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Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered record production (258 MBoe/d), robust cash generation ($337.1M operating cash flow; $241.6M levered free cash flow) and non‑GAAP profitability ($529.5M Adjusted EBITDAX; $143.5M Adjusted Net Income), with all key metrics meeting or exceeding guidance .
  • Revenue beat consensus by ~$10.2M and Adjusted EPS beat by ~$0.12; management highlighted a ~45% annualized free cash flow yield and reiterated flexible capital allocation in a volatile macro . EPS and revenue estimates from S&P Global were used for comparison.*
  • 2025 guidance was updated to reflect closed divestitures: total production range lowered (254–264 → 251–261 MBoe/d) while capital and cost guidance were reaffirmed; Q1 dividend declared at $0.12/share and ~$30M of YTD buybacks at ~$8.26/share .
  • Catalysts: corporate simplification to a single‑class share structure (April 4), active hedge program (~60% of 2025 volumes hedged), Ridgemar integration outperforming, and opportunistic buybacks alongside potential portfolio/M&A actions .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong execution and cash generation: “all key metrics met or exceeded expectations,” with ~45% annualized FCF yield and $242M levered FCF in Q1 .
  • Cost efficiency and operations: Eagle Ford DC&F costs down ~10% vs 2024; 40 gross operated wells brought online with strong early results .
  • Strategic actions: seamless Ridgemar bolt‑on closing and integration; ~$90M of non‑core divestitures YTD with proceeds accelerating debt repayment .
    • CEO: “We are investors and operators... uniquely positioned to capitalize on the current environment.”

What Went Wrong

  • LOE per Boe elevated seasonally in Q1; management flagged winter weather and fuel gas usage, guiding LOE back toward $12.25–$13.25/Boe (midpoint expected in Q2) .
  • Headwinds from tariffs (25% OCTG tariff) could add ~$10–$15M to 2025 capex (1–1.5%); management expects efficiencies to offset where possible .
  • Q/Q realized total price improvement was modest; oil price realizations slightly below prior year, highlighting continued commodity volatility .

Financial Results

Income Statement and Profitability (Quarterly)

Metric ($USD Millions unless noted)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenues$744.9 $875.3 $950.2
Net Income (Loss)$(5.6) $(169.9) $5.9
Adjusted Net Income$82.0 $132.2 $143.5
Adjusted EBITDAX$430.4 $534.8 $529.5
Operating Cash Flow$368.0 $384.4 $337.1
Levered Free Cash Flow$157.7 $259.4 $241.6
Adjusted EPS ($/share)n/an/a$0.56
Adjusted EBITDAX Margin (%)57.8% 61.1% 55.7%

Notes: Adjusted EBITDAX Margin is calculated as Adjusted EBITDAX ÷ Total Revenues using the cited values.

EPS and Revenue vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
EPS Actual ($)0.5591*0.7809*0.56*
EPS Consensus Mean ($)0.2896*0.40261*0.44372*
EPS Difference (Actual − Consensus) ($)0.2695*0.3783*0.1163*
Revenue Actual ($MM)744.9 875.3 950.2
Revenue Consensus Mean ($MM)778.1*889.4*939.9*
Revenue Difference ($MM)(33.2)*(14.1)*10.2*

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Year-over-Year (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenues ($MM)657.5 950.2
Net Income (Loss) ($MM)(32.4) 5.9
Average Daily Net Sales Volumes (MBoe/d)166 258

Segment/Product Revenue Breakdown

Revenue ($MM)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Oil548.4 608.5 619.7
Natural Gas78.8 139.9 187.4
NGLs87.3 95.9 107.6
Midstream & Other30.4 31.1 35.5
Total Revenues744.9 875.3 950.2

