CSCO Q3 2025: AI orders surge past $600M amid 50bps tariff headwind
- Robust AI Momentum: Cisco’s Q&A highlighted that AI orders have already exceeded $600 million in Q3—with a non-linear potential to accelerate further as capacity increases—demonstrating strong appetite from large-scale customers for Cisco’s integrated AI solutions.
- Sustained Networking Growth: The executives underscored impressive growth across networking segments, including triple-digit sequential growth in WiFi 7 orders and sustained enterprise campus switching momentum, which positions Cisco well for technology refreshes and long-term infrastructure upgrades.
- Strategic Partnerships & Diversification: Cisco’s deepening alliances, such as its extended partnership with NVIDIA and emerging sovereign opportunities like the Human partnership in Saudi Arabia, reinforce its full-stack capabilities in networking, silicon, and security, paving the way for future revenue diversification.
- Tariff Pressures Impact Margins: Executives highlighted that Q4 guidance fully factors in the impact of tariffs (e.g., a full quarter of tariffs is expected to reduce non‑GAAP operating margins by about 50 basis points), suggesting margin compression could persist if tariffs remain unmitigated.
- Nonlinear and Uncertain AI Order Conversion: Although AI orders have shown strength (exceeding $600 million this quarter), leadership described these orders as nonlinear and capacity‐dependent, raising concerns that consistent revenue conversion from AI may be unpredictable.
- Uncertainty in Traditional Networking and Campus Refresh Cycles: Discussions on campus refresh initiatives and overall networking growth revealed historical cyclicality and caution, implying that even though orders are solid, slower or uneven recovery in these segments could dampen future growth.
| Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +11.4% (from $12,702M to $14,149M) | Total Revenue increased due to strong product and service demand, notably from the Security segment which surged +54% and improved geographic performance in the Americas (+13.7%) and EMEA (+6.4%), building on previous period recoveries. |
Total Product Revenue | +15% (from $9,024M to $10,374M) | Product revenue growth was driven by higher product orders and recovering market conditions, with significant contributions from high-margin segments such as Security and Observability offsetting earlier period challenges. |
Security Segment | +54% (from $1,304M to $2,013M) | The dramatic increase was primarily due to the integration of Splunk and strong growth in SASE and network security products, marking a notable turnaround from the previous period. |
Observability Revenue | +24% (from $211M to $261M) | Observability growth was fueled by an enhanced suite of offerings and synergistic contributions from Splunk, significantly improving from prior modest gains with an additional $50M in revenue. |
Americas Revenue | +13.7% (from $7,372M to $8,380M) | Growth in the Americas was supported by improved demand in the enterprise and service provider markets, reflecting a recovery from earlier macroeconomic caution and a rebound in product shipments. |
EMEA Revenue | +6.4% (from $3,511M to $3,736M) | EMEA experienced moderate gains driven by increased product revenue in key countries amid stabilizing macroeconomic conditions, which marks an improvement from prior slower growth. |
APJC Revenue | -1.4% (from $2,063M to $2,034M) | A slight decline in APJC was observed due to lingering regional demand challenges and competitive pressures, contrasting with growth in other geographies seen in previous periods. |
Operating Margin | 22.6% (Operating Income: $3,202M; Net Income: $2,491M) | A stable operating margin reflects robust profitability from higher revenue and strong performance in emerging segments such as Security and Observability, continuing the trend from previous periods of operational efficiency. |
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (Quarterly) | Q4 2025 | no prior guidance | $14.5 billion to $14.7 billion | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Q4 2025 | no prior guidance | 67.5% to 68.5% | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Q4 2025 | no prior guidance | 33.5% to 34.5% | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP EPS (Quarterly) | Q4 2025 | no prior guidance | $0.96 to $0.98 | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Effective Tax Rate (Quarterly) | Q4 2025 | no prior guidance | 18% | no prior guidance |
Revenue (Annual) | FY 2025 | $56 billion to $56.5 billion | $56.5 billion to $56.7 billion | raised |
Non-GAAP EPS (Annual) | FY 2025 | $3.68 to $3.74 | $3.77 to $3.79 | raised |
| Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q3 2025 | $13.9B to $14.1B | $14,149M | Beat |
Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Q3 2025 | 67% to 68% | ~65.6% (calculated from $9,278M / $14,149M) | Missed |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Q3 2025 | 33% to 34% | ~22.6% (calculated from $3,202M / $14,149M) | Missed |
Non-GAAP EPS | Q3 2025 | $0.90 to $0.92 | $0.62 (diluted, based on 2,491M net income / 4,002M shares) | Missed |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Robust AI Infrastructure Orders | Q1: Mentioned orders exceeding $300 million from web-scale customers with a target of over $1 billion. Q2: Reported $350 million in orders and approximately $700 million year-to-date, on track to surpass the $1 billion target. | Orders now exceed $600 million in Q3 with a year‐to‐date total over $1 billion, indicating strong demand and accelerated achievement of targets. | Increase in order volume and stronger market demand. |
Revenue Conversion Uncertainty | Q1: Noted the timing of revenue realization was dynamic, with most AI orders expected to convert later. Q2: Acknowledged that while orders were strong, revenue conversion might extend beyond fiscal year 2025. | Clarified that although orders are robust, most have not yet started to convert into revenue, with conversion anticipated beginning in the second half of fiscal year 2025. | Consistent uncertainty with orders converting later despite growing order volumes. |
Sustained Networking Growth | Q1: Highlighted double-digit growth in networking portfolio, particularly in data center switching and AI infrastructure demand. Q2: Noted double-digit growth driven by switching, enterprise routing, campus switching, and data center upgrades. | Emphasized continued growth with strong WiFi 7 performance, double-digit order increases in enterprise routing and campus switching, plus robust data center switching performance. | Steady and consistent growth with emerging technologies (WiFi 7) further accelerating momentum. |
Infrastructure Modernization | Q1: Addressed data center modernization through new silicon and advanced switching products. Q2: Focused on campus switching and data center upgrades with upcoming high-speed Nexus switches. | Highlighted modernization driven by integrating security and AI, mentioning quantum networking prototypes and capacity enhancements as part of modern networks. | Evolved from basic upgrades to AI-enabled, security-integrated infrastructure modernization. |
Evolving Security Product Innovation and Market Adoption | Q1: Noted the launch of new security technologies (XDR, Secure Access, Hypershield) with over 1,000 customers and marked revenue growth. Q2: Reported strong order growth, new product launches (Hypershield, AI Defense), high customer adoption, and integration of Splunk. | Introduced additional innovations such as Secure Access, Cisco XDR, AI-powered solutions, and quantum networking; maintained strong market adoption with record orders and strategic acquisitions. | Ongoing product evolution with increasing complexity; market adoption remains robust and supportive of future growth. |
Tariff Pressures and Margin Compression Risks | Q1: Focused on a one‐time positive impact from tariff refunds improving margins. Q2: Discussed anticipated tariff costs with dynamic rates (notably on China, Mexico, Canada) leading to lower projected gross margins. | Emphasized that current guidance reflects full tariff impacts with anticipated margin compression in Q4, despite mitigation efforts by the supply chain team. | Shift from a favorable one‐time benefit in Q1 to a more challenging outlook with full tariff impacts affecting margins in later quarters. |
Cyclical Traditional Networking and Campus Refresh Challenges | Q1: Reported a decline in networking revenue due to normalization of backlog shipments and highlighted campus refresh driven by new WiFi 7 and AI needs. Q2: Did not specifically mention cyclical challenges, but noted strong campus switching and a transition to WiFi 7. | Discussed cyclical challenges explicitly, noting that while overall networking grew (8% YoY), comparisons to previous cycles are difficult; campus refresh now centers on integrating security and AI, addressing evolving customer needs. | Consistent challenges with traditional cycles, but a clear shift towards driving refreshes through integrated AI and security capabilities. |
Competitive Pressures from White-box ODMs and Key Rivals like NVIDIA | Q1: Acknowledged NVIDIA as both partner and competitor, emphasizing Cisco’s long-standing expertise; white-box ODMs were not a focal point. Q2: Recognized competitive threats from white-box ODMs while discussing NVIDIA partnerships and integration of solutions like Hyperfabric. | Addressed that two-thirds of Q3's orders were systems (implying less vulnerability to white-box solutions) and underscored an evolving partnership with NVIDIA to strengthen integrated AI infrastructure. | From competitive pressures to leveraging strategic partnerships; the narrative shifts toward overcoming challenges by integrating core capabilities with partners. |
Strategic Partnerships and Revenue Diversification Initiatives | Q1: Announced initiatives such as the partnership with NVIDIA, integration with Splunk, and revenue diversification via new AI and security products. Q2: Expanded on partnerships with Splunk, acquisitions like Deeper Insights, and diversified geographic and product strategies. | Emphasized broader and more global initiatives including deepened NVIDIA integration, strategic investments in the Middle East, expanded quantum networking, and securing large security deals and acquisitions such as SnapAttack. | Consistent strategic focus with expanded geographic and technological scope, enhancing revenue diversification and market reach. |
Emerging Product Innovations in AI and Networking (e.g., AI PODs, Hyperfabric, DPU switch, Multicloud Defense) | Q1: Introduced AI Pods, an NVIDIA-based AI server, Hyperfabric as a fabric-as-a-service solution, DPU switches, and Multicloud Defense with expectations for enterprise AI deployment. Q2: Elaborated on these products with details on AI PODs, integration of programmable DPUs, and solutions to simplify data center operations. | Continued focus with a new unified architecture with NVIDIA, expansion into quantum networking prototypes, and further integration of AI across platforms to support advanced AI workloads while reinforcing security capabilities. | Steady innovation trajectory with products maturing from early-stage launches to integrated, cross-portfolio solutions that are critical for future AI and networking growth. |
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Guidance & Margins
Q: What's Q4 margin impact amid tariffs?
A: Management noted that despite rising revenue, full-quarter tariffs will push gross margin down by about 50 bps in Q4, with these assumptions already factored into guidance and a target of mid‑teens in non‑GAAP EPS growth. -
AI Orders
Q: How are AI orders growing?
A: AI orders accelerated dramatically—from roughly $350 million last quarter to over $600 million now—demonstrating nonlinear growth driven by capacity constraints and strong global demand. -
Customer Behavior
Q: Any pull-ahead buying amid tariff fears?
A: Management observed no broad pull-forward activity; customer buying remains steady, with U.S. federal orders growing in double digits even under tariff uncertainty. -
Sovereign & G200
Q: Update on sovereign orders and G200 chip?
A: Sovereign deployment orders are not yet in the books, while the G200 chip is central to systems orders from major web-scale customers, underscoring its robust performance. -
Campus Refresh
Q: How's enterprise campus demand trending?
A: Enterprise campus orders continue to show strength—with WiFi 7 orders growing triple-digit sequentially—supporting ongoing infrastructure modernization on a multi-year refresh cycle. -
Enterprise AI
Q: What about enterprise AI orders’ scale?
A: While cloud AI orders target over $1 billion, enterprise AI orders are building steadily in the hundreds of millions, boosted by capacity improvements and a deepening NVIDIA partnership. -
White Box Impact
Q: Are white boxes eroding Cisco’s market share?
A: Leadership indicated that although white box options exist, customers prefer integrated systems—with nearly two‑thirds of AI orders coming through systems—preserving Cisco’s value proposition.
Research analysts covering CISCO SYSTEMS.