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Criteo S.A. (CRTO)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered modest top-line growth with strong gross margin expansion: Revenue $483m (+2% YoY, +7% QoQ), Gross Profit margin 54% (+500 bps YoY), Contribution ex-TAC $292m (+9% YoY) .
- Adjusted EBITDA was $89m and adjusted diluted EPS $0.92; non-GAAP profitability declined YoY on planned growth investments and accelerated amortization, while GAAP net income fell to $23m .
- Management raised FY25 guidance: Contribution ex-TAC growth to +3–4% cc (from low-single-digit) and reiterated ~33–34% adjusted EBITDA margin; Q3 guide: CXT $277–283m and adjusted EBITDA $81–87m .
- Strategic catalysts: rapid adoption of Auction-Based Display onsite, expanded agency partnerships (dentsu, WPP Media CTV), Mirakl Ads integration to unlock mid/long-tail demand; $104m H1 buybacks signal confidence .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, Q2 2025 delivered broad beats: EPS $0.92 vs $0.71, Revenue $482.7m vs $274.7m, EBITDA $66.2m vs $64.8m; guidance raise is the stock narrative driver this quarter (*Values retrieved from S&P Global).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Retail Media strength: revenue +11% YoY; CXT +11% YoY, driven by onsite momentum, new client integrations, and network effects; same-retailer CXT retention 112% .
- Platform/partnership wins: global dentsu partnership to leverage complete Commerce Media stack; WPP Media collaboration moves commerce signals into CTV; Mirakl Ads integration unlocks marketplace demand .
- Management confidence and AI positioning: “building a unified, outcome-based advertising platform…anchored on AI innovation” (CEO); FY25 guidance raised .
What Went Wrong
- Profitability compression: Adjusted EBITDA down 4% YoY (to $89m) and adjusted EBITDA margin 31% (vs 35%) on planned growth investments and accelerated amortization .
- GAAP earnings lower: Net income $23m (-18% YoY); diluted EPS $0.39 (-15% YoY) .
- Cash flow/OpEx headwinds: Free Cash Flow -$36m (seasonal taxes), operating cash flow -$1m; GAAP OpEx +16% YoY to $228m, including accelerated amortization tied to Google’s Chrome cookie decision .
Financial Results
Summary by Quarter (oldest → newest)
Year-over-Year and Quarter-over-Quarter Highlights
Estimates vs Actuals (Q2 2025)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: S&P Global “EBITDA” may reflect a non-adjusted definition, while company reports “Adjusted EBITDA” .
Segment Breakdown (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Guidance Changes
Assumptions include FX rates across EUR, JPY, GBP, KRW, BRL and no additional acquisitions in the guided period .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We are building a unified, outcome-based advertising platform for the next decade of commerce, anchored on AI innovation” .
- CFO: “We are raising our full-year 2025 guidance and remain confident in our business strategy, as demonstrated by the deployment of $104 million for share repurchases in the first half of 2025” .
- CEO on Retail Media Display: “Auction-Based Display…bringing programmatic flexibility to retail environments… retailer adoption ramping rapidly, with 16 retailers already live” .
- CFO on mix and categories: APAC high single-digit media spend growth; travel +28%, classifieds strong; retail/fashion -6%; lower U.S. budgets .
- CFO on profitability drivers: Adjusted EBITDA reflects growth investments (people, events), accelerated amortization tied to Privacy Sandbox processes , adjusted EBITDA margin still ~33–34% for FY25 .
Q&A Highlights
- Agentic AI monetization paths remain open (affiliate, sponsored citations, commerce transactions); MCP setup designed for flexibility; partners showing strong interest in product recommendations and Commerce Audiences .
- Agency GTM and bundling (Commerce Max, Commerce Growth, Commerce Grid) with deeper training and co-location to drive adoption; increasing agency share across platform .
- CTV ramp: curated deal IDs through Commerce Grid; flexible DSP choice; early traction expected to accelerate into 2026 .
- Mirakl integration: unlocks demand from third-party marketplace sellers; complements retailers avoiding Amazon dependencies .
- Macro/tariffs: impact seen primarily via consumer sentiment; cautious stance on discretionary categories; retention near 90% .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 beats: EPS $0.92 vs $0.71 consensus (beat), Revenue $482.7m vs $274.7m (beat), EBITDA $66.2m vs $64.8m (beat). Note consensus EBITDA likely non-adjusted versus company’s Adjusted EBITDA of $89.4m .
- FY25 guidance uplift implies upward revisions to CXT growth and potentially to adjusted EBITDA outlook, with segment contributions: mid-single-digit Performance Media CXT and low-to-mid Retail Media growth (ex two specific clients, ~20% underlying) .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Raised FY25 CXT growth and solid Q3 guide indicate resilient demand and successful execution despite planned cost investments—narrative skewing positive on outlook .
- Retail Media onsite product upgrades (Auction-Based Display, Onsite Video) plus Mirakl integration expand TAM and improve monetization—watch adoption curve and take-rate stability .
- Platform flywheel strengthening via dentsu/WPP partnerships and broader agency enterprise motion—expect incremental media budgets across Commerce Max/Growth/Grid .
- Short-term FCF/GAAP profit softness driven by seasonality and amortization; balance sheet/liquidity strong and buybacks active ($104m H1) .
- AdTech services remains a drag; mitigation ongoing—monitor segment disclosures and mix shift to higher-return channels .
- Macro-sensitive categories warrant caution, but retention ~90% and APAC/Travel strength provide ballast .
- Trading: Positive skew on guidance raise and product/partnership catalysts; near-term volatility possible around discretionary categories and OpEx cadence; medium-term thesis levered to AI-driven full-funnel, cross-channel self-serve scale and Retail Media RTB unlock .