CP
CENTRAL PACIFIC FINANCIAL CORP (CPF)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 delivered steady core improvement: NIM expanded 5 bps QoQ to 3.49% and NII rose 2.5% QoQ; EPS was $0.69 GAAP ($0.73 adj.), with loans and deposits growing $77.4M and $32.7M, respectively .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, adjusted EPS was a slight miss by ~$0.01 ($0.73 vs $0.74), and revenue missed ($70.65M vs $74.37M), noting S&P’s revenue taxonomy differs from the company’s “total revenue” of $74.81M* .
- Expenses stepped up on incentive accruals and a one-time ops-center consolidation; efficiency ratio rose to 62.84% (60.81% ex-one-time) from 60.36% last quarter .
- Capital actions are a near-term catalyst: quarterly dividend raised to $0.28 and notice to redeem $55M sub debt at par on Nov 1, expected to support Q4 NIM; management guided Q4 NII to $62–$63M and NIM +5–10 bps QoQ .
*Estimates from S&P Global Market Intelligence; see “Estimates Context.”
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Margin and NII acceleration: NIM +5 bps QoQ to 3.49% and NII +2.5% QoQ; YoY NIM +42 bps and NII +13.8% on better loan and securities yields .
- Balance sheet growth returned: Loans +$77.4M QoQ to $5.37B; deposits +$32.7M QoQ to $6.58B with core deposits +$24.6M QoQ .
- Capital returns and optimization: Dividend raised to $0.28; 78k shares repurchased; sub-debt redemption notice ($55M) to reduce funding cost; CEO: “another strong quarter… margin expansion, solid earnings, and growth” .
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What Went Wrong
- Expenses elevated: Other operating expense rose $3.1M QoQ to $47.0M on incentive accruals (+$2.1M) and a $1.5M one-time consolidation cost; efficiency ratio worsened to 62.84% (60.81% ex-one-time) vs 60.36% in Q2 .
- Consensus optics: S&P Global shows revenue miss and ~1c EPS shortfall (adj. basis), despite company “total revenue” up QoQ* .
- Mixed credit optics, though within plan: criticized loans at 1.77% of loans (vs 1.80% in Q2) and NPAs 0.19% of assets; net charge-offs fell to 0.20% (annualized) from 0.35% in Q2 .
*Estimates from S&P Global Market Intelligence; see “Estimates Context.”
Financial Results
Headline P&L and Profitability
Key Balance Sheet & Credit KPIs
Estimate vs Actual (S&P Global definitions)
*Values retrieved from S&P Global. Note: S&P’s “Revenue” methodology differs from CPF’s “total revenue” (NII + noninterest income = $74.81M) in company materials .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Central Pacific delivered another strong quarter, highlighted by continued margin expansion, solid earnings, and growth in both loans and deposits.”
- CFO: “For the fourth quarter, we are guiding to $62 to $63 million in net interest income and a net interest margin increase of 5 to 10 basis points.”
- CFO on expenses: “We recorded a net $1.5 million one-time expense related to the consolidation of our operations center… We expect total annual savings of approximately $1 million.”
- COO on deposits: “The fourth quarter is going to be a little more challenging… striving to probably keep deposit growth relatively flat year over year… optimistic on 2026.”
Q&A Highlights
- Growth mix and Hawaii runoff: Management expects Hawaii residential/home equity runoff to moderate with rate declines; healthy Hawaii pipeline with closings between Q4 and Q1 .
- Deposit cost leverage and NIM: Spot total deposit rate ~1.00% at 9/30; September margin 3.51%; NIM expansion guided for Q4 .
- Capital structure: Sub-debt redemption ($55M) on Nov 1; remaining long-term debt minimal ($1.25M FHLB advance due Feb 2028) .
- Credit exposures: SNIC ~$526M; special mention $34.3M and classified $62.1M, both secured and performing; no expected loss .
- Capital targets & returns: CET1 11–12% and TCE 7.5–8.5% targets; continue dividends (~40% payout), fund loan growth, and opportunistic buybacks .
Estimates Context
- EPS: S&P Global consensus $0.74 vs actual (S&P) $0.73 (≈$0.01 miss); CPF reported GAAP EPS $0.69 and adjusted EPS $0.73 .
- Revenue: S&P Global consensus $74.37M vs actual (S&P) $70.65M; note S&P revenue definition differs from CPF’s “total revenue” ($74.81M) calculated as NII + noninterest income .
- Analyst coverage depth was modest (3 estimates). Expect upward bias to Q4 NIM/NII assumptions given explicit guidance and sub-debt redemption.
All starred values are from S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates/actuals.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core spread momentum intact: sequential NIM expansion and explicit Q4 guide (+5–10 bps) should support earnings, with sub-debt redemption adding tailwind .
- Expense cadence higher near-term (incentives, one-time), but structural savings (~$1M/yr) and scale benefits from tech investments aim to re-drive efficiency toward high-50s over time .
- Deposit growth optics conservative into Q4 (flattish FY), but stable low-cost franchise (29% NIB, 1.02% avg cost) still differentiates margins vs peers .
- Credit normalizing within plan: lower NCOs (0.20%), NPAs contained (0.19% of assets), special mention/classified stable and well-secured .
- Capital returns and flexibility: dividend raise to $0.28, buybacks active, CET1/TCE targets provide guardrails for continued deployment amid prudent risk posture .
- Watch list: expense trajectory vs guidance, deposit flows in Q4, mainland SNC runoff pace, and how S&P definitions impact “headline” revenue/EPS beats. Near-term trading likely leans on Q4 NIM/NII delivery and capital actions execution.