Executive Summary

CSTM delivered a stronger-than-expected Q3: revenue $2.2B (+20% YoY), net income $88M, and Adjusted EBITDA $235M; ex metal price lag, Adjusted EBITDA was $196M, a third‑quarter record .
Results beat Street: EPS $0.56 vs $0.36 consensus*, revenue $2.17B vs $2.10B consensus*, and EBITDA $236M vs $175M consensus*; even ex metal lag, EBITDA ($196M) exceeded consensus by ~12% . Values with * from S&P Global.
2025 outlook raised: Adjusted EBITDA (ex metal price lag) to $670–$690M (from $620–$650M in July; $600–$630M in April) while keeping FCF >$120M; leverage improved to 3.1x with a goal of <3.0x by year‑end .
Strategic/tactical drivers: packaging strength and improved Muscle Shoals operations, net customer compensation in AS&I, and tariff mitigation; scrap spread benefits to be more visible in Q4, while automotive demand and Europe remain weak .
Potential stock catalysts: beat-and-raise quarter and CEO transition (COO Ingrid Joerg to become CEO on Jan 1, 2026) could support sentiment; management reiterated 2028 targets ($900M adj. EBITDA ex lag; $300M FCF) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record third‑quarter performance on an ex‑metal‑lag basis: Adjusted EBITDA $196M, up 50% YoY ex lag; shipments +6% YoY to 373kt; revenue +20% YoY to $2.2B .
Segment execution: A&T Adjusted EBITDA +67% YoY to $90M on higher TID volumes and better pricing/mix; P&ARP +14% YoY to $82M on packaging strength and Muscle Shoals improvements; AS&I +371% YoY to $33M aided by net customer compensation and flood recovery .
Management actions: Raised 2025 guidance; reiterated long‑term 2028 targets; continued buybacks ($25M for 1.7M shares in Q3) while bringing leverage down to 3.1x .
- “We are raising our guidance for 2025… Adjusted EBITDA excluding the non‑cash impact of metal price lag in the range of $670 million to $690 million and free cash flow in excess of $120 million.”

What Went Wrong

Automotive weakness persists in both regions, pressuring volumes and mix; management remains cautious on auto outlook into year‑end .
Europe broadly weak across several end markets; management sees stabilization at low levels in specialties, but recovery timing remains uncertain .
Tariff headwinds: tariff‑related costs (notably Canadian extrusions into U.S.) and higher operating costs in P&ARP and AS&I; the company is mitigating via pass‑throughs and expects net positive over time .

Financial Results

Headline Metrics vs Prior Quarter and Street

Metric	Q2 2025	Q3 2025 Actual	Q3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($B)	$2.103	$2.2	$2.098*
Net Income ($M)	$36	$88	—
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$146	$235	$175.3*
Adj. EBITDA ex metal lag ($M)	$159 (ex‑lag)	$196 (ex‑lag)	—
Metal price lag ($M)	$(13)	$39	—
EPS ($)	$0.25 (diluted)	$0.56*	$0.36*

YoY highlights (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024): revenue +20%, net income $88M vs $8M, Adjusted EBITDA $235M vs $127M, metal price lag +$39M vs $(5)M .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Segment	Shipments (kt) Q3’24	Shipments (kt) Q3’25	Revenue ($M) Q3’24	Revenue ($M) Q3’25	Seg. Adj. EBITDA ($M) Q3’24	Seg. Adj. EBITDA ($M) Q3’25
Aerospace & Transportation (A&T)	48	50	421	481	54	90
Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products (P&ARP)	261	275	1,090	1,307	72	82
Automotive Structures & Industry (AS&I)	42	48	323	409	7	33

Notes: A&T benefited from higher TID shipments and pricing/mix; P&ARP saw packaging growth and Muscle Shoals improvements; AS&I uplift included net customer compensation and flood recovery .

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPI	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Shipments (kt)	—	384	373
Cash from Operations ($M)	65	114	99
Free Cash Flow ($M)	(39)	41	30
Net Debt ($M)	1,745	1,895	1,891
Liquidity ($M)	873	841	831
Leverage (Net debt / LTM Seg. Adj. EBITDA)	2.7x	3.6x	3.1x
Share repurchases	—	$35M; 3.4M shares	$25M; 1.7M shares
Safety RCR (cases per 1M hrs)	—	2.6 (Q2)	1.7 (Q3); YTD 1.8

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA (ex metal lag)	FY 2025	$620–$650M (Jul 29)	$670–$690M (Oct 29)	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA (ex metal lag)	FY 2025	$600–$630M (Apr 30)	$670–$690M (Oct 29)	Raised vs Apr
Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	>$120M (Apr/Jul)	>$120M (Oct)	Maintained
Capex	FY 2025	~$325M (Jul)	~$325M (Oct)	Maintained
Cash Interest	FY 2025	~$125M (Jul)	~$125M (Oct)	Maintained
Cash Taxes	FY 2025	~$45M (Jul)	~$45M (Oct)	Maintained
Leverage	YE 2025	At/below 3.0x (Jul)	Below 3.0x (Oct)	Maintained
Long-term Targets	2028	$900M adj. EBITDA ex lag; $300M FCF (Apr/Jul)	Reiterated (Oct)	Maintained

Drivers of the raise include: stronger Q3, customer compensation, accounting revision benefit (~$12M H1), tariff mitigations, and expected scrap spread tailwind in Q4; offset by Europe/auto weakness and some order volatility from a competitor plant fire .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Tariffs & Mitigation	Tariffs a fluid net opportunity; ~$20M gross headwind in 2025 from Canadian extrusions; pass‑throughs underway; U.S. pricing increases; scrap excluded; net benefit expected over time .	Exposure “manageable”; net positive when considering improved scrap spreads, domestic demand/pricing; all known impacts in guidance .	Improving visibility; mitigations in place; net positive reinforced.
Scrap Spreads	Tight in 2024/early 2025; limited H1 benefit; expected improvement H2 .	Q3 little benefit vs LY; widening spreads to aid Q4; impact per quarter could be $15–$20M in current environment; likely nearer $20M given Midwest premium if conditions persist .	Turning tailwind in Q4 and into 2026.
Packaging & Muscle Shoals	Healthy demand; Muscle Shoals stabilization supporting growth .	Continued improvement; packaging strength in NA/EU; P&ARP EBITDA +14% YoY .	Positive execution and secular growth intact.
Automotive	Weak in EU and softening NA; shifting capacity to packaging where possible .	Continued weakness; tariffs add uncertainty; competitor fire creates some short‑term demand shifts but limited net benefit in 2025 .	Persistent headwind near term.
Aerospace	Destocking/slow supply chain; mid‑cycle A&T margin target raised to $1,100/t; near‑term above that .	OEM backlogs high; destocking easing; more optimistic vs three months ago on supply chain recovery timing; margins remain strong on high value mix .	Gradual normalization; favorable mix supporting margins.
Cost Program (Vision 25)	Accelerated actions across operations and SG&A .	Continued cost control cited as a key focus; H&C expense run‑rate ~$45M in 2025 .	Ongoing discipline.
Leadership	—	COO Ingrid Joerg to succeed CEO on Jan 1, 2026; transition plan in place .	Governance continuity; potential strategic continuity.

Management Commentary

“We are mostly local for local… our tariff exposure remains manageable and… current trade policies should be a net positive for us.”
“Adjusted EBITDA… excluding metal price lag… $196 million in the quarter. This is a new third quarter record for us.”
“We are raising our guidance for 2025… Adjusted EBITDA… $670–$690 million and free cash flow in excess of $120 million.”
On scrap spreads: “We still maintain the $15 to $20 million a quarter… trending closer to the 20 than the 15 given the Midwest price… we’ll see most of that next year if the current environment continues.”
On aerospace: “We are more optimistic about a faster path to recovery for the supply chain than we were three months ago.”

Q&A Highlights

Scrap spreads: Limited Q3 benefit; widening spreads expected to provide larger Q4 tailwind, potentially closer to $20M per quarter under current Midwest premium dynamics if sustained .
Customer compensation: AS&I benefited from net customer compensation for underperformance of an auto program, supporting price/mix in Q3 .
Competitor fire: Modest benefit expected, more in 2026 than in 2025 due to supply chain and qualification lags .
Guidance bridge: Accounting revision benefit (~$12M H1), strong Q3 performance, tariff mitigations, and scrap spread trajectory underpin the raise; Europe/auto remain drags .
Aerospace recovery: Signs of supply chain easing; recovery timing could be late 2026 into 2027, but management tone more constructive than prior quarter .

Estimates Context

Metric (Q3 2025)	Actual	Consensus	Surprise
Revenue ($B)	$2.166*	$2.098*	+$0.07B*
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$236*	$175.3*	+$60.7M*
EPS ($)	$0.560*	$0.359*	+$0.201*

Company‑reported Adjusted EBITDA includes a +$39M non‑cash metal price lag; ex‑lag EBITDA was $196M, which still exceeds consensus by ~12% .
Street underappreciated net customer compensation, packaging strength/Muscle Shoals operations, and timing of tariff mitigations; scrap spreads were a limited help in Q3 but set to aid Q4 .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Beat‑and‑raise quarter with broad‑based execution; even excluding metal price lag, EBITDA beat consensus and set a Q3 record, supporting a higher full‑year bar .
Positive mix and price in A&T and AS&I (customer compensation), plus packaging strength and operational improvements at Muscle Shoals, are offsetting auto weakness and tariff costs .
Scrap spreads are turning into a tailwind; the bigger impact should be visible in Q4 and into 2026 if current Midwest premium dynamics persist .
Raised FY25 Adjusted EBITDA (ex‑lag) to $670–$690M with FCF >$120M; leverage trending <3.0x by year‑end improves balance sheet optionality for buybacks and capex .
Aerospace remains structurally attractive with high value mix and improving supply chain; auto remains a near‑term headwind, particularly in Europe, but tariff backdrop and onshoring support domestic demand .
Leadership transition to Ingrid Joerg appears well‑planned and aligned with current strategy; long‑term 2028 targets reiterated .
Near‑term trading: stock likely to respond to magnitude of beat/raise and CEO transition optics; watch Q4 realization of scrap spread benefits and cadence of tariff pass‑throughs .

Additional Context and Q3 Press Releases

Extended partnership with Embraer for high‑performance aluminum solutions, including Airware aluminum‑lithium alloys, reinforcing aero positioning .
Showcased low‑carbon, high‑recycled content automotive solutions at Cenex 2025, supporting sustainability and circularity narrative in AS&I .

Notes:

Primary source documents reviewed include Q3 2025 earnings call transcript and presentation slides; the 8‑K 2.02 earnings press release for Q3 was not available in the document catalog. All financial figures and qualitative commentary are cited to company materials; estimate figures marked with * are from S&P Global.

CONSTELLIUM SE (CSTM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary