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    CISCO SYSTEMS (CSCO)

    Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Aug 13, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$70.40Last close (Aug 13, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$68.00Open (Aug 14, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-2.40(-3.41%)
    • Strong AI Opportunity: Cisco delivered over $800 million in AI infrastructure orders in Q4 and more than $2 billion on the year, with roughly $1 billion recognized in revenue from these orders. This underscores rapid adoption in AI and positions Cisco well to benefit as enterprises and web-scale customers invest in next-generation networking for AI applications.
    • Resilient Networking Business: The networking segment is experiencing robust momentum with double-digit growth in key areas (enterprise routing, switching, and campus upgrades like the Cat9K refresh). This solid underlying demand, driven by both customer spend and ongoing modernization initiatives, supports sustainable growth for Cisco’s core business.
    • Accelerating Security Adoption: Cisco’s new and refreshed security portfolio—including products like Secure Access, XDR, HyperShield, and AI Defense—is demonstrating strong order growth, especially outside the federal vertical. This strategic focus on integrating security into network infrastructure is likely to drive improved margins and long-term revenue expansion.
    • Flat service revenue growth: Analysts pointed out that service revenues, which account for about 25% of total revenues, have decelerated from 6.5% down to 0% over recent quarters, raising concerns that the typically ratable nature of services could signal a slowdown in overall revenue momentum.
    • Uncertain acceleration in security growth: Questions were raised about whether security orders could accelerate to the 15%–17% growth target. Management's cautious remarks on new security product adoption and the need for significantly higher performance to meet guidance create uncertainty around the security segment's contribution.
    • Enterprise AI adoption ambiguity: Multiple questions highlighted uncertainty in how quickly and significantly enterprise customers will adopt AI-enabled infrastructure and solutions. This ambiguity, coupled with the challenge of translating large AI orders (e.g., $2B on a year‐to‐date basis) into recurring revenue, presents a potential risk for sustaining growth.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue

    Q1 2026

    $14.5B to $14.7B

    $14.65B to $14.85B

    raised

    Non-GAAP Gross Margin

    Q1 2026

    67.5% to 68.5%

    67.5% to 68.5%

    no change

    Non-GAAP Operating Margin

    Q1 2026

    33.5% to 34.5%

    33% to 34%

    lowered

    Non-GAAP EPS

    Q1 2026

    $0.96 to $0.98

    $0.97 to $0.99

    raised

    Non-GAAP Effective Tax Rate

    Q1 2026

    18%

    19%

    raised

    Revenue

    FY 2026

    $56.5B to $56.7B

    $59B to $60B

    raised

    Non-GAAP EPS

    FY 2026

    $3.77 to $3.79

    $4 to $4.6

    raised

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    AI Infrastructure Growth

    Previously discussed across Q1 , Q2 and Q3 with emphasis on strong orders from webscale customers and early-stage enterprise pipeline, but with ongoing uncertainty about revenue conversion timing.

    Q4 highlighted record AI infrastructure orders exceeding $800 million in the quarter and over $2 billion year‐to‐date, with continued uncertainty in order conversion.

    Steady, record‐level order growth is observed with a persistent theme of order conversion uncertainty. The orders are growing dramatically even as revenue recognition remains a future challenge.

    Robust Networking Business Growth & Data Center Modernization

    Q1 discussed double-digit growth with strong momentum in data center switching and emerging AI infrastructure needs. Q2 and Q3 emphasized consistent double-digit or even triple-digit growth in campus switching, enterprise routing, and industrial IoT, along with progress in AI-driven data center modernization and.

    Q4 reported double-digit growth in networking product orders and further highlighted AI-driven modernization initiatives in data centers via new smart switches and strategic partnerships.

    Consistent robust growth remains, with an evolving focus on integrating AI solutions and modernizing data centers. Partnerships and new product introductions are reinforcing demand in traditional segments while enabling innovation for future cycles.

    Evolving Cybersecurity Product Adoption & Mixed Organic Growth

    Q1 and Q2 highlighted the launch and early adoption of new products like XDR, Secure Access, Hypershield, and integration with Splunk, with organic growth boosted by these innovations even as legacy products lagged and. Q3 reinforced advanced threat detection with AI integration and demonstrated significant revenue boosts in security.

    Q4 emphasized strong adoption of refreshed products (SASE, XDR, HyperShield, AI Defense) and noted double-digit global security order growth, while legacy products continue to weigh on overall organic growth.

    New security innovations are driving increased adoption, yet legacy product drag continues to temper overall organic growth. The segment is evolving with strong new product momentum that is expected to improve market dynamics over time.

    Tariff & Margin Pressure Challenges

    In Q1, a one‐time duty drawback benefit improved margins significantly. Q2 discussions mentioned the impact of increased tariffs (e.g., 10% on China, 25% on Mexico) with planned mitigations. Q3 highlighted the full cost of tariffs contributing to sequential gross margin pressure.

    Q4 detailed tariff assumptions for FY2026 with minimal margin impact due to effective supply chain management. The full impact of tariffs is integrated into guidance and managed through mitigation efforts.

    Persistent margin pressures exist due to tariffs, but Cisco's effective mitigation practices have contained the impact. The earlier one-time benefit is not repeatable, and the focus remains on managing ongoing tariff-induced costs.

    Competitive Pressures from NVIDIA & White-Box ODMs

    Q1 acknowledged NVIDIA as both a partner and competitor, emphasizing Cisco’s deep Ethernet expertise. Q2 recognized emerging competition from NVIDIA and white-box ODMs but looked to integration opportunities with products like Hyperfabric and AI PODs. Q3 reiterated leveraging the partnership with NVIDIA while noting that most orders remain for integrated systems over white-box alternatives.

    Q4 did not provide any specific mention of competitive pressures from NVIDIA or white-box ODMs.

    Earlier periods discussed competitive pressures which have been increasingly offset by strategic partnerships with NVIDIA. The absence of discussion in Q4 suggests that these pressures may have been mitigated or deprioritized relative to other topics.

    Strategic Partnerships & Revenue Diversification

    Q1 emphasized collaboration with NVIDIA (AI Compute Platform, AI Pods, Hyperfabric) and Splunk integration to enhance security and observability. Q3 further underlined partnerships with NVIDIA, Middle East investments, and collaborations with groups like G42 and ServiceNow to drive diversified revenue streams. Q2 provided limited explicit discussion on partnerships.

    Q4 continued to stress strategic partnerships (with NVIDIA, AMD, and integration of Splunk) and highlighted diverse revenue streams through robust AI infrastructure orders and growth in security and observability segments.

    There is a consistent and broad focus on leveraging strategic partnerships across periods to drive revenue diversification. Cisco is actively integrating AI and security capabilities while broadening market opportunities through diversified collaborations.

    Flat Service Revenue Growth Concerns

    Q1, Q2, and Q3 did not report significant concerns about service revenue growth; in fact, Q1 & Q2 noted moderate growth figures while Q3 reported a 3% increase.

    Q4 CFO explicitly addressed concerns about flat service revenue growth, attributing it to a deceleration after a strong previous period driven by backlog-clearance activities, but expressed confidence in an eventual pickup.

    An emerging concern in Q4, where service revenue growth appears to be flattening following previous strong performance. Management attributes this to normalization after earlier backlog ramp-ups and expects improvement moving forward.

    Cyclicality in Traditional Networking (Campus Refresh & Federal Spending)

    Q1 highlighted the upcoming campus refresh opportunities with WiFi 7 and noted delays in federal spending due to continuing resolution pressures. Q2 demonstrated continued strong demand in campus switching and noted stable federal spending with limited impact. Q3 discussed the anticipated campus refresh with integrated security enhancements and noted mixed performance in federal spending, with some strength in DoD-related orders.

    Q4 discussed the campus refresh cycle kicking in next year (notably with Cat9K smart switches) and observed that federal spending (especially in security) has impacted overall growth, while non-federal segments remain robust.

    Cyclicality remains a recurring theme. Campus refresh cycles are expected to drive future growth, whereas federal spending continues to be volatile—experiencing delays and pressure but expected to normalize once budget issues resolve. The narrative is consistent across periods with incremental nuances on timing and segmentation.

    1. Guidance Outlook
      Q: Does deceleration reflect comps?
      A: Management clarified that the lower Q1 growth is driven by tougher year‐over‐year comparisons—not a drop in demand—with expectations that the campus refresh and underlying fundamentals will fuel robust growth moving into FY 2026.

    2. AI Revenue Recognition
      Q: How did AI orders contribute to revenue?
      A: They explained that over $2B in AI orders resulted in roughly $1B recognized revenue in FY 2025, demonstrating strong webscale momentum and a promising pipeline for next year.

    3. Security Growth
      Q: Can security reach target growth?
      A: Management pointed to double-digit growth in new and refreshed security solutions and expects these to steadily improve, aiming to approach mid-teens growth as new customers and product updates gain traction.

    4. Enterprise AI Adoption
      Q: When will enterprise AI revenue materialize?
      A: They noted that enterprise AI is currently in the pilot and early adoption stage, with increased orders expected as deployments ramp up and integrated, secure networking solutions drive demand.

    5. Services Revenue Trend
      Q: What is the outlook for services revenue?
      A: While services revenue lagged product momentum recently, management anticipates an uptick as networking shipments and ratable revenues catch up, supporting gradual growth into FY 2026.

    6. Tariff Impact
      Q: How significant is the tariff drag?
      A: They described tariff effects as minimal—built into current guidance with several exemptions—ensuring only a slight headwind on margins moving forward.

    7. Capital Allocation & Identity Strategy
      Q: How will capital be deployed amid acquisitions?
      A: Management reaffirmed a disciplined approach prioritizing growth investment, dividend support, and dilution management while enhancing their identity and zero trust platform through strategic partnerships and talent.

    8. Segment & SiliconOne Outlook
      Q: Which segments and share of SiliconOne lead growth?
      A: They ranked service provider first, with enterprise and public sector following, and expect SiliconOne to increasingly comprise a significant portion of Nexus switch ASICs over the next few years.

    9. EMEA & Sovereign Opportunities
      Q: What’s the progress in EMEA and sovereign AI?
      A: Orders in EMEA accelerated, particularly in enterprise, while sovereign AI initiatives are progressing with licensing work underway and anticipated order flow in the latter half of the year.

    10. Back-End Networking Innovation
      Q: What’s planned for Ethernet scale-up networking?
      A: Management highlighted that roadmap innovations include new Ethernet variants to serve scale-up and rack connectivity needs, positioning Cisco to meet increasing back-end AI network demands.

    11. Cloud vs. Campus Dynamics
      Q: Will Meraki integration shift hardware demand?
      A: They expect the integration of Meraki with Catalyst to offer flexible, cloud-managed options that can enhance campus adoption without cannibalizing traditional Catalyst demand.

    Research analysts covering CISCO SYSTEMS.