Constellium - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 revenue was $2.103B (+9% YoY) with diluted EPS of $0.25; Adjusted EBITDA of $146M reflected a negative $13M non‑cash metal price lag, while segment performance was mixed with strength in P&ARP and weakness in AS&I and Holdings & Corporate.
• Revenue modestly exceeded Wall Street consensus, and EBITDA was near Street expectations; EPS missed consensus (Street: ~$0.32 EPS vs actual $0.25), driven by weaker AS&I and higher corporate costs; company raised FY25 Adjusted EBITDA guidance (ex- metal lag) to $620–$650M and maintained FCF >$120M, citing packaging strength, tariff mitigation, and scrap spread tailwinds.
• Management highlighted tariff impacts as net positive longer term and improved Muscle Shoals operations; leverage rose to 3.6x mid-year but is expected to decline through year-end with stronger H2 and ongoing buybacks (3.4M shares, $35M in Q2).
• Near-term stock catalysts: raised FY25 EBITDA guidance, packaging outperformance, and expected H2 improvement from tariff pass-throughs and scrap spreads; watch for continued auto softness and metal-price-lag volatility.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products: Segment Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% YoY to $74M on higher packaging shipments (+14% YoY) and improved Muscle Shoals performance; management: “our performance at Muscle Shoals continues to improve”.
  • Guidance raised: FY25 Adjusted EBITDA (ex- lag) to $620–$650M and FCF >$120M; CEO: “we are raising our guidance… based on our current outlook”.
  • Cash generation and buybacks: Cash from operations $114M; free cash flow $41M; 3.4M shares repurchased for $35M; leverage expected to trend down as year progresses.

• What Went Wrong

  • AS&I weakness: Segment Adjusted EBITDA fell 40% YoY to $18M on unfavorable price/mix and net tariff impact; automotive shipments down 12% with weakness in NA and Europe.
  • Corporate costs: Holdings & Corporate expense increased to $(12)M (up $6M YoY) due to ERP upgrades and higher accrued labor costs.
  • Metal price lag: Non‑cash metal price lag was a $13M headwind in Q2 (negative in Europe on decreasing premiums) versus positive lag in Q2 2024 (+$45M), dampening reported Adjusted EBITDA.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

We're now handing the floor to Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations, to begin. Jason, please go ahead when you're ready.

Jason Hershiser (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Adam. I would like to welcome everyone to our second quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Marc Germain, and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Guo. After the presentations, we will have a Q&A session. A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at constellium.com, and today's call is being recorded. Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings. Today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events, and expectations, and may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K. All information in this presentation is as of the date of the presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition, today's presentation includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation, which supplement our GAAP disclosures. With that, I would now like to hand the call over to Jean-Marc.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Constellium. Let's begin on slide five and discuss the highlights from our second quarter results. I would like to start with safety, our number one priority. Our recordable case rate in the second quarter was 2.6 per million hours worked, following our strong safety performance in the first quarter and bringing our year-to-date recordable case rate to 1.8 per million hours worked. While this performance remains best in class, this is a humbling reminder that we all need to constantly maintain our focus on safety to achieve the ambitious target we have set of 1.5 per million hours worked. Turning now to our financial results.

Shipments, we have 384,000 tons, or up 2% compared to the second quarter of 2024, due to higher shipments in PARP that were partially offset by lower shipments in ANT and ASNI. Revenue of $2.1 billion increased 9% compared to the second quarter of 2024, due to higher shipments and favorable price and mix, including higher metal prices experienced in the quarter versus last year. Remember, while our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a pass-through business model, which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk. Our net income of $36 million in the quarter compares to net income of $77 million in the second quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $146 million in the quarter, though this includes a negative non-cash impact from metal price lag of $13 million.

