it will happen yet removed from 2022 by a couple of years.
Speaker 4
Okay. Thanks, Dan. Thank you.
Speaker 0
Thank you. Our next question comes from of Citi. Your line is open.
Speaker 6
Good morning gentlemen and many thanks for taking my question. Kind of two very quick ones for you. The first, am I correct in thinking that you guys are probably not under a significant pressure in terms of your pilot pipeline, just thinking about the more significant dislocation among the Latin airlines versus The US, you know, and considering maybe there's some pilots out there looking for work. Just sort of wanted a high level understanding how you guys are seeing your pilot supply.
Speaker 2
Right. So short term, we are okay. We have still pilots that took voluntary leave during the pandemic that we can bring back. We activated every pilot that was on furlough, but we still have the voluntary leave we can bring back. We also have an interesting pipeline from our own flight academy.
And we're going to have, at the end of the year, about 100 pilots there that we can and that we will incorporate into the airline. So we're thinking it's more medium term, and we think that we're taking the necessary steps to be fine also medium term and beyond.
Speaker 6
Okay. Great color, Pedro. I definitely appreciate that. And just one other quick one for me. I was intrigued by what you guys mentioned about converting one of your seven thirty seven-8s into a freighter.
Is this something that you might consider doing with other seven thirty seven 8s? Or do you kind of see it as a one off? That
Speaker 3
should kind
Speaker 6
of be a near the medium term thing
Speaker 5
as the pandemic winds down?
Speaker 2
Right. So a few things there. First is that we made that decision when we had our aircraft in the desert. We're not flying and cargo was booming worldwide and in the region. And in hindsight, it was the right decision.
And we expect that aircraft to produce on a single airplane basis better profits than our last passenger or less profitable passenger aircraft. So it was a good decision, and we have an option for a second conversion in the coming years. And also these are the our oldest non Boeing Sky Interior 800. The other thing I would add is that we charter aircraft. We already charter.
We've been chartering for a while freighter aircraft that fly regionally. So so this many
Speaker 7
of
Speaker 2
the hours are gonna be replacements. This is our own freighter, a much more efficient 800 freighter. It's gonna replace a less efficient seven two seven freighter we we charter for regional flying, and then we'll add hours to that. So so we're really happy with the decision. It's not turning us into a big time freighter carrier.
It's more of a niche opportunity, but I think it complements well the rest of our business.
Speaker 6
Okay. Definitely appreciate that, Pedro. Thank you. I'll let someone else ask their question.
Speaker 2
Thank you, Steven.
Speaker 0
Thank you. And next we have Alejandro Damocoa of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Speaker 7
Thank you. Hi, Pedro, Jose, Daniel. Thank you for the call. A quick question on the sub-six plan. So back in the Investor Day in 2019, you guided KSM XPO below $06 for 2021 onwards.
It seems that you are getting close to a target. And I'm wondering how would the number the current number would look like if COVID-nineteen wouldn't existed?
Speaker 3
I missed the last part of your question, Alejandro. So you asked when how does the number look like in?
Speaker 7
Yeah. So so the KSM, the current KSM XTO, how how how do you think that would look like without COVID effect?
Speaker 3
Without the COVID effects. Okay. Okay. So, look, in in I think that the principal component of our of our CASM reduction that we've seen so far that is is is related to the fleet movements that we've made. We've moved away from the E-one 190 fleet, which was part of our initial assessment in terms of how to move into a sub-six CASM.
I would say that, again, we are ahead of the plan in the sense that what we published back in 2019 assumed a larger COPPA. So a lot of the benefits that we're going to get in terms of size were size of the company, we're going to flow down into a CASM figure. We are achieving that in a smaller COPPA. So we're achieving the subsea CASM, we're saying, at ninety three percent of pre COVID capacity. So it is actually ahead of that.
And I would say that some of the items that we've had in terms of overhead that we've reduced probably are on the margin. I don't think it's necessarily that material in terms of how where the cash will be. Maybe the cash will be at just above six. But that certainly has made a difference, the fact that we have actually accelerated some of the fleet moves that we made, been very effective in renegotiating a lot of contracts and also worked a lot in terms of overhead. So that's kind of what's gotten us faster into the sub-six target that we had.
Speaker 7
Right. Got it. Thank you. And then on the unitary revenue, meaning the guidance for the first quarter twenty twenty two shows some implicit reduction relative to the fourth quarter twenty twenty one. So would you say that it's fully explained by Omicron?
