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CV

Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was operationally better but demand-soft: revenue $169.8M (-12.7% y/y), adjusted EBITDA $5.8M (3.4% margin), adjusted EPS $(0.08) as cost actions and working-capital discipline improved sequential profitability and free cash flow ($11.2M) despite weaker end markets .
  • Clear beats vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $169.8M vs $163.5M (+$6.3M), EPS $(0.08) vs $(0.145), EBITDA $5.40M vs $2.19M; all three metrics outperformed consensus, aided by lower SG&A and freight/efficiency gains (see Estimates Context) *.
  • Guidance trimmed/tightened: FY25 revenue to $660–$690M (from $670–$710M) and adjusted EBITDA to $22–$27M (from $25–$30M); introduced ≥$20M FCF target tied to working-capital and capex reductions .
  • Strategic actions in 2024 (portfolio pruning, footprint optimization) and a new 3-segment structure supported sequential adjusted gross margin expansion of ~240–250 bps vs Q4 (10.8% in Q1) and debt reduction ($11.7M net) .
  • Key narrative moving the stock: margin/FCF improvement amid a cyclical trough, juxtaposed with a guidance cut on Class 8 and Con/Ag softness and tariff uncertainty—setup for operating leverage into a 2026 rebound (per ACT forecasts) if execution sustains .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Sequential margin/FCF inflection: adjusted gross margin reached 10.8% (up ~240–250 bps q/q) and FCF improved by $17.7M y/y to $11.2M as expedited freight normalized and inventory fell ~$5M q/q .
    • Cost/footprint actions working: management cited reductions in expedited freight, supplier term optimization, labor flexing, and shifting to lower-cost facilities as drivers of margin expansion .
    • Debt and liquidity: net debt reduced by $11.7M in Q1; liquidity stood at $122.7M at quarter-end (cash $20.2M; $102.5M availability) .
    • Quote: “Our first quarter results demonstrate sequential improvement in margins and free cash flow… streamlin[ing] operations, lower[ing] our cost structure, and driv[ing] cash generation to pay down debt.” — CEO James Ray .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Demand-driven revenue decline: revenue down 12.7% y/y on weaker global Construction & Agriculture and North America Class 8 demand; adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 3.4% from 5.0% y/y .
    • Segment pressure: Electrical Systems and Trim saw double-digit revenue declines and weaker operating income; higher freight and FX in Electrical and freight in Trim weighed on profitability .
    • Guidance cut on macro/tariffs: FY25 revenue and EBITDA ranges lowered; management acknowledged volatile build schedules, tariff pass-through uncertainty and end-market softness persisting through 2025 .
    • Analyst concern: extended downturn in Con/Ag and Class 8 orders (FTR) vs ACT’s 2026 build recovery—management stressed cost flexing and preparedness but visibility limited to ~10–13 weeks .

Financial Results

Consolidated trend (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)$171.8 $163.3 $169.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$4.3 $0.9 $5.8
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)2.5% 0.6% 3.4%
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$(0.03) $(1.04) $(0.09)
Adjusted Diluted EPS$(0.01) $(0.15) $(0.08)

Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($M)$163.5*$169.8 +$6.3
Primary EPS$(0.145)*$(0.08) +$0.065
EBITDA ($M)$2.19*$5.40†+$3.21
  • † EBITDA actual reflects SPGI methodology; company-reported adjusted EBITDA was $5.8M .
  • Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown – Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024

SegmentRevenue Q1’24 ($M)Revenue Q1’25 ($M)YoY %Adjusted Op Inc Q1’24 ($M)Adjusted Op Inc Q1’25 ($M)
Global Seating$80.8 $73.4 (9.1%) $2.8 $2.7
Global Electrical Systems$58.7 $50.5 (14.1%) $1.5 $0.2
Trim Systems & Components$55.1 $45.9 (16.6%) $4.7 $1.6

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Free Cash Flow – Continuing ($M)$(6.5) $0.8 $11.2
Adjusted Gross Margin (%)12.7% 8.3% 10.8%
Net Leverage (T12M adj. EBITDA basis)5.0x
Cash ($M)$26.6 $20.2
Liquidity ($M)$111.0 $122.7

Notes: Management cited ~240–250 bps sequential adjusted gross margin expansion vs Q4 on stabilized operations and reduced expedited freight (call: ~240 bps; release: 250 bps) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Sales ($M)FY 2025$670–$710 $660–$690 Lowered/tightened
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$25–$30 $22–$27 Lowered
Free Cash FlowFY 2025≥$20M Introduced

