Executive Summary

Q3 2024 reported “old Complete Solar” revenue was $5.536M with GAAP gross margin of -57% and GAAP operating loss of $(29.8)M; on a preliminary “NewCo” simple-sum basis (post SunPower asset acquisition), combined Q3 revenue was $117.3M with an implied operating loss of approximately $(40)M due to pre-layoff cost structure and bankruptcy-related write-offs .
Management cut Q4 2024 outlook versus its prior plan: revenue now expected at ~$80M (down from ~$100M planned) as the one-time Q3 backlog benefit rolls off; operating loss expected to narrow to $(2)–$(11)M on significant opex reductions to ~$17M from ~$43.5M in Q3 .
Integration actions are deep and rapid: 1,204 SunPower employees were hired (versus 65 pre-acquisition), total headcount has been reduced from ~2,800 to ~1,200 with further reductions planned; IT is consolidating on Blue Raven’s “Albatross” platform to remove duplicative systems and leases are being rationalized .
Liquidity and capitalization: $80M raised via convertible debt (final $14M expected in early December), year-end cash expected at ~$20–$25M, and fully diluted shares projected at ~143M after the additional raise; the company also secured rights to use the SunPower brand in the U.S., which management views as a pricing premium lever .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Closed SunPower asset acquisition (New Homes, Blue Raven, Dealer) and won Delaware Bankruptcy Court ruling for U.S. rights to the SunPower brand, enabling immediate scale and go-to-market leverage .
Preliminary combined Q3 revenue of $117.3M demonstrated latent scale from SunPower backlog; New Homes is the only profitable division currently, providing a foundation for mix improvement and execution credibility with national builders .
Aggressive cost actions already in flight (opex expected to drop from ~$43.5M in Q3 to ~$17.0M in Q4), with further savings anticipated from headcount reductions, lease consolidation, and IT simplification; Rodgers: “Our Q3’24 opex of $43.5 million will shrink to $17.0 million in Q4’24…” .

What Went Wrong

Q4 revenue reset to ~$80M from the initial $100M plan as Q3’s one-time SunPower backlog benefit will not repeat; integration friction and seasonal constraints (winter) weigh on near-term installs .
Combined Q3 operating loss of approximately $(40)M (and $(73.8)M including bankruptcy-related write-offs) highlights the cost duplication and transition burden; Blue Raven and Dealer are presently loss-making .
Builder attrition in New Homes post-SunPower bankruptcy (management estimates 20–30%); backlog remains >10,000 homes, but credibility must be re-earned via service solutions (e.g., SunVault monitoring arrangements) .

Financial Results

Consolidated/Company-Level (Old Complete Solar – GAAP and Non-GAAP)

Metric	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$10.040	$4.492	$5.536
Gross Margin % (GAAP)	23%	-20%	-57%
Gross Margin % (Non-GAAP)	24%	-20%	2%
Operating Income (Loss) GAAP ($M)	$(7.544)	$(9.494)	$(29.768)
Non-GAAP Net Loss ($M)	$(6.179)	$(6.624)	$(6.546)
Cash Balance ($USD Millions)	$1.786	$1.839	$79.502

Notes: Non-GAAP net loss reflects adjustments for D&A, stock-based comp, and restructuring (acquisition, headcount reduction/severance, other non-recurring) per reconciliation .

“NewCo” Preliminary Q3 2024 (Simple Sum of Separate Entities; Unaudited)

Division	Revenue ($USD Millions)	Operating Loss – Prior Report by Division ($USD Millions)
New Homes	$53.2	$(11.9)
Blue Raven Solar	$43.5	$(6.9)
Dealer (+ old CSLR)	$20.6 (incl. $5.5M from old CSLR)	$(21.3)
Total (Preliminary)	$117.3	$(73.8) including bankruptcy/acquisition write-offs
Total (Adjusted View)	—	~$(40.0) due to duplicative pre-layoff costs

KPIs and Capital

Convertible debt raised: $80M; final $14M expected early December to complete funding; Q3 cash balance $79.5M .
Headcount: ~2,800 down to ~1,200, with additional reductions planned; 1,204 SunPower hires vs 65 pre-merger .
Rights to SunPower brand (U.S.) secured; management expects premium pricing benefit over time .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Combined Revenue ($M)	Q4 2024	~$100 (Rev 5 plan)	~$80	Lowered
Operating Income (Loss) ($M)	Q4 2024	~$(1.0) loss (sustainable)	$(2) to $(11) loss	Widened loss range
Opex ($M)	Q4 2024	N/A	~$17.0 (from ~$43.5 in Q3)	New disclosure (cost-down)
First Profitable Quarter ($M OI)	Q2 2025	+$0.4M OI	Reiterated target to breakeven/positive in 2025	Maintained year, refined run-rate
Breakeven Revenue Run-Rate ($M)	2025 target	N/A	~$80M quarterly	New disclosure
Cash at Year-End ($M)	FY 2024	N/A	~$20–$25	New disclosure
Fully Diluted Shares (M)	FY 2024 exit	N/A	~143	New disclosure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q1 2024)	Current Period (Q3 2024)	Trend
Integration & Cost Actions	Funding constraints and inability to buy panels weighed on operations; scaling challenges pre-deal .	Rapid integration, deep cost cuts (opex to ~$17M), headcount rationalized to ~1,200, leases/IT consolidation on Albatross .	Improving cost structure, integration intensity high.
Revenue Trajectory & Backlog	Prior weakness driven by capital constraints; latent orders existed but not executed .	Q3 $117.3M inflated by SunPower backlog; Q4 reset to ~$80M; winter seasonality acknowledged .	Down sequentially near term; aiming for sustainable ~$80M breakeven run-rate.
Division Profitability	N/A	New Homes profitable; Blue Raven/Dealer loss-making; mix and execution focus .	Mix improvement targeted.
Brand & Pricing	N/A	SunPower U.S. brand rights secured; management highlights historical pricing premium potential .	Positive strategic lever for medium term.
Customer/Builder Relations	N/A	20–30% builder attrition post-bankruptcy; >10,000-home backlog; service fixes (SunVault monitoring) to rebuild trust .	Rebuilding relationships; execution critical.
Capital & Liquidity	N/A	$80M convertible raised; YE cash ~$20–$25M; FD shares ~143M .	Liquidity bolstered; dilution quantified.
Regulatory/Macro	N/A	IRA tax credits viewed as relatively safe; market already priced in political headline risk per management .	Monitoring political risk; no plan change.

Management Commentary

“Our Q3’24 results of $117 million in combined revenue overstates our current revenue rate due to the pileup of SunPower backlog in Q1 & Q2’24. Our current belief is that our revenue will be $80 million in Q4’24…” .
“Our Q3’24 opex of $43.5 million will shrink to $17.0 million in Q4’24 due to actions already implemented with more to follow in each quarter of 2025.” .
On breakeven run-rate: “$80 million…we built the company to survive on the revenue we can make…” .
On divisions: “Right now…New Homes…that’s the only one making money. Blue Raven is not.” .
On IT consolidation: “Blue Raven had special software…‘Albatross’…we’re going to use that for everybody and…get rid of the software expenses in the other two.” .
On shares/cash: “Fully diluted shares…approximately 143 million…[and] approximately $20 to $25 million [cash]…exiting the year.” .

Q&A Highlights

Builder/backlog dynamics: Management estimates 20% attrition to date (potential trough ~30%) in New Homes; backlog through Q4 and 2025 remains >10,000 homes, with relationship rebuilding underway .
Breakeven revenue run-rate: ~$80M per quarter; winter seasonality (Q1) acknowledged; further cost cuts planned to operate under that umbrella until volumes scale .
Capitalization: Fully diluted shares ~143M and YE cash ~$20–$25M after the final $14M tranche; emphasis on avoiding near-term raises .
C&I expansion: Opportunistic commercial projects already underway (e.g., ~37 Starbucks sites) leveraging existing divisions; no stand-alone C&I division near term .
Cost-down roadmap: Headcount reductions, lease consolidation (e.g., Austin to one building), procurement/ops work with Ayna (ex-McKinsey) to drive structural savings .

Estimates Context

S&P Global (Capital IQ) Wall Street consensus for CSLR was unavailable via our system at the time of this analysis; therefore, we do not present “vs. consensus” comparisons for revenue/EPS/EBITDA this quarter. Where applicable, we benchmarked results versus management’s prior internal plan and current guidance windows instead .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q3 combined revenue showed latent scale ($117.3M), but the sustainable run-rate is closer to ~~$80M near term as backlog clears; the stock narrative pivots to execution on the $80M breakeven plan and opex delivery (~~$17M in Q4) .
Mix matters: New Homes is profitable; accelerating builder trust repairs (monitoring, service arrangements) and capturing backlog conversions are key to margin stabilization .
Cost program is the primary lever: deep headcount, lease, and IT rationalization plus third-party ops support (Ayna) are designed to compress losses from Q3’s implied ~$(40)M toward the $(2)–$(11)M Q4 target .
Brand premium optionality: U.S. rights to “SunPower” could support future pricing power and win rates as integration matures, if service quality and delivery improve .
Capital runway improved with $80M raised; YE cash ~$20–$25M provides time to execute the integration and cost actions without immediate external capital needs (but dilution is now explicit at ~143M FD shares) .
Medium-term setup: If the company sustains ~$80M quarters and executes cost-downs, breakeven in 2025 is feasible; upside depends on division-level profitability normalization and inorganic opportunities during sector stress .
Trading framing: Near-term stock moves likely track evidence of opex delivery to ~$17M and Q4 revenue realization near ~$80M; any credible proof points on builder wins and service remediation would be positive narrative catalysts .

Citations:

8-K (Item 2.02) and Exhibits (Press Release and Transcript)

Complete Solaria, Inc. (CSLR)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary