Dana - Q2 2024
July 31, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, and welcome to Dana Incorporated Second Quarter 2024 Financial Webcast and Conference Call. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference facilitator. Please be advised that our meeting today, both the speaker's remarks and Q&A session, will be recorded for replay purposes. For those participants who would like to access the call from the webcast, please reference the URL on our website and sign in as a guest. There will be a question-and-answer period after the speaker's remarks, and we will take questions from the telephone only. To ensure that everyone has an opportunity to participate in today's Q&A, we ask that callers limit themselves to one question at a time. If you would like to ask an additional question, please return to the queue.
At this time, I would like to begin the presentation by turning the call over to Dana's Senior Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Craig Barber. Please go ahead, Mr. Barber.
Craig Barber (Senior Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications)
Good morning. Thank you for joining us today for Dana's second quarter 2024 earnings call. Today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about our expectations for Dana's future performance. Actual results could differ from what we discuss here today. For more details about the factors that could affect future results, please refer to our safe harbor statement found in our public filings and our reports at the SEC. Before we proceed, I invite you to visit our investor website, where you'll find this morning's press release and presentation. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded, and the supporting materials are the property of Dana Incorporated. They may not be recorded, copied, or rebroadcast without our written consent. On the call this morning, we have Jim Kamsickas, Dana Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Timothy Kraus, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
Now, to get started, I'll turn the call over to Jim.
Jim Kamsickas (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Please turn with me to page 4, where I'll discuss the highlights for the second quarter of 2024. Starting on the left side, I'm pleased to report that Dana achieved sales of $2.7 billion in the second quarter, which is just about in line with the second quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $244 million, up over last year, driven by the strength of Dana's core business and end-to-end execution by the Global Dana team, who did an outstanding job implementing ongoing efficiency improvements across all aspects of the organization. Their collective efforts have helped to offset the margin impact of inflation and spending on development of EV products, as well as the slower than expected demand in EV and other markets we serve.
Next, free cash flow was a strong $104 million, down $30 million from this time last year. The difference only due to the timing of payments between the two periods. Moving to the upper right of the slide, under the key highlights, consistent with the past several quarters, company-wide efficiency improvements by the Dana team continue to drive incremental profit. As stated on the page, Dana achieved an extremely strong 73% conversion rate on traditional organic sales in the first half of the year. This performance is well above our historical conversion and positions the company on a trajectory to achieve our full year targets. Moving to the center right of the slide, we saw overall organic sales growth through the first half of the year as demand levels remained relatively stable across most of our end markets.
As I mentioned, we are seeing some weakening demand in EVs, as well as some in our traditional ICE products and programs, particularly in our off-highway end markets. Lastly, with ongoing efficiency improvements and our capital investment improvements, Dana's financial outlook remains on track for the rest of the year. While we're slightly adjusting our sales range, primarily due to the pullback in EV, we are maintaining our profit estimate, while again, raising our free cash flow outlook this quarter to approximately $100 million at the midpoint of the range. This is a 33% increase over our prior guidance. Tim will walk you through this and other financial details and updates later in the presentation. Please turn with me to page 5 for the outlook on the business environment for this fiscal year.
As we stated last quarter, Dana's overall business environment continues to improve compared with last year, driven by a few key factors, which I will provide greater detail. Beginning on the left side of the slide, we continue to see improved company-wide efficiency, supported by greater stability in customer production, which has resulted in lower production cost, improved productivity, and greater efficiency across all areas of the enterprise. Moving next to the supply chain, net commodities are still expected to be a headwind to sales and profit for the remaining of the year, though steel prices are projected to be mostly flat compared with 2023. As input, input costs have declined, we see a reversal of commodity recoveries with customers driving a sales and margin headwind.
