Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue was $2.46B, net income $623M, and Adjusted EBITDA $890M; full-year 2024 revenue $8.70B, net income $2.51B, and Adjusted EBITDA $3.57B .
Introduced FY2025 cash distribution guidance of $3.25–$3.35 per common unit (base remains $3.10); Q4 distribution declared at $0.820 per unit and paid Feb 14, 2025 .
Q4 results reflected lower gross margins per MMBtu and a smaller non-cash derivative gain vs. prior-year, while cargo volumes remained robust (110 cargoes; 399 TBtu) .
CQP’s numbers were highlighted on Cheniere Inc.’s call; management reiterated a constructive regulatory backdrop, strong European pull, and Asia-led demand growth—key catalysts for distributions and Sabine Pass expansion visibility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Solid production and shipments: Q4 2024 exported 110 cargoes and 399 TBtu; FY2024 volumes loaded 1,567 TBtu, up 2% YoY .
Fiscal discipline and balance sheet actions: SPL repaid $350M of 2025 notes in Q4; liquidity stood at ~$2.2B (cash $270M; revolvers ~$1.8B total) .
Distribution visibility: FY2025 guidance $3.25–$3.35 per unit and Q4 $0.820 declared; management on the call emphasized 2025 growth and CQP distributions of $3.25–$3.35 per unit as part of consolidated guidance .
- Quote: “Looking ahead… $3.25 to $3.35 in per unit distributions at CQP.” – Zach Davis, CFO .

What Went Wrong

Margin compression and derivative volatility: Q4 Adjusted EBITDA down 15% YoY (to $890M) primarily due to lower gross margins per MMBtu; non-cash favorable changes in fair value of IPM-related commodity derivatives were ~$13M vs. ~$305M in Q4 2023 .
YoY declines: Q4 revenue down 8% YoY; net income down 31% YoY due to lower derivative gains and margins per MMBtu .
EBITDA mix sensitivity: Management flagged that netbacks and timing of Stage 3 ramp at the parent (LNG) could drive variability; while not a CQP operating issue, it affects consolidated context and investor expectations .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Margins (Quarterly)

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$2,686	$2,055	$2,460
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$906	$635	$623
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$1,050	$852	$890
EPS per Common Unit ($)	$1.42	$1.08	$1.05
Net Income Margin % (calc.)	33.7%	30.9%	25.3%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin % (calc.)	39.1%	41.5%	36.2%

Notes: Net Income Margin % and Adjusted EBITDA Margin % are calculated from disclosed revenue, net income, and Adjusted EBITDA figures. Citations reference source data.

Revenue Components (Quarterly)

Revenue Component ($USD Millions)	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
LNG revenues	$1,906	$1,479	$1,897
LNG revenues—affiliate	$730	$526	$513
Regasification revenues	$34	$34	$33
Other revenues	$16	$16	$17
Total revenues	$2,686	$2,055	$2,460

Operational KPIs

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
LNG cargoes (count)	115	104	110
Volumes (TBtu)	419	377	399
LNG volumes loaded (TBtu)	418	377	401

Non-GAAP Reconciliation source: Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation provided in the 8-K .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Distribution per Common Unit	FY 2024	$3.15 – $3.35; base $3.10	N/A (actuals paid totaled $3.25 for FY2024)	N/A (execution)
Distribution per Common Unit	FY 2025	N/A	$3.25 – $3.35; base $3.10	Introduced (maintains base)
Q4 Cash Distribution	Q4 2024	N/A	$0.820 per unit declared and paid Feb 14, 2025	Execution (paid)

