Constellium - Q1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Constellium First Quarter 2024 Results Call. All lines have been placed on mute during the presentation portion of the call, with an opportunity for question and answer at the end. If you'd like to ask a question, please press Star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to turn this conference call over to our host, Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jason Hershiser (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Candace. I would like to welcome everyone to our first quarter 2024 earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Marc Germain, and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Guo. After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at constellium.com. Today's call is being recorded. Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings. Today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events, and expectations, and may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 20-F. All information in this presentation is as of the date of the presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition, today's presentation includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached to today's slide presentation, which supplement our IFRS disclosures. Before turning the call over to Jean-Marc, I wanted to remind everyone that beginning this quarter, we have revised the definition of Adjusted EBITDA at the consolidated level based on discussions with the SEC.

The new definition will no longer exclude the non-cash impact of metal price lag. We will continue to provide investors and other stakeholders with the non-cash metal price lag impact as it is necessary to get a true assessment of the economic performance of the business. Our segment Adjusted EBITDA will continue to exclude the impact, and we will continue to provide guidance for Adjusted EBITDA that excludes the impact. With that, I would now like to hand the call over to Jean-Marc.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Constellium. Let's begin on slide five and discuss the highlights from our first quarter results. I would like to start with safety, our number one priority. While we delivered strong safety performance in the first quarter, our recordable case rate of 2.2 per million hours worked is higher than our target performance. This is a humbling reminder that while we always strive to deliver best-in-class safety performance, we all need to constantly maintain our focus on safety to achieve the ambitious targets we have set. It is a never-ending task for our company and one we take very seriously.

Turning to our financial results, shipments were 380,000 tons, down 2% compared to the first quarter of 2023, mainly due to lower shipments in AS&I, partially offset by higher shipments in PARP. The lower shipments in AS&I were largely a result of the German extrusion business we sold last year. Revenue of EUR 1.7 billion decreased 12% compared to last year, primarily due to lower metal prices and lower shipments. Remember, while our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a pass-through business model, which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk. Our net income of EUR 17 million in the quarter compares to net income of EUR 22 million in the first quarter of last year.

Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 137 million in the quarter, though this includes a negative non-cash impact from metal price lag of EUR 13 million. If you exclude this impact of metal price lag, as Jason mentioned earlier, which you must if you want to have the real economic performance of the business, the adjusted EBITDA reflects EUR 150 million in the quarter, compared to EUR 166 million last year. Looking at segment-adjusted EBITDA, A&T delivered record first quarter performance and was up EUR 7 million compared to last year. P&ARP decreased EUR 12 million in the quarter, and AS&I was down EUR 10 million. As we mentioned on our earnings call back in February, the P&ARP segment was impacted in the quarter as a result of the extreme snow and cold weather event at our Muscle Shoals facility in January.

The weather event caused a full week of closure at the facility and then a difficult ramp back up once employees were able to return to work. Looking across our end markets, aerospace demand continued to grow in the quarter. Packaging shipments were also up in the quarter, including can stock. Automotive demand remained healthy in North America, while softer demand continued in Europe. Demand in most industrial and other specialty markets remained weak in both regions during the quarter. Moving now to free cash flow. Our free cash flow in the quarter was negative EUR 8 million. We continue to expect to generate positive free cash flow this year of greater than EUR 130 million. I am pleased to report that we launched our share repurchase program in March and repurchased 330,000 shares for around $7 billion.

Our leverage at the end of the quarter was 2.5, 2.4x, and remains within our target leverage range. Overall, I am quite happy with our first quarter performance. With that, I will now hand the call over to Jack for further details on our financial performance. Jack?

Jack Guo (CFO)

Thank you, Jean-Marc. And thank you everyone for joining our call today. Please turn now to slide seven, and let's focus on our PARP segment performance. In the first quarter of 2024, PARP generated segment adjusted EBITDA of EUR 43 million, which was down 21% compared to the first quarter of last year. As Jean-Marc mentioned earlier, PARP experienced significant weather-related impacts during the quarter. Despite these impacts, as well as continued operational challenges at Muscle Shoals, PARP volume was a tailwind of EUR 4 million, with higher shipments in packaging and automotive build products. Packaging shipments increased 2% in the quarter versus last year. Within packaging, can stock shipments were up in the quarter versus last year, partially offset by lower shipments of specialty packaging in Europe.

Automotive shipments increased 1% in the quarter, with a healthy demand in North America, mostly offset by softness in Europe. Price and mix was a headwind of EUR 9 million, mainly as a result of weaker mix in the quarter. Costs were a headwind of EUR 7 million as a result of unfavorable metal costs, partially offset by lower operating costs. Now turn to slide eight, and let's focus on the A&T segment. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 80 million increased 10% compared to the first quarter last year, and is a new first quarter record for A&T. Volume was a headwind of EUR 4 million, as higher aerospace shipments were offset by lower TID shipments in the quarter. Aerospace shipments were up 6% versus last year as the recovery in aerospace markets continues.

Shipments in TID were down 8% versus last year, reflecting a slowdown in most industrial markets. Price and mix was a tailwind of EUR 8 million, mainly as a result of mixing the quarter with more aerospace. Costs were a tailwind of EUR 3 million, primarily as a result of lower operating costs. Now turn to slide nine, and let's focus on the AS&I segment. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 33 million decreased 23% compared to the first quarter last year. Volume was a EUR 6 million headwind as a result of lower shipments in automotive and industry extruded products. Automotive shipments were down 9% in the quarter versus last year as a result of softness in Europe and the timing impact between certain program switches.

Industry shipments were down 28% in the quarter versus last year, primarily as a result of the sale of our German extrusion business, while the market conditions across industry extrusions in Europe remained weak. Price and mix was a EUR 10 million headwind, primarily due to a softer pricing environment in industry and weaker mix in the quarter. Costs were a tailwind of EUR 8 million on lower operating costs. FX and other was a headwind of EUR 2 million in the quarter. It is not on the slide here, but I wanted to make some quick comments on Holdings and Corporate. In the first quarter, our Holdings and Corporate expense was EUR 6 million. We continue to expect Holdings and Corporate expense to run at approximately EUR 40 million in 2024, with the increase primarily driven by additional IT spending with the upgrade of our ERP system.

It is also not on the slide here, but I wanted to summarize the current cost environment we're facing. As you know, we operate a pass-through business model, so we're not materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input. Throughout 2022 and most of 2023, we were faced with broad-based and significant inflationary pressures. Although the pressure began to ease in some categories in the fourth quarter last year, labor and other non-metal costs continue to be higher this year. As for energy, our 2024 costs are secured at moderately more favorable levels compared to 2023, although energy prices remain well above historical averages. We remain confident in our ability to offset any future inflationary pressures with top-line actions and our relentless focus on cost control, as we've demonstrated in the past.

Now, let's turn to slide 10 and discuss our free cash flow. Our free cash flow was -EUR 8 million in the first quarter, which was in line with our expectations and better than last year. The year-over-year change is a result of less cash used for working capital and lower capital expenditures, partially offset by lower Adjusted EBITDA. Looking at 2024, we expect to generate free cash flow in excess of EUR 130 million for the full year, which we expect to be weighted more towards the second half. As we noted last quarter, we expect CapEx to be around EUR 370 million this year, which includes higher spending on return-seeking projects, such as our recycling and casting center in the Neuf-Brisach. The facility is expected to start up sometime and on budget in the fourth quarter of this year.

We expect cash interest of approximately EUR 125 million, which includes the impact from higher interest rates. We expect cash taxes of approximately EUR 55 million, and we expect working capital and other to be a modest use of cash for the full year. With the expected free cash flow generation of over EUR 130 million, we intend to use a large portion of the free cash flow this year for our share repurchase program. As Jean-Marc mentioned previously, we launched the share repurchase program in March, and repurchased 330,000 shares for $6.9 million U.S. dollars. We have approximately $293 million U.S. dollars remaining on our existing share repurchase program. Now, let's turn to slide 11 and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity position.

At the end of the first quarter, our net debt of EUR 1.7 billion increased slightly compared to the end of 2023, mainly as a result of unfavorable U.S. dollar translation impact. Our leverage was 2.4x at the end of the quarter, or down 0.4x versus the end of the first quarter of 2023, and within our target leverage range. We remain committed to maintaining our target leverage range of 1.5x-2.5x. As you can see in our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2026, and our liquidity remains strong at EUR 789 million as of the end of the first quarter. I'm also pleased to report that Moody's upgraded our credit rating earlier this month to Ba3 with a stable outlook.

As a reminder, we received an upgrade from S&P in November last year to double B minus with a stable outlook. We're extremely proud of the progress we have made on our capital structure and of the financial flexibility we're building, including the ability to begin returning capital to our shareholders. I will now hand the call back to Jean-Marc.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you, Jack. Let's turn to slide 13 and discuss our current end market outlook. The majority of our portfolio today is serving end markets currently benefiting from durable, sustainability-driven, secular growth, in which aluminum, a light and infinitely recyclable material, plays a critical role. Turning first to packaging. Inventory adjustments in can stock appear behind us in both North America and Europe. Can stock shipments have increased the last few quarters, though demand is still relatively low in the current environment. The long-term outlook for this end market continues to be favorable, as evidenced by the growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage can, capacity growth plans from can makers in both regions, and the greenfield investments ongoing here in North America. We are expecting growth in can stock in 2024.

Longer term, we continue to expect packaging markets to grow low- to mid-single digits in both North America and Europe. I am pleased to report that the recycling and casting center we are building at our Neuf-Brisach facility is well underway and both on time and on budget, as Jack mentioned earlier. The project is still expected to start up in the fourth quarter this year and ramp up quickly in 2025. As I mentioned before, Muscle Shoals was impacted in the quarter by the extreme cold weather. In addition, the plant continues to face some ongoing operational challenges. We are encouraged by the improved performance we have seen there recently, and we expect operations to continue to improve as the year progresses. Turning now to automotive. Automotive OEM sales and production numbers globally have increased the last few years, but remain below pre-COVID levels.

Demand remains healthy in North America today, though the weaker demand in Europe that we experienced in the fourth quarter last year has continued into the first quarter and will likely persist into the second quarter. In both regions, demand for EVs is continuing to grow, albeit at a slower pace than expected in the past. Consumer demand for luxury cars, light trucks, and SUVs remains steady. Vehicle electrification and sustainability trends will continue to drive the demand for lightweighting and use of aluminum products in the long term. As a result, we remain positive on this market longer term. Let's turn now to aerospace. The recovery in aerospace continued in the quarter, though demand in this market also remains below pre-COVID levels. Major aero OEMs remain focused on increasing build rates for both narrow and wide-body aircraft, despite ongoing supply chain issues and recent safety concerns.

Commercial aircraft backlogs are healthy today, and we remain confident that the long-term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remain intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. Demand remains strong in the business and regional jet markets and the defense and the space markets.... In addition, we continue to experience strong demand for our Airware family of products. We're excited about the future opportunities to continue our growth in aerospace and related markets, which I will touch on more in a minute. As the chart on the left side of the page highlights, these three core end markets represent 80% of our last 12 months' revenue. Turning lastly to other specialties, we have experienced weakness across most markets for several quarters in a row now. These markets are typically dependent upon the health of the industrial economies in each region.

While the U.S. economy remains healthy today, the economy in Europe continues to be weaker. More specifically, our expectations of recovery in European industrial and automotive markets are somewhat tempered versus last quarter, as we are seeing little improvement in economic indicators in this region. In summary, we like the fundamentals in each of the markets we serve, and we strongly believe that the diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company over the longer term. Let's turn now to slide 14. I want to spend a few minutes on two exciting investments we are making in our aerospace assets in order to further strengthen our market leadership position. As you all know by now, our first strategic focus is to grow our value-add. The two investments I'm about to discuss do just that in a most exciting segment for us, aerospace.

First, as we announced in March, our aerospace and TID facility in Ravenswood, West Virginia, was recently selected by the U.S. Department of Energy to receive an investment of up to $75 million to deploy low to zero carbon technology. The total size of the project is expected to be around $150 million, inclusive of the U.S. Department of Energy investment, and it is split 50/50 between maintenance CapEx and return-seeking CapEx. In terms of project details, we are looking to replace three legacy casting centers in Ravenswood with two new, modern, state-of-the-art casting centers dedicated for aerospace and TID products. This investment will support the installation of low-emissions, smart melt furnaces that can operate using a range of fuels, including clean hydrogen, paving the way towards a zero-carbon cast house.

In addition to reducing carbon emissions, the project is expected to help maximize recycled scrap intake and equipment efficiency, reduce our reliance on external suppliers by increasing our internal slab casting capabilities, improve worker safety with the introduction of a hands-free casting process, and contribute to the local communities around Ravenswood. In terms of timing, the project will be staged, and we expect the first casting center to ramp up in 2026, with a second casting center ramping up in 2028. We are extremely honored and proud to have been selected for this investment, and we express our gratitude to the Department of Energy for their support of Constellium and the aluminum industry. Moving on to the second investment, I'm excited to announce today that we are adding a third casthouse at our facility in Issoire, France, dedicated to our Airware products.

The total size of this investment is close to EUR 40 million of return-seeking CapEx, plus working capital to get the casthouse up and running. The project is expected to significantly increase our capacity and production of Airware products, which will be critical to respond to increased demand in the years to come. Developed through over 20 years of research and development, Airware brings together a unique combination of benefits. It provides low density, strength, thermal stability, corrosion resistance, light weighting, and other attributes. Airware is already in use today across several major aircraft platforms and space programs, and we are excited about the future growth potential for this unique solution in these markets. In terms of timing, we expect to complete the casthouse by the end of 2025 and to ramp up the casthouse in 2026 and beyond.

As I mentioned, the investment in Ravenswood is split between maintenance and return-seeking CapEx, while the project in Issoire is return-seeking CapEx. We expect the return-seeking spending on aerospace investments to well exceed our target IRR of 15%. Also, we expect both projects to be funded without an increase to our overall CapEx levels. Our A&T segment is delivering record performance today, and these investments will create new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond. Turning now to the slide 15, we detail our key messages and financial guidance. Our team delivered solid performance in the first quarter of 2024, despite the mixed end market demand environment we faced and the significant weather-related impacts at our Muscle Shoals facility. A&T delivered record first quarter segment Adjusted EBITDA, and importantly, we also launched our share repurchase program in March.

As we look ahead, like many others, we are continuing to face uncertainties on the macroeconomic and geopolitical fronts. At Constellium, we like our end market positioning, and we are optimistic about our prospects.... Based on our current outlook, we are maintaining our guidance for 2024. We are targeting Adjusted EBITDA, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag, in the range of EUR 740 million-EUR 770 million, and free cash flow in excess of EUR 130 million. To give some more color on earnings cadence for the year, our guidance assumes sequential improvements in Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, though we do expect the second quarter of 2024 to be below the record, the record quarter we achieved last year.

This is driven primarily by persisting weakness in European automotive, industrial, and specialties end markets, as well as scheduled maintenance outages planned in the second quarter this year. I also want to reiterate our long-term guidance of Adjusted EBITDA, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag, in excess of EUR 800 million in 2025, and our commitment to maintain our target leverage range of 1.5x-2.5x. To conclude, let me say again that I'm proud of our results and very excited about our future. We are extremely well positioned for long-term success, and we remain focused on executing our strategy and creating value for our shareholders. With that, Candice, we will now open the Q&A session.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you'd like to register a question, please press star, followed by one on your telephone keypad, ensuring you are unmuted locally. If you'd like to withdraw your question at any time, you can do so by pressing star, followed by two. Our first question comes from the line of Curt Woodworth of UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Curt Woodworth (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thank you. Good morning, Jean-Marc and Jack. I just wanted to drill down into some of the moving pieces affecting PARP. It seems like there's kind of a variety of issues going on between some operational challenges at Muscle Shoals, as well as, you know, you highlighted negative mix in the quarter. But when we look at, you know, your unit profitability year-on-year or on a sequential basis, it's pretty significantly depressed relative to, you know, I think, broader expectations for, you know, mixed benefits you would see in auto. And obviously, a lot of the efforts the company's made to reposition some of the contracts in the can sheet. So, you know, can you kind of just give us a sense for maybe what, you know, what the Muscle Shoals kind of headwind was in this quarter?

And then, you know, as you think about 2Q in P&ARP, P&ARP, can you talk about what your margin expectations are, and how we should think about it going into the remainder of the year?

Jack Guo (CFO)

Sure, Curt. Good morning. So I'll start, and then Jean-Marc can help me. So when you look at the PARP results in the first quarter, you know, mix was unfavorable, and that's because we've had more packaging volume in the relative proportion of the mix. So that's one thing to keep in mind of as we kinda look forward. On the cost side, you know, PARP actually had a substantial amount of impact on the cost side from the Muscle Shoals weather event in the first quarter. But obviously, that's an adverse result compared to first quarter of last year.

So now if we kinda look forward in terms of margin assumption, I mean, this is something we also mentioned in the past that, you know, this business unit with the recovery in packaging and strong automotive, it should see, you know, margin returning to over 300 EUR per ton. We didn't see that in Q1. To get to the over 300 EUR per ton level, you know, we're looking at improved performance at Muscle Shoals. We're looking at, you know, more recycling benefits, and that will be coming up. That will be helped out by the FD six or the Neuf-Brisach investment there, which is wrapping up starting the fourth quarter this year. And also, you know, with the continued focus on pricing and cost discipline.

You know, if you look at those buckets and look at what, you know, the results in the first quarter, 2024 will continue to be a year in transition from a margin perspective.

Curt Woodworth (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. And then I guess, you know, with respect to some of the new greenfield mills that are planning to come up in, in late 2025 and 2026, and obviously there's been some delays at, at one of the mills. I'm just wondering, are, are you seeing any change in kind of your customers looking, to come to, to you to secure any more volume as a potential hedge against delays in, in some of these projects? And then, you know, just given there's been a little slower ramp-up in the canned sheet market, you talked about industrial, you know, what, what's your confidence level that this capacity, can be absorbed? And, and do you have a strategy to try to, you know, extend contract duration, within your mix to, to kind of hedge against potential oversupply?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. So Curt, there's plenty in your question here. So on the canned sheet side, as we communicated, we are sold out through 27 and nearly 28. So there is not a possibility for us to increase our sales in this period. But we do see customers, you know, wanting some more, possibly as a hedge against a ramp-up, you know, because they're questioning the ramp-up of these new mills. We're trying hard to meet their needs, but it's extremely difficult because, again, we've built a very solid position with long-term contracts, which we like, and that's where we are. So I think the capacity of the market to absorb the volumes. I think on a macro basis, we've always said there needs to be more capacity in North America.

So these two greenfields are needed to meet the needs of the market in can and in auto, and also, specialties, which is more cyclical, but also in specialties where we don't participate ourselves. And we're seeing the evidence of it in our discussions with our customers where, you know, we are sold out, and yes, they would, like, a bit more if we could, make it. So I think that's how I would, answer your question, but.

Curt Woodworth (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. And then maybe just lastly on the guidance for 2Q to be down. Would you expect that to be primarily functional around the P&ARP segment? And then can you give us any kind of magnitude of how much it could be down year-on-year? I'll turn it over. Thank you.

Jack Guo (CFO)

So we're we won't go into the specifics here, Kurt, but just, when you look across the business unit, I mean, units, keep in mind, you know, the second quarter for A&T last year was a record quarter. So that's a tough comp, number one. And then when you look at volume expectations, you know, we do expect the trends we've seen in the first quarter to continue into the second quarter, at, you know, P&ARP and AS&I. And also, keep in mind, you know, in the second quarter this year, as we mentioned in the script, we do have some planned outages in preparation for a stronger back half of the year, and that will have some impact on volume in the second quarter.

Curt Woodworth (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from the line of Katja Jancic, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Katja Jancic (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I think you mentioned that you expect to use a large portion of your free cash flow for share buybacks in the second half. Can you talk a bit about what % of free cash flow you would, you would be comfortable in using for share buybacks?

Jack Guo (CFO)

We won't be too precise here, Katja, but thank you for the question. You know, we are expected to generate over EUR 130 million of free cash flow. So when we say a large percentage, you can imagine it's more than half, but it's not 100%.

Katja Jancic (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, and maybe I missed this, but-

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

And-

Katja Jancic (Equity Research Analyst)

On the new... Yeah, sorry.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

No, Katja, good morning, it's Jean-Marc here. Just wanted to add that we want to stay within our target leverage range, even though we may not be, you know, specific as to, you know, any given quarter, but overall, we want to stay within our target leverage range.

Jack Guo (CFO)

And just one more point of clarification. You mentioned about second half, you know, we, I, I don't think we'll be too, we'll be quite hands-off, right? So, you know, I think, and just leave it with the, the 10b5-1 program in terms of execution throughout the year.

Katja Jancic (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. And then on the new Airware casthouse, is there a volume increase that you can talk about? I might have missed that.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yes, Katja, there is a volume increase. We are not going to talk about it because it's commercially extremely sensitive. It's a light material, so you will not see a big increase on the tons, but you will see a significant increase in value add for Constellium over time, and that's what is very exciting for us.

Katja Jancic (Equity Research Analyst)

Maybe if I can add one more-

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah, yeah, you can think of these two investments we're talking about as, you know, if you think of the CapEx dollars to the EBITDA return we're getting out of them, they are the same kind of ratio as what we're observing with the upcoming RCC in Neuf-Brisach. So really attractive investments for us.

Katja Jancic (Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect. On the A&T segment, the EBITDA per ton margin is up year over year, but it was down sequentially. How should we think about it in the rest of the year?

Jack Guo (CFO)

So, Katja, I wouldn't read too much into the, you know, quarterly margin, but I think, for the business unit, we have momentum in this business unit with aerospace, right? So, the margin will stay high, and it'll stay well above EUR 1,000 per ton guidance that was provided before.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

As a long term.

Jack Guo (CFO)

As a long-term, yeah.

Katja Jancic (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thank you so much.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Thank you, Katja.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Peterson of JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Bill Peterson (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, hi, good afternoon. Good morning, Jean-Marc and Jack. Kind of taking a higher level view for the full year, you're reiterating your EBITDA guidance. You know, however, given the weaker starting point, you know, you talk about a quarterly improvement, but can you provide a bridge on how we should think about the EBITDA growth for the remainder of the year? Like, what visibility do you have to support the reiteration of guidance? You know, what's in your control, and what needs to happen in the various end markets to achieve that, especially in the context of the macro headwinds you spoke to in the prepared remarks. I guess what we're looking for is what's gonna be driving the back half step up in profitability?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. Good morning, Bill. I'll, I'll start, and Jack will help me as well. So I think it's important to note that, you know, if you look at can sheet, it's growing again. If you look at automotive in the U.S., it's extremely strong. It's a little bit disappointing in Europe, but it's extremely strong in the U.S., and aerospace is exceptionally strong for us and continues to show strength. So that's, you know, 70% of our sales that are actually experiencing tailwinds, and we've got quite a bit of visibility because of our long-term contracts. So we don't know for sure what the second half of the year will be, but we've got pretty good visibility. So that's the number one very important element in the backdrop for our guidance.

Second element is the weather event, I hate to come back to it, that we experienced in January in Muscle Shoals was extremely significant. That's a significant drag on EBITDA and on costs and on volumes. Obviously, we're not forecasting that to happen again for the remainder of the year. So you take these two elements, and you already have a good view into the projection for the rest of the year. So it will mean that the second half, I mean, we'll be back and loaded. The second half will be quite strong under the current environment.

We are not betting on an improvement in European industry, the European industrial outlook, but the strength in the other markets should carry us through the rest of the year. Jack, anything you want to add?

Jack Guo (CFO)

No, I think it was good.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Did I answer your question, Bill?

Bill Peterson (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. No, yeah, thanks for that color. Coming back to packaging and I guess on the multi-year view, I think you know, you've talked about the need for additional North American capacity. You know, you obviously see a lot of imports in the market. But I guess the question is, as we look out over a multi-year period with this additional capacity coming online in the U.S., what happens to the volumes that are being imported? Do you see any potential for these imports to compete with your European businesses in that side of the pond? Or how should we think about the competitive landscape you know, universally-

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Mm-hmm

Bill Peterson (Equity Research Analyst)

... within your packaging group, with this North American additions?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. So, so you're right to point out in the U.S. today, the imports are high, abnormally high, and, as you've seen, there's some trade actions that are ongoing and developing. So beyond the fact that they tend to not be very competitive delivered to customers, in addition, they're likely to face more duties. So where would they go in the future? Europe is a possible destination, but you have also to remember that can sheet is growing not only cans are growing not only in America and Europe, but they're growing over the world. So there is more need for these products. The industrial economies in Asia are also recovering, even though China is a little bit weak these days. There's also a significant dynamism in Asia and other regions in the world.

So these exports will find other homes. And specifically for us, when it comes to Europe, I mean, it's still a fragmented market. It's difficult and more complicated to do business in Europe than it is in North America for somebody who comes in from far away. And we are seeing also some, you know, less naivety, let's say, from the Europeans about, you know, competitors dumping from overseas into the European market. So we don't feel like there is much of a risk. And finally, it is unclear to me how, you know, imports from faraway places can be competitive in Europe, given the logistics.

Bill Peterson (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, fair enough. If I can sneak in one more, just you mentioned AS&I-

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Sure

Bill Peterson (Equity Research Analyst)

... some mix, some pricing mix headwinds. But I guess, can you elaborate on that? You spoke—it sounds like you said the competition. I guess I'm wondering what's changed in this market, and I guess maybe more importantly-

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah

Bill Peterson (Equity Research Analyst)

... when can we think that some of the fundamentals will bottom on the industrial side?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. So AS&I is the most exposed of our three segments to the European, because just of the geography, right? To the European economy. All our industry sales are in Europe, and production is in Europe, and a lot of our auto structures business is in Europe. So the geographic mix is weighing quite heavily on the AS&I performance. So that's really the main driver.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Yeah. Bill, I would just add, you know, when you look at the bridge for AS&I, you know, the volume headwind and the price and mix, you know, that's as a result of lower automotive, for the most part, in Europe. And our performance is consistent with the industry, you know, production build rates in the first quarter and into the second quarter. But that is expected to improve according to, you know, industry forecasts for the sector.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Finally, just one note again, on the volume side, if you look at our shipments in tons, most, the vast majority of the decline is due to the sale of the German extrusion business, which we had in the first quarter. I mean, we had it for the first three quarters of last year, and we sold it. So when you look at the volume level, it looks like a dramatic decline, but it's really because we sold the business.

Bill Peterson (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks a lot, Jean-Marc and Jack, for the insights.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Thank you, Bill.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you, Bill.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Yeah. Hey, good morning. Thanks for the detail. Wanted to ask, first off, on Muscle Shoals, if you could, If I missed them, I apologize, but did you quantify the impact of the heavy snow in the first quarter? And can you discuss a bit more the lingering challenges that you referred to?

Jack Guo (CFO)

So maybe I'll start, Timna. I think in terms of the impact, we did not quantify it. But one way to think about it is, you know, if we didn't have the unusual event, weather event, in the first quarter in January, at Muscle Shoals, PARP would have achieved a better performance, relative to the first quarter of last year.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay, thanks. The lingering challenges you mentioned?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. So, we have expectations for growth. So I'll backtrack a bit. The markets in North America for canned sheet and for automotive are growing. So over the course of the next several years, and even the past few years, we've been raising our expectations of output from Muscle Shoals, and we are constantly running a little bit behind. We're making progress, but we're constantly running a bit behind our own expectations. That's reflected in our guidance, by the way. And that's really what we're talking about, right? So making some progress, but not at the rate at which we were hoping, and we continue to be very focused on improving both the seniority and the knowledge of our teams and then the reliability of our equipment.

It's a daily grind in industrial operations that we continue to be very focused on.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay, got it. And then my other question was just really a higher-level question about, you know, the recent announcement by President Biden to vow to add to aluminum tariffs. Obviously, we also know that if Trump is reelected, he would also add to tariffs broadly. So can you remind us how you feel positioned vis-a-vis those potential increase in import tariffs?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah, thank you, Timna. It's a broad question, and tariffs can take all kinds of shapes and forms, and they have different impacts depending on how they're implemented. So with that said, antidumping tariffs essentially are good because they focus on, you know, players that don't play by the rules, and they level the playing field. So that's good because it's focused and specific. At the other end of the spectrum, you got the 232 tariffs, for instance, that impose a blanket tariff on anything from certain geographies. What it does is essentially raise the price domestically. But if you start granting exemptions to, you know, different players, well, then essentially you've created some competitive advantage for some of these imports.

So some imports are at a penalty, some imports are at a competitive disadvantage, and that becomes very murky to interpret how it's gonna impact the industry. I think the discussion on the 301 tariffs that I think you're alluding to, are in the category of the blanket tariffs, so we'll have to see how they're effectively implemented, what circumvention or exemptions there may be, before we can assess, you know, how much of a positive impact it will have. It should have some positive impacts, but I'm kind of doubtful it will have a massive impact.

I think the other thing that was in the news very recently, I guess it was just yesterday, was potential tariffs in Mexico, and that has the potential to be a nice positive for the industry because Mexico has been used as a gateway, a circumvention route for imports into North America. So that hole is being closed, apparently. So I think that will have more impact than the 301 announcement of President Biden. But we'll see. These things take to develop in unexpected ways at times. But it won't be a negative, but how much of a positive? We'll have to see.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it. Okay, thanks for the help. I'll leave it there.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from the line of Josh Sullivan of The Benchmark Company. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Josh Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Morning, Josh.

Josh Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

With one of your OEM aerospace customers here announcing a change in narrow body production, have you seen any change in demand for aerospace plate leading into that announcement? You know, you mentioned plate inventory is still recovering, still strong. You know, there's a thought that suppliers that are delivering at build rates will be paced, and those that are catching up, but we'll continue to see some good growth. Can we infer from your comments you're in that second bucket?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

... Yeah, so we have not seen any impact. I'll remind you that we are much less exposed to this OEM than to the other one or ones. So our exposure is very limited. We are not seeing, nor are we anticipating any decrease in demand for our products as a result of this reduction in rate.

Josh Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

And then just kind of relatedly, you know, given the negotiations with Boeing, Airbus, Spirit on the European operations, would any potential change in ownership from Spirit for those Airbus-related assets fall under the Airbus contract? And could that mean any pickup or change in Constellium content there?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

I don't think so, Josh. I don't think this will have any impact, positive or negative, on us.

Josh Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. And then just lastly, on that third casthouse for Airware, I think you mentioned some more value-added work you're gonna be doing there. What does that mean? Is that a new alloy or a vertical move or anything? Can you just expand on that?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

So, Airware is now a well-established alloy, specialty alloy in aerospace applications, and we are seeing increased demand for this alloy and, you know, the products made out of it, out of it, right? And these command a very nice price because it's very high value for our customers, right? The properties that you achieve are extremely interesting in sophisticated applications, especially in space, where, you know, weight and the cryogenic resistance are super important. So we are seeing now, after many years of development, commercial development in the market, more and more aircraft and more and more platforms in space adopting Airware. As a consequence, there is a need for more of that product, and that will be very positive for our A&D segment in 2026 and, you know, for the next 10 years after that, if not more.

Josh Sullivan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Good to hear. Well, thank you for the time. Bye.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

We're very excited about this investment. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Sean Wondrack of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Sean Wondrack (Director in Credit Research)

Hey, guys. Congratulations on the ratings upgrade, long overdue.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you so much.

Sean Wondrack (Director in Credit Research)

I appreciate your guidance, very thorough here. When I think about some of your larger cost buckets, like energy costs and labor costs, I guess on the energy side, can you talk about sort of what your assumption is for this year? And just as it relates to labor, do you have any unions resettling their contracts this year? Is there anything there that could potentially push costs up a little bit? Thank you.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Yep. So, thank you for the question, Sean. So I think, yeah, no, no is the answer on the, on the labor side. When you look at the cost, pressure, you know, we, on the energy, more specifically, we've said that energy cost has crested in the second half, more in the fourth quarter of last year. And, as we've mentioned, our hedge cost is at more favorable levels compared to 2023, but, you know, still remain well above historical averages. But, you know, that will- that could be a tailwind, continue to be a tailwind for us from a cost perspective into the rest of this year. On the other hand, the labor cost has continued to be high. Remember, labor is the second largest, category, for cost behind, behind metal.

The inflation there is really locked in for this year, so that can continue to be severe.

Sean Wondrack (Director in Credit Research)

Okay, great. Also, you know, you've pursued a balanced strategy of growing EBITDA and reducing debt on an absolute basis. Clearly, you know, you're several innings into this. Should we expect any permanent debt reduction going forward, or do you think it'll mostly be through EBITDA growth to the extent you're comfortable? Thank you.

Jack Guo (CFO)

I think for the most part, we will... I mean, we will naturally delever. And from a free cash flow perspective, you know, a large portion will be going towards share buyback. But, you know, then we're keeping a little bit, you know, to enhance our financial flexibility, if you will, but it'll mostly come from natural deleveraging.

Sean Wondrack (Director in Credit Research)

Right. Appreciate that. And then the last one from me. As you think about your share repurchase program, and, you know, it's likely, you know, you generate more of your cash in back half of the year, and you weigh it against sort of M&A opportunities, is there anything out there, especially in Europe, now that we've had a depressed environment for a period of time, that could be attractive to you, either in the near to medium term, or do you think you're just gonna continue along with your organic plan of repurchasing shares?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. So we are very committed to the share buyback program. This is number one. And we're very committed to financial discipline. Then strategically, on the M&A side, we, if that happens, we'll be highly selective. It's got to meet our internal rate of return. It's got to be, allow us to stay within our target leverage or, you know, if there's a change, it must be very quickly rectified and back to target leverage within a year. And it's-

Sean Wondrack (Director in Credit Research)

Right

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

... got to be synergistic. And finally, we talked about our priority being on recycling. We want to increase our recycling. We want to increase our autonomy vis-à-vis the primary producers. That's, you know, why we're doing the investment in in France. That's why we're doing the investment in Ravenswood. And we'll continue to do that, to increase our recycling capacity organically and potentially if there's an attractive acquisition opportunity externally. But again, that's just one tool in the toolbox, and it's got to be employed strategically, selectively, and with respect of the target leverage range.

Sean Wondrack (Director in Credit Research)

That's great. Great job, this year and last. I appreciate it all. Thanks very much.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you, Sean.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Thank you, Sean.

Operator (participant)

As there are no additional questions waiting at this time, I'd like to hand the conference call back over to Jean-Marc Germain, CEO of Constellium, for closing remarks.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you very much. Yep, thank you very much, everybody, for your, for listening in today and, for your questions, and we look forward to updating you on our progress in a few months. Have a good day. Bye-bye.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.