And how can we think about yields for the remaining year?
Speaker 3
Yes. I'll start by talking about Q1. And indeed, it is related to Omicron in terms of the revenue figures. It is and I would say that it is solely related to Omicron. There's two components to Omicron.
One is cancellations that we had, which reduced our revenue figures. It might not necessarily affect as much on a P and L basis because it's resulting in cancellations. And then the other portion of it is just a pure sort of softening during the month of January and February related to how we're seeing demand. So that's on the top line. But I think that when you match this to profitability for Q1 and kind of what our guidance is for Q1, the range that we have for an operating margin, there is also the impact of fuel in there.
We shut fuel that is 15% higher on a cost basis versus what we had in Q4. So that's another component of it. I would say, I mean, kind of deconstructing a little bit sort of the operating margin between Q4 and Q1 that about two thirds of the reduction in margin that we're seeing quarter over quarter is related to the Omicron sort of RASM impact about a third related to fuel. As to the rest of the year, we I think it's too early to make an assessment for the rest of the year. I mean, we, I think, are confident in terms of what we're seeing in terms of capacity going forward, but I think there's still a lot of water to flow under the bridge in terms of going to put an assessment as to where their revenues are going be for the rest of the year.
Speaker 7
Okay. Thank you, Jose.
Speaker 0
You. Andy of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Speaker 1
Hello. Good morning.
Speaker 8
Good morning. Morning.
Speaker 9
How much would it cost to add Wi Fi onto your planes? And what sort of cost benefit analysis have you done there, particularly as you consider the Wi FLAT seats that you're putting on onboard? Thanks.
Speaker 2
Okay. So so you don't have a figure for WiFi right now on my mind, so I cannot really share that. It is something that we always look at. I mean, it's been a trend in certain parts of the industry or of the world, so we don't ignore it, but we have not yet seen a compelling case for it. But again, we stay very much on top of it.
So when time comes, we'll be ready to make the right decision, hopefully. Yes. Okay.
Speaker 9
And on the P and L, you're I can understand why the passenger servicing costs are half of what they were pre COVID with no business travelers and the like. But why a simpler onboard product, as you mentioned, but why are your distribution costs pretty much all the way back to pre COVID levels? I feel like those two things should sort of trend together, particularly with the lack of business travel and more direct bookings. Is there an opportunity to do better there? And sort of why those two costs have diverged?
I'd be curious about that.
Speaker 3
Yes. There's a couple of items there. First of all, yes, our onboard costs have been lower related to just moves that we've made in terms of our onboard product, not necessarily driven by business travel, more than just simply sort of COVID type decisions that we've made in terms of onboard product. By the way, we always listen to what our customers say as well. So it's something that we pay attention to in terms of what our customers' feedback is.
But and in terms of sales and distribution, actually, it is first of all, that line moves with sales. And Q4, you might have seen a spike in terms of sales going forward. So it is I think that's the explanation for the distribution line.
Speaker 9
All right. Well, you very much.
Speaker 2
Thanks.
Speaker 0
Thank you. Up next we have Helene Becker of Cowen. Your line is open.
Speaker 10
Thanks very much, operator. Hi, guys. Thanks for the time. Just a couple of questions. One, how are you thinking about reinstating the dividend?
Speaker 3
Well, I would say, Elaine, that for the time being, it is still not something that I think it's too early to say how or when that's going to be restated.
Speaker 2
But we have a policy, which is 40% of the previous year's profit adjusted profit. So that's the policy. And 40% of twenty twenty one's adjusted Yes. It would make for like a fraction of a cent.
We're not going to do that. But I'm pretty confident that if we have a normal year, this in 2022 as we are expecting to have, that that policy would automatically come back.
Speaker 10
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks, Pedro. And then my other question is with respect to aircraft deliveries this year. So I guess I got a little confused.
You said you took one in one MAX nine in January, and you have one more coming in the first quarter. And then how many are coming in the second through fourth quarters?
Speaker 3
Yeah. So in total, there'll be eight max deliveries in the year, including the one that we took on delivery of in January. So there's seven more.
Speaker 10
Okay. And are those gonna be leased or or owned and or financed? Okay. Or
Speaker 3
So yeah. Yeah. Okay. So, look, the first four well, including the December airplane. So the the December airplane plus the first three deliveries of this year, they already have they are going be owned and they're going to be financed and that's that.
The remaining aircraft of 2022, in that starting that process now. We're open for alternatives. It could be sale leasebacks or it could be financing. That's yet to be determined. Those aircraft are coming in later in the year.
That process is just going.
Speaker 10
Okay. That's really helpful. And then if I could just squeeze one more in. The reversal is in the maintenance line. Right?
Speaker 3
Yes. That's the reason why you see the maintenance line with the credit balancer this this quarter.
Speaker 10
Right. That's what I was thinking, but I just wanted to be I just wanted to be sure. Thank you. Thanks. Alright.
Thanks, you guys. Have a nice rest of your day. Yeah.
Speaker 3
We actually took a very, good guy out of our underlying results to true them up. Yeah.
Speaker 10
Yeah. Okay. All right. I just wanted to make sure I got that right. Thank you.
Speaker 0
Thank you. And next we have Pablo Montiva of Barclays. Your line is open.
Speaker 1
Hi. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I have a fairly simple question here. Can you please share with us some details on which countries are showing the strongest demand dynamics and which ones are still working in progress? Thank you.
Speaker 2
You know, I yeah. But I would say that it's it's it's balanced. It it it's it's hard to say that one one country in particular. I mean, could be a few exceptions here and there, and it usually has to do more than anything with restrictions. There are a few countries that still have travel restrictions, even though in most cases, any significant restriction has been lifted.
But I would not say that there's a one significant destination or country that we should highlight.
Speaker 3
Yes. It's very well spread out. Behavior of the demand trends seem to be uniform in general.
Speaker 2
And the bigger markets in our region, including The U. S, are open and are behaving in similar ways. The U. S, Brazil, other countries in South America, Colombia. All open and Mexico, the same.
It's always been open. And so we're seeing traffic flowing among those countries in I mean, not in the same levels as before, and there's a shift more leisure, less business, but I could not say that one is really much different to the other.
Speaker 1
Okay. Thank you very much.
Speaker 7
Thank
Speaker 0
you. Next we have Mike Linenberg of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Speaker 11
Oh hey, good morning everyone. Hey just before I go into questions Pedro, you know when you mentioned a seven twenty seven for your freighter operation I got all misty eyed here. I can't think of the last time I've heard an airline executive actually mention a seven twenty seven on a call. Hopefully, when you switch the business to the 800, they're not putting that thing out to the pasture, but maybe it's its last flight.
Speaker 2
when I mentioned those three numbers was talking about a freighter and not a passenger.
Speaker 11
That's right. You know, unless it had parachutes. Anyway, Pedro, I want to go back to kind of, you know, in previous periods, you know, over the years since you guys have been a public company, you know, one of the things that I always thought, you know, that you sort of stood out versus other carriers, you know, whether around the region or the world was your ability to recapture higher fuel prices in your fare structure. And historically you've done a pretty good job and I can even recall you saying, you know, look, you know, we were able to get 100%. And I know there's a lag And maybe that lag is, you know, three months, five months.
And I don't know if it's because you fly 99% of your service is international, right? So there are fuel surcharges. You do get that benefit. And you also fly to a lot of countries that, you know, where their economies actually tend to do well when commodity prices are rising. And that's what we're seeing around the world right now.
You know, just look at like the Brazilian stock market. It's up pretty meaningfully. So I don't know, you know, do you feel like that your business and the competition and the backdrop that you can say that you'll be able to recapture 100%? And I'm just curious in the March underlying your 3% to 6% operating margin guide, what's your assumption? Are you assuming maybe you recapture 50% of the run up in fuel, 75%?
Is there some percentage that you can give us? I realize it's kind of a long and sort of comprehensive type question, but there's it obviously matters a lot to your P and L in the March and where you think you could be for the year.
Speaker 2
Right. So staying in the 07/27 Alzheimer's category, the one hundred percent recapture comment was actually in twenty o seven or twenty o eight. Okay. If I'm not mistaken, which was the last time actually that that fuel went through the roof. Yeah.
Maybe not the last time, but when when when it got kind of got got the worst. And the reason and I'll let Jose kind of round up what I'm saying. The reason we're not expecting or banking on recapturing the increase in fuel price. It's just all the uncertainty related to the virus and how we're bringing back capacity and how competition is less predictable. The traffic flows, it's more leisure, less business.
So also harder to change prices in some markets from one day to the other. So it's just the whole business environment is very different right now. And I know the waters will settle and things will normalize as the year progresses, but we don't want to make any bets right now or any promises. Our PRM team, as always, will do its best to recapture as much as we can, hopefully all. But it will take longer, I think, than before.
I don't know if you want to
Speaker 6
add something.
Speaker 3
No, I would just add that the other component there is currencies in the region and the currency environment in Latin America is still not as predictable maybe as it would have been
Speaker 10
in
Speaker 3
in other times. So that's that's another component of this, right, in terms of purchasing power. And and I have to second what Pedro mentioned in terms of our pricing and revenue management practice, which is world class, and they're they're excellent at at what they do when they capture as much as they can from Mhmm. From every ASM that we sell. So it's very important.
And then the other thing, however, I think that the other aspect that has changed or that we are really focusing on is our own controllable costs. And so our CASM X today is much lower than where it was back in 02/07, and that's another big component of our ultimate profitability that we're striving for.
Speaker 11
Great. And then just one quick follow-up. Since
Speaker 2
you sort
Speaker 11
of said, you know, that obviously given the current backdrop, you know, obviously a lot more discretionary than say corporate. But is there anything you're seeing on the corporate side over the last quarter, two or three where maybe you're starting to see a little bit of a pickup or you're the surveys that you maybe do or whether they're anecdotal or formal surveys with your corporate customers, are you starting to see some improvement there? Or is it just still unchanged? Any color on that front, just given the leverage that you guys have to that side of the business? Thank you.
Speaker 2
Yes. I'll let Jose look for more specific information. But we haven't seen much change from the last few quarters. We're still doing something like 40% leisure, 40% VFR and 20% business. It used to be a third each before the pandemic.
But also, you know, there are other favorable trends, which is we have better load factors in business class for whatever reason and Mhmm. Including probably the pandemic being a reason that that we're selling better business class than before. So so that's a that's a positive trend.
Speaker 3
Yeah. No. No. That's that's it. It's basically, you know, business travel was about half of where it was back before the pandemic.
Speaker 11
Yes. No, that's helpful. So it sounds like maybe you're getting some premium leisure or premium VFR that's sitting up front, which is what we're hearing and seeing in The U. S. It sounds like there's a little bit of that.
Speaker 7
A little bit of that happening here.
Speaker 11
Very good. Well great, great quarter. Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions.
Speaker 2
Thank you, Mike. Thank you, Mike.
Speaker 0
Thank you. Next we have Rogerio Araujo of UBS. Your line is open.
Speaker 5
Yes. Hi, gentlemen. Congratulations on the strong quarter. So first, I'd like to address your expectations for yields when the market normalize. What I mean is when you know, all the grounded aircraft are back to fly and international demand normalize, do you expect yields to be above 92% level and by how much?
I know it's a very difficult question, especially regarding timing, But, I think only some kind of, you know, best guess here would be very appreciated.
Speaker 6
And I I will give
Speaker 5
my second question, ladies. Thank you.
Speaker 3
Yeah. Jose, I I would you know, first of all, we are it's too early to determine where things ultimately are going to end up. We're at least in 2022, we're just keeping it in terms of our revenue guidance for the first quarter. But I would say that the way that we're preparing for any sort of yield environment that might occur with increased competition or other type of situations with our costs. We have, again, our sub-six CASM ex is stronger than where we were pre pandemic, and that's the way that we'll compete.
And by the way, we also believe, of course, that the network and the hub in Panama is the best strategy for serving the passengers in our region as well.
Speaker 5
Okay. Sounds good. And what about capacity deployment in the region? Because we saw copper's market share in the major countries, you know, doubling since pre COVID. Basically, do you expect a lot of capacity to be still deployed in the coming quarters?
And when should this movement end? When should we be more confident that yields are going to likely increase with demand normalizing? So any color on capacity deployment and how much aircraft is still grounded from competitors would be great. Thank you.
Speaker 2
Right. So I would say that capacity market share has been a little bit all over the place in Latin America. Some airlines have deployed capacity faster than others. I mean, there are some that are above pre pandemic capacity and others are still behind. We are like in the middle.
We're very close. And by the second half of this year, we will be at a pre pandemic capacity. So again, some are above some of The U. S. Carriers, even some carriers in our region are above.
And some of the main airlines that went through the Chapter 11 process are a little bit behind. And all of that alters the market share numbers too. So again, I think we stayed like in the middle. And we're following our course. We are focusing on our network, on what makes sense to us, on bringing back the capacity and we know we can fly profitably.
And we expect, as mentioned, to be sometime in the second half of the year to be above 2019.
Speaker 5
Thank you so much, your time.
Speaker 2
Have a great one.
Speaker 3
Thank you.
Speaker 0
Thank you. Last question comes from Dan McKenzie of Seaport Global. Your line is open.
Speaker 8
Hey thanks. Good morning guys. You know I had a few questions here. Jose I am seeing a bigger expansion by Wingo in the current quarter. And my question is to what extent Wingo is going to aid or help the overall system cost story going forward?
So if we were to dissect or separate out the two cost stories, is it that Wingo's CASM Ex is sub five just given the higher utilization model? And then that helps to drive the sub six CASM Ex story at the system level? Or is the cost story really being driven as much on the COPA side just given the cost restructuring you've done there?
Speaker 2
It's both. It's both. And I would say that we're both we don't as you know, we don't disclose individually the two units. But both airlines or both units are doing better cost wise. And no one is sub five, I should say, at least not yet.
But that could change in the future. Target.
Speaker 0
Is a
Speaker 2
Wingwood is operating more ASMs than before the pandemic. We're a little bit less. They are a little bit more. So they're a higher percentage of the total. They're contributing a little bit more than to the overall Copa Holdings number.
But again, the improvement comes from both units.
Speaker 3
Yes. Both airlines are doing much better in terms of cost than pre pandemic.
Speaker 8
Yes. Very good. And the second question I have really is just kind of putting a finer point on some of the prior questions. And that is, I wonder if you can just provide some perspective on the percent of overall flying, you know, say ballpark to the top five countries. And the reason I'm asking is at least when I dug into the schedules, it looks like flying in the first quarter is a bit more concentrated than it normally would be.
So it looks like you're clearly making some deliberate network decisions here just to leverage traffic in the near term.
Speaker 3
I would say that we're taking opportunities as they come, but it's been bouncing out more than where we were maybe Q2 of last year where there was a clear traffic going to The U. S. For vaccine tourism and the like. Now it is there's quite a bit in terms of leisure, but it is, think, more balanced than where we were pre last year. And then there are some countries that have opened up.
That's your item here. Some countries in South America were very closed during the third quarter second and third quarter of last year. And as they've opened, we've added some capacity into those markets as well.
Speaker 8
Okay. And I had to squeeze one last one here. I always am asking questions on pent up demand to all the airlines. And I'm just wondering if you can speak to the COPA website searches that you're seeing for travel in March and this summer. I guess that would be winter in South America actually compared to 2019.
So looking at searches, not bookings, I'm just wondering if you can kind of give us some perspective of what the appetite for travel is as we look ahead.
Speaker 2
Well, didn't bring that information. Probably the one piece of information we missed. I think that's your specialty. Coming up with that one question that we are not prepared to answer. But so I'm gonna have to give you a very, very general but we'll we'll we'll get back to you.
I'm gonna have to give you a very general answer here. And and I think what's encouraging is that we are seeing appetite for travel throughout the region, especially for leisure travel, not only to Copa markets, but to Europe, to everywhere, skiing season in The U. S, some are Copa markets, some are not to Caribbean destination. So in general, we do not see that people are hesitant about about traveling abroad. And there's still some pent up demand, or or if it's no longer pent up, it's the urge to get out and and and do things and go somewhere.
So in in that sense, we are very, very optimistic on on the rest of the year even though, you know, corporate demand is really hard to predict right now for many reasons. But what we see in general is people are willing and wanna travel.
Speaker 3
And and if something like you had a plan in January couldn't occur because of Omicron, We're seeing people say, okay. I'm gonna go in on Easter weekend and, you know, that that sort of thing. So it's not like people are somehow canceling. It's just simply they're they're postponing, their travel.
Speaker 2
And and that's a good point also because the booking curve has shortened. So for all the reasons we know with the virus and travel restrictions and the like, there's more people making their travel plans a lot closer to the traveling date.
Speaker 8
Very good. Thanks so much you guys. Great quarter and look forward to hearing you again in another three months here.
Speaker 3
Sounds good. Thank you, Dan. Thank you.
Speaker 0
Thank you. That ends our Q and A session. I will now hand the call back over to Pedro Heilbron for closing remarks.
Speaker 2
Thank you. Thank you, operator. So thank you all. This concludes our Q4 and twenty twenty one earnings call. Thank you for being with us and thanks for your continued support.
Have a great day and we'll see you in the next one. Thank you again.
Speaker 0
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. That concludes the presentation. You may disconnect and have a wonderful day.