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    Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 9, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$4.66Last close (Aug 1, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$4.22Open (Aug 2, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-0.44(-9.44%)
    • Early signs of recovery in the utility end markets, with OEC on rent increasing by over $30 million in July and utilization up by about 200 basis points, suggesting a potential rebound in the second half of 2024 and into 2025.
    • Increased quoting activity in the transmission business, a leading indicator of future demand, indicates that transmission projects are starting to advance, potentially boosting revenues in the coming quarters.
    • Well-positioned to benefit from long-term secular growth drivers such as AI-driven data center development and electrification trends, which will require significant transmission infrastructure investment, leading to increased demand for Custom Truck's products and services.
    • The APS segment experienced significant gross margin contraction, impacted by decreased rentals of tools and accessories and higher material costs, with only a slight improvement expected in the second half of the year.
    • The company is not expecting significant reduction in net leverage levels and will not achieve its net leverage target of 3.5x this year, which may affect its financial flexibility.
    • The company is curbing growth CapEx due to a lack of meaningful uptick in utility demand, potentially impacting future revenue growth as they will not invest heavily to grow the rental fleet without increased demand in the utility market.
    1. Guidance and EBITDA Outlook Q: Does revised guidance assume H2 EBITDA step-up? A: We're comfortable with our guidance range. To reach the high end, trends like July's $35 million increase in OEC on rent and 200 basis points utilization improvement need to continue. Q4 is typically our strongest quarter, ranging from just under 20% to almost 40% higher than other quarters historically.

    2. Leverage Target Q: What's the year-end leverage target given lower cash flow? A: We don't expect leverage to significantly change from current levels. There will be a modest decrease, but we won't reach the previous target of 3.5x by year-end.

    3. 2025 CapEx Outlook Q: Should we model higher CapEx in 2025 if demand rebounds? A: While we haven't provided guidance for 2025, we expect to return to normal CapEx levels discussed previously. If demand returns faster, we can react quickly to grow the fleet.

    4. Utility Market Recovery Q: Can you elaborate on utility T&D markets improving? A: OEC on rent is up over $30 million already in July, primarily in utility, improving utilization by about 200 basis points. Transmission shows increased quoting activity; distribution is normalizing but has ticked down.

    5. Rental Rate Growth Q: What's expected for rental rate growth this year? A: Rental rates have been relatively flat at 40%-41% OEC on rent yield over the past 4-5 quarters and are not expected to materially change for the rest of the year.

    6. APS Margin Decline Q: Why did APS gross margins contract year-over-year? A: Rental was down, and we're prioritizing rental fleet over third-party service, negatively impacting margins. Cost increases also affected margins. We expect similar performance in the second half, with possible slight improvement.

    7. TES Margin Outlook Q: Why were TES gross margins lower, and what's the outlook? A: TES gross margins are within our expected range of 16%-18%. Q1 and Q2 of last year were exceptionally strong. We expect margins to remain consistent within this range.

    8. ERS Equipment Sales Volatility Q: How should we think about ERS equipment sales in H2? A: ERS equipment sales are volatile. Q1 and Q2 were unusually low at around $35 million per quarter versus a historical average of $60 million. We expect meaningful growth in the second half, with Q4 typically being the strongest.

    9. Election Impact Q: Does Q4 or Q1'25 depend on election results? A: We're not making assumptions about the election outcome. Smaller customers are awaiting borrowing cost reductions and certainty around the election. Historically, we've seen a meaningful uptick in Q4 after elections.

    10. Future Demand from Data Centers and EVs Q: Can demand be met without increased use of your services? A: We don't see that happening. Demand from data centers, AI, and electrification are great tailwinds for us. We're beginning to see this build in the latter half of this year and are optimistic about 2025.

    11. CapEx Plan and Asset Age Q: Why hold off on CapEx and let assets age? A: We're holding back on growth CapEx if utility demand doesn't increase, keeping fleet age at about 3.5 years. We'll continue swapping and replacing assets and invest in growth areas like specialty vocational trucks.

    12. Low End of Guidance Range Q: Does the low end of guidance assume no recovery? A: Seasonal Q4 strength is expected. We anticipate sequential improvement in Q3 with low-to-mid single-digit growth. The low end assumes a modest recovery in OEC on rent; the high end assumes an accelerated trend like in July.

    13. Rental Lead Times Q: What's the lead time for equipment rentals? A: Lead times vary. Some activities are immediate, and we're quoting and shipping now, which contributed to increased OEC on rent in July. Others are planned for later this fall.