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CP

CENTRAL PACIFIC FINANCIAL CORP (CPF)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 delivered steady core improvement: NIM expanded 5 bps QoQ to 3.49% and NII rose 2.5% QoQ; EPS was $0.69 GAAP ($0.73 adj.), with loans and deposits growing $77.4M and $32.7M, respectively .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, adjusted EPS was a slight miss by ~$0.01 ($0.73 vs $0.74), and revenue missed ($70.65M vs $74.37M), noting S&P’s revenue taxonomy differs from the company’s “total revenue” of $74.81M* .
  • Expenses stepped up on incentive accruals and a one-time ops-center consolidation; efficiency ratio rose to 62.84% (60.81% ex-one-time) from 60.36% last quarter .
  • Capital actions are a near-term catalyst: quarterly dividend raised to $0.28 and notice to redeem $55M sub debt at par on Nov 1, expected to support Q4 NIM; management guided Q4 NII to $62–$63M and NIM +5–10 bps QoQ .

*Estimates from S&P Global Market Intelligence; see “Estimates Context.”

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Margin and NII acceleration: NIM +5 bps QoQ to 3.49% and NII +2.5% QoQ; YoY NIM +42 bps and NII +13.8% on better loan and securities yields .
    • Balance sheet growth returned: Loans +$77.4M QoQ to $5.37B; deposits +$32.7M QoQ to $6.58B with core deposits +$24.6M QoQ .
    • Capital returns and optimization: Dividend raised to $0.28; 78k shares repurchased; sub-debt redemption notice ($55M) to reduce funding cost; CEO: “another strong quarter… margin expansion, solid earnings, and growth” .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Expenses elevated: Other operating expense rose $3.1M QoQ to $47.0M on incentive accruals (+$2.1M) and a $1.5M one-time consolidation cost; efficiency ratio worsened to 62.84% (60.81% ex-one-time) vs 60.36% in Q2 .
    • Consensus optics: S&P Global shows revenue miss and ~1c EPS shortfall (adj. basis), despite company “total revenue” up QoQ* .
    • Mixed credit optics, though within plan: criticized loans at 1.77% of loans (vs 1.80% in Q2) and NPAs 0.19% of assets; net charge-offs fell to 0.20% (annualized) from 0.35% in Q2 .

*Estimates from S&P Global Market Intelligence; see “Estimates Context.”

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Profitability

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Interest Income ($M)53.851 59.796 61.301
Other Operating Income ($M)12.734 13.013 13.507
Total Revenue ($M)66.585 72.809 74.808
Diluted EPS ($)0.49 0.67 0.69
NIM (%)3.07 3.44 3.49
Efficiency Ratio (%)70.12 60.36 62.84
ROA (%)0.72 1.00 1.01
ROE (%)10.02 13.04 12.89

Key Balance Sheet & Credit KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Loans (period end, $M)5,342.609 5,289.809 5,367.202
Deposits (period end, $M)6,583.013 6,544.989 6,577.684
Avg Loan Yield (%)4.89 4.96 5.01
Avg Deposit Cost (%)1.32 1.02 1.02
Net Charge-offs (ann.) %0.27 0.35 0.20
NPAs / Assets (%)0.16 0.20 0.19
ACL / Loans (%)1.15 1.13 1.13

Estimate vs Actual (S&P Global definitions)

MetricEstimateActual
EPS (Primary)0.74*0.73*
Revenue ($M)74.37*70.65*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global. Note: S&P’s “Revenue” methodology differs from CPF’s “total revenue” (NII + noninterest income = $74.81M) in company materials .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Interest IncomeQ4 2025$62–$63M (Q4) New
NIM (QoQ delta)Q4 2025Q2 guide +4–7 bps for Q2 (from Q1 call) +5–10 bps in Q4 Raised vs earlier cadence
Other Operating IncomeQ4 2025$12–$13M (normalized) New
Other Operating ExpenseQ4 2025$43.5–$44.5M per qtr (near-term, Q2) $45–$46M (incl. similar incentives) Higher
Deposits GrowthFY 2025Low single-digit (Q2) Flattish for FY25; optimism for 2026 Lowered
Loans GrowthFY 2025Low single-digit (Q2) Low single-digit maintained Maintained
DividendOngoing$0.27 $0.28 declared for Q4 payout Raised
Subordinated DebtQ4 2025Redeem $55M notes at par on Nov 1 New
Capital TargetsOngoingCET1 11–12%; TCE 7.5–8.5% Disclosed
Effective Tax RateOngoing22–24% range (Q2) Q3 ETR 21.4% (drivers: donation, tax-exempt income) Lower in Q3; range unchanged implied