Management reiterated distributions are calibrated considering debt repayment, capex, and reserves .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Regulatory/permitting environment	Positive DOE/FERC progress; planning for CCL Trains 8–9 FID in 2025	Continued bipartisan engagement; methane target and ESG focus	“More constructive backdrop” under new administration; pursuing permits at Sabine and Corpus aggressively	Improving clarity; near-term permitting window supportive
Europe gas/LNG demand	Europe storage healthy mid-year; imports lower; demand drivers mixed	Europe tighter in Q4; inventories below prior year; higher premiums to attract cargoes	Europe’s strong pull to refill inventories; potential cessation of Russian imports; ~350 cargoes needed (Equinor view cited)	Tightness increasing; LNG critical backstop
Asia demand & AI/data centers	Asia demand growth; infrastructure expansion; emerging markets	Asia regained spotlight; long-term growth durable	Continued growth led by China; hyperscaler/data center demand as tailwind in Asia	Sustained growth; incremental power demand tailwinds
Shipping/optimization	Upstream/downstream optimization; subchartering length; basis differentials	Optimization uplift contributed to guidance increase	Already locked in >$100M optimization; lower charter rates YoY	Ongoing, opportunistic; shipping softness benefits
Tariffs/supply chain	Stage 3 supply chain advancing; system turnovers	Bechtel progress; first gas imminent	“All equipment… delivered” for Stage 3 Trains 1–7; mitigated import tariff risks	Execution de-risked; tariff risk mitigated
IPM/derivatives	IPM contracts support stable margins over life; derivative fair value mismatch	Moderation in derivative volatility vs. 2023	Continued moderation; lower non-cash derivative gains vs. prior year	Less volatility; dampened YoY gains

Management Commentary

“We generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion… and $3.25 to $3.35 in per unit distributions at CQP.” – Zach Davis, CFO .
“We now have a more constructive backdrop for the development and operation of large-scale energy infrastructure… optimistic for a more clear, transparent and predictable permitting and regulatory regime.” – Jack Fusco, CEO .
“86% of our cargoes in January went to Europe… inventories are still… 25% lower than they were last year.” – Anatol Feygin, CCO .
“All equipment and materials on trains 1 through 7 have been procured and delivered… mitigating Stage 3 risks of import tariffs.” – Jack Fusco .

Q&A Highlights

Permitting/regulatory: Management described early, clear engagement with the administration and constructive permitting momentum; Sabine Pass expansion likely phased, earliest FID late 2026–2027 to maximize permitting optionality .
2025 volumes and sensitivity: EBITDA sensitivity to market margin changes and timing of Stage 3 ramp at the parent; to reach high-end production, three Stage 3 trains must be substantially complete by early Q4 2025 .
Optimization: >$100M optimization already secured; upstream basis, downstream repositioning, and subchartering cited, with lower shipping rates YoY .
SPA pricing and returns: Portfolio contracting at high end of historical range ($200–$250/mt), leveraging brownfield advantages to meet 6–7x CapEx/EBITDA hurdle; disciplined 10% unlevered returns target .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus estimates via S&P Global for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue were unavailable due to data access limits at time of analysis. As a result, beat/miss vs. consensus cannot be determined precisely at this time. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Distribution visibility improved: FY2025 guidance of $3.25–$3.35 per unit with a $3.10 base suggests continued cash return stability; Q4 distribution of $0.820 executed .
Near-term margin dynamics: Q4 YoY margin pressure driven by lower per-MMBtu gross margins and smaller non-cash derivative gains; watch LNG netbacks and affiliate pricing mix .
Operational reliability: Strong cargo cadence and TBtu volumes underscore Sabine Pass reliability; debt repayment and ~$2.2B liquidity bolster resilience .
Macro catalysts: Tight European balances and Asia-led demand growth provide constructive backdrop for LNG flows and cash generation underpinning distributions .
Regulatory window: Management emphasized an unusually constructive permitting environment, potentially accelerating Sabine Pass expansion optionality (phased approach) .
Risk watch: Derivative fair value swings can materially affect GAAP net income; lower spot optimization or netbacks could weigh on near-term EBITDA context (via parent) .
Actionable: Position for stable yield, supported by disciplined distribution framework; monitor upcoming parent-level guidance updates and any Sabine Pass expansion milestones that could enhance medium-term contracted cash flow .

Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary