Canadian Solar - Q4 2023
March 14, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Canadian Solar's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. My name is Melissa, and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a Q&A session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Wina Huang, Head of Investor Relations at Canadian Solar. Please go ahead.
Wina Huang (Head of Investor Relation)
Thank you, operator, and welcome everyone to Canadian Solar's fourth quarter, 2023 conference call. Please note that today's conference call is accompanied with slides, which are available on Canadian Solar's investor relations website within the Events and Presentation section. Joining us today are Dr. Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO, Yan Zhuang, President of Canadian Solar subsidiary, CSI Solar, Dr. Huifeng Chang, Senior VP and CFO, and Ismael Guerrero, Corporate VP and President of Canadian Solar subsidiary, Recurrent Energy. All company executives will participate in the Q&A session after management's formal remarks. On this call, Shawn will go over some key messages for the quarter. Yan and Ismael will review business highlights for CSI Solar and Recurrent Energy, respectively, and Huifeng will go through the financial results. Shawn will conclude with prepared remarks with the business outlook, after which we will have time for questions.
Before we begin, I would like to remind listeners that management's prepared remarks today, as well as their answers to questions, will contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The company claims protection under the safe harbor for forward-looking statements that is contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ from management's current expectations. Any projections of the company's future performance represent management's estimates as of today. Canadian Solar assumes no obligation to update these projections in the future unless otherwise required by applicable law. A more detailed discussion of risks and uncertainties can be found in the company's annual report on Form 20-F, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Management's prepared remarks will be presented within the requirements of SEC Regulation G, regarding generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP.
Some financial information presented during the call will be provided on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. By disclosing certain non-GAAP information, management intends to provide investors with additional information to enable further analysis of the company's performance and underlying trends. Management uses non-GAAP measures to better assess operating performance and to establish operational goals. Non-GAAP information should not be viewed by investors as a substitute for data prepared in accordance with GAAP. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Canadian Solar's Chairman and CEO, Dr. Shawn Qu. Shawn, please go ahead.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Thank you, Wina, and thank you to everyone for joining our fourth quarter call today. Please turn to slide three. 2023 marked a record year for Canadian Solar. CSI Solar achieved solar module shipments of 30.7 GW, a year-over-year increase of 45%. This milestone drove our revenue to an all-time high of $7.6 billion. Despite challenging conditions, our full year net income attributable to Canadian Solar shareholders was $274 million, or $3.87 per diluted share, a historic high. Before we delve deeper, let's take a moment to reflect on our journey over the past two decades. Please turn to slide four. Canadian Solar has evolved into a full-stack solar and battery energy storage business, spanning both manufacturing and project development.
Our strategic decision to carve out CSI Solar has established it as a vertically integrated powerhouse with 118 GW of cumulative shipments. Our focus here remains on leading-edge technology and strategic, sustainable expansion. Within CSI Solar, our utility-scale battery energy storage business, e-STORAGE, is poised to deliver on a massive $2.6 billion backlog, which we continue to grow. Meanwhile, Recurrent Energy has become one of the world's largest and most geographically diverse project developer. With the recently announced $500 million BlackRock investment, it is equipped with the ammunition to execute on its business transformation..What does this all mean? We are prepared to navigate the next phase of the industry and our own evolution. Not only can we capitalize on the collaborative advantages across our businesses, but we also possess different levers for growth.
This diversified nature, coupled with our world-class team, enables our steadfast commitment to long-term value attractive, attractive growth. Turning to slide five. We see the world is grappling with a surge in clean energy demand, from data center to electric vehicles to cryptocurrency mining. These energy-hungry sectors are stressing Asian power grids, in some cases, even prompting businesses to construct their own power plants. According to BCG, data center share of U.S. electricity is set to triple from 2.5% in 2022 to 7.5% by 2030, reaching close to 400 TWh. Moreover, the intensive requirements of these buildings that must operate day and night need a mix of power generation sources, including solar and battery energy storage. Transportation is also fueling a significant increase in electricity needs.
Light-duty vehicles are expected to consume north of 30 times more electricity by 2030, according to Princeton University data. This surge is further intensified by the energy demands of computationally heavy autonomous driving technologies. Bloomberg reports that assuming energy efficiency continues to improve, as it has in the past decade, the power usage by in-vehicle computers could hit 26 TWh by 2040, comparable to the usage of approximately 60 million desktop computers. Moving on to the U.S., a key strategic market for us, please turn to slide six. On the left, you can see our Texas factory, which began production at the end of last year, has been ramping smoothly, supporting local job creation. We continue to see strong interest in and demand for our locally made products. Furthermore, to support our growing market share, we have also prepared our pipeline resources from wafer to cell to module.
Here, we note that over the past few months, certain litigation has created confusion within the industry. We reaffirm that the preliminary and final determination of the Department of Commerce set the new rules for country of origin, and Canadian Solar has responsibly adjusted its supply chain to ensure compliance with the new rules, specifically, both the wafer and four-out-of-six rules. Our strength in U.S. is founded on strong customer relationships and our trusted brand. For example, just last month, our solar PV modules powered the first-ever 100% renewable energy-powered Super Bowl. We also received the Top Brand PV USA 2024 award from EUPD, a globally renowned authority in market research. With that, let me turn the call over to Yan, who will provide more details on our CSI Solar business. Yan, please go ahead.
Yan Zhuang (President)
Thank you, Shawn. Please turn to slide seven. As noted, 2023 was a landmark year for CSI Solar. We achieved a 45% year-over-year growth in solar module shipments, reaching 30.7 GW. Our energy storage segment pipeline to a record 63 GWh, with $2.6 billion in contracted backlog as of January 31, 2024. We reached record full-year revenue of $7.2 billion. The module business tackled a challenging environment with steep declines in ASP, destocking of channel inventory in distributed generation markets, and policy uncertainty. However, we're able to mitigate impacts through structural manufacturing cost reductions. Moreover, our manufacturing and technology strategies have allowed us to differentiate ourselves in the industry. Let us take a deeper look at our transition to TOPCon on slide eight.
We observe increasing technological barriers in N-type technologies, such as TOPCon, and we're proud of the swift progress we have made. N-type TOPCon cell capacity now accounts for more than half of our total cell capacity, and is expected to reach near 80% by the end of this year. Alongside our expansion of TOPCon manufacturing, we also continued to make inroads in our Made in the U.S. modules, increased our vertical integration, and strengthened our Thailand supply chain. Shifting focus to battery energy storage, let us turn to slide nine. Storage plays a critical role in ensuring solar energy's dispatchability, stability, and security. The storage market is projected to grow massively, exceeding 1 TWh in cumulative capacity by 2030. We are well-positioned to capture growth, especially in strategic markets like the U.S., where we have a strong track record in both solar and battery energy storage.
Our differentiation lies in both product and execution. e-STORAGE is trusted by customers for its outstanding track record in delivering turnkey solutions. This trust spans operational execution, and most importantly, safety. Our strong local teams are ensuring best-in-class service, while our strong brand name and balance sheet from Canadian Solar makes our guarantees highly compelling. Customers feel at ease, backed by a Canadian company with more than 20 years of history operating in global markets. Now, with the latest iteration of our utility-scale energy storage system, SolBank 3.0, we're offering one of the market's highest density products at 5 MWh, with even more advanced safety features. We continue to make global breakthroughs. Q4 revenues from e-STORAGE were more than 10 times what we did in Q3, while realizing meaningful revenue and profit from our backlog. We're also continued to grow it.
Just between last November and January 2024, we signed significant volume, including in Australia, which we entered for the first time, and the U.K., where we signed the largest national BESS project. In the U.S., we're set to deliver our second massive Arizona project, following the signing of our first 1.2 GWh Papago project, which is developed by Recurrent Energy. We're proud to say that from the day e-STORAGE began operations, every project has contributed meaningfully to profitability. Following a softer year in 2023, when we transitioned to a fully self-manufactured product, we look forward to a blockbuster 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, e-STORAGE will deliver nearly as much as it did the entirety of 2023. Over the rest of 2024, we expect e-STORAGE to gradually grow through the quarters, with Q4 seeing nearly double Q1.
Ultimately, we expect storage to contribute significantly to both Canadian Solar's revenue and profitability. In addition, we continue to invest R&D resources into our battery energy storage business, both upstream and downstream. Gaining a stronger control on technology is crucial for both commercial and strategic purposes. Now, let me hand over to Ismael to provide an overview of Recurrent Energy, Canadian Solar's global project development business. Ismael, please go ahead.
Ismael Guerrero (Corporate VP and President)
Thank you, Yan. Please turn to slide 10. In January 2024, we proudly announced a $500 million capital commitment from BlackRock, one of the world's largest and most sophisticated renewable energy investors. The $500 million investment will represent 20% of the outstanding fully diluted shares of Recurrent Energy on an as converted basis. Canadian Solar will continue to own the remaining majority shares of Recurrent Energy after the closing of the investment. With this investment, our goal is to have 4 GW of solar and 2 GWh of battery energy storage projects in operation by 2026. The $500 million in equity capital not only equips us with dry powder to develop and own more projects, but also bolsters our balance sheet and our debt-raising capacity.
By owning this asset, we can retain more of the value we create during the development process, enjoying very stable cash flows, since most of our revenues are contracted with top counterparties. In addition, we continue to recycle capital and drive growth organically. Hence, we have sufficient growth equity capital for the next two years. Beyond that, our capital needs will depend on how aggressively we want to expand. Being able to do so above a 25% compound average growth rate without the need to raise more capital. This investment is instrumental to our transition from a pure development to a developer plus long-term owner and operator in select markets, enabling a more diversified portfolio and stable long-term earnings. With the support of BlackRock, Recurrent will concurrently push toward improving ESG standards, including across biodiversity, health and safety, community engagement, and environmental justice.
Recapping 2023, please turn to slide 11. For the full year 2023, Recurrent Energy's operating contribution footprint was light, as previously guided. We achieved 280 MW in project sales, $498 million in revenue, and $205 million in gross profit. Our gross margin more than doubled year-over-year to 41.1%, thanks to a significant sale in Japan to CSIF. While certain projects meant to close in the fourth quarter have moved to the first half of this year, we have decided to hold other valuable assets over the long run. Please turn to slide 12. During Q4 2023, we continued to focus on executing on one of the largest and most mature global solar and storage pipelines.
As of January 31, our total pipeline stood at 27 GW of solar and 55 GWh for battery storage projects. Of these, we have 12 GW of solar and 14 GWh of battery storage interconnections secured. I want to highlight, today we have in construction close to 2 GW of solar projects. This is the largest undertaking of our history. However, because we will be selling fewer projects and are swiftly building projects that will not come online until next year, 2024 will serve as a key transition year. As Shawn mentioned, data centers will be driving massive energy demand. According to the International Energy Agency, data centers and transmission networks currently consume 1.5% of the world's energy. Combined, they emit roughly the same amount of carbon dioxide as Brazil does every year.
The surge in artificial intelligence technology is significantly challenging climate targets, with the energy needed to train a single AI model exceeding that of 100 households annually. Electrification across industry is similarly driving massive energy consumption needs. Of course, electrification can only serve as an effective solution for decarbonization when it goes hand-in-hand with a significant expansion of renewable energy sources. In addition to demand catalysts, we also expect balanced micro drivers, potentially decreasing interest rates over the course of this year will benefit financing for utility-scale projects. While equipment costs and overall EPC CapEx have come down, benefiting returns, PPAs on aggregate remain stable and have even gone up in certain geographies, while suffering a correction in others.
In addition, as more solar projects come online, so too rises the need for operations and maintenance or power services, a key segment of Recurrent Energy that we have been strategically growing, both organically and through acquisitions in key markets. We now have 8.2 GW of solar and battery energy storage under O&M contracts across the world, and we expect to become a top five global player over the next year. Now, let me hand over to Huifeng, who will go through our financial results in more detail. Huifeng, please go ahead.
Huifeng Chang (Senior VP and CFO)
Thank you, Ismael. Please turn to slide 13. In Q4, we exceeded guidance on shipments, reaching 8.2 GW, a 26% increase year-over-year. We were in line with revenue at $1.7 billion, and the gross margin was 12.5%. The decline was driven by lower module ASPs and an inventory write-down. As the lion's share of PERC inventory has cleared and the TOPCon ramp-up costs will decrease over the course of 2024, we expect no further sizable impairments. Selling and distribution expenses declined 6% sequentially. The reduction was driven by lower shipping costs due to the ongoing global freight oversupply, with the Red Sea shipping disruption largely contained until the end of December. We foresee a slight but not meaningful increase over the course of 2024 due to the ongoing conflict.
General and administrative expenses declined 5% sequentially with internal cost controls. Research and development expenses increased 9% sequentially, driven by high investments in new technologies. Net interest expense in the first quarter was $18 million, up from $11 million in the prior quarter. This was mainly driven by increased financing and a comparatively lower interest income. Net foreign exchange gain in the first quarter was less than $1 million. Total net income was negative $3 million, with net income attributable to Canadian Solar shareholders at a negative $1 million, or diluted EPS of negative $0.02. Now, turning to cash flow and the balance sheet. Please turn to slide 14.
For the full year of 2023, we generated approximately $685 million in operating cash and spent over $1.1 billion in CapEx, below expectation as we slow down the payment of certain capacity expansion plans. Hence, some CapEx for 2023 will be realized in 2024. We ended the period with a healthy cash balance of $3 billion and a total net debt of $1.7 billion. Leverage, measured as net debt to EBITDA, excluding restricted cash, increased slightly quarter-over-quarter to 2x due to the incremental borrowing for working capital and additional vertical integration for CSI Solar and a new project development for Recurrent Energy. For 2024, we expect CapEx to be approximately $1.8 billion as we further vertical integration plans and invest in U.S. manufacturing.
We note that this number is slightly higher also due to a timing effect, whereby certain remaining payments from the end of 2023 will be carried over to 2024. Recall, in 2023, we guided to $1.5 billion, but only spent $1.1 billion. Now, let me turn the call back to Shawn, who will conclude with our guidance and business outlook. Shawn, please go ahead.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Thanks, Huifeng. Let's turn to slide four, slide 15. For the first quarter of 2024, we expect solar module shipments by CSI Solar to be in the range of 6.1 GW to 6.4 GW, including approximately 235 MW of solar modules shipment to our own project. Total revenue are expected to be in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. As Yan mentioned, in this business, we are constantly balancing between margin and volume. With our focus on profitable growth, our conscious decision to control volume will generate an improved gross margin expectation between 17% to 19%. This improvement is further bolstered by e-STORAGE's more meaningful profit contribution. For the full year, 2024, we reiterate...
CSI Solar's total solar module shipments guidance to be in the range of 42 GW to 47 GW. CSI Solar's battery storage shipments are expected to be between 6 GWh to 6.5 GWh, reflecting significant contribution on revenue and profitability. We also reiterate revenue guidance for the full year 2024, which we expect to be in a range of $8.5 billion to $9.5 billion. Finally, let me speak to our view of the market growth trajectory.. Coming out of a challenging 2023, we are optimistic about 2024. We expect to see a rebound in demand as distributed generation market have cleared channel inventory and emerging market are poised to unleash its potential.
As supply and demand rebalance toward the second half of the year, we expect potential improvement in pricing, especially of TOPCon solar module products. We differentiate between industry overcapacity versus oversupply, as not all capacity is truly effective, possessing the technology, bankability, and reliability that our customers' projects need. As the market undergoes further normalization and consolidation, we see vertical integration, advanced technologies, and a robust go-to-market strategy as key to competitive edge. With its strong global track record, Canadian Solar has built unparalleled trust over the past two decades. Our steadfast commitment to profitable growth, combined with our long-term strategic investments, enables us to deliver enduring value to our shareholders. With that, I would now like to open the floor for questions. Operator?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. Our first question comes from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Colin Rusch (Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Growth & Resource Optimization Research)
Thanks so much, guys. You know, and I guess the first question is really around the pricing dynamics and strategy for the energy storage business. Obviously, there's a lot that's been going on around the supply chain, and there's an awful lot of demand. So I just wanna understand how you guys are thinking about passing on some of the cost reduction on the cells relative to, you know, trying to take advantage of some of the kind of intense demand that we're seeing out there.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Yeah, Colin, I would give a simple answer, and then, then let's see if Yan have anything to add. Yes, if the battery cell or if the material, mainly lithium carbonate price go down, we always pass, we always pass the value to our customers. However, the e-STORAGE product typically has a very long contracting period. So some of... Well, actually, most of our contract which we will deliver this year were contracted at least 12 months ago. So we take- we took risk, and our customer also takes risk. And the pricing we give to our customer allow our customer to achieve their financial goals, therefore both sides are happy.
Moving forward, if we see, let's say, a long-term trend of the easing of the lithium carbonate price, we always pass this saving to our customer.
Colin Rusch (Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Growth & Resource Optimization Research)
That's super helpful. And I guess the second question is-
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Hopefully, your question.
Colin Rusch (Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Growth & Resource Optimization Research)
The second question is around interconnection queues and time frames. You know, if you guys have the right technology portfolio. So as we've seen, interconnection queues extend out a little bit here over the last few years, and as you've diversified some of the end markets that you're doing some of these larger developments with, you know, are you seeing opportunities for integration of incremental technology? Would you guys start to bring that in-house? Is storage enough to really deal with that? And how do you see, you know, those interconnection queues evolving here over the next couple of years?
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Ismael, this is a question about the interconnection queue. Do you want to
Ismael Guerrero (Corporate VP and President)
Yeah.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Answer this question?
Ismael Guerrero (Corporate VP and President)
Sure, happy to take it. Thank you, Shawn. Look, we keep on seeing delays, Colin. Hi, by the way, and thanks for the question. We keep on seeing delays. Things are getting worse and worse. In PJM, for instance, you probably saw that they stopped taking more applications recently. That's why we believe that our 12 GW of interconnection granted already has very strong value. And therefore, 13 GWh, we have the storage already granted of interconnections have a huge value too. We don't think that it's gonna ease. I think it's gonna be getting more and more difficult. And the main things that we are starting to think about is, how can we start being less demanding on the network and start to use storage behind the meter more? And even...
have plants that are serving directly in application, like, for instance, data centers or, desalination, platforms and all this kind of stuff, so that we can serve directly the load instead of having a grid need it. Those are the things we are working on. I don't think it's gonna get easier. I think it's gonna get worse. That's my two cents.
Colin Rusch (Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Growth & Resource Optimization Research)
Okay. I'll, I'll take the rest of it offline. Thanks so much, guys.
Ismael Guerrero (Corporate VP and President)
Thank you, Colin.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vikram Bagri with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Vikram Bagri (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning, everyone. I was wondering, like, the implied valuation of CSI Solar were, and your investment from BlackRock, is significantly higher than where the stock is trading. I was wondering if any thoughts on how you can close this valuation gap? Is there a strategy to close that valuation gap?
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Oh, that's a very good question. Actually, I don't know how to answer it. However, we will present this in all of our investor meetings, and let the investment community to see this gap, to see this mismatch of the value. And I hope after a while, people will understand that there's a big, indeed, a big gap between the... not only the value by BlackRock of our Recurrent business, but also the market cap of our CSI Solar business. If you add that two part together, it's way higher than CSIQ's market cap. Yes, we all see it, and we are, I mean, we have been constantly looking for ways to close this gap.
Vikram Bagri (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you. On the same topic, the storage business that you have is roughly now as large as one of the publicly traded peers, and will be relatively large within CSI segment as well. Would you look to break out this business separately this year, both on the revenues and margin for storage? And, if you can share what your margin outlook is for storage, that would be helpful as well.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Well, again, another very good suggestion. As I said, we always look for ways to maximize, to increase the shareholder value. However, carve out the business is not an easy task, so I don't think we can carve out the e-STORAGE this year. However, as I said, moving forward, we're always look you know you know interested in every method to to maximize the shareholder value.
Vikram Bagri (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Great. And then one final question before I pass it on. Impressive module shipments in fourth quarter. I was wondering what surprised you on the upside leading to the above guidance volumes, especially in such a challenged market? And on the same topic, can you share how much of the guided volumes for 2024 on module side are already contracted versus what you need to still contract? Thank you.
Yan Zhuang (President)
Well, so, 2024 is actually pretty unique year, 'cause we all know that in Q1, we're actually in the industry is under pressure on margin. Price came down pretty fast since Q4 last year. However, we're expecting the second half of bouncing back. Q2 is likely to be a transition quarter. So if you ask me, we're kind of try to make the right balance between margin and volume. So, we believe this year is gonna be uptrend year. So we believe that the distributed generation, which is the distribution channel, price will bounce back, and actually we're gonna have a better margin moving forward. But the contracts for that channel always signed, like, a few weeks before shipment.
But we have a very loyal channel, right, in, you know, worldwide in that channel, so we have a very high confidence volume from the distributors and the installers around the world. So for, and also for U.S. market, which is, we, you know, the, right now, the highest priced and market with the highest margin, we have a very high proportion of our capacity signed up already, and especially for the more profitable, even more profitable U.S. factory, volume. So for other markets, it really depends. So, for example, in Japan and some higher priced market, we have a higher proportion of signed order. If it is low priced market, we try to, you know, manage the pace.
However, we do see some markets, demand really coming up, very strong even now, as early as, as March, which is Pakistan. So we're locking up volume at a pretty healthy price right now.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Right. So-
Vikram Bagri (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks a lot.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
So I would add a few comments. I will add a few comments on Yan's comment. You asked us how much of our guided volume, annual volume are contracted. As I mentioned in the guidance section, for Q1, we strategically decided to control the volume in order to protect the margin. Therefore, with this strategy, this moment, we strategically try not to contract too much of the 2024 annual volume into long-term contract, because we believe, as Yan said, the pricing will improve. We think the module pricing in some of the market are too depressed, which will improve. It has to improve.
So Yan would rather want our sales team to control the volume so that we can pick up better price that contract later in the year. But we do believe that both the volume and the price, well, actually, the volume is there, but we want a better price before we commit into the volume.
Vikram Bagri (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks, everyone.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen with Roth MKM. Please proceed with your question.
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Everyone, thanks for taking my questions. As a follow-up on that last thread in terms of pricing, I think, Shawn and Yan, you guys have talked about you expect pricing to improve. It has to improve, Shawn, you just said. Can you quantify this in any way? Specifically, you know, I think, our rough estimate for your module ASP in Q4, and it could be wrong, but it might, we have roughly $0.15/W. What do you think that module ASP, on an actual basis, could be for you in Q1, 2, and 3? Thanks.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Well, we are not guiding the Q1 ASP, but we give you the growth margin guidance, which is 17% to 19%. But in order to get this growth margin, we sacrificed our volume. So Yan said we controlled volume. We only plan to ship 6.1 GW to 6.4 GW. As you notice that we shipped over 8 GW in Q4, so obviously we have the capacity to ship at least 8 GW, if not more. But we decided to control the volume. And now, moving forward, we think the module ASP in later quarters should be on par, if not better, than the Q4 ASP. Let's put it that way. That's you know, Yan and I have this view. Let's see whether we are right or not.
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got it. Okay. And what do you think are the dynamics that result in the better pricing? You know, you said it has to improve, so what are the assumptions in your conclusion that it has to improve? You know, we've heard that the channel inventory in Europe has cleared for DG. We've heard now, if the customers in Europe wanna order modules, they have to get a production slot. So, can you talk about the utilization rates for the manufacturers in Asia, in China, and Southeast Asia? Is it substantially lower now to control the supply? So, can you elaborate, Shawn, on why things have to improve? Thanks.
Yan Zhuang (President)
Okay. So, Philip, well, I think, first of all, if you look at China and overseas market, China market, actually, we believe, this year's growth is gonna be some moderate growth, because last year it just grew too much. But this year, we still believe it's gonna be growth, but it's gonna be moderate. Overseas, we're gonna see a strong shipment into the channel, in distribution channel, because that channel was blocked since Q3 last year, and the destocking actually has completed, mostly. So we're seeing the demand is bouncing back with the pricing improvement already in both U.S. and the Europe and Australia. And we also see new markets like Pakistan is growing pretty rapidly, has a very strong demand in Q2 already starting.
So your typical market, you know, will have growth. It may not be a revolutionary growth, but it will grow. So we expect this year, this year's total installation, it's gonna be like 20% growth comparing to last year. If that is the assumption, then we see that in moving into second half of the year, we should see the ones with TOPCon capacity will actually have a much better pricing. And we also see the capacity, as we mentioned already, Shawn mentioned that already, capacity versus oversupply. Because you know, bankable capacity is actually comparing to the seasonal high demand in second half.
Remember, the second half demand is going to be much higher than first half, so in a few months' time, you're gonna see a very high demand versus the effective capacity. Effective capacity means bankable, meaning, with the right cost and the features, and also, some the capacity that can maneuver around to the trade barriers and traceability and ESG issues. So that's why we believe, it will actually go up, in second half.
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Great, Yan. That's very helpful. Thank you. Shifting over to the UFLPA situation in the U.S. You know, can you talk through if your imports into the U.S. are still being detained? If so, you know, what percentage? Is it like a very small percentage, sub-10%, or is it modest and maybe like closer to 10% to 30% of your imports into the U.S. might be detained? And do you have a sense for if, you know, if you are detained in that at all, you know, what, what's the timeline as to when those detentions might be released? Thanks.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Well, I can only say to you that we get most of our volume released and imported into U.S. Now, however, I can't predict how CBP respond or process every lot which they have questioned. So, this is not something I can predict, but you know, the historical pattern from other suppliers. So I suggest you go, I mean, maybe you can draw reference from what you see from other importers.
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you, Shawn. One last one. In terms of storage, can you give a little more color on the outlook for growth and margins? Some of our checks suggest you guys may have recently cut your storage pricing meaningfully, maybe 10% to 20% cheaper versus peers. We're also hearing that you're telling customers that you may want to own all the data. Can you talk about the rationale for some of these actions? Thanks.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
I didn't quite get your question. Who said we are cutting price 10, 15%?
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
10% to 20%. Well, I can't share exactly who, but somebody in the storage ecosystem was highlighting that your pricing was reduced in storage meaningfully recently, and so you might be 10% to 20% cheaper versus peers. It's, it's only from one source. I haven't fully verified everything, but just curious, have you guys recently-
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Well-
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
reduced pricing meaningfully?
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Well, if we are 10 to 15% below peers, I'm very happy because we are still getting very good margin on the e-STORAGE product. That probably shows our very strong cost control and competitiveness. As I said, you know, to Colin's question, that when the battery cell price go down and the lithium carbonate price go down, we do pass on some of that saving to our customer. So it's not surprising that if some of the price we offer today is better, is lower than the price we offered a year ago or two year ago, so that won't surprise me.
Yan Zhuang (President)
So Philip, once again, we are not selling cheaper than our peers. If we're selling 10% lower, that's the market price.
Philip Shen (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Really appreciate the color. Thank you, guys. I'll pass it on.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
Hey, guys, thanks for taking the questions. I had a couple, sort of modeling/housekeeping ones. You know, Huifeng, you mentioned a write-down in the quarter. How much did that impact gross margins for CSI Solar in 4Q? And it sounds like, I guess, no residual impact is expected, going forward.
Huifeng Chang (Senior VP and CFO)
About a couple points. It's a combination of settlement, one, trade case and some write-down. And then when we ramp up the TOPCon cell manufacturing, in the process, there is an expense in ramp-up efficiency and getting know-how. So that process is also completed. So going forward, we should be okay.
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
Okay, so a couple hundred bips. Understood. And then for your Q1 margin guidance, I had a couple questions around that. I guess, first off, are you assuming either for Q1 guidance or, yeah, maybe just give us your thought process around how you're guiding and embedding it in for the rest of the year, any impacts from IRA credits?
Huifeng Chang (Senior VP and CFO)
Yes. Yeah. In the U.S., module manufacturing started end of last year and now quickly ramping up, so we'll pick up some manufacturing credits. But more important is that our TOPCon ramp up also completed in China, so that's very helpful. And then, also, battery storage will contribute a significant profit margin to CSI Solar. So everything working together, I think, we have seen the worst have passed.
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
Okay. Is there... I mean, I suppose we can kind of back into it, but can you give us a ballpark range of what IRA impact is for Q1 guidance on gross margin, and then what that could become over the course of 2024 as you ramp additional volume in the US?
Huifeng Chang (Senior VP and CFO)
I can't, we don't disclose all these details, but I can share with you the framework later on.
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
Okay, fair enough. We'll take that offline. I guess on e-STORAGE, if you look at the revenue breakout you guys provide, you know, obviously it seems like battery storage revenue was pretty significant in Q4. And CSI Solar still, you know, only managed to do a 12% gross margin. You're obviously saying e-STORAGE margins are contributing going forward. So I guess the question would be, what is, presumably e-STORAGE gross margins are higher than solar module margins embedded in your Q1 guide. Is it fair to assume that for the balance of 2024, e-STORAGE gross margins would remain above your gross margins for solar modules?
Huifeng Chang (Senior VP and CFO)
I cannot confirm quantitatively-
Yan Zhuang (President)
Yes.
Huifeng Chang (Senior VP and CFO)
But I think you are thinking in the right direction.
Yan Zhuang (President)
Well, it is. I can confirm.
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
Thank you, Yan. Okay, that's helpful.
Yan Zhuang (President)
Thank you, yeah.
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
Is there any, I mean, directionally, it seems like it's above. I mean, are we talking about a meaningful delta between what you're making on storage versus solar module only?
Yan Zhuang (President)
I can say that, for 2024, the gross margin for e-STORAGE is around 20%.
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
Great, that's helpful. Last one for me, and I'll pass it on. All this color is super helpful from a modeling perspective. If I look at your storage volume targets, and then I look at kind of where pricing is for solar panels versus, you know, where they started the year, it kind of and you're basically, you know, at the midpoint, implying about $1 billion of incremental revenue growth, 2024 versus 2023. It seems like almost all of it is coming from storage and very little revenue growth in modules. I guess, one, is that the right assumption? And then, two, what should we be thinking about the energy business? You did about $500 million of revenue in 2023.
Presumably, that would be flatter down, given you're hanging on to some projects, or what should the directionality of modeling for revenue across the three buckets look like, module versus battery? Obviously, battery up a lot, maybe all of it, but module versus energy, in terms of revenue growth year-over-year.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Yeah, this is Shawn speaking. We will see some revenue growth even on the solar module side, although, the module growth is not proportional to the volume growth because of the ASP drop from 2023 to 2024. But meanwhile, yes, you are right. The e-STORAGE revenue growth will be significant. The e-STORAGE revenue, for first of all, volume-wise, e-STORAGE will grow from less than 2 GWh in 2023 to 6 GWh to 6.5 GWh in 2024. Now, the ASP for e-STORAGE also dropped a little bit comparing with 2023, but not that significant. So yes, the revenue growth of e-STORAGE will be very strong.
On the Recurrent side, you are also right that we will hold on, plan to hold on most of our project in the U.S. and in Europe. We will probably sell some of our project in Latin America and in Japan. But overall, we are holding more asset, a lot more asset this year. So you are not going to see that much revenue contribution from Recurrent. However, we are building a significant recurring revenue by holding the project. So in a year or so, in 2025 or 2026 timeframe, you will see strong... start to see strong revenue contribution from Recurrent.
Brian Lee (Managing Director)
Okay. Thanks, everyone. Thank you, Shawn. I appreciate it. I'll pass it on.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we've come to the end of our time allowed for questions. I'll turn the floor back to management for any final comments.
Shawn Qu (CEO)
Thank you for joining us today, for your continuous support. If you have any questions or would like to set up a call, please contact our investor relations team. Take care, and have a nice day.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.