Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 revenue grew 17% year over year to $2.40B, while net income fell 20% to $506M on unfavorable derivative fair value changes; Adjusted EBITDA increased 4% to $885M .
• Versus S&P Global consensus, the quarter modestly missed on revenue ($2.40B vs $2.50B*), EBITDA ($0.87B vs $0.91B*), and Primary EPS (1.093 vs 1.113*); CQP’s reported per common unit earnings were $0.80, which are not directly comparable to S&P’s Primary EPS measure .
• Distribution policy remained intact: $0.830 per common unit declared (base $0.775 + variable $0.055) and full‑year distribution guidance reconfirmed at $3.25–$3.35 per unit .
• Management raised full-year 2025 DCF guidance to $4.8–$5.2B due to IRS Corporate AMT rule changes; EBITDA guidance reconfirmed at $6.6–$7.0B (catalysts include Train 4 commissioning and continued Stage 3 acceleration) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 4% YoY to $885M, driven by lower O&M and higher margins per MMBtu despite slightly lower volumes .
• Execution milestones: substantial completion of Corpus Christi Stage 3 Train 3 ahead of schedule; Train 4 pulled forward by over a month with first LNG “very soon” and substantial completion expected by year end .
• “We’re very pleased to announce… substantial completion of the third train of Corpus Christi Stage 3… Train 4 now expected to produce first LNG very soon” — Jack Fusco, CEO .

What Went Wrong

• Net income down 20% YoY primarily due to ~$162M unfavorable derivative fair value variances, including IPM‑related instruments .
• Operational variability from feed gas composition (elevated nitrogen and heavies) required process adjustments (wet mode, solvent injections/defrosts), adding complexity and downtime .
• Modest misses versus consensus on revenue, EBITDA, and EPS*; volumes recognized were slightly lower versus prior periods (104 cargoes; 374 TBtu) .

Financial Results

Core P&L – Quarterly Progression (oldest → newest)

Year-over-Year (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Revenue Segment Breakdown

KPIs

Margins

Versus S&P Global Consensus (Q3 2025)

Note: CQP reported basic/diluted net income per common unit of $0.80, which is not directly comparable to S&P’s “Primary EPS” construct .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Drivers: DCF guidance raised primarily due to IRS Corporate AMT rule revisions enabling refunds of previously paid amounts .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We’re very pleased to announce… substantial completion of the third train of Corpus Christi Stage 3… Train 4 now expected to produce first LNG very soon and is on track for substantial completion by the end of this year.” — Jack Fusco (CEO) .
• “We are reconfirming our full year 2025 guidance range of $6.6 to $7.0B in consolidated adjusted EBITDA… raising our DCF guidance to $4.8 to $5.2B… driven by IRS rule change related to Corporate AMT.” — Zach Davis (CFO) .
• “Structural shifts… have made slight but noticeable changes in the composition of feed gas… we’re adjusting operations and maintenance activities to adapt… develop long‑term solutions to maximize sustainable production.” — Jack Fusco .
• “Global LNG benchmarks remained relatively flat in Q3… we expect prices to moderate as new supply comes online, catalyzing demand in price‑sensitive markets, particularly in Asia.” — Anatol Feygin (CCO) .

Q&A Highlights

• Capital returns: ~$1.0B buybacks in Q3; authorization likely to be upsized in 2026 given liquidity and valuation; target ~200M shares over time (Cheniere complex) .
• European demand and Russia ban: EU LNG call remains strong; destination‑flexible volumes position CQP/CMI to serve Europe as Russian volumes are impeded .
• Feed gas issues: Elevated nitrogen/heavies addressed via process changes and planned maintenance; resilience program underway for 2026 .
• FID pipeline: First-phase Sabine Pass expansion contingent on FERC permit (expected later 2026); strict hurdle rates (unlevered ~10% returns, 6–7x CapEx/EBITDA, ~90% contracted) .
• 2026 production outlook: 51–53 mt total (50–52 mt P&L volume); cadence for Trains 5–7 targeted spring/summer/fall; open capacity 75–175 TBTU to be opportunistically sold/hedged .

Estimates Context

• Q3 2025 missed consensus modestly on revenue ($2.404B vs $2.497B*), EBITDA ($0.885B vs $0.906B*), and Primary EPS (1.093 vs 1.113*) .
• Management reconfirmed 2025 EBITDA guidance and raised DCF guidance on tax changes, suggesting limited need for material estimate downgrades absent further production variability; timing of Stage 3 trains and year‑end cargo timing remain swing factors .
  *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Distribution durability: Base distribution maintained ($3.10 annualized) with variable supplementation; Q3 distribution increased to $0.830 per unit; full‑year guidance reconfirmed .
• Execution as the catalyst: Stage 3 acceleration (Train 3 done; Train 4 imminent) and 2026 cadence (Trains 5–7) underpin volumes and cash flow visibility .
• Derivative swings matter: Net income volatility from fair value changes drove YoY decline; Adjusted EBITDA is the cleaner operating metric (+4% YoY) .
• Operational resilience program: Process changes and targeted 2026 maintenance to address feed gas variability should stabilize reliability over time .
• Macro setup constructive: Europe’s call on U.S. LNG persists; Asia demand expected to revive as prices normalize; contracted model provides insulation .
• Balance sheet and refinancing: 2035 notes issuance and redemption of 2026 notes reduce interest expense and support financing of SPL expansion while maintaining distribution policy .
• Near‑term trading lens: Watch for Train 4 commissioning timing, year‑end cargo timing, and optimization activity; narrative likely shifts as execution milestones are announced and DCF uplift is digested .

Additional references and data:

• Q3 press release and financial statements .
• Q2 and Q1 press releases for trend analysis .
• Distribution press release (July) .