Executive Summary

Q4 2023 revenue was $168.2M, essentially flat sequentially (+0.2%) but down 7.6% year-over-year, while net loss from continuing operations was $(43.5)M or $(1.05) diluted EPS; credit trends improved as NCO% fell to 16.5% from 17.7% in Q3 and 20.9% in Q4’22 .
Management cancelled the earnings call and launched a consent solicitation after electing not to make Feb 1 interest payments on its 1.5L/2.0L notes; lenders granted a short-term waiver on related 1.0L events of default as CURO pursues a comprehensive restructuring with stakeholders .
Operating expenses improved by $20.4M year-over-year and $3.0M quarter-over-quarter; average gross receivables grew to $1.275B with NIM post charge-offs (excl. recourse interest) at 26.6% .
2024 guidance was updated: EOP receivables growth trimmed to 7–9% (from 8–12% prior), operating expenses guided to $325–$340M, NIM post charge-offs (excl. recourse interest) maintained at 26–28%, and quarterly unrestricted cash range reduced to $25–$90M (from $90–$140M prior); outlook hinges on refinancing/advance rate improvements and liquidity actions .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Credit quality improved: NCO rate fell to 16.5% (−120 bps q/q and −440 bps y/y) driven by credit tightening, servicing optimization, and a mix shift toward larger-balance, longer-duration loans .
- Operating efficiency: Operating expenses declined $20.4M y/y to $91.2M and $3.0M q/q; OpEx ratio improved to 28.6% (−180 bps q/q and −770 bps y/y) including $7.6M non-recurring charges in Q4 .
- Portfolio growth: Gross loans receivable increased 3.3% sequentially to $1.296B; average gross receivables reached $1.275B .
- Management tone: “We showed improvement in our delinquency and charge-off performance, as well as a marked reduction in our operating expenses… engaged in constructive dialogue with our lenders to strengthen our balance sheet” (CEO Doug Clark) .
What Went Wrong
- Liquidity/covenant stress: Potential minimum liquidity covenant breach under the 1.0L credit agreement and missed Feb 1 note interest payments led to cross-defaults and required a waiver; the company launched a consent solicitation for the 1.5L notes .
- Revenue pressure: Total revenue fell 7.6% y/y to $168.2M due to mix shift to lower-yield, higher-credit quality, longer-term loans (though sequential revenue was flat) .
- Elevated interest burden: Q4 interest expense was $58.3M (up from $41.2M in Q4’22) contributing to a $(42.4)M pre-tax loss from continuing operations .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2023	Q3 2023	Q4 2023
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)	$167.0 (Direct Lending segment)	$167.9 (continuing ops)	$168.2 (continuing ops)
Diluted EPS – Continuing Ops ($)	n/a (not presented on continuing-ops basis)	$(0.81)	$(1.05)
Net Charge-off Rate (%)	18.8% (Direct Lending)	17.7%	16.5%
OpEx Ratio (%)	30.0% (Direct Lending)	30.4%	28.6%

Notes: Q2 2023 continuing operations exclude Canada POS only in later periods following the Flexiti sale; Q2 total revenue shown for Direct Lending to aid comparability; Q2 EPS is not shown on a continuing-ops basis .

Segment/Geography breakdown (Q4 2023):

Q4 2023 ($USD Millions)	U.S.	Canada	Total
Revenue	$89	$79	$168
Net Charge-offs	$29	$24	$53
Allowance Build/(Release)	$5	$0	$5
Net Revenue	$56	$55	$110
Gross Loans Receivable (EOP)	$775	$521	$1,296

Key KPIs:

NIM post charge-offs (excl. recourse interest): 26.6% in Q4 vs 27.1% in Q3; decline driven by lower yields (mix shift), higher non-recourse debt, partially offset by lower NCOs .
Average Gross Receivables: $1.275B in Q4 vs $1.241B in Q3 .
Liquidity and capacity: $342M at Q4-end; unrestricted cash $85M at 12/31/23 .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
EOP Receivables Growth	FY 2024	8–12% (Q3 deck)	7–9% (Q4 deck)	Lowered
NIM post CO (excl. recourse interest)	FY 2024	26–28% (Q3 deck)	26–28% (Q4 deck)	Maintained
Operating Expenses	FY 2024	Maintain 4Q23 run rate (implied)	$325–$340M	Clarified (explicit range)
Unrestricted Cash (quarterly)	FY 2024	$90–$140M	$25–$90M	Lowered

Additional context: Q3 provided 4Q23 targets (EOP receivables $1.26–$1.28B; revenue $165–$175M; NCO% 16.5–18.5%; OpEx $85–$95M); subsequent Q4 preliminary actuals landed within/near ranges for revenue ($168.2M) and NCO% (16.5%) and OpEx ($91.2M) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: Q4 2023 earnings call was cancelled due to the consent solicitation and lender discussions; themes below reflect Q2–Q3 narrative evolution and current period disclosures.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
Technology/Platforms	Completed U.S. conversion to a single loan management system (Q3); continued investment in technology infrastructure (Q3)	Continued to scale data/technology capabilities (CEO)	Ongoing modernization and scalability focus
Credit/Underwriting	Tightening underwriting, servicing optimization; improving NCOs/delinquencies (Q2/Q3)	NCO% improved to 16.5%; allowance stable vs portfolio growth	Sustained improvement with mix toward higher-quality loans
Macro/Liquidity/Leverage	Liquidity and capacity of $399M in Q2; $264M in Q3; rising interest expense post term loan (May-23)	Liquidity/covenant strain; missed note interest payments; waiver/consent solicitation; liquidity and capacity $342M	Heightened financing risk despite available capacity
Portfolio Mix	Shift toward larger-balance, longer-duration loans lowers yields but improves credit (Q3)	Same mix shift cited; revenue pressured, credit benefits	Mix shift persists; balancing yield vs credit
Strategic Focus	Sale of Flexiti; focus on Direct Lending in U.S./Canada (Q3)	Working with lenders on comprehensive restructuring to strengthen balance sheet	Pivot to de-leveraging/restructuring alongside core focus

Management Commentary

CEO Doug Clark (Q4 press release): “We showed improvement in our delinquency and charge-off performance, as well as a marked reduction in our operating expenses… we are engaged in constructive dialogue with our lenders to strengthen our balance sheet and better position CURO for growth and success.”
On credit/mix (Q4 release/presentation): Improvement in NCOs tied to credit tightening, servicing optimization, and continued product mix shift to larger-balance, longer-duration loans .
Liquidity outlook (Q4 deck): “Updated Full Year 2024” includes $25–$90M quarterly unrestricted cash balance and an expectation of a step up in facility advance rates as part of 2024 refinancing .

Q&A Highlights

There was no Q4 earnings call or Q&A; CURO cancelled the call in conjunction with its consent solicitation and lender discussions .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus from S&P Global/Capital IQ was unavailable for CURO (tool mapping missing), so we could not compare Q4 results versus consensus. We attempted to retrieve “Primary EPS Consensus Mean” and “Revenue Consensus Mean” for Q4 2023, Q3 2023, and Q2 2023 but no S&P Global mapping was returned for CURO; therefore, estimate-based comparisons are not presented [GetEstimates error].

Key Takeaways for Investors

Credit normalization is progressing: NCO% improved to 16.5% and delinquencies stabilized even as receivables grew; this underpins margin resilience despite lower yields from mix shift .
Expense discipline is visible: OpEx fell $20.4M y/y and $3.0M q/q, with the OpEx ratio down to 28.6% despite $7.6M of non-recurring charges in Q4 .
Liquidity and refinancing are the swing factors: Potential covenant breaches and missed note interest payments required waivers and triggered a consent solicitation; management is negotiating a comprehensive restructuring—these outcomes will likely drive stock volatility near term .
Growth tempered, focus on stability: 2024 EOP receivables growth trimmed to 7–9% and quarterly unrestricted cash guidance cut to $25–$90M, reflecting a more conservative liquidity stance while maintaining targeted NIM post charge-offs (excl. recourse interest) at 26–28% .
Watch catalysts: any refinancing/advance rate “step up,” resolution of consent/waivers, and confirmation of 2024 operating expense range vs prior run-rate could reframe solvency/liquidity risk and path to profitability .
Trend analysis: Revenue is flat q/q but down y/y on product mix; losses persist due to high interest expense; the bull case hinges on de-leveraging and funding cost relief, while the bear case centers on liquidity events and restructuring uncertainty .

CURO Group Holdings Corp. (CURO)·Q4 2023 Earnings Summary