Management said the low end of ranges contemplates an EPA pushback of 2027 emission standards; focus remains on SG&A alignment, 50% capex cut, ~$20M working-capital reduction (inventory focus) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24, Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
End-market outlook (Class 8)2024 softness; ACT 2024 at 316k; 2025 outlook set; volatile schedules ACT: 2025 down ~23% y/y; 2026 +19% ahead of 2027 emissions; watch for possible EPA timing shift Weak 2025, rebound 2026
Construction & Agriculture2024 down 10–20% ; still soft into Q4 2025 expected down ~5–15% in both; recovery expected 2026 Persistent softness
Tariffs and pass-throughHeightened uncertainty late 2024 Negotiating recoveries; Mexico/Canada under USMCA with some relief; China exposure small (<10% in Seating) Active mitigation
Cost actions/footprint2024 disruptions and inefficiencies; restructuring, Morocco/Mexico additions Reduced expedited freight, labor flexing, lower-cost shifts driving margin expansion Executing, benefits visible
Working capital/FCFPortfolio actions created 2024 cash headwinds $11M FCF in Q1; targeted ≥$20M FY25; $5M inventory reduction in Q1 Improving
Segment reorgAnnounced for 2025 (3 segments) New segments live; clarity on correlation to end markets (Trim most tied to NA Class 8) Implemented

Management Commentary

  • “10.8% adjusted gross margin… a 240 bps sequential improvement… driven by operational efficiency initiatives… divestiture of noncore businesses… conclusion of one-time costs” — CEO James Ray .
  • “Free cash generation of $11 million in the quarter… positions us well for further improvement… in 2025” — CEO James Ray .
  • “Consolidated Q1 revenue $169.8M; adjusted EBITDA $5.8M (3.4% margin)… net loss $(0.09) per diluted share; FCF from continuing operations $11.2M” — CFO Andy Cheung .
  • “We are lowering 2025 revenue to $660–$690M and adjusted EBITDA to $22–$27M; introducing ≥$20M FCF… focus on SG&A, capex down ~50%, ~$20M working-capital reduction” — CEO James Ray .
  • “We will discontinue reporting new business wins… annual guidance is the best way to model near term” — CEO James Ray .
  • Governance note: Board transition announced with Mr. Griffin’s planned retirement and Mr. Johnson expected as Chairman (effective May 15, 2025) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Normalized profitability: management targets ~15% gross margin supporting high single-digit EBITDA margins when demand normalizes and self-help compounds .
  • Tariff exposure and recovery: largest exposure tied to Mexico/Canada with USMCA relief; China content <10% of cost (Seating metals); pursuing customer recovery and supplier mitigations .
  • Leverage and covenants: net leverage 5.0x; amended covenant calc ~4x stepping down; in compliance; evaluating 2027 debt maturity refinancing options during 2025 .
  • Visibility and scheduling: OEM build visibility ~10–13 weeks, firmer within 4–8 weeks; July seasonal downtime expected; company flexing inventory and labor to match .
  • Incremental/decremental: currently ~20% on average, with potential to improve as Electrical utilization rebounds; Trim most correlated to NA Class 8 .
  • Freight costs: one-third of the ~240 bps sequential gross margin improvement from reducing expedited freight tied to 2024 footprint actions .

Estimates Context

Consensus vs actuals (S&P Global; oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024 ConsQ3 2024 ActualQ4 2024 ConsQ4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 ConsQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($M)222.06*171.77 158.36*163.29 163.50*169.80
Primary EPS0.043*$(0.01) $(0.075)*$(0.15) $(0.145)*$(0.08)
EBITDA ($M)9.46*4.05†0.66*(0.81)†2.19*5.40†
  • † EBITDA actuals per SPGI methodology; company-reported adjusted EBITDA were $4.3M (Q3’24), $0.9M (Q4’24), and $5.8M (Q1’25) .
  • Primary EPS “actual” aligns with adjusted EPS disclosures in Q1’25 ( $(0.08) ) .
  • Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: Q1 2025 delivered broad beats vs consensus (revenue/EPS/EBITDA), while Q3/Q4 2024 had notable shortfalls on revenue/EBITDA amid portfolio and operational transitions; estimate paths likely move up on Q1 execution but remain capped by lowered FY25 guide and macro.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential operating improvement is real: adjusted gross margin expanded ~240–250 bps and FCF turned strongly positive ($11.2M), validating structural cost actions and working-capital focus .
  • Broad beat in Q1 vs consensus (revenue, EPS, EBITDA) suggests estimate risk skews upward near-term if execution on SG&A, freight, and footprint efficiencies continues *.
  • Guidance reset frames 2025 as a trough year; 2026 setup attractive if ACT’s rebound materializes and tariff recovery holds—monitor OEM schedule volatility and EPA timing .
  • Segment lens: Trim correlates most with NA Class 8 cycles; Electrical carries FX and Con/Ag exposure but offers margin recovery leverage as utilization improves .
  • Balance sheet trend improving (net debt down $11.7M; liquidity $122.7M); watch leverage vs covenants and 2027 maturities as the company explores refinancing in 2025 .
  • Tactical trade: momentum traders may lean into margin/FCF inflection and consensus beats; risk remains macro/tariff-driven volume and pass-through timing; follow tariff recovery commentary and inventory progress through 1H’25 updates .
  • Medium-term thesis: structurally lower cost base + operating leverage to a 2026 cycle could drive EBITDA margin expansion toward high-single-digit ambitions if 15% gross margin is attained and demand normalizes .

Footnote: Values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.