CA
Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Clearwater delivered a strong first quarter as an integrated company: revenue $205.1M (+77% YoY), non-GAAP gross margin 78.5%, and adjusted EBITDA $70.7M (+84% YoY); both revenue and EBITDA exceeded internal guidance, with revenue also above consensus. Hedge fund demand and margin efficiency from GenAI and integration were key drivers .
- Q4 2025 guidance was set at revenue $216–$217M and adjusted EBITDA $73M (34% margin), and FY 2025 guidance increased to revenue $730–$731M and EBITDA $247M (34% margin), signaling confidence in continued execution and synergy realization .
- KPIs remained durable: ARR $807.5M (+77% YoY), GRR 98%, and NRR 108% (down modestly from 110% in Q2 on lower AUM tailwinds and upsell), with organic ARR accelerating sequentially to $534.4M (+$21.7M QoQ) .
- Catalysts: margin expansion ahead of expectations; new Q4 and raised FY guidance; deleveraging and buybacks; expanding cross-sell in alternatives and risk (70% bookings growth); and 800+ AI agents deployed across >$10T client assets supporting operational transformation .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong beat vs internal guidance: revenue topped the high end by >$1M and EBITDA was >$5M above guide; EBITDA margin expanded to 34.5% (+140 bps YoY) on integration and GenAI efficiency .
- Durable KPIs with broad-based bookings: ARR $807.5M (+77% YoY), GRR 98%, and momentum across insurance, asset owners, asset managers, and hedge funds; two recent seven-figure risk deals highlight Beacon traction .
- GenAI scaled in production: 800+ AI agents delivering 90% reduction in manual reconciliation, 80% faster report generation, and 50% faster financial close; management: “the use of GenAI is continuing to accelerate… we achieved 78.5% gross margins for the integrated business” .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP profitability impacted by integration-related costs and interest: GAAP net loss of $(10.5)M; GAAP gross margin declined YoY to 65.6% (Q3’24: 72.9%) despite non-GAAP margin stability .
- Net revenue retention stepped down to 108% from 110% in Q2, driven by lower AUM tailwind and lighter upsell contributions; hedge fund NRR weighed on consolidated expansion .
- Debt remains elevated post acquisitions ($838.9M total debt), though management is actively deleveraging ($40M repaid in Q3) and repurchasing shares ($8.9M within announced $100M buyback) .
Financial Results
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We achieved 78.5% gross margins for the integrated business… the use of GenAI is continuing to accelerate and is outpacing our own assessment of the margin improvement it can drive.” .
- CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA was $70.7 million… EBITDA margin expanded meaningfully to 34.5%… any question about margin synergy can be put to bed. Now we are squarely focused on growth… We expect fourth quarter EBITDA to be $73 million… full year margin of 34%.” .
- CEO on AI: “Our platform hosts over 800 AI agents… clients have seen 90% reductions in manual reconciliation… 80% faster regulatory reporting, and 50% faster financial close cycles” .
- CFO on retention drivers: “We achieved 98%… gross retention… Net revenue retention rate was 108%… price increases just under 3%, cross-sell just under 3%, upsell just under 3%, AUM and other <1%” .
Q&A Highlights
- Pipeline strength and breadth: Bookings evenly spread across segments; alternatives and risk standout; hedge funds strong in Q2/Q3 with expected Q4 strength .
- ARR dynamics: Organic ARR accelerated sequentially; lumpiness from larger deals and onboarding timing; expectation for Q4 acceleration .
- Enfusion commercial model: New pricing model for all new clients Jan 1, 2026; phased rollout to existing clients in 2026; focus on value alignment rather than headline price hikes .
- AI monetization: GenAI primarily drives margin and operational benefits; monetization embedded via next-gen client reporting and product adoption (e.g., Prism) rather than standalone AI pricing .
- Alternatives penetration: LPX expected across entire insurance base over next few years; MLX and Prism gaining momentum; white space across asset owners .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implications: Consensus appears aligned with the company’s Q4 guide; FY EBITDA guidance moved above consensus, likely prompting upward estimate revisions. The Q3 beat was driven by hedge fund revenue upside and efficiency gains, supporting estimate momentum into Q4/FY .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Strong execution on first integrated quarter: revenue and EBITDA beats vs guidance and consensus; margin expansion ahead of expectations supports near-term sentiment .
- Guidance raised for FY EBITDA and margin to 34%, signaling confidence in synergy capture and GenAI-enabled efficiency; potential for further estimate upgrades .
- Durable KPIs with improving organic ARR and broad-based bookings; watch NRR recovery as AUM tailwinds normalize and cross-sell/upsell ramp into 2026 .
- GenAI at production scale is a differentiator; early client outcomes (90% reconciliation reduction, 80% faster reporting) indicate sustained margin leverage and product monetization via embedded workflows (Prism, risk) .
- Enfusion pricing model shift begins January 2026; expect commercial alignment to support NRR expansion and revenue quality over 2026–2027 .
- Deleveraging underway (2.7x net debt/annualized Q3 EBITDA) and active buybacks ($8.9M in Q3) provide capital allocation flexibility into 2026 .
- Trading lens: Near-term catalysts include Q4 execution in hedge funds and cross-sell momentum in alternatives and risk; medium-term thesis rests on integrated front-to-back platform delivery and NRR path to 115% .