Executive Summary

Q1 2025 revenue rose 30% year over year to $2.99B, a solid beat versus S&P Global consensus $2.73B; Adjusted EBITDA was $1.04B, also above consensus $0.96B. EPS per common unit printed $1.08 vs consensus $1.12, a modest miss. Bolded beats/misses below . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Distribution guidance was reaffirmed at $3.25–$3.35 per common unit for FY 2025; quarterly distribution declared at $0.820 (base $0.775 + variable $0.045) .
Net income declined 6% YoY to $641M, principally due to unfavorable fair value changes in commodity derivatives, notably related to IPM agreements; Adjusted EBITDA benefitted from higher margins per MMBtu delivered .
Liquidity remained robust (~$2.0B), aided by cash and revolvers; SPL repaid the remaining $300M of 2025 notes in Q1, supporting balance sheet flexibility .
Cheniere’s call emphasized tariff/macro resilience, permitting progress for expansions, and reconfirmed CQP distribution guidance as insulated by long-term contracts, a narrative likely to underpin investor confidence .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Revenue +30% YoY ($2.99B vs $2.30B); Adjusted EBITDA +4% YoY ($1.04B vs $1.00B) on stronger per-MMBtu margins .
Distribution guidance reconfirmed ($3.25–$3.35 for FY25) and Q1 distribution declared at $0.820, maintaining the $3.10 base .
Liquidity of ~$2.0B and repayment of SPL’s remaining $300M 2025 notes bolster financial flexibility .
Management tone: “We are reconfirming the full year 2025 guidance… and $3.25 to $3.35 per common unit of distributions from CQP” .

What Went Wrong

Net income down 6% YoY ($641M vs $682M) driven by ~$84M unfavorable variance in derivative fair value changes, including IPM-related effects .
Slight operational softness in physical metrics: cargoes down 2% YoY (112 vs 114), TBtu volumes down ~3% YoY .
EPS per common unit ($1.08) down from prior year ($1.18) and modestly below consensus ($1.12*), reflecting derivative-driven earnings variability . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$2.295	$2.460	$2.989
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$682	$623	$641
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	$1.000	$0.890	$1.038
EPS per Common Unit ($USD)	$1.18	$1.05	$1.08
LNG Cargoes (count)	114	110	112

Revenue Breakdown ($USD Millions)	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
LNG revenues	$1,720	$1,897	$2,267
LNG revenues—affiliate	$524	$513	$671
Regasification revenues	$34	$33	$34
Other revenues	$17	$17	$17
Total revenues	$2,295	$2,460	$2,989

KPIs and Liquidity	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
LNG volumes loaded (TBtu)	417	401	405
LNG volumes (exported TBtu)	418	399	406
Distribution per common unit ($)	$0.810 (Q3’24)	$0.820 (Q4’24)	$0.820 (Q1’25)
Total available liquidity ($USD Billions)	N/A	~$2.2	~$2.0
Cash & cash equivalents ($USD Millions)	N/A	$270	$94

Margin Comparison (Calculated)	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %	43.6%*	36.2%*	34.7%*
Net Income Margin %	29.7%*	25.3%*	21.4%*

Note: Margin percentages are calculated from cited revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and net income values above.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Distribution per Common Unit ($)	FY 2025	$3.25–$3.35	$3.25–$3.35	Maintained
Base Distribution ($)	FY 2025	$3.10	$3.10	Maintained
Quarterly Distribution ($)	Q1 2025	$0.820 (Q4’24)	$0.820	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 & Q-1)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Tariffs/Macro resilience	Not highlighted in CQP releases; focus on operations and distributions	CEO details tariff volatility; asserts contracted model and destination flexibility mitigate impacts	Rising focus; confidence maintained
Permitting/Regulatory	SPL Expansion DOE FTA authorization referenced	FERC permit progress; expectation of FID for mid-scale Trains 8 & 9; permitting reform prioritized by administration	Advancing
Market Supply/Demand	Q3/Q4: volumes steady, derivative effects explained	Europe vulnerability; Asia mixed; U.S. LNG share high; netbacks moderating, optimization offset	Balanced; vigilant
Financial Discipline	Distributions reaffirmed; debt paydown	Guidance ranges reconfirmed; active buybacks at CEI; debt maturity management; CQP distribution stability	Consistent discipline
Derivative/IPM effects	Significant YoY fair value impacts noted	$41M loss from fair value changes; EBITDA adjusted to exclude non-cash MTM timing	Continued accounting volatility, operationally insulated

