CI
Crocs, Inc. (CROX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered a broad beat vs internal guidance and Street: revenue $0.94B grew ~1% YoY; adjusted diluted EPS $3.00, gross margin 57.8%, and adjusted operating margin 23.8% all came in above plan . Compared to S&P Global consensus, revenue beat by ~$29.4M*, EPS beat by ~$0.51*, and EBITDA exceeded by ~$25.3M*.
- Management withdrew full-year 2025 guidance due to uncertainty from evolving global trade/tariff policy, noting potential annualized cash cost impacts of ~$45M (10% tariff case) to ~$130M (145% China tariff plus 10% elsewhere) based on current sourcing mix .
- Crocs brand strength continued (revenues +2.4% YoY to $0.76B; international +8.9% to $0.39B), while HEYDUDE remained down YoY (-9.8% to $0.18B) but saw DTC acceleration (+8.3%) and ASP growth .
- Capital allocation remained active: ~$61M repurchases in Q1 (607K shares), with ~$1.3B authorization remaining; total borrowings $1.48B with leverage within the 1–1.5x target .
Values retrieved from S&P Global for estimates marked with *.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad beats vs plan: adjusted EPS $3.00, adjusted operating margin 23.8%, cash flow metrics ahead of plan; CEO: “both our Crocs and HEYDUDE brands contributed to the outperformance… margins, adjusted EPS, and cash flow coming in above plan” .
- Crocs brand international momentum: China grew “more than 30%,” Western Europe strong (France and Germany); Crocs was #1 footwear brand on TikTok Shop; Rees: “In Q1, we achieved 12% revenue growth in international” .
- Gross margin resilience: enterprise 57.8% (+180 bps YoY), Crocs brand 60.7% (+260 bps) driven by lower product costs and favorable mix; management confident in sustainability ex-tariffs .
What Went Wrong
- Guidance withdrawal due to tariff/macro uncertainty, creating visibility overhang; management highlighted scenarios showing sizable cash cost risk and potential demand softness .
- HEYDUDE still down YoY (-9.8% revenue), wholesale -17.9%; brand stabilization ongoing despite DTC acceleration (+8.3%) and ASP increases .
- SG&A deleverage: adjusted SG&A rate 34.0% (+520 bps YoY) as the company continued to invest in marketing, DTC, and talent to support long-term share gains .
Financial Results
Key metrics by quarter (oldest → newest)
Q1 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment and channel breakdown (Q1 2025)
KPIs (Q1 2025)
Guidance Changes
Management also illustrated tariff scenarios: ~10% incremental tariff → ~$45M annualized cash cost; 145% China tariff plus 10% elsewhere → ~$130M annualized, based on current sourcing mix .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “All in, we delivered $3 in adjusted diluted earnings per share, nearly 20% above the high end of our guidance range.”
- “One of the primary reasons we've suspended guidance for 2025 is our ability to predict the financial impact of future tariffs… 10% incremental tariff… ~$45 million… if the incremental 145% tariff on China remains… this would imply a cost of approximately $130 million…”
- “In Q1, we achieved 12% revenue growth in international… China… growing more than 30%… balanced across channels… addition of 40 new partner doors.”
- “We have identified approximately $50 million of additional savings to be realized in 2025.”
- “Crocs brand adjusted gross margin of 60.7% was up 260 basis points… tied to lower product costs and favorable customer mix.”
- “We plan to pay down debt and opportunistically buy back stock while remaining within our 1 to 1.5x net leverage target.”
Q&A Highlights
- Gross margin sustainability and pricing elasticity: management confident margins ex-tariffs; pricing lever will be used strategically; elasticity acknowledged, preferring margin protection even at lower volumes .
- Near-term demand and Q2 commentary: April strong; cautious stance given day-to-day trade uncertainty; unlikely to realize the extreme $130M tariff case due to sourcing shifts away from China .
- Marketing investment: despite $50M SG&A savings, maintain elevated marketing levels to support brand demand; social-first campaigns across geographies .
- Wholesale planning: major U.S. partners planning conservatively; Crocs aligned to prevent channel inventory build; price coordination across DTC/wholesale likely at designated points rather than retroactive changes .
- HEYDUDE turnaround: core Wendy/Wally replatformed; DTC acceleration; new door openings (~10 in 2025); resets with wholesale including returns of aged inventory .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 actual vs consensus: Revenue $937.3M vs $907.9M*; Primary EPS $3.00 vs $2.49*; EBITDA $241.5M vs $216.2M*; # of estimates: EPS 13*, Revenue 11*.
- Implications: Street likely to raise near-term EPS and margin forecasts for Crocs brand; HEYDUDE recovery path and tariff overhang may cap outer-year revisions. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Strong beat on revenue/EPS/margins with Crocs brand momentum and int’l strength; HEYDUDE DTC showing improvement even as wholesale resets continue .
- Guidance withdrawal is the primary narrative driver; monitor tariff developments and management’s mitigation (sourcing shifts, $50M cost cuts, pricing actions) .
- Margins appear structurally resilient (enterprise GM 57.8%; Crocs GM 60.7%) given product costs, logistics efficiencies, and favorable mix; watch Q2/H2 tariff timing impact .
- Capital allocation remains supportive (buybacks and debt paydown; ~$1.3B authorization), with leverage within 1–1.5x target—provides downside cushion .
- Trading setup: beat vs consensus offsets visibility overhang; headlines on tariffs and any incremental guidance color could drive volatility—pair positioning with tariff news flow .
- Medium-term thesis: Crocs brand international expansion (China, Western Europe, India) and digital/social commerce leadership sustain growth; HEYDUDE turnaround is progressing but will be paced by wholesale channel normalizing .
- Watch for pricing actions and elasticity tests; management prefers protecting margins to fund demand creation—signals EPS resilience even in softer unit scenarios .
Values retrieved from S&P Global for estimates marked with *.