Operational KPIs and Costs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Avg Net Sales Volumes (MBoe/d)219 255 258
Oil Cut (%)39% 38% ~40%
Realized Price, Total ($/Boe, after hedges)$35.76 $36.30 $38.93
Operating Expense ($/Boe)$16.23 $15.08 $17.38
DD&A ($/Boe)$12.50 $13.18 $12.17
G&A ($/Boe)$7.93 $3.70 $2.45
Adjusted Operating Expense ex Taxes ($/Boe)$12.57 $11.37 $13.25

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Production (MBoe/d)FY 2025254–264 251–261 Lowered (divestiture‑adjusted)
Capital Expenditures (ex Acq) ($MM)FY 2025$925–$1,025 $925–$1,025 Maintained
Adjusted Operating Expense ex Taxes ($/Boe)FY 2025$12.25–$13.25 $12.25–$13.25 Maintained
Production & Other Taxes (% of Commodity Rev)FY 20256.0%–7.0% 6.0%–7.0% Maintained
Adjusted Recurring Cash G&A ($/Boe)FY 2025$1.20–$1.30 $1.20–$1.30 Maintained
Cash Taxes (% of Adjusted EBITDAX)FY 20252%–5% 2%–5% Maintained
Oil Cut (%)FY 202540%–41% ~40%–41% (mgmt reiterated) Maintained
Dividend per ShareQ1 2025$0.12 (Q4 precedent) $0.12 Maintained
Share Repurchases2025 ProgramUp to $150M authorization ~$30M YTD at $8.26 avg Active execution

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 & Q4)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Capital efficiency & costsRaised H2’24 guidance on capex reduction; synergy capture and service rebids Eagle Ford DC&F down ~10%; Q2 expected to be highest capex due to timing Continued improvement; timing shift to Q2
Hedge strategyActive hedging across cycles; low leverage ~60% of 2025 oil & gas volumes hedged at premium; hedges treated as separate “asset” Stable, protective posture
Portfolio optimization & M&ACentral Eagle Ford bolt‑on; $50M non‑core divestitures Ridgemar closed; ~$90M divestitures YTD; pipeline remains active despite wider bid‑ask Ongoing pruning; disciplined M&A optionality
Shareholder returnsDividend $0.12; buyback framework established $0.12 dividend; ~$30M repurchases YTD; 10% annualized yield Opportunistic repurchases during dislocation
Corporate structureUp‑C complexities persisted in 2024 Eliminated Up‑C; single‑class shares; KKR 180‑day lock‑up Simplified, improved accessibility

Management Commentary

  • Strategic stance: “We are investors and operators… uniquely positioned to capitalize on the current environment” and “built to succeed through commodity cycles” supported by low decline assets and durable hedging .
  • Capital allocation: “We will remain flexible… shifting further activity across commodities, or reducing overall activity levels” with returns and FCF as primary objectives .
  • Balance sheet and liquidity: Net leverage at 1.5x; ~$1.4B liquidity; borrowing base reaffirmed .
  • Corporate simplification: “Single class of common shares… significantly reduces reporting complexity… easier to own as an investor” .
  • Quote (CEO): “We generated an annualized free cash flow yield of approximately 45% this quarter” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital mix: Leaning toward higher gas‑weighted development given returns; flexible within oily/hybrid/dry gas ranges .
  • Activity cadence: Q2 likely highest capex quarter due to pad timing; oil production expected to rise low‑to‑mid single digits Q/Q with full quarter of Ridgemar (≈70% oil) .
  • Uinta JV flexibility: No ongoing capital commitments; ability to reduce activity with a “floor of zero” if returns dictate .
  • Hedges & operations: Hedges protect balance sheet and invested capital, but do not dictate drilling cadence .
  • Cost environment & tariffs: 25% tariff impact quantified at ~$10–$15M on capex (1–1.5%); efficiency gains expected to offset .
  • Buybacks vs deleveraging: Opportunistic, returns‑driven repurchases alongside priority on fixed dividend and balance sheet .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 revenue beat S&P Global consensus ($950.2M actual vs $939.9M estimate; +$10.2M)* .
  • Q1 2025 Adjusted EPS of $0.56 beat S&P Global Primary EPS consensus ($0.56 actual vs $0.4437 estimate; +$0.1163)* .
  • Prior quarters: Q4 2024 revenue missed modestly (−$14.1M) but EPS beat (+$0.3783); Q3 2024 revenue missed (−$33.2M) while EPS beat (+$0.2695)*.
  • Note: CRGY reports Adjusted EBITDAX (non‑GAAP). S&P Global’s EBITDA consensus is not directly comparable; we anchor comparisons on revenue and EPS.*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Crescent is executing through volatility: record volumes, robust FCF, disciplined capex timing, and durable hedging (~60% of 2025 volumes hedged) underpin downside protection .
  • Estimate momentum favorable on EPS; revenue beats/misses have been modest—trajectory supported by Ridgemar’s high‑margin oil mix and continued cost efficiency .
  • 2025 production guidance lowered on divestitures, but capital and cost guardrails are intact—expect Q2 capex peak then normalization; watch LOE normalization in Q2 midpoint .
  • Corporate simplification and KKR lock‑up improve investor accessibility and reduce complexity—potential multiple re‑rating catalyst .
  • Active capital returns: $0.12 dividend maintained; opportunistic buybacks executed at attractive levels (~$8.26), suggesting confidence in intrinsic value .
  • Tactical posture: Management’s “flexibility first” approach (including the ability to reduce activity to zero) supports FCF preservation if macro worsens; monitor commodity spreads and hedge book .
  • Near‑term trading: Look for confirmation of Q2 capex peak, oil cut uptick from Ridgemar, and continued pricing/hedge realization; medium‑term, track portfolio optimization/M&A pipeline as market bid‑ask thaws .
Citations: 
Press release & 8-K Q1 2025: **[1866175_0001866175-25-000077_crescentenergyq12025earnin.htm:0]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000077_crescentenergyq12025earnin.htm:1]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000077_crescentenergyq12025earnin.htm:3]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000077_crescentenergyq12025earnin.htm:4]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000077_crescentenergyq12025earnin.htm:6]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000077_crescentenergyq12025earnin.htm:9]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000077_crescentenergyq12025earnin.htm:10]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000077_crescentenergyq12025earnin.htm:11]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000077_crescentenergyq12025earnin.htm:12]**
Earnings call transcript Q1 2025: **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_0]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_1]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_2]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_3]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_4]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_5]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_6]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_8]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_9]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_10]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_11]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_12]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_13]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_14]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_16]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_17]** **[1866175_CRGY_3425545_19]**
Additional transcript variant: **[0001866175_2291088_3]** **[0001866175_2291088_4]** **[0001866175_2291088_5]** **[0001866175_2291088_8]** **[0001866175_2291088_9]**
Q4 2024 8-K: **[1866175_0001866175-25-000023_crescentenergyq42024earnin.htm:1]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000023_crescentenergyq42024earnin.htm:3]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000023_crescentenergyq42024earnin.htm:4]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000023_crescentenergyq42024earnin.htm:10]** **[1866175_0001866175-25-000023_crescentenergyq42024earnin.htm:11]**
Q3 2024 8-K: **[1866175_0001866175-24-000105_crescentenergy3rdquarter20.htm:0]** **[1866175_0001866175-24-000105_crescentenergy3rdquarter20.htm:1]** **[1866175_0001866175-24-000105_crescentenergy3rdquarter20.htm:3]** **[1866175_0001866175-24-000105_crescentenergy3rdquarter20.htm:4]** **[1866175_0001866175-24-000105_crescentenergy3rdquarter20.htm:10]** **[1866175_0001866175-24-000105_crescentenergy3rdquarter20.htm:11]** **[1866175_0001866175-24-000105_crescentenergy3rdquarter20.htm:12]** **[1866175_0001866175-24-000105_crescentenergy3rdquarter20.htm:14]**
Corporate simplification press release: **[1866175_0544a4db4fc74481b38615ce64e52048_0]**