Constellium - Q1 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, welcome to the Constellium First Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. My name is Alex, and I'll be coordinating the call today. If you'd like to ask a question at the end of the presentation, you can press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, you may press star followed by two. I'll now hand over to your host, Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jason Hershiser (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Alex. I would like to welcome everyone to our first quarter 2023 earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Marc Germain, and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Guo. After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at constellium.com, and today's call is being recorded. Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings. Today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events and expectations, and may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 20-F. All information in this presentation is as of the date of the presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. Today's presentation includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation, which supplement our IFRS disclosures. I would now like to hand the call over to Jean-Marc.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Constellium. Let's begin on slide five and discuss the highlights from our first quarter results. I would like to start with safety, our number one priority. We delivered best-in-class safety performance in the first quarter with a Recordable Case Rate of 1.6 accidents per million hours worked. In the first quarter, we had several sites achieve safety milestones with anniversaries for a number of years, up to eight without a Recordable Case. I want to congratulate all of our employees on this excellent performance. The safety journey is never complete and we all need to remain focused on this critical priority. While our performance in the quarter was excellent, we are always focused on maintaining and improving our safety performance, and we still have accidents happen.

Turning to our financial results, shipments were 389,000 tons, down 3% compared to the first quarter of 2022, mainly due to lower shipments in P&ARP. Revenue of EUR 2 billion decreased 1% compared to last year, as improved price and mix was more than offset by lower metal prices. Remember, while our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a passthrough business model, which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk. Our value-added revenue, which reflects our sales excluding the cost of metal, was EUR 754 million, up 16% compared to the same period last year. Our net income of EUR 22 million in the quarter compares to EUR 179 million in the first quarter of 2022.

As you can see in the bridge on the top right, Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 166 million, slightly below the first quarter of 2022. A&T Adjusted EBITDA is a new quarterly record and increased EUR 20 million compared to last year, while AS&I Adjusted EBITDA is a new first quarter record and increased EUR 6 million versus last year. P&ARP Adjusted EBITDA decreased EUR 27 million in the quarter. Looking across our end markets, aerospace demand was very strong, with shipments up over 50% compared to last year. Automotive shipments in both rolled and extruded products were up double digits in the quarter versus last year. Packaging shipments were down in the quarter due to inventory adjustments across the supply chain and lower end demand. We continue to face significant inflationary pressures which Jack will discuss in more detail.

Thanks to our pricing power, contractual protections, improved mix, and solid execution by our team, we are managing the current environment quite well. Moving now to Free Cash Flow. Our Free Cash Flow in the quarter was negative EUR 34 million, which was in line with our expectations. We continue to expect to generate positive Free Cash Flow this year of greater than EUR 125 million. We remain committed to generating positive Free Cash Flows and deleveraging. As you can see on the bottom right of the slide, our leverage at the end of the first quarter was 2.8x or down 0.4x from the end of the first quarter last year. Overall, I am very proud of our first quarter performance.

Looking forward, while there are uncertainties on the macroeconomic and geopolitical fronts, we like our end market positioning, and we are optimistic about our prospects for the remainder of this year and beyond. Based on our current performance and our current outlook, we are raising our guidance and expect Adjusted EBITDA in the range of EUR 650 million-EUR 680 million and Free Cash Flow in excess of EUR 125 million in 2023. We also remain confident in our ability to deliver on our long-term target of Adjusted EBITDA over EUR 800 million in 2025. With that, I will now hand the call over to Jack for further details on our financial performance.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Thank you, Jean-Marc, and thank you everyone for joining the call today. Please turn now to slide 7. Value-added revenue or VAR was EUR 754 million in the first quarter, up 16% compared to the same quarter last year. Looking at the first quarter, EUR 157 million of this increase was due to improved price and mix in each of our segments. Volume was a headwind of EUR 20 million due to lower shipments in P&ARP. Finally, metal impacts were a headwind of EUR 40 million due to inflation on input costs such as hardeners and alloying elements, as well as weaker scrap performance in the quarter compared to the same period last year. The balance of the change was due to a favorable FX translation tied to a stronger US dollar. There are two important takeaways from the slide.

We grew our value-added revenue by 16% compared to last year. Second, we continue to have pricing power. Price and mix, and price specifically, is the biggest increment of our year-over-year variance and helped us offset inflationary pressures. Turn to slide 8 and let's focus on P&ARP segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 55 million decreased 33% compared to the first quarter of 2022. Volume was a headwind of EUR 11 million with higher shipments in automotive more than offset by lower shipments in packaging and specialty raw products. Automotive shipments increased 19% in the quarter versus last year as new platforms continue to ramp up and demand generally appears stronger. Packaging shipments decreased 11% in the quarter versus last year due to inventory adjustments across the supply chain in both North America and Europe and lower demand.

Price and mix was a tailwind of EUR 47 million, primarily on improved contract pricing, including inflation-related pass-throughs. Costs were a headwind of EUR 64 million as a result of higher operating costs due to inflation, operating challenges at Muscle Shoals, and unfavorable metal costs. As we discussed last quarter, our Muscle Shoals team is highly dedicated, and we're working hard to recruit and train new hires, but this will take some time. FX translation, which is non-cash, was a tailwind of EUR 1 million in the quarter due to a stronger US dollar. Now turn to slide 9, and let's focus on the A&T segment. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 73 million increased 37% compared to the first quarter of 2022. Volume was a tailwind of EUR 9 million with higher aerospace shipments more than offsetting lower TID shipments.

Aerospace shipments were up over 50% versus last year as the recovery in aerospace markets continues. Shipments in TID were down 15% versus last year, reflecting a slowdown in certain industrial markets, partially offset by strong demand in other markets like defense. Price and mix was a tailwind of EUR 57 million on improved contract pricing, including inflation-related, related pass-throughs and a stronger mix with more aerospace. Costs were a headwind of EUR 48 million as a result of higher operating costs due to inflation and production increases. FX translation, other, was a tailwind of EUR 2 million in the quarter due to a stronger US dollar. Now let's turn to slide 10 and focus on the AS&I segment. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 43 million increased 17% compared to the first quarter of 2022.

Volume was a EUR 1 million tailwind with higher shipments in automotive more than offsetting lower industry shipments. Automotive shipments increased 13% in the quarter versus last year as we continue to experience improving activity levels. Industry shipments were down 5% in the quarter versus last year. Price and mix was a EUR 23 million tailwind, primarily due to improved contract pricing, including inflation-related pass-throughs. Costs were a headwind of EUR 18 million on higher operating costs, mainly due to inflation. Now turn to slide 11, where I want to give an update on the current inflationary environment we're facing and our focus on pricing and cost control to offset these pressures. In the 1st quarter, and as expected, we experienced broad-based and significant inflationary pressures across our business.

As you know, we operate a pass-through business model, so we're not materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input. That said, other metal and alloy supply remains tight today, and while we're confident about the security of supply, some of it does come at a higher cost. In addition, labor and other non-metal costs will also be higher this year, particularly European energy. As previously noted, we purchase energy on a multi-year rolling forward basis, which has helped us to mitigate some of the energy cost pressures and helped us to smooth out some of the steep increases in costs. As of today, our 2023 energy costs are largely secured, but at higher average prices. Both electricity and gas forward energy prices in Europe have come down from their 2022 peaks, but still remain well above historical averages.

Given these cost pressures, we continue to work across a number of fronts to mitigate their impact on results. We have demonstrated strong cost performance in the past years and will continue our relentless focus in 2023, including continued execution on our previously announced Drive25 initiative. Across the company, we're working to increase our efficiency, reduce our consumption of expensive inputs, and lower our fixed costs. As we previously noted, many of our existing contracts have inflationary protections such as PPI inflation or surcharge mechanisms, and where they do not, we're working with our customers to include them. Where we're signing new contracts, they're coming with better pricing and a range of inflationary protections. We have made very good progress across all of our end markets.

As you can see in the bridge on the right, in the first quarter of this year, we were very successful with price and mix, the largest increment being price in offsetting inflationary pressures. As we mentioned last quarter, we expect inflationary cost pressure to run close to EUR 300 million in 2023. We continue to believe that we will be able to offset most of this cost pressure in 2023 and the resting future periods with a combination of the tools we noted and our relentless focus on cost control. The net impact of inflation and other cost increases and the actions we're taking to offset them are including our guidance for 2023. Now let's turn to slide 12 and discuss our Free Cash Flow.

Our Free Cash Flow was negative EUR 34 million in the first quarter, which was in line with our expectations. The result in the quarter reflects strong Adjusted EBITDA, offset mainly by higher capital expenditures and increased working capital. Looking at 2023, we continue to expect to generate Free Cash Flow in excess of EUR 125 million for the full year, which we expect to be weighted more towards the second half. As we noted last quarter, we expect working capital to be a use of cash in the first half of the year and a source of cash in the second half, based on our current forecast, roughly neutral for the full year. We expect CapEx, cash interest, and cash taxes in line with our previous guidance. Let's turn to slide 13 and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity position.

At the end of the first quarter, our net debt of EUR 1.9 billion increased slightly compared to the end of 2022, given the Free Cash Flow in the quarter. Our leverage remained at 2.8x at the end of the first quarter. We're down 0.4x versus the end of the first quarter of 2022. We remain committed to achieving our leverage target of 2.5x and maintaining our long-term target leverage range of 1.5x-2.5x. As you can see in our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2026, and our liquidity remains strong at EUR 688 million as of the end of the first quarter. We're very proud of the progress we have made on our capital structure and of the financial flexibility we're building.

I will now hand the call back to Jean Marc.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you, Jack. Let's turn to slide 15 and discuss our current end market outlook, starting with packaging. In packaging, the inventory adjustments continued across the supply chain in both North America and Europe. We are starting to see some signs of demand weakness in both regions as a result of the current inflationary environment, a lack of promotional activity, and following a multi-year period of rapid growth during COVID. We are confident in the long-term outlook for this end market, though, given can maker capacity additions in both regions, recent announcements of greenfield investments here in North America, and a growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage can. Longer term, we expect packaging markets to grow low to mid single digits in both North America and Europe. We will participate in this growth in both regions, as announced at our Analyst Day last year.

As Jack noted, the company is highly focused on stabilizing the operating challenges we have been experiencing at Muscle Shoals, so that we can take advantage of these end market dynamics in North America. We are encouraged by the improved performance we have seen recently at Muscle Shoals and remain very confident in our ability to restore the plant's profitability and performance over the course of 2023. Turning now to automotive. OEM sales and production numbers globally are still at a low base compared to pre-COVID levels, with uncertainty continuing in the order books. We remain very positive on this market and increased demand in P&ARP and AS&I gives us reason for optimism. Automotive inventories are low, consumer demand remains high, and vehicle electrification and sustainability trends will continue to drive demand for light weighting and use of aluminum products. Let's turn now to aerospace.

The recovery in aerospace continued in the quarter, with shipments up over 50% versus last year, though still below pre-COVID levels. Major OEMs have announced build rate increases in the short term and the desire for further increases in the medium term. We remain confident that the long-term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remain intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. In addition, demand is strong in the business and regional jet markets and the defense and space markets. As the chart on the left side of the page highlights, these three core end markets represent 76% of our last twelve months revenue. We like the fundamentals in each, and as I have said in the past, we like our hand and the options it affords us. Turning lastly to other specialties.

While we do see some weakness in segments like general engineering plate and building and construction, demand remains solid in many of our specialties end markets. Demand has been more resilient in North America than in Europe. In general, these other markets are dependent upon the health of the industrial economies in each region. In TID rolled products, demand remains strong in markets like defense and in transportation in North America. In industry extrusions, demand is still strong in sectors like solar and rail. It is also of note that many of the sustainability trends supporting growth in our core markets are very much at play here in other specialties as well. In summary, we continue to like the prospects for the end markets we serve, and we strongly believe that the diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company.

Let's turn to slide 16, where I want to highlight several favorable market trends that we see as tremendous opportunities for our future. As you can see in the table on the left part of the slide, the majority of our portfolio today is serving end markets currently benefiting from durable, sustainability-driven, secular growth. The important takeaway here is that aluminum is a catalyst behind this secular growth, given its sustainable attributes. Aluminum is infinitely recyclable and does not lose its properties when recycled. As a result, aluminum will play a critical role in the circular economy and will be a driver of growth in light-weighting, electrification, and sustainable packaging. As we mentioned before, we are continuing to invest in and grow our recycling capabilities. The recycling center we are building at Neuf-Brisach is well underway, with start-up and ramp-up on track for 2025.

We also believe the current regulatory environment further supports the long-term growth of our products. For example, legislation in both Europe and North America currently supports the increased adoption of electric vehicles and the increased focus on recycling. In packaging, consumers and brand owners today consider aluminum cans as the beverage container of choice. The aluminum can is more recyclable than both plastic and glass and can be recycled at a profit. It provides a superior marketing tool using the can as a billboard. It is lightweight, it is easier to transport and store, and it provides better shelf utilization in the stores. aluminum cans are also recession resilient. Even in today's environment, where we have seen inventory corrections across packaging supply chains and some signs of demand weakness as a result of inflation, aluminum cans continue to outperform other substrates like plastic and glass.

Light-weighting creates significant opportunities across multiple end markets. In automotive, light-weighting is critical to reducing emissions in vehicles with internal combustion engines and also to extend the range for battery electric vehicles. Aluminum is continuing to gain share in automotive as a result, and Constellium is uniquely positioned with greater exposure to premium vehicles, light trucks, and SUVs, all of which tend to have the highest amount of aluminum content, as well as opportunities in both rolled and extrusion-based solutions. Electrification accelerates the growth opportunities for aluminum in automotive. On average, battery electric vehicles use two to three times more aluminum sheets and extrusions than their traditional internal combustion engine counterparts. More and more of the fleet is going electric in both North America and Europe, which is supported by legislation and customer incentives.

Constellium is well-positioned today with our diverse and balanced portfolio to capture the secular growth fueled by sustainability. Turning now to slide 17, we detail our key messages and financial guidance. Constellium delivered strong performance in the first quarter. I'm very proud of our entire team as we achieved solid operational performance and strong cost control despite a number of challenges, including significant inflationary pressures. Looking forward, 2023 will be another challenging year given the extraordinary inflationary pressures we are facing, particularly on European energy costs. As Jack noted, we are currently expecting comparable inflationary pressures in 2023 to those we experienced in 2022, but we remain confident in our ability to pass through most of these costs in 2023 and the rest in future periods.

Based on our current outlook, we are raising our guidance for 2023 and now expect Adjusted EBITDA in the range of EUR 650 million-EUR 680 million and Free Cash Flow in excess of EUR 125 million. I also want to reiterate our long-term guidance of Adjusted EBITDA in excess of EUR 800 million by 2025 and our target leverage range of 1.5x-2.5x. Let me add, this guidance is based on our current energy positions, including higher forward energy prices as of today. As inflationary pressures subside, we believe we will emerge an even stronger company. Our business model provides a strong foundation for long-term success, and we believe we have substantial opportunities to grow our business and enhance profitability and returns.

We have a diversified portfolio, and our end market positioning will enable us to take advantage of sustainability-driven, secular growth trends such as consumer preference for infinitely recyclable aluminum cans, light-weighting in transportation, the electrification of the automotive fleet, and the increased focus on recycling. The Constellium team has demonstrated its resilience and ability to execute across a range of different market conditions, and I am confident we'll continue to do so. We remain focused on executing our strategy, driving operational performance, generating Free Cash Flow, achieving our ESG objective and shareholder value creation. In conclusion, I remain very optimistic about our future. With that, Alex, we'll now open the Q&A session, please.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, you can press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, you may press star followed by two. Please ensure you're unmuted locally when asking your question. Our first question for today comes from Emily Chieng from Goldman Sachs. Emily, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Emily Chieng (VP, Equity Research, North America Metals and Mining)

Good morning, Jean-Marc and Jack. Thank you for the update today. I wanted to start with the packaging markets there. I know you talked a little bit about the destocking cycle. I think last quarter you also mentioned you were still confident in meeting, you know, internal volume targets for packaging this year, given the contractual thresholds you have in place. Is there any risk to that view at this point? For your customers specifically and what you're seeing there, where does Constellium stand in the destocking cycle?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Good morning, Emily. Thanks for the question. On packaging, we remain confident in our ability to achieve our internal targets. They are towards the low end of the variance that is allowed within our contractual arrangements with customers, because we are seeing not only destocking, but as I mentioned, some weakness in end demand. I think that's due to two factors. One is, you know, inflation clearly squeezes disposable income for consumers, but more importantly, there's, you know, there's been no promotional activity of late and this for cans, beverages in general. You see that in the results of the beverage companies where, you know, pricing is very strong for them, but volume is weaker.

I think we're in a place where we believe the market will be still growing over the medium term. This year is a little bit of a challenge and will be towards the lower end of our expectations volume-wise.

Emily Chieng (VP, Equity Research, North America Metals and Mining)

Understood. Maybe a second question, just shifting gears a little to the Muscle Shoals asset there, I know you mentioned there was some labor inefficiencies that were driving the weakness, but were there any other operational issues or will we just expect over time as labor inefficiencies pass, that that asset should see better profitability?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yes, we expect to be recovered by the end of the year. As I mentioned on, you know, a few of our earnings calls, I guess since the fall. It takes time to recruit and train people. We are making progress. We have less open positions. We are spending a lot on maintenance of the assets as well, so that's a headwind in our cost variance when you look at the past performance versus last year, this quarter versus last year. I think we're setting the foundation for a return to solid operating performance and financial performance by the end of the year.

The encouraging signs that we're seeing is that, you know, when we look at our indicators, you know, there's more and more green lights on the dashboard in terms of performance of the plant. That allows us, for instance, even though can sheet is weak, as we mentioned, to take plenty of opportunities in automotive. That's one of the beauties of our diversified model where, you know, we can, you know, if one market is not doing so well, well there's other opportunities in other markets that we're seizing. I'm quite encouraged by what I'm seeing. Truly, typically operational performance improves before financial performance improves. I think by the end of the year, we'll be in a very good place.

Emily Chieng (VP, Equity Research, North America Metals and Mining)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Curt Woodworth of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Curt Woodworth (Mining Analyst)

Great. Thanks. Good morning, Jean-Marc and Jack. First question is around, hi, I guess just around changes to the guidance. It seems like from a cost perspective, you still are seeing EUR 300 million target. You did raise the guidance. I'm just kinda curious maybe what has changed from the update you gave towards the end of last year, where you were looking for more meaningful decline. With respect to price cost, you know, it does seem like you're getting very strong price mix this quarter, EUR 157. That's a pretty strong run rate. It seems like you intimated that you still would be negative price cost this year.

I'm just wondering if you could also give us any color on what you think net price is embedded in the guidance.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. Thank you, Curt. Let me start with your first question. I'll give you a little bit of color here. I think, you know, as we kind of finished Q1, it really, it was a little better than kind of what we had expected, you know, just given the favorable trends in aerospace and automotive, as well as, you know, some of the sub-segments within the industrial markets. We do expect, you know, some of that to continue into the second quarter. Aerospace and automotive should continue to perform. You know, the lower can stock demand, you know, will likely could also last into this quarter.

Jack Guo (CFO)

You know, the visibility for some of the other markets are not kind of where we're used to seeing. Remember, you also have the continued cost pressure from inflation as well as from ramp-up of activities given the strength in our aerospace and automotive businesses. That's why we're, you know, fundamentally not really changing our existing views and outlooks for, you know, the second half of the year, and that kind of explains the guidance. Then on to your second question. I think, you know, on the cost side, you know, we did call out, you know, we should expect to see high levels of inflation, about EUR 300 million.

You know, we're kinda 1 quarter into that, but we're confident in our ability, to, you know, pass through, you know, some of the costs, as well as with the pricing power that we have.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

If I step back, Curt, I think, you know, when we were Late last year, we were thinking, you know, we've got these big wave of inflationary pressures, are we going to be quick enough to pass that through? 'Cause there's no question in our mind that we can pass it through, but the pace at which we can pass it through has a very significant impact on 2023 outcome. We were, you know, prudent, I think, in our assessment of what kind of job we can do in passing it through. What we see nearly six months after, you know, seeing that big wave is that the teams have done an excellent job at, you know, negotiating with customers.

Our customers have been supportive, and, we're in a much better place than we thought we would be, you know, six months ago or three months ago. That's why we're, you know, we see less of a pinch.

Curt Woodworth (Mining Analyst)

Okay. One follow-up on packaging, for me as well. At the Analyst Day, you talked about, I think, 200,000 tons of incremental can sheet by 25, and also noted that duration of these contracts were being extending up to, I think, 4-5 years. Can you comment on, how much of that have you contracted at this point in time? Because obviously, you know, the beverage can side, there have been some pushouts of making capacity. The CapEx around that, do you still feel comfortable in that, I think, EUR 175-200 number you quoted? Thank you, guys.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yep. Yes. We did communicate last year at the Analyst Day 200,000 tons of additional volumes in can sheet. That's a 2026 number because it's a run rate in 2025, but that's been because of the ramp-up. We are 80%-90% contracted on those. As you know, there is some, you know, variance within the contractual commitment, so it can come in, you know, a little bit lower, but not meaningfully lower if, you know, weakness persists. We feel very comfortable about this market, the capital deployment plans we have. Remember that these products use the same lines as the automotive line. You can always see the finishing lines after the for automotive.

We have versatility in terms and optionality in terms of where we decide to use that capacity. We feel very good about the outlook, we're essentially, you know, close to 90% contracted.

Curt Woodworth (Mining Analyst)

Great. Thanks very much.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Just a few follow-ups. On with regard to the percentage of your tonnage that you think you can pass through, cost pressures on. I think in the past you've talked about 90%-95% of costs you could pass through in a given year, and I know you alluded to some spillage into further time periods. Is that 90%-95% still a good frame of reference?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah, I think it's directional, but it's good. As you can see on the variance chart, you see that, you know, we're, you know, referring to page 11 of the presentation. You see a price and mix variance of EUR 138. There's an element of mix in there, so it's not all price. You see a cost variance of EUR 130. In the EUR 130, it's not inflation only, right? There's other factors like, for instance, we're bringing in more people in aerospace and transportation because of the, you know, booming demand. We are spending more on maintenance in our facilities to make sure we're ready for the future.

Overall that's, yeah, I think the numbers show our ability to pass through most of the inflation as it happens and the rest of it in the following period.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. I know you addressed the can sheet expansion with Curt, but I just thought it'd be helpful to go back to again the Investor Day and some of the other broad growth initiatives you talked about. Can you give us an update across the board with some of those initiatives that you had laid out for us?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Sure. The, those initiatives are really the foundation for the over EUR 800 million EBITDA guidance we give for 2025. If I look at, you know, the different elements there, maybe by market. We talked about can sheet. In 2025, you know, it's roughly 140,000 tons that would be for the year, right? For the year 2025, that would be available. I think most of that, as I mentioned, is I mean, 90% is contracted essentially. There may be a little bit of variance depending on how the markets go, but that's something we feel very good about. That's why we're spending a lot of money on the maintenance and CapEx to get ready for that, so we feel good about it.

I think we're a little bit behind, given the current market situation, overall because of the weakness in cans. I think the silver lining here is there's two things. One is you look at the other beverages, you know, packaging, materials, they are down much more than cans are. That shows that for the brands and the consumers, the cans are preferred. The other aspect of, the other silver lining is with the increased focus on recycling, we know that aluminum pays for its recycling whilst plastic and glass don't. What that means is, as there is more and more legislation or push to recycle more, not only will we have more used beverage cans to recycle, but also there will be more need for cans because they are a preferred package, and they cost less to recycle than the other packages.

I think the fundamentals here are very strong, and it's gonna have a very long tail well beyond the 2025 horizon. We feel very good for can sheets, you know, there, even though we're a little bit behind now. I think we'll meet our targets in 2025, and I think there's more to come after that. The other big initiative we have is a recycling center. It's going, you know, on budget, on time. We're very excited about it. I was visiting it just a couple of months ago. It's amazing how quickly it's moving now that we've started to be above ground. The construction is above ground, so that's very exciting. We'll start it up at the end of 2024 and ramp it up very quickly.

I think, you know, with the again, more recycling being mandated in Europe, that's gonna be a tremendously attractive opportunity for us, and it's likely to be better than what we thought in terms of financial returns when we announced it. I think we're gonna end up ahead of that. If I look at the other markets, in automotive, we see a continued demand, and the recent announcements by the Biden administration mean essentially turbocharging the growth of electric vehicles, which has an accelerating effect on the adoption of aluminum, so that's good for us. When I look at the aerospace market, we've got very good positions with Airbus and Boeing and about every OEM in the market.

We're seeing, you know, a strong pool that's gonna continue for the next few years. I think in aerospace, as you're seeing, we're ahead. We're winning numerous best supplier awards from these plane makers. This is Constellium market share gains. We think we're in a very good place, and that's why we feel so comfortable about our 2025 guidance. I don't know, Timna, if I answered your question in my long answer, but.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

I just wanted an update, so that's great. Thank you very much.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Corinne Blanchard of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Corinne Blanchard (Director, Lithium, Solar and Clean Tech Equity Analyst)

Hey, good morning, Jean-Marc and team. I just want to go back on the packaging and the trend that you're seeing. We normally see higher seasonality in 2Q and 3Q. Would you expect that to be relatively muted this year, or do you still expect to have a little bit seasonality coming through?

Jack Guo (CFO)

I'm not sure I heard the question, Corinne, exactly. Yeah, I mean, typically, you have the strong first half in the can stock, given the seasonality of the business. Now we do this year have this lower demand factor and the stocking phenomenon that's happening, right? That's continuing. We're seeing it to continue into Q2, so that's gonna have a little bit of impact on volume. We're hopeful, you know, that's gonna come back in the second half.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

I think what's gonna drive it really, which is unknown still, is whether the beverage companies will run promotions or not. You know, I was at my local store the other day, and what I used to get for $6, I'm paying $9 for it now. That's a change. If there are promotions, I think that's gonna spur some more demand. If there are not, I think we'll be in a much more muted environment from a seasonality standpoint than what we're used to seeing.

Corinne Blanchard (Director, Lithium, Solar and Clean Tech Equity Analyst)

Make sense. Then maybe a follow-up on competition or, you know, I think Steel Dynamics has been announcing, you know, further expansion or like capacity coming sooner than maybe the market was expected. Can you comment, like do you see any risk for you in which segments maybe?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. I don't know the specifics of what you're mentioning, the announcement you're mentioning about Steel Dynamics. In our supply-demand projections, we believe we need, as North America, as an industry, more capacity. That capacity is need to, you know, because of the growth we see in both can and automotive and the very substantial share of imports, which we do not believe are competitive or provide the good service levels that our can makers customers need. We believe that capacity is needed. Now, if it comes sooner than when it is exactly needed, that could be a problem. As I mentioned, we're more than 90% contracted through 2025. We're, we feel we're in a very good place.

We've got contracts that run through 2028, so we feel like we're in a very good place.

Corinne Blanchard (Director, Lithium, Solar and Clean Tech Equity Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, you can press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Josh Sullivan of The Benchmark Company. Josh, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Josh Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Good morning, Josh.

Josh Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Just as far as the record aerospace demand, you know, is that broad-based across airframers and customers? Is there any particular platform driving the near-term results? You know, we've seen some other material suppliers talk about inventory stocking for the A350. You know, does that mean your aluminum lithium products might be accelerating faster than other products?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Josh, we still see narrow body as a key driver for growth. A350 may come back with, you know, may increase the build rates. It's not a substantial driver just yet. We're seeing it's really broad based, much more demand. I remind you that, you know, when we went through COVID, our shipments, our production went down by 50% when the build rates went down by only 30%. There is an element of restocking that needs to happen. It is very difficult to know how long it's gonna take to restock. I think what we're seeing through the supply chain is everybody being worried about, you know, am I going to run out of product? This is, you know, really accelerating the growth that is needed.

At the same time, we are still shipping below what is needed to meet the build rates that are announced by the OEMs. We feel like there is a long, you know, path of opportunity for us for, you know, 2024, 2025.

Josh Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Just one on the automotive side. You know, in 2022, there were a number of plant shutdowns due to various supply chain issues. How should we think of, you know, the recent automotive strength for Constellium, just relative to restarting some of that production and inventory catch-up versus the organic growth relative to kinda full year SAR expectations?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. I think the full year SAR expectations are up, you know, both North America and Europe, kind of, 7%.

Josh Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, 6%, 7%.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

6%, 7%, and we're growing double digits. The gap here is a result of a number of factors, but one which is important is further penetration of aluminum. That's, you know, something that we see continuing to come into play. So we feel pretty good about our ability to maximize the use of our automotive assets. We are not fully sold out just yet, so we think there's some nice upside going into next year as well.

Josh Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

All right. Thank you for the time.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sean Wondrack of Constellium. Sean, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Sean Wondrack (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, Jean-Marc and Jack. Thank you for taking my question.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Hey, Sean. We know you're still at DB, by the way.