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
NIM/ALMQ1 NIM +14 bps QoQ to 3.31%; guide +4–7 bps next quarter . Q2 NIM 3.44% on higher loan yields and lower deposit costs .NIM 3.49%; guide +5–10 bps in Q4; Q4 NII $62–$63M .Improving; Q4 uplift aided by sub-debt redemption.
Deposit costs/mixQ1 avg deposit cost 1.08% ; Q2 1.02% .Q3 avg deposit cost 1.02%; spot rate 1.00% at 9/30 .Stable-to-down; beta leverage into cuts.
Loan growth/pipelineQ2: muted 1H; target low single-digit FY growth .Q3: Loans +$77M; low single-digit FY growth maintained; Hawaii runoff expected to moderate with lower rates .Reaccelerating 2H; more balanced Hawaii/Mainland ahead.
Mainland diversification/SNICQ2 reminded of mainland book and strategy .SNIC exposure ~$526M; breakdown provided; balances trending down in corporate lending .Disciplined participation; exposure managed lower.
Expenses/efficiency & techQ2 efficiency 60.36%; near-term opex guide $43.5–$44.5M; ongoing tech/data center investments .Q3 opex +$3.1M on incentives + one-time; Q4 opex guide $45–$46M; targeting high-50s efficiency over time .Near-term elevated; structural saves (~$1M/yr) to accrue.
Capital returnQ2: buybacks resumed; $0.27 dividend .Q3: dividend to $0.28; 78k shares repurchased; sub-debt redemption announced; CET1/TCE targets disclosed .More proactive within prudent capital bands.
Macro (Hawaii, tariffs)Q1/Q2: resilient Hawaii; monitoring tariffs impact .CEO: softness in tourism but construction/military support; market resilient .Resilience narrative intact; monitoring policy risk.
Japan strategyAlliances in Japan highlighted historically .New Kyoto Shinkin partnership to deepen Hawaii–Japan ties .Incremental international relationship bank growth.
Credit qualityQ2 NCOs 0.35% on one C&I; NPAs 0.20% .Q3 NCOs 0.20%; NPAs 0.19%; special mention $34.3M, classified $62.1M, stable .Stable/in-range; consumer losses trending down.

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Central Pacific delivered another strong quarter, highlighted by continued margin expansion, solid earnings, and growth in both loans and deposits.”
  • CFO: “For the fourth quarter, we are guiding to $62 to $63 million in net interest income and a net interest margin increase of 5 to 10 basis points.”
  • CFO on expenses: “We recorded a net $1.5 million one-time expense related to the consolidation of our operations center… We expect total annual savings of approximately $1 million.”
  • COO on deposits: “The fourth quarter is going to be a little more challenging… striving to probably keep deposit growth relatively flat year over year… optimistic on 2026.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Growth mix and Hawaii runoff: Management expects Hawaii residential/home equity runoff to moderate with rate declines; healthy Hawaii pipeline with closings between Q4 and Q1 .
  • Deposit cost leverage and NIM: Spot total deposit rate ~1.00% at 9/30; September margin 3.51%; NIM expansion guided for Q4 .
  • Capital structure: Sub-debt redemption ($55M) on Nov 1; remaining long-term debt minimal ($1.25M FHLB advance due Feb 2028) .
  • Credit exposures: SNIC ~$526M; special mention $34.3M and classified $62.1M, both secured and performing; no expected loss .
  • Capital targets & returns: CET1 11–12% and TCE 7.5–8.5% targets; continue dividends (~40% payout), fund loan growth, and opportunistic buybacks .

Estimates Context

  • EPS: S&P Global consensus $0.74 vs actual (S&P) $0.73 (≈$0.01 miss); CPF reported GAAP EPS $0.69 and adjusted EPS $0.73 .
  • Revenue: S&P Global consensus $74.37M vs actual (S&P) $70.65M; note S&P revenue definition differs from CPF’s “total revenue” ($74.81M) calculated as NII + noninterest income .
  • Analyst coverage depth was modest (3 estimates). Expect upward bias to Q4 NIM/NII assumptions given explicit guidance and sub-debt redemption.

All starred values are from S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates/actuals.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core spread momentum intact: sequential NIM expansion and explicit Q4 guide (+5–10 bps) should support earnings, with sub-debt redemption adding tailwind .
  • Expense cadence higher near-term (incentives, one-time), but structural savings (~$1M/yr) and scale benefits from tech investments aim to re-drive efficiency toward high-50s over time .
  • Deposit growth optics conservative into Q4 (flattish FY), but stable low-cost franchise (29% NIB, 1.02% avg cost) still differentiates margins vs peers .
  • Credit normalizing within plan: lower NCOs (0.20%), NPAs contained (0.19% of assets), special mention/classified stable and well-secured .
  • Capital returns and flexibility: dividend raise to $0.28, buybacks active, CET1/TCE targets provide guardrails for continued deployment amid prudent risk posture .
  • Watch list: expense trajectory vs guidance, deposit flows in Q4, mainland SNC runoff pace, and how S&P definitions impact “headline” revenue/EPS beats. Near-term trading likely leans on Q4 NIM/NII delivery and capital actions execution.