If we exclude the impact of metal price lag, the real economic performance of the business reflects an adjusted EBITDA of $159 million in the quarter compared to the $180 million last year. Moving now to free cash flow. Our free cash flow in the quarter was strong at $41 million. During the quarter, we returned $35 million to shareholders through the repurchase of 3.4 million shares. Our leverage at the end of the second quarter was 3.6 times, though we expect this to be the peak and for leverage to trend down as we move through the rest of the year. We delivered solid results this quarter despite continued demand weakness across most of our end markets outside of packaging. We remained focused on strong cost control, free cash flow generation, and commercial and capital discipline. Overall, I am quite pleased with our second quarter and first half performance.

Now, please turn to slide number six. Before turning the call over to Jack, I wanted to give you a quick update on the Section 232 tariffs, as well as other tariffs under IEEPA, and how we see the potential impact to Constellium. Before going into details on the slide, let me summarize a bit. As I mentioned last quarter, the tariff situation is a fluid and multifaceted situation. We see both some positive and negative impacts on our business. At this stage, we continue to believe it presents us with various opportunities, as well as some additional costs, but it should be a net positive for us. The guidance we are giving today does include the direct impact from tariffs that we are able to estimate, given what we know today, and it does include several mitigating factors we have identified to offset the impacts.

It also includes our current assumptions on end market demand in the current environment. Our guidance assumes a relatively stable macro environment, and it does not include potential impacts from additional tariffs to those that are known today. Shifting to the details on the slide now. On the production side, we are mostly local for local in the regions where we operate. Our Automotive Structures business in the U.S. buys extrusions from Canada, including from our joint venture in Canada. These extrusions have become more expensive under Section 232 tariffs, which impacted the first half by around $7 million on a gross basis. The gross costs could continue to accumulate going forward to an additional $20 million for the rest of the year before mitigating items.

We are working with our customers and suppliers on pass-throughs and other mitigation efforts, and we have made good progress on a number of them. We expect these actions to result in some benefits in the second half, which will help mitigate the impact on our results. In Aerospace, we ship small quantities from Europe to the U.S. to serve global OEMs, although this has a pass-through today, and we will not be impacted. Regarding the automotive specific tariffs that fall under Section 232, the volumes we ship across Mexican and Canadian borders are compliant with USMCA. On the metal supply side, we import some primary aluminum from Canada, given the lack of smelter capacity here in the U.S. As of today, we have commercial agreements in place to help mitigate the tariff impact on this metal.

In terms of scrap, aluminum scrap is excluded from the current scope of Section 232 tariffs, and we purchase most of our scrap needs from dealers in the U.S. The impact on scrap from tariffs should be a net positive, as a rise in the U.S. regional premium is beneficial for the domestic supply chain. We are starting to see this already, as scrap spreads for used beverage cans, for instance, in the U.S. have widened in the first half of this year, and we expect to see some benefit of this in the second half. In terms of commercial impacts, these too should be a net positive for Constellium. Today, over 1 million tons of flat-rolled aluminum imports are coming into the U.S. each year, given the lack of domestic supply available. Tariffs will make domestically produced products more competitive, and we should benefit from this.

During the first half of this year, we announced price increases for all rolled products shipped in the U.S. This has already started to benefit us on non-contracted volumes in the second quarter of this year, and this benefit should continue to grow moving forward. In terms of end markets, the tariff and trade situation is creating broader macro uncertainty, and it is having a negative impact on markets such as automotive. Our guidance assumes weak conditions in automotive in both North America and Europe, and we are monitoring the conditions very closely. We believe that the newly announced trade deals will somewhat reduce uncertainty in the global markets. That said, we are not discounting the broader macro uncertainty.

We remain focused on our cost reduction efforts under our Vision 25 program, and we are optimizing our existing capacity depending on market conditions, such as shifting some capacity where we can from automotive markets into packaging markets. To close out on tariffs, as I said before, the situation remains very fluid. We are continually monitoring and assessing the potential impact of current and future trade policies, though at this stage, we believe the net impacts of tariffs on aluminum present us with some opportunities in the current environment. With that, I will now turn the call over to Jack for further details on our financial performance. Jack?

Jack Guo (CFO)

Thank you, Jean-Marc. Thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. Please turn now to slide eight, and let's focus on our ANT segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of $78 million decreased 13% compared to the second quarter last year. Volume was a headwind of $18 million due to lower aerospace and TID shipments. Aerospace shipments were down 12% in the quarter versus last year, as commercial OEMs continue to work through excess inventory as a result of lingering supply chain challenges. Demand in space and military aircraft remained healthy. TID shipments were down 11% versus last year, as commercial transportation and general industrial markets remained weak in the quarter. Price and mix was a tailwind of $2 million due to improved contractual and spot pricing in aerospace and TID, partially offset by weaker overall mix in the quarter.

Costs were a tailwind of $2 million, primarily as a result of lower operating costs. FX and other was also a tailwind of $2 million in the quarter due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar. Now, turn to slide nine, and let's focus on our PARP segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of $74 million increased 12% compared to the second quarter last year. Volume was a tailwind of $14 million, as higher shipments in packaging were partially offset by lower shipments in automotive. Packaging shipments increased 14% in the quarter versus last year, as demand remained healthy in both North America and Europe. In North America, we also benefited at Muscle Shoals from improved operational performance in the quarter. Automotive shipments decreased 14% in the quarter, with weakness in both North America and Europe.

Price and mix was a headwind of $7 million in the quarter due to tariff-related metal impacts and weaker mix. Costs were a modest headwind of $1 million, primarily as a result of unfavorable metal costs, mostly offset by lower operating costs. FX and other was a tailwind of $2 million in the quarter. Now, turn to slide ten. Let's focus on our ASNI segment. Adjusted EBITDA of $18 million decreased 40% compared to the second quarter of last year. Volume was a $1 million headwind as a result of lower shipments in automotive, mostly offset by higher shipments in industry excluded products. Automotive shipments were down 12% in the quarter, with weakness in both North America and Europe. Industry shipments were up 14% in the quarter versus last year.

The increase in industry shipments is a result of us catching up to the lost volumes from the valet interruption, as industry markets in Europe remain weak overall. Price and mix was a $16 million headwind in the quarter due to weaker pricing for spot volumes and a weaker mix. Costs were a tailwind of $5 million, primarily due to lower operating costs, partially offset by the net impact of tariff headwind in the quarter. It is not on the slide here, but our holdings and corporate expense was $12 million in the quarter. Holdings and corporate expense this quarter was up $6 million from last year due to additional IT spending with the upgrade of our ERP system and higher accrued labor costs, partially offset by lower headcounts. As we said last quarter, we expect holdings and corporate expense to run at approximately $40 million in 2025.

It is also not on the slide here, but I wanted to summarize the current cost environment we're facing. As you know, we operate a pass-through business model, so we're not materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input. On other metal costs, we experienced a dramatic tightening of spot scrap spreads in North America in 2024. The tightness continued into the beginning of this year, though spreads improved in the spot market as we moved through the first half of the year. Given our scrap purchases were essentially locked in for the second quarter, we did not benefit from this dynamic during the period. However, we expect to benefit starting in the third quarter of this year and into the rest of the year. For energy, our 2025 costs are moderately more favorable compared to 2024, although energy prices remain above historical averages.

Other inflationary pressures have eased to more normal levels. As we said in previous quarters, given the weakness we're seeing in several of our markets, we have accelerated our Vision 25 cost improvement program with measures such as improving operational efficiency, reducing headcounts and other labor costs, reducing non-metal procurement spending, optimizing maintenance costs by minimizing the use of outside contractors, and cost reduction efforts across many other categories. We have demonstrated strong cost performance in the past, and we're confident in our ability to right-size our cost structure for the current demand environment. Now, let's turn to slide 11 and discuss our free cash flow. We generated $41 million of free cash flow in the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to $38 million.

The year-over-year increase in the first half is a result of less cash used for working capital, lower capital expenditures, and lower cash taxes, partially offset by lower segment-adjusted EBITDA and higher cash interest. Looking at 2025, we expect to generate free cash flow in excess of $120 million for the full year, which is unchanged from our prior guidance. We expect CapEx to be around $325 million for the full year. We still plan to reduce our CapEx this year to stay prudent, though most of the benefits are offset by unfavorable foreign exchange translation. Cash interest and cash taxes are running slightly higher for the year than previously expected, at $125 million and $45 million, respectively.

We expect working capital and other items to be a modest use of cash for the full year, which includes the impact of higher metal prices this year and the working capital ramp-up in Valet. At this stage, we have fully rebuilt our supply chain and inventories in Valet, which has had a negative impact on free cash flow in the first half of this year. As Jean-Marc Germain mentioned previously, we continued our share buyback activities in the quarter. During the quarter, we repurchased 3.4 million shares for $35 million, bringing our year-to-date total to 4.8 million shares for $50 million. We have approximately $171 million remaining in our existing share repurchase program, and we intend to use a large portion of the free cash flow generated this year for the program. Now, let's turn to slide 12 and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity position.

At the end of the second quarter, our net debt of $1.9 billion was up approximately $120 million compared to the end of 2024, with the largest driver being the translation impact from the weaker U.S. dollar at the end of the quarter. Our leverage was 3.6x at the end of the quarter, or up 0.5x versus the end of 2024. As Jean-Marc mentioned previously, we expect this to be the peak leverage and to trend down as we move through the year, with the expected improvement in trailing adjusted EBITDA. We currently expect to finish the year with leverage at or below three times, and we're committed to bringing our leverage back down into our target leverage range of 1.5x-2.5x and maintaining this range over time. As you can see in our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2028.

Our liquidity increased by $114 million from the end of 2024 and remains strong at $841 million as of the end of the second quarter. Before turning it back over to Jean-Marc, I wanted to mention a recent development for the company. As of June 30, 2025, Constellium no longer qualified as a foreign private issuer and will transition into becoming a U.S. domestic filer starting in 2026. As you probably recall, beginning in 2025, Constellium was already voluntarily electing to file annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q with the SEC. Given this change in filing status, we will begin to file all other required U.S. domestic forms with the SEC, including a DEF-14A and Section 16 forms, in addition to our annual and quarterly reports starting on January 1, 2026. With that, I will now hand the call back to Jean-Marc.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you, Jack. Let's turn to slide 14 and discuss our current end market outlook. The majority of our portfolio today is serving end markets benefiting from durable, sustainability-driven, secular growth, in which aluminum, a light and infinitely recyclable material, plays a critical role. However, many of these markets continue to face demand headwinds today and are also now facing uncertainty given the tariff situation. Turning first to the aerospace market, commercial aircraft backlogs are robust today and continue to grow. Major aero OEMs remain focused on increasing build rates for both narrow and wide-body aircraft, though supply chain challenges have continued to slow deliveries below what OEMs were expecting for several years in a row now. As a result, aerospace supply chains need to adjust to lower than expected build rates, which is causing a shift in demand to the right for some of our products.

Despite the slowdown in the near term, demand has stabilized for the most part and we remain confident that the long-term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remain intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. Demand also remains stable in the business and regional jet market and healthy for space and military aircraft. Looking across our entire aerospace business, we believe our product portfolio is unmatched in the industry, and we have industry-leading R&D capabilities for aluminum aerospace solutions. In terms of outlook, I want to make one additional point on our ANT segment. In the past, we have talked about through-the-cycle adjusted EBITDA target for the segment of $1,000 per ton. Based on our contractual positions and the performance of the business, we now expect through-the-cycle adjusted EBITDA of $1,100 per ton, and we expect to remain above that level in the near term.

Turning now to packaging, demand remains healthy in both North America and Europe. The long-term outlook for this end market continues to be favorable, as evidenced by the growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage can, capacity growth plans from all can makers in both regions, and the greenfield investments ongoing here in North America. Longer term, we continue to expect packaging markets to grow low to mid-single digits in both North America and Europe. Let's turn now to automotive. Automotive OEM production of light vehicles in Europe remains well below pre-COVID levels and is still below pre-COVID levels in North America as well. Demand in North America has continued to soften in the near term and is expected to feel the impact of the current Section 232 auto tariffs.

Demand in Europe remains weak, particularly in the luxury and premium vehicle and electric vehicle segments where we have greater exposure. Automotive production in Europe is also expected to feel the impact of the current Section 232 auto tariffs, given the amount of vehicles the U.S. imports from Europe. In the long term, we believe electric and hybrid vehicles will continue to grow, but at a lower rate than previously expected. Sustainability trends, such as light weighting and increased fuel efficiency, will continue to drive the demand for aluminum products. As a result, we remain positive on this market over the longer term in both regions, despite the weakness we are seeing today. As you can see on the page, these three core end markets represent over 80% of our last 12 months' revenue.

Turning lastly to other specialties, in North America, demand appears to have stabilized, albeit at low levels, and demand remains weak in Europe. We have experienced weakness across most specialties markets for three years now. We believe TID markets in North America provide us with some opportunities today, given the current tariffs make imports less competitive compared to domestic production. As a reminder, these specialties markets are typically dependent upon the health of the industrial economies in each region, including drivers like the interest rate environment, industrial production levels, and consumer spending patterns. We continue to work hard to adjust our cost structure to the current demand environment, which will put the business in an even better position when the industrial economies do recover.

To conclude on the end markets, we like the fundamentals in each of the markets we serve, and we strongly believe that the diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company in any environment. Turning lastly now to slide 15, we detail our key messages and financial guidance. Our team delivered solid results in the second quarter this year, despite continued demand weakness across most of our end markets outside of packaging. We returned $35 million to shareholders in the quarter with a repurchase of 3.4 million shares. While tariffs are creating broader macro uncertainty and impacting end markets like automotive, we are proactively managing our business to the current environment. We remain focused on strong cost control, free cash flow generation, and commercial and capital discipline.

Given our solid performance in the first year and based on our current outlook, including the current end market conditions I just described and assuming a relatively stable macro environment, we are raising our guidance for 2025. We are now targeting adjusted EBITDA, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag, in the range of $620 million-$650 million, and free cash flow in excess of $120 million. Our guidance assumes a modest improvement in the second half this year compared to the first half. This improvement includes the timing of certain tariff mitigations and customer compensations, which will be more pronounced in the third quarter, as well as a more favorable scrap purchasing, the ramp-up in valet, and favorable foreign exchange translation in the back half of the year.

Looking to the future, I also want to reiterate our long-term targets of adjusted EBITDA, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag of $900 million and free cash flow of $300 million in 2028. To conclude, while we continue to face challenging conditions in most of our markets today, we believe that this will pass, and I remain very excited about our future and the ability to seize the many opportunities in front of us, which we have demonstrated in the past. We are extremely well positioned for long-term success and remain focused on executing our strategy and shareholder value creation. With that, operator, we will now open the Q&A session, please.

Operator (participant)

Of course. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question on today's call, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now to enter the queue. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure you are unmuted locally. Star followed by one. Our first question today comes from Corinne Blanchard from Deutsche Bank. Corinne, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Corinne Blanchard (Analyst)

Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Two questions here. Maybe the first one, can you dive a little bit into what gave you the confidence to raise the guidance this quarter? You know I think everyone sees you guys as being pretty cautious, and we would probably have expected it to happen next quarter. That was definitely a great surprise to read that this morning. The second question, could you also give some detail on the guidance that you're expecting between 3Q and 4Q? I know you mentioned the second half being slightly better than the first half, but just wondering how that develops between the two quarters. Thank you.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yes. Good morning, Karine. Thanks for the question. To start with the first one, and I'll ask some help from Jack for both questions, one and two, actually, the confidence to raise guidance. We are quite pleased with our first half, and we look at our order book, and we look at our performance. That's what is informing us for the second half. I think it's useful to, as you said, to maybe give the different puts and takes here going into the second half. In terms of what is going well, packaging is going well in both continents, and our performance at Muscle Shoals continues to improve. We're quite pleased with that, and that's helping us really secure substantial gains in packaging, as you see in the growth that we are experiencing over the last year. The second impact is, last year was a tough year for us.

We really focused very strongly on cost reduction, and our Vision 25 program is running very well, ahead of our expectations, like the packaging volumes are. Finally, the scrap spreads are also beneficial in the U.S. with the new tariff situation and the increase in the Midwest premium. These factors are good. As Jack mentioned, the scrap spreads really haven't really benefited us in the first half. Another element also that is benefiting us in terms of translation into U.S. dollars is the foreign exchange. It hasn't really benefited us in the first half. It's going to benefit us in the second half. These four factors, right, packaging volumes, Vision 25, scrap spreads, and foreign exchange are better than our assumptions that were underlying our initial guidance. Now, there's a few things that are worse, and it's really on automotive, where the picture is not getting prettier.

We thought at the beginning of the year that our assumptions were conservative. We don't think so anymore. The outside forecasts have kept on going down week after week, nearly. We are approaching automotive in the second half with quite a bit of caution, actually. That's weighing down on our raised guidance, so to say. In terms of aero and TID, this is kind of going as planned. We would like aero to pick up a little bit quicker and sooner, but we're not planning for it in the second half. That's kind of what's underlying the different assumptions. Jack, you want to add anything and maybe comment on the cadence as well?

Jack Guo (CFO)

Sure. I think the only other point I wanted to add is we're doing quite well in terms of working with our customers and suppliers on mitigating the tariff impact, as well as some of the weakness we're seeing in end markets such as automotive. Those benefits, we expect them to start coming in in the third quarter and into the rest of the year, which is a factor to be considered. Given those benefits coming into the third quarter, we're expecting third quarter performance to be stronger than the second quarter. Obviously, in Q4, we have the normal kind of seasonality, so it'll be weaker than Q3.

Corinne Blanchard (Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Bill Peterson from JPMorgan. William, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Jean-Marc and Jack. This is Bennett on for Bill. Thank you for taking my questions today.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Hey, Bennett.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Good morning, Bennett.

I wanted to start with packaging. Good morning. The packaging shipments came in quite strong. It looks like the strongest actually since the second quarter of 2022. Could you shed a little more color on what improvements you saw at Muscle Shoals during the quarter, and if you would and/or could pivot, you know, further ABS capacity to packaging in the meantime?

Yeah. The packaging, you know, strength is in both Europe and North America. As you point out, when automotive is weak, it gives us the opportunity to have more time available on our mills to dedicate to packaging. That's with the backdrop of a packaging, you know, market that is quite healthy in both regions. That has helped us quite a bit in, you know, achieving that very nice performance in the shipments in Q2. As I said, some of it is because we're running well, so that's a good thing. Some of it is because automotive is not going well, which is not such a good thing. In terms of running well, our operations, our Muscle Shoals are stabilized quite a bit.

You know that we ran into quite a few operational issues post-COVID that took us quite a bit of time to address in terms of, you know, getting the right manning, the right training, the right performance from our assets through a more predictive maintenance. All these things are coming into play now, and we feel quite confident that now that we've had, you know, seven, eight months of very good performance at Muscle Shoals and we keep on making progress, we feel very confident about the future. We'll keep on working hard to maintain that and improve that level of performance, but I think all things are pointing in the right direction. At the same time, it's a plan that has further potential for improvement, which we're working on, and that requires, obviously, some capital expenditures, which we are planning for in the planning horizon through 2028.

Not only are we happy with where we are, but we're quite excited about the opportunities we have for further improvements at Muscle Shoals.

Thanks for that. Coming to Europe and auto, the outlook remains challenging. I think in the past, you've suggested the company wouldn't look to invest meaningfully there, just given the import pressures. As we think about the strategic outlook for this business, to what extent have you started to engage at all with any Chinese OEMs, you know, looking to localize capacity in the coming years?

We haven't done any of that, Bennett. I mean, we'll see whether they build assembly plants. As I mentioned, we'll be a legitimate supplier to, you know, whatever assembly line there is in Europe. You know that the products we make don't travel very much because they age harden, and therefore, you've got a few weeks of shelf life, really. Local assembly of, you know, wherever an assembly line is, they need to procure their parts from reasonably close by. We'll be a legitimate supplier to whatever customer sets up new lines in Europe, but we haven't been engaged in any discussion of that nature just yet.

Understood. Thank you for the context. I'll get back in the queue.

Thank you, Bennett.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, that's star one to ask a question today. The next question comes from Josh Sullivan from The Benchmark Company. Josh, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Josh Sullivan (Analyst)

Hey, good morning.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Good morning, Josh.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Hi, Josh.

Josh Sullivan (Analyst)

Jean-Marc.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Hey.

Josh Sullivan (Analyst)

Jean-Marc, just on aerospace, in your comments, you talked about the shift in demand to the right from some products. Is that a general comment just on the overall aerospace cycle that we've seen over the last couple of quarters that we're adjusting to? Is there any color you can provide just on the aerospace demand incremental either way in 2Q?

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. I think, Josh, as you know, our products have quite a bit of lead time due to the time we, you know, we ship them to the customer and the time the aircraft actually is delivered. What you've seen, I think, even better than us, is, you know, between the forecasts that were done, say, two years ago by any OEM and what they are building today, there's quite a gap. That gap has kept on being pushed like a bubble to the right. That's what we're caught in, right? The shipments we made two years ago were higher than what is needed to make the planes that they are making and delivering today. That's kind of the stocking up that's happened over the past few years. It is not getting worse. It just gets pushed further to the right. I do hope that it resolves itself reasonably quickly.

We'll see. It's very difficult to tell. Now, what we do know, because we've been through this cycle a few times, is when it comes back, it snaps back very quickly, right, in a matter of a few months. We are not seeing any sign of that just yet, but it's not getting worse.

Josh Sullivan (Analyst)

Got it. Maybe just on the Airware product, we've obviously seen a lot of activity in space. Just curious what you guys are seeing as far as market demand signals from the space market.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. It's quite lumpy, but Airware is a fantastic product for space applications because of how light it is, the weight savings you achieve, obviously, which translates into better payload, which is super important if you want to launch anything into space. It's got also excellent cryogenic properties, so it can resist high temperatures and extremely low temperatures. There is a lot of demand for this product. We're really subject to, here again, it's a matter of the supply chain, right? You know, launches, more launches are good for us, but our products are ordered on the basis of what are the launches that are forecast for one year or two years down the road. Obviously, there's not an absolute fidelity between the forecast made now for two years from now and what will happen in two years from now. It's a bit lumpy. It goes up very quickly.

It goes down very quickly. On average, it's growing, and it's a very good product line for us.

Josh Sullivan (Analyst)

Thank you for the time.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

I should also specify that there is no give to our products, where we've got very strong patents and experience.

Operator (participant)

For the final call for questions, that's star followed by one on your telephone keypad. We have a follow-up from Bill at JPMorgan. Bill, please go ahead.

Hi there. Bennett back on for Bill. I just wanted to follow up on the scrap spreads quickly. It sounds like it listed in the positive category into the back half, but could you help us understand, I guess, if where spreads are today, is this more than enough to more than offset the prior guidance of, I think it was a $15 million-$20 million quarter headwind? Are you seeing any change in flows in Europe, just given the attractive pricing in the U.S. and maybe more flows getting shipped across the pond here? Thank you.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Sure. On scrap spreads, as you know, we are buying some of our scrap metal on an annual basis and some of it on a more spot basis. Call it 50/50 just for the sake of the argument. At the beginning of the year, we were still buying scrap metal at a pretty elevated price on very narrow spreads on the heels of what happened in 2024. Now the scrap spreads have widened. Our open position is larger as well. We are still buying some scrap metal at prices that were negotiated at the end of last year, but we are also buying quite a bit now at prices that are spot prices. Typically, that is how we have been operating for years and years, right? Typically, in any quarter, you could swing $5 million one way or the other.

I made the commentary last year that we were experiencing swings of $15 million-$20 million, which were very unusual. What we could be seeing in the second half, if some of that, so more than $5 million and less than $15 million, swinging back the proper way and the way in our favor. That is what is kind of embedded in our revised guidance. Did I answer your question?

Yes. I guess the one minor follow-up would be any changes in Europe that you're seeing in scrap availability.

Yeah. Sorry, you asked for that, and I didn't, I wasn't trying to dodge it. No, we're not seeing really big flows out of Europe that would be penalizing us. Yes, there is a bit of leakage from Europe into the U.S., but it's not material to our operations.

All right. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Sean Wondrack from Deutsche Bank. Sean, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Sean Wondrack (Director)

Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. Just one for me, and I apologize if you touched on this already. Do you expect to have any impact from the big beautiful bill, whether it's tax or otherwise?

Jack Guo (CFO)

It's a really good question. We're currently assessing the impact, but at the moment, we do not anticipate a significant impact on our financial results this year.

Sean Wondrack (Director)

Right. Okay, that's it for me. Thank you.

Jack Guo (CFO)

Thank you, Sean.

Operator (participant)

We have a follow-up from Corinne at Deutsche Bank. Corinne, please go ahead.

Corinne Blanchard (Analyst)

Hey, thank you for bringing me back. Maybe, and maybe I missed it, but can you just go back on the mid-cycle margin targets? I think in aerospace, you mentioned a jump from $1,000 per ton to like $1,100 per ton. Can you just confirm that? In packaging, do you have any room to see like a price increase coming at some point? Maybe not over the coming months, but I'm just kind of trying to see over the next 6 to 12 months. Thank you.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Yeah. Karine, on the Aerospace & Transportation, that's a blended margin, right? Yes, we're calling it up through the cycle from $1,000 to $1,100 per ton, and that's a reflection of our performance and the contractual positions we have. You know that we've got some contracts that extend several years in the future, so that gives us a good appreciation for where we think we should be. We also said that we're going to be above that level for the near future, namely 2025 and 2026, right? That's it. I hope that confirms and that is your response to your question. Regarding packaging, I don't want to go into too much specifics, but we're seeing an environment which is very supportive to pricing going into 2026. Our negotiations with customers are going well, and we're very happy with where we are trending. Remember.

Corinne Blanchard (Analyst)

Thank you.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

The vast majority of this business is multi-year, right? There's some inertia. On average, we like to say we may be renegotiating every year 20% of our business, 20%-25% of our business. Whatever change there is, upside or downside to price, is kind of amortized over several years. At the moment, it's reasonably positive.

Corinne Blanchard (Analyst)

That is very helpful. Thank you.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We have no further questions, so I'll hand it back to Jean-Marc for some closing comments.

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO)

Thank you, everybody, again for your interest in Constellium. We are happy with the progress we're making, and we look forward to an exciting second half. I look forward to updating you on our progress in October. Thank you very much. Have a good day.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.