Sean Wondrack (Equity Research Analyst)

That's correct. Just, you know, looking today, it's great to see that you increased the guidance. What has sort of changed versus your prior outlook that you gave us?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. I think the our beat in the first quarter clearly helps us be more comfortable about, you know, our ability to pass through the price increases. For as Jack mentioned earlier, for the nine months to go, we are not really changing our guidance, right? We feel like there's still enough uncertainties around the geopolitical environment. The order books in some of our segments tend to be short. Whilst we see a lot of strength in auto and aero, for instance, and there's still this uncertainty around packaging. Are we going to have promotions or not in the summer? We feel very good about our increased guidance, but we are not calling it yet a real upside to the next nine months.

Sean Wondrack (Equity Research Analyst)

Right.

Yeah. I agree with that.

Do you think the fact that the packaging guys might be seeing some easing inflationary trends might be increasing their willingness to lower prices a little?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Possibly. Yeah. I hope so.

Sean Wondrack (Equity Research Analyst)

All right. just

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

That would be an upside.

Sean Wondrack (Equity Research Analyst)

Across some of the other cost buckets.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Oh, sorry. I was saying.

Sean Wondrack (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

That would be an upside if it happened.

Sean Wondrack (Equity Research Analyst)

Right. That makes sense. Then have you seen inflation easing in any of your other cost buckets? I know you've mentioned labor has been up, but just within maybe freight or any other areas.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Yeah. No, it's, I mean, on the energy side in Europe, you know, if you look at the spot prices, it did kinda come down a little bit, but that's really still well above historical averages. I think, you know, inflation, it's a big category, and it's really broad based, right? We're still seeing, you know, tremendous pressure on, you know, other buckets like labor, alloy, you know, coatings, et cetera.

Sean Wondrack (Equity Research Analyst)

Right. Okay, thank you. It's great to see that you've kept your Free Cash Flow outlook. What are your plans to sort of allocate that Free Cash Flow going forward?

Jack Guo (CFO)

Yeah.

Sean Wondrack (Equity Research Analyst)

Are you just gonna build cash, or do you think you would apply it? Sorry.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Well, I mean, this goes into the capital allocation priorities a little bit, right? I think, for us, you know, nothing has changed. Our priority is still to, you know, take our leverage down to, you know, 2.5, less than 2.5x, and that's, that remains the priority. You know, we were spending more on CapEx to, you know, generate returns, additional returns for our shareholders. Deleveraging remains the priority. You know, and we mentioned in the past that deleveraging comes in a couple of different ways. One is from earnings growth and, secondly, from debt pay down. That gives you a flavor.

Sean Wondrack (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Thank you very much for taking my question.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Katja Jancic from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Katja Jancic (Metals and Mining Analyst)

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Just quickly on the A&T segment, you, EBITDA per ton, it was very strong this quarter. I think last quarter you mentioned margins in that business should be somewhere between EUR 800-900 per ton. How should we think about margins going forward or over the next few quarters?

Jack Guo (CFO)

Yep. You know, obviously A&T had a stellar performance this quarter and continue to have stellar performance, and we're very proud of the achievements. I think, you know, first quarter margin really reflects continued pull from customers. You know, more aerospace as part of the portfolio, you know, Aero and TID, but also more favorable, you know, aerospace mix within Aero, if that makes sense. The TID, you know, business is also holding up pretty strong. I think remember, you know, the business, Katja, remember the business flexed quite a bit in terms of cost during COVID in the down cycle. And not all of that has, you know, kind of fully caught up in an up cycling environment like the one we're in today.

You know, obviously that benefits, that's beneficial for margins. You know, we saw some of that in the fourth quarter of last year. It was actually throughout last year, and it's continuing into this year. Over time, we do expect, you know, cost to catch up. Margin, you know, for this business unit, in an up cycling environment should still, you know, stay very strong.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

In other words, the EUR 800-900, Katja, is kind of an average across cycles for the Aerospace and Transportation Division. In a very strong aerospace market going up, we'll be above that range, and I think that's what we're seeing now. We would expect for this year, you know, to be above the EUR 800-900 average, you know, through the cycle.

Katja Jancic (Metals and Mining Analyst)

Okay. Thank you so much.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you again.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We have no further questions, so I'll hand back to Jean-Marc Germain for any further remarks.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Well, thank you, Alex, and thank you everybody for participating today. We're delighted with our performance in the first quarter. I think it poses a good foundation for a strong and better than expected, 2023. Thank you, everybody, and stay safe. Goodbye.

Operator (participant)

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your line.