Management Commentary

“We are reconfirming the full year 2025 guidance… and $3.25 to $3.35 per common unit of distributions from CQP.” — Zach Davis, CFO .
“We remain steadfast in our commitment to operational excellence… we recognized an income an all-time quarterly record amount of LNG for the first quarter” (CEI consolidated) .
On tariffs: “We are uniquely insulated from volatility in the short-term market via our highly contracted business model… procurement is effectively complete” (mitigating tariff cost risk) .
On permitting: “Permitting reform is front and center… on 8 and 9, we received our FERC permit… no request for rehearing” — Jack Fusco .
CQP press release: “Reconfirming full year 2025 distribution guidance of $3.25 - $3.35 per common unit, maintaining a base distribution of $3.10” . “Total available liquidity was approximately $2.0 billion” .

Q&A Highlights

Contracting and trade: Management views LNG as a key trade-balance lever; selective long-term contracting remains core (>90% contracted for future FIDs) .
Guidance and margins: Despite netbacks moderating to $5–$6, optimization and hedging locked in incremental margin; confident in mid-point, not tightening yet .
Permitting trajectory: Administration prioritizing permitting reform; specific progress and confidence in FID for 8 & 9; Sabine expansion targeted late 2026/early 2027 .
Europe vulnerability: Low inventories and ceased Ukrainian flows increase Europe’s LNG call; U.S. supply share high; potential for Q4 pull .
Funding outlook: No change in philosophy; ample cash and undrawn facilities; term loan available for Stage 3 and mid-scale 8 & 9 .

Estimates Context

Metric (Q1 2025)	S&P Global Consensus Mean	Actual (Company Reported)	Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD)	$2,734,256,080*	$2,989,000,000	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)	$961,605,950*	$1,038,000,000	Beat
Primary EPS ($USD)	$1.1223*	$1.08	Miss

Additional context: # of estimates — EPS: 5*, Revenue: 5*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Street likely raises revenue and EBITDA models modestly given beats; EPS miss is explained by non-cash derivative variance and definition differences (primary EPS vs per-unit EPS), which should limit negative estimate revisions given Adjusted EBITDA strength .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Strong revenue and Adjusted EBITDA beats versus consensus, with EPS modestly below Street due to derivative mark-to-market timing — watch for normalization and continued margin optimization . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Distribution story intact: FY25 $3.25–$3.35 reaffirmed; quarterly $0.820 maintained — supports income-oriented positioning .
Balance sheet execution (SPL note repayment; robust liquidity) provides flexibility ahead of expansion decisions and maintenance windows this summer .
Operational metrics are sturdy despite slight YoY volume softness; higher per-MMBtu margins drove EBITDA — supportive for cash generation .
Tariff/macro noise unlikely to derail CQP’s cash flows given high contracted nature; permitting progress for SPL expansion and Corpus mid-scale enhances medium-term growth visibility (confidence and regulatory momentum) .
Near-term trading: beats on top line/EBITDA and guidance reaffirmation are positive catalysts; monitor derivative volatility and maintenance schedule impact on Q2 production .
Medium-term thesis: disciplined capital allocation, contracted infrastructure, and brownfield expansions underpin stable distributions with upside from debottlenecking and incremental trains; policy tailwinds on permitting could accelerate timelines .

Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary