Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Enhanced Test Synergy: The synergy rate between the SCC and melanoma tests improved from 55% in Q1 to 68% in H1, indicating robust cross-selling opportunities and increased physician adoption across multiple tests.
- Robust Demand and Volume Growth: Significant increases in test report volumes for key assays (e.g., 60% year-over-year growth in DecisionDx-SCC and strong growth for TissueCypher) support a bull case of rising market demand and portfolio diversification.
- Mitigated Payer Coverage Risk: Despite ongoing discussions on SCC coverage by MolDX, management noted that the test remains covered by Medicare following a 2022 review and is actively engaging with payers, which safeguards near-term revenue and opens opportunities for future coverage improvements.
- Regulatory and reimbursement uncertainty: There is ongoing uncertainty around the noncoverage of the DecisionDx-SCC test by MolDX, with questions remaining on the timeline for reconsideration and final coverage decisions, which could delay revenue recognition from this product.
- Dependence on coverage decisions impacting revenue guidance: The earnings call Q&A revealed that the company’s guidance excludes SCC coverage in Q4, indicating that if coverage decisions (e.g., from Novitas or Palmetto) are further delayed, it may negatively affect expected revenue growth.
- Lagging commercial payer adoption: Discussions in the Q&A highlighted that achieving positive coverage from commercial payers remains challenging and opaque, which could result in slower adoption despite strong clinical evidence, putting near-term growth under pressure.
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SCC 2025 Coverage
Q: Assume no SCC coverage in 2025?
A: Management confirmed that the test remains covered by Medicare, and for prudence they are excluding SCC revenue from guidance post–October 1, leaving options for reconsideration or CMS appeals if needed. -
Reconsideration Timeline
Q: What is the LCD/appeal timing?
A: They explained that once a new LCD is finalized there’s a 45-day lag for system updates, while the full reconsideration process could extend up to a year or two, reflecting uncertainty in timing. -
Synergy & M&A
Q: How do test synergies affect growth and M&A?
A: Management highlighted robust cash balances and strong synergy between SCC and melanoma tests, supporting ongoing organic growth and reducing near‐term reliance on M&A. -
MolDX Response
Q: How will you address MolDX noncoverage?
A: They noted that despite the noncoverage decision, they remain covered by Medicare and intend to engage with Palmetto to emphasize the test’s unique clinical benefits. -
ART Studies
Q: Any further ART studies planned?
A: Management is actively planning additional studies to replicate and confirm the adjuvant radiation therapy benefits of the SCC test later this year. -
EBITDA Outlook
Q: What about ongoing EBITDA growth?
A: While acknowledging a strong EBITDA beat this quarter, management expects the continued leverage of revenues over expenses to maintain healthy margins, though specifics were not detailed. -
SCC Guidance Detail
Q: How’s the SCC test reflected in guidance?
A: They clarified that the uplift from DecisionDx-SCC is fully anticipated to impact the fourth quarter figures. -
Guide Raise & ASPs
Q: Does SCC inclusion affect ASPs or raise guidance?
A: Management stated that the updated guidance excludes SCC contributions in Q4 and that no changes to ASP are expected. -
TissueCypher Growth
Q: What’s driving TissueCypher’s growth?
A: An expanded sales team and recent training initiatives are fueling TissueCypher’s momentum, with sequential gains expected by early to mid–Q4. -
AGA Guidelines Timing
Q: When for the AGA update?
A: They expect the forthcoming Barrett’s esophagus guidelines to arrive in about a couple of quarters, with ongoing efforts to ensure stakeholder awareness. -
Novitas Engagement
Q: Updates on Novitas interactions?
A: Management mentioned limited engagement with Novitas so far, noting that the timeline remains unpredictable due to the opaque nature of CMS updates. -
Commercial Coverage Approach
Q: How are commercial payers being addressed?
A: They described a conventional process where commercial payer decisions, often managed through lab benefit managers, naturally lag behind the accumulation of clinical evidence. -
Marketing Strategy Shift
Q: Any shift in marketing focus for growth?
A: There is consideration to reallocate some SCC marketing spend toward boosting melanoma test penetration, though the current field force is viewed as appropriately sized. -
IDgenetix Profile
Q: Who is adopting IDgenetix tests?
A: The test is resonating with psychiatrists, primary care physicians, and long-term care providers managing complex medication interactions. -
Revenue Risk from Novitas Review
Q: Is there retrospective revenue risk?
A: Management reassured investors that since Novitas reviewed and confirmed coverage back in early 2022, there is no expected clawback risk to SCC revenue.
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