CI
CapsoVision, Inc (CV)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 delivered 19% YoY revenue growth to $3.538M, but revenue was below Wall Street consensus ($3.684M), and diluted EPS of $(0.17) missed the $(0.125) consensus; gross margin was 54% vs. 55% in Q2 and 56% in Q3 2024 . Revenue Consensus Mean: $3.684M*; Primary EPS Consensus Mean: $(0.125)*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Management advanced strategic catalysts: submitted Breakthrough Device Designation (BDD) application to FDA for pancreatic screening (Nov 6), progressed CapsoCam Colon Gen-1 (under review) and began Gen-2 pivotal enrollment; AI module submission for CapsoCam Plus now targeted by year-end 2025 due to biostat resource constraints .
- Operating expenses rose to $9.933M, including a one-time $1.6M Canon CMOS development charge; CFO clarified this should be removed from forward R&D run-rate .
- Commercial KPIs strengthened: ~8,336 patients in Q3 (+20% YoY), new accounts +31% YoY, hospital systems customers +26% YoY; U.S. salesforce at 26 reps and 7 managers/trainers .
- Near-term stock narrative hinges on regulatory milestones (BDD decision, AI module clearance timeline, Colon program progress) and execution on commercial momentum despite near-term margin and OpEx pressure .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- 19% YoY revenue growth to $3.538M, driven by higher CapsoCam Plus capsule sales; gross profit rose to $1.914M .
- Strategic pipeline progress: FDA BDD application submitted for pancreatic cancer screening; Colon Gen-1 under review; Gen-2 pivotal enrollment started with enhanced optics/AI .
- Commercial traction: ~8,336 patients in Q3 (+20% YoY), new accounts +31% YoY, hospital systems customers +26% YoY; management emphasized cloud-based workflow and in-house AI competency as differentiators .
Selected management quotes:
- “We delivered a strong third quarter… submission for Breakthrough Device Designation… underscores our commitment…” .
- “We currently plan to submit… AI… to the FDA by year-end 2025… slight delay due to resource constraints…” .
- “Our Gen-1… is currently under FDA review, and we have begun enrolling patients in our pivotal study for the Gen-2 capsule… submission in Q2 2026… clearance in Q4 2026” .
What Went Wrong
- Revenue missed consensus by ~$0.145M (−3.9%) and diluted EPS missed by $0.045; gross margin compressed to 54% vs. 55% in Q2 and 56% YoY . Revenue Consensus Mean: $3.684M*; Primary EPS Consensus Mean: $(0.125)*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Operating expenses increased to $9.933M, including $1.6M R&D tied to Canon CMOS development; net loss widened to $(7.921) vs. $(5.794) YoY .
- AI module submission timing slipped from late Sep/early Oct to year-end 2025 due to biostatistician constraints, shifting anticipated commercialization to second half next year .
Financial Results
Estimates vs. Actuals
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
KPIs
Notes: Q1 2025 documents were not available in the document set; prior period trend comparisons use Q2 2025 and Q3 2024 where relevant.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered a strong third quarter… submission for Breakthrough Device Designation… underscores our commitment…” — Johnny Wang, CEO .
- “We currently plan to submit… AI… to the FDA by year-end 2025… slight delay… due to resource constraints from our third-party biostatisticians.” — Johnny Wang .
- “Our Gen-1… is currently under FDA review, and we have begun enrolling patients in our pivotal study for the Gen-2 capsule… submit in Q2 2026… potential clearance in Q4 2026.” — Johnny Wang .
- “Net loss was $7.9 million… We ended the quarter with $17.8 million in cash and equivalents… R&D expenses for [Canon]… were $1.6 million.” — David Garcia, SVP Finance .
- “Think of [the $1.6M Canon R&D] as one-time in nature for Q3. Going forward, you can take that out.” — David Garcia .
Q&A Highlights
- AI module timing: FDA submission shifted to year-end 2025; expected 3–6 month review with market availability in 2H next year .
- R&D expense normalization: $1.6M Canon-related R&D in Q3 is one-time; remove from forward run-rate .
- Pancreatic feasibility: Prior small study (~20 subjects) observed both cancers present (2/2), informing pursuit of BDD and pivotal strategy .
- Imaging sensor roadmap: Pancreas pivotal to proceed with Toshiba sensor + new optics; Canon CMOS expected 2026 readiness, integrating in 2027 products .
- Salesforce: Maintain 26 territory managers and 7 managers/trainers; add two U.S. territories in 2026 (Florida, NY metro) .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025: Revenue $3.538M vs consensus $3.6835M* (miss), EPS $(0.17) vs $(0.125)* (miss). Hinted drivers include margin compression (54%) and elevated OpEx tied to R&D and public company costs .
- Q2 2025: Revenue $3.315M vs $3.2465M* (beat); EPS $(2.02) vs $(0.11)* (miss), noting unusual comparability due to pre-IPO share base .
- Forward revisions likely to incorporate delayed AI module submission and 2H 2026 commercialization, and normalized R&D spend post-Canon one-time .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue growth remained robust (+19% YoY), but Q3 was a modest revenue and EPS miss versus consensus amid gross margin compression and one-time R&D costs; watch for margin recovery and OpEx normalization post-Canon charge .
- Regulatory catalysts are central to the near-term narrative: BDD submission for pancreatic screening completed; AI module submission now year-end; Colon Gen-1 review and Gen-2 pivotal/clearance milestones in 2026 .
- Commercial KPIs strengthen the base: increased patients, new accounts, and hospital adoption, supported by cloud-based workflow and CPT 91110 reimbursement .
- Cash position improved to $17.8M following IPO, providing runway to fund clinical and regulatory programs; monitor cash burn normalization as one-time R&D rolls off .
- Expect estimate adjustments: consensus likely to push out AI-driven revenue inflection to 2H 2026 and reflect gross margin trajectory and OpEx mix; any BDD progress could be a positive sentiment catalyst .
- Execution risks include regulatory timelines (FDA review), sensor integration path (Canon CMOS cadence), and maintaining growth while controlling OpEx as a new public company .
- Trading lens: stock likely sensitive to FDA updates (AI module, Colon, BDD), evidence of margin stabilization, and sequential revenue cadence into seasonally strong Q4 .