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CARNIVAL PLC (CUK)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q2 2025 quarter: revenues $6.33B, GAAP diluted EPS $0.42, adjusted EPS $0.35; operating income $934M and adjusted EBITDA $1.51B set second‑quarter records, with net income up ~$475M YoY and adjusted net income more than tripled .
  • Results beat Wall Street: adjusted EPS $0.35 vs S&P Global consensus $0.24*, and revenue $6.33B vs $6.21B*, driven by stronger ticket pricing, robust onboard revenue, and favorable expense timing .
  • Full‑year 2025 guidance raised: net yields +5.0% in constant currency, adjusted net income +>40% YoY, adjusted EBITDA ≈$6.9B; Q3 2025 guide includes net yields +3.5% (cc) and adj. EPS ≈$1.30 .
  • Strategic catalysts: exceeded 2026 SEA Change targets 18 months early (adj. ROIC >12.5% TTM; adj. EBITDA per ALBD +52% since 2023), upsized revolver to $4.5B, S&P and Fitch upgrades to BB+ (stable/positive) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Pricing power and demand: “more than tripling adjusted net income driven by record net yields (in constant currency) and strong close‑in demand,” with net yields +6.4% YoY (cc), 200 bps above March guide .
  • Cost and efficiency execution: fuel consumption per ALBD −6.3% YoY and cruise costs per ALBD −0.3% YoY; adj. cruise costs ex‑fuel per ALBD +3.5% YoY but better than guidance on timing .
  • Balance sheet progress: refinanced ~$7B YTD at better rates; revolver upsized to $4.5B; net debt/adj. EBITDA improved to 3.7x; credit upgrades to BB+ (S&P stable; Fitch positive) .

What Went Wrong

  • Unit costs excluding fuel rose: adjusted cruise costs ex‑fuel per ALBD +3.5% YoY in Q2, and Q3 guide +7% YoY ex‑fuel (cc) due to Celebration Key opening, higher advertising, lower 2025 capacity, and lapping 2024 one‑offs .
  • Interest expense still heavy despite progress: Q2 net interest expense −$341M; FY 2025 interest expected ≈$1.38B (guidance table) .
  • Transcript unavailable in catalog for detailed Q&A: limits visibility on granular risks, pricing dispersion, and regional performance narratives (no earnings call transcript found in tool results).

Financial Results

Core P&L vs prior quarters and consensus

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q2 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Billions)$5.94 $5.81 $6.33 $6.21*
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$561 $543 $934 —
Net Income ($USD Millions)$303 $(78) $565 —
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $)$0.23 $(0.06) $0.42 —
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$186 $174 $470 —
Adjusted EPS (diluted, $)$0.14 $0.13 $0.35 $0.24*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.22 $1.21 $1.51 —
Operating Margin (%)10.0% 9.3% 14.8% —
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)20.6% 20.7% 23.8% —

Notes: Operating and EBITDA margins computed from cited revenues and operating income/adjusted EBITDA.
Estimates marked with * are values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and unit economics

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
ALBDs (Millions)23.9 23.6 24.2
PCDs (Millions)24.6 24.3 25.3
Occupancy (%)103% 103% 104%
Net Yields per ALBD ($)$190.53 $184.95 $200.07
Adjusted Cruise Costs ex‑Fuel per ALBD ($)$112.81 (FY) $113.76 $117.45
Fuel Cost per Metric Ton (ex‑EUA, $)$618 $643 $614
Fuel Consumption per 1,000 ALBDs (MT)30.4 30.3 29.9
Customer Deposits ($USD Billions, total)$6.78 $7.26 $8.53

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)

MetricActualConsensusBeat / (Miss)
Adjusted EPS (diluted, $)$0.35 $0.2409*+$0.11
Revenue ($USD Billions)$6.33 $6.21*+$0.12

Estimates marked with * are values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Mar 21, 2025)Current Guidance (Jun 24, 2025)Change
Net Yields (constant currency)FY 2025≈+4.7% ≈+5.0% Raised
Adjusted Cruise Costs ex‑Fuel per ALBD (cc)FY 2025≈+3.8% ≈+3.6% Lowered
Adjusted Net Income ($)FY 2025>+30% YoY >+40% YoY; ≈$2.69B in guidance table Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025≈$6.7B ≈$6.9B Raised
Net Yields (cc)Q3 2025NA≈+3.5% YoY NA
Adjusted Cruise Costs ex‑Fuel per ALBD (cc)Q3 2025NA≈+7.0% YoY NA
Adjusted EPS (diluted, $)Q3 2025NA≈$1.30 NA
Interest Expense (net, $B)FY 2025≈$1.40 ≈$1.38 Lowered
D&A ($B)FY 2025≈$2.76 ≈$2.79 Slightly Raised
Fuel Expense incl. EUA ($B)FY 2025≈$1.88 ≈$1.88 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: Q2 2025 earnings call transcript not available in the document catalog; themes below reflect quarter press materials.

TopicQ4 2024 (Dec)Q1 2025 (Mar)Q2 2025 (Jun)Trend
Pricing/YieldsNet yields +6.7% (cc); record booked position for 2025 Net yields +7.3% (cc); beat December guide by 270 bps Net yields +6.4% (cc); beat March guide by 200 bps Sustained strength
Demand/Bookings2025 price & occupancy at all‑time highs 2026 booking volumes at all‑time highs 2026 cumulative position in line with 2025 record levels, at historical high prices (cc) Robust, further‑out
Cost DisciplineAdj. cruise costs ex‑fuel per ALBD +7.4% YoY in Q4 Adj. cruise costs ex‑fuel per ALBD +1.0% YoY; better than guide Q2 +3.5% YoY; Q3 guide +7% on Celebration Key, ads, capacity effects Mixed (near‑term upward)
Fuel & EfficiencyLNG fleet expansion; shore power leadership —Fuel per ALBD −6.3% YoY; better than guide by ~300 bps Improving efficiency
Balance Sheet/LeverageNet debt/adj. EBITDA 4.3x; plan to cut interest >$200M in 2025 vs 2024 Refi $5.5B, $145M annual interest savings Refi ~$7B YTD; net debt/adj. EBITDA 3.7x; revolver to $4.5B; ratings to BB+ De‑leveraging
Sustainability/SEA ChangeOn track for >20% GHG intensity reduction by 2026 Expect ROIC ~12% in 2025 Exceeded SEA Change targets 18 months early; ROIC >12.5% TTM Ahead of plan

Management Commentary

  • CEO tone on momentum and guidance: “Our amazing team delivered yet another phenomenal quarter… record net yields (in constant currency) and strong close‑in demand… we remain on track for a strong 4 percent net yield growth in the second half… enabled us to raise full year guidance again” .
  • Strategy and SEA Change: “Already exceeded our 2026 SEA Change financial targets a full 18 months early… increasing adjusted EBITDA per ALBD by 52 percent and more than doubling adjusted ROIC to over 12.5 percent… [and] cut carbon intensity by 20 percent from 2019 levels” .
  • CFO on capital structure: “Refinancing nearly $7 billion of debt already this year at favorable rates… extended and upsized our revolver capacity by 50 percent… within one notch of achieving investment grade ratings with both S&P and Fitch” .

Q&A Highlights

The Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in the document catalog; detailed Q&A themes, guidance clarifications, and tone shifts cannot be extracted from primary sources at this time (no earnings‑call‑transcript found in tool search).

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus vs actual (Q2 2025): Adjusted EPS $0.35 vs $0.2409*; revenue $6.33B vs $6.21B*, indicating a clear beat on both earnings and sales, primarily on ticket pricing, onboard spend, and favorable timing of expenses between quarters .
  • Estimate implications: FY 2025 guidance raised on yields and EBITDA (to ≈$6.9B), with adj. net income now >$2.69B; models likely move higher on yield trajectory and interest expense reductions, partially offset by elevated Q3 unit costs for Celebration Key ramp .

Estimates marked with * are values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Pricing power durable: Net yields beat guidance again; strong close‑in demand and onboard revenue underpin upside to per‑diem trajectory .
  • Earnings quality improved: Operating margin expanded >500 bps YoY; adjusted EBITDA margin up ~300 bps YoY, well above 2019 levels .
  • Guidance reset higher: FY 2025 adj. EBITDA ≈$6.9B and adj. net income >$2.69B; Q3 adj. EPS ≈$1.30 provides near‑term trading anchor .
  • De‑leveraging continues: Net debt/adj. EBITDA improved to 3.7x; ratings upgrades and revolver upsizing add flexibility—supportive for equity risk premium compression .
  • Near‑term cost headwinds: Expect Q3 adj. cruise costs ex‑fuel per ALBD +7% YoY (cc) on Celebration Key ramp and higher advertising; watch cost discipline in H2 .
  • Strategic moat: Early achievement of SEA Change targets (ROIC and EBITDA per ALBD) signals structural margin uplift and better capital efficiency, supporting medium‑term thesis .
  • Positioning: Strong bookings and record deposits ($8.53B) reduce revenue risk; catalysts include Celebration Key opening (July 2025), further debt refinancing, and potential additional rating upgrades .
Document sources: Q2 2025 8‑K press release and exhibits **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:0]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:1]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:2]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:3]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:4]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:5]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:6]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:7]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:8]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:9]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:10]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:11]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000047_a20252qearningsrelease8-k.htm:12]**; Q1 2025 8‑K press release and exhibits **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:0]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:1]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:2]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:3]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:4]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:5]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:6]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:7]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:8]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:9]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:10]** **[1125259_0000815097-25-000019_a20251qearningsrelease8-k.htm:11]**; Q4 2024 8‑K press release and exhibits **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:0]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:1]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:2]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:3]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:4]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:5]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:6]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:7]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:8]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:9]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:10]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:11]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:12]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:13]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:14]** **[1125259_0000815097-24-000078_a20244qearningsrelease8-k.htm:15]**. 
Estimates: Values retrieved from S&P Global (GetEstimates).