Lastly, on the left-hand side of the page, end market demand is showing some pockets of weakness, but Dana continues to benefit from numerous refreshed conquest and new business that is rolling on this year, which is a contributor to our profitable growth. We also continue to benefit from market share gains in our Commercial Vehicle group that are partially offsetting the softening demand for commercial EVs. Moving to the right of the page, let's take a look at our end market outlook, where we are seeing agriculture down compared with last year. Demand for construction and mining equipment should continue trending somewhat flat compared to 2023, though we remain cautious on this market and will continue to monitor demand levels. We also see light vehicle, full frame truck production volumes remaining relatively stable for key recently refreshed vehicle platforms.
However, dealer inventory levels have risen over the quarter. After several years of growth, we are seeing the market for heavy vehicles lower compared with last year, which is expected, and there may be a slight softening in production in the back half of the year. Moving to the bottom of the slide, the key takeaway, takeaways that we are witnessing across our industry show that cost inflation is somewhat moderating, despite labor costs increasing globally. OEM production schedules continue to stabilize, which provides a stable operating environment to achieve production efficiency improvements. Lastly, the light vehicle market overall is navigating a period of demand fluctuation for current EV programs. As we move through the second quarter, we saw demand for commercial EVs temper due to the lower investments by fleets and operators as they work to integrate EV trucks into their vehicle portfolios.
Given the continued investment in EV development by truck manufacturers and ongoing robust quoting activity for future models, we believe this is more of a balance in market demand. We anticipate these nascent technologies, such as fully integrated e-axles and hybrid systems, will drive future adoption. Shifting gears on the next page, as I often do, I'll share some current examples with you of how balanced products and systems approach is enabling Dana to win new traditional, hybrid, and EV business across all of the markets we serve. Slide 6 is a great visual representation that illustrates Dana's ability to deliver class-leading solutions to a variety of applications for ICE, hybrid, and electric vehicle manufacturers across all mobility markets. To compartmentalize this better, we've added three icons to the top of the page, one for ICE, one for hybrid, and one for EV.
Beginning on the left of the page, we start with an ICE vehicle. We're excited to share that the all-new DAF ICE medium-duty truck, featuring Dana's front and rear axles, is launching in Europe in the third quarter of this year. This is conquest business and will be one of our larger commercial vehicle programs in Europe. Our class-leading Spicer axles are specifically designed for medium and heavy-duty markets. They provide a lightweight solution that helps to reduce installation and life cycle cost while improving fuel, fuel cost, reliability, and vehicle maneuverability. Moving to the center of the page, we are providing you with an example of a new hybrid vehicle application. Dana will be supplying our Spicer Electric Torque-Hubs and on-engine generators for use on hybrid boom lifts for multiple major off-highway OEMs. Today, scissor lifts and booms offer true hybrid operation to increase operating flexibility.
Hybrid models employ a combination of two different power sources, a small diesel engine with a generator and a battery drive. These units significantly increase rental flexibility and boost machine utilization by offering the same productive operation as a diesel rough terrain unit, with the added benefit of offering extended operating intervals indoors and under battery power. In addition, their cleaner and quieter performance creates new opportunities for use in work environments where noise and emissions must be restricted, such as some urban and residential spaces. The focus on cleaner, more efficient construction vehicles has become increasingly important for our customers, and our hybrid solutions portfolio is leading the way in accelerating decarbonization across the off-highway industry.
Completing the third part of our balanced portfolio, on the far right of the page, we're excited to share a new pure electric vehicle that Dana will be supplying our Spicer eS9000r e-Axle for the Bollinger B4 light-duty truck. The Bollinger B4 is an all-new, all-electric truck going into production this year. While this vehicle may look similar to a larger heavy-duty vehicle, this lighter-duty truck has a gross vehicle weight rating of 15,000 pounds, which is comparable to a passenger van or a heavy-duty pickup. This vehicle will be unique in that it will be designed to be custom configured by fleets to fit their exact duty cycle needs, making the transition to electric as seamless as possible with minimal downtime. Our eS9000r e-Axle is based on our proven Spicer rear-drive axle platforms, engineered for medium-duty truck and bus applications.
We've engineered this e-propulsion solution with exceptional flexibility so it can be incorporated into a wide spectrum of vehicles, reducing driveline complexity. In fact, we were the first to market with an original generation of this e-axle classification in North America more than four years ago. These three examples showcase the breadth of Dana's highly efficient propulsion and energy management solutions that are being used across all mobility markets around the world. It's not a stretch to say that our products can be found in nearly every type of vehicle that moves, from light and medium trucks and SUVs to commercial vehicles, agricultural machinery, such as tractors, construction equipment, golf carts, and much more. Our full suite of ICE, hybrid, and electric vehicle capabilities enables us to meet the propulsion needs of all of our customers, regardless of demand fluctuations in any particular market.
Turn with me to slide 7, where I will update you regarding the drivers of our significant profit expansion so far this year. Beginning on the left side of the page, Dana's end-to-end execution is a direct result of the efforts of our talented, world-class team of associates. As one Dana, we are successfully driving sustained profit expansion despite flat year-over-year sales, driven by currency impacts, lower commodity recoveries, as well as some pullback in demand for EV and other traditional markets we serve. Dana's core business priorities encompass sustained financial improvements and commercial effectiveness and growth, which are driven across the company through standardized processes and systems.
Our operating priorities center on operational excellence and execution that is laser-focused on cost reduction and disciplined asset management, which is achieved by leveraging cross-company synergies through our global centers of excellence to ensure that we run the business as efficiently as possible. All of this is driving significant profit expansion, as illustrated on the right side of the page. By way of example, as we finished up the first half of this year, and you look back over the last few years and compare the first half of 2024 to 2022 and 2023, you can see Adjusted EBITDA has increased by $135 million or 41%. This was only made possible because of the outstanding execution and collaboration of our global team. And finally, it's important to note that it goes beyond the outstanding execution taking place across the company.
What truly sets Dana apart is our ability to provide customers spanning all mobility markets with a balanced portfolio that is energy source agnostic. What I mean by that is, as we presented on the previous slide, we can deliver class-leading solutions that support internal combustion, hybrid, and EV manufacturers across all mobility markets. The result is our end-to-end business execution is successfully driving towards long-term profit targets and a strong financial outlook. Thank you for your time today. Now I'd like to turn it over to Tim, who will walk you through the financials.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Thank you, Jim, and good morning. Please turn with me now to slide nine for a review of our second quarter and year-to-date results for 2024. Beginning with the second quarter, sales were $2.74 billion, slightly below last year's due to currency translation and lower commodity recoveries, offsetting higher demand and backlog. Year-to-date, sales were $5.47 billion, an increase of $81 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $244 million in the second quarter, for a profit margin of 8.9%, a ten basis points improvement. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA was $467 million. That is $20 million higher than the previous year for a profit margin of 8.5%, twenty basis points better than last year.
Profit improvement this year is primarily due to better efficiencies across the company, aided by more stable customer order patterns. Net income attributable to Dana was $16 million for the second quarter, about $14 million lower than last year, primarily due to restructuring actions. Full-year net income was $19 million, compared to net income of $58 million last year. The difference is primarily due to the planned divestiture of our non-core hydraulics business from within our Off-Highway segment that we discussed last quarter. This business is classified as held for sale, and a $29 million loss was recognized in the first quarter to adjust the carrying value of the net assets to fair value, less estimated selling costs. This transaction also triggered a $7 million tax valuation allowance in Europe.
Finally, operating cash flow was $215 million for the quarter and $113 million for the full year. Operating cash flow was $27 million higher this year than the year prior in the year-to-date period for 2023. Please turn with me now to slide 10 for the driver of the sales and profit change for the second quarter of 2024. Beginning on the left, traditional organic sales were $19 million higher, driven by increased demand for newly refreshed vehicle programs, market share gains in commercial vehicle, partly offset by lower demand in off-highway end markets. Adjusted EBITDA on our organic sales was $40 million. This very strong incremental margin was due to our improved cost efficiencies across the entire company, which generated a 150 basis point margin improvement.
EV organic sales growth was $11 million, driven primarily by an increase in sales of battery cooling and hybrid vehicle products, offset by lower demand in Commercial Vehicle and Off-Highway segments. adjusted EBITDA was $19 million lower and 80 basis point margin headwind. Continued engineering investment for EV programs drove the lower profit, offsetting the positive contribution from higher sales. Foreign currency translation decreased sales by $22 million, primarily driven by the lower value of the euro and the Brazilian real compared to the US dollar. Profit was lower by $3 million, with no large margin impact. Finally, due to falling commodity prices, commodity cost recovery in the second quarter was $16 million lower than last year.
The profit benefit of the lower commodity prices was offset by the timing of cost mechanisms within the commodity recovery agreements with our customers, resulting in a profit being lower by $17 million, a 60 basis point decrement to margin. Next, we'll turn to slide 11 for the details of our first quarter free cash flow. Free cash flow was $104 million in the second quarter, which was $30 million lower than last year's second quarter. Lower net interest due to timing of interest payments, mostly offset higher taxes driven by payment timing and regional mix. Working capital requirements were $38 million higher than last year, primarily due to the timing of various payments.
Finally, capital spending to support new business backlog was $11 million lower than last year, driven by a more normalized launch cadence this year and the timing of investment for future EV programs. Please turn with me now to slide 12 for our upgraded guidance for 2024. We continue to expect all of our financial guidance measures to be improved compared to last year. However, there are a few updates to our outlook. First, we are trimming our sales outlook for this year to the lower end of our previous range, to about $10.7 billion at the midpoint of the updated range, primarily due to slower growth in demand for electric vehicles. Second, we are maintaining our profit guidance of $925 million at the midpoint of the range.
This is about $80 million higher than last year. Our implied profit margin has increased by 10 basis points at the midpoint of the 8.3%-8.8% range. This revised margin is a 60 basis points improvement over last year. Third, we are, again this quarter, increasing our guidance for full year free cash flow by $25 million to $100 million for the full year, or $125 million higher than last year. Our GAAP earnings per share guidance remains unchanged at $0.60 per share. And finally, we are reinstating our guidance for diluted adjusted EPS to provide a comparable measure to prior periods, primarily due to the strategic actions this year. We expect diluted adjusted EPS to be in the range of $0.80-$1.30, or $1.05 at the midpoint.
Note that with this measure, we're adjusting only one-time items and amortization of intangible assets, in line with our Adjusted EBITDA measure. Please turn with me now to slide 13, where I will highlight the drivers of the full-year expected sales and profit changes compared to last year. Beginning with organic growth, for 2024, we now expect about $230 million in additional sales from traditional products through new business, moderate market growth, and market share gains. This is slightly lower than our previous outlook, due to continued weakness in our heavy vehicle markets. Adjusted EBITDA increase on traditional organic sales expected to be approximately $145 million. The higher profit margin increase of about 120 basis points is a continuation of the company-wide efficiencies and cost savings actions.
As I mentioned, we are lowering our incremental sales expectation for EV products this year due to the industry-wide slowdown in demand. We now expect about $65 million in incremental EV sales. The EV business continues to contribute positive profit, and we have reduced our engineering and other expenses, and are maintaining our expected EV adjusted EBITDA to be about $20 million headwind. The divestiture is expected to close in the second half of this year, and we're lowering sales by $40 million with no profit impact. Foreign currency translation on sales is expected to be slightly more modest headwind of approximately $45 million, with a profit impact of $5 million. Finally, our commodity outlook is expected to be a headwind to sales of about $65 million due to lower recoveries driven by falling steel and other commodity prices.
We expect a $40 million profit headwind due to the true up of pricing, governed by our two-way commodity recovery mechanisms with our customers. Lastly, please turn with me to slide 14 for our outlook on free cash flow for 2024. We anticipate full year free cash flow to now be about $100 million at the midpoint of the guidance range. This is a $25 million improvement over our prior outlook, given, driven by lower capital spending. We expect about $80 million of higher free cash flow from increased profits on higher sales. Net interest will be about $35 million higher due to, due to higher interest rates and payment timing due to the refinancing that occurred in 2023.
Working capital is expected to be a use of about $50 million, or $35 million better than last year, and capital spending to support our sales growth and technology is expected to be about $425 million this year, which is $75 million lower than last year as we flex spending to match customer program timing. Thank you for joining us today. I will now turn the call back over to Regina, and we'll take your questions.
Operator (participant)
At this time, I'd like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star one on your telephone keypad. Our first question will come from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
Oh, great. Thanks for taking my questions. When, when I look at the lower sales guidance, it's, you know, $200 million at the midpoint, almost all of it, $175 million, I think, is from EVs. You know, one, what are you seeing on EVs? But, but two, it- the recent S&P forecast had some pretty big cuts in the second half of the year to some of your larger customers. Was that already baked into your outlook? You know, why kind of expect it a little bit of a hit from some of those reductions? Why, why, why hasn't that impacted you?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Hey, Colin, this is Tim. Yeah, so we had already been expecting some of that slowdown in the back half of the year and had already built that in to our original forecast. So that's already in there, and then there is some mix change in there as well.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
On the EV side, I mean, is this, these programs getting pushed into next year? I mean, any color there on, on the what's-
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, so, you know, we-
Yeah, so I think we're seeing, you know, lower volumes across much of it. Obviously, a lot of it coming out of the CV space, a little bit elsewhere. But we do think that some of that will start to return. But you know, in the EV space, it's not really program-specific as much as it is customer-specific. So, as we see the customers start to rebalance to demand, I think we'll see some of that flatten out.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
Got it. And if I look at the sort of implied first half to second half based on the midpoint of your new guidance, it implies, you know, higher margins on, you know, looks like lower sales first half to second half. What kind of gets the margins out? Usually, it doesn't work that way. So what gets margins higher in the second half, even if sales aren't, aren't up?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. So if you just look at the high, we're down about $250 million, you know, half to half, and only losing about $10 million of that in EBITDA. You know, that would normally convert, if you just think about it, at something around 50. That 40 difference, 20 of it is really around the EV. So you'll see that if you look at the difference in EV. So we are flexing a lot of those costs from first half to second half on the EV. The balance is really additional improvement on the cost structure and the efficiencies across the company. So...
And if you think about, you know, think about our, our last year's second half, we showed, you know, our ability to, to really drive efficiencies, when we lost those sales and had, you know, something around $50 million in the, in the back half of last year that were really efficiency improvements. So, we feel good about being able to deliver, continue to be able to deliver our, our commitment on the $925, even despite the lower sales.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
Got it. Thanks for the color.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Tom Narayan with RBC. Please go ahead.
Tom Narayan (Analyst)
Hi. Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. You know, one last week, there were two, two OEMs, who were Stellantis and Ford, with pretty elevated dealer inventory levels. One of them, Stellantis, actually called out, explicitly how they're gonna cut, like, 100,000 units of production, I think in H2 alone. I know you just mentioned that you had already been incorporating a lot of this, in your, in your guidance, but it seems like a moving target, just as early as-- recently as last week. I was just curious, like, you know, it seems like these OEM customers, I know both of them are, are customers of yours, are using production cuts as a way to deal with this inventory situation.
To what extent are you, you know, concerned about this, not just in H2'24, but perhaps even prospectively into 2025?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. So I'm not gonna give any color on 2025, as you know, it's still quite a ways away. When we look at the back half of the year, right, yeah, we had some of this in there, as I mentioned before. You know, we also have mix, obviously, between segments and even between programs. And then, you know, obviously, we're very light truck-focused and usually very and obviously very program-focused on the vehicle side. So you know, we think where we have the forecast now is in line with what we're hearing from the customers. But obviously, as they continue to adjust, we'll make those changes as needed.
Tom Narayan (Analyst)
Okay. And then if I could just squeeze in one. You prepared comments that you mentioned share gains in, in commercial vehicle offsetting market declines. Just curious as to maybe where this is happening, the share gains, in particular? Thanks.
Jim Kamsickas (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning. Thanks for the question. Thanks for attending. This is Jim. Just, there's no long-winded answer to it. It's, it's across the world. It's global. We're just continuing to execute, and cross-quality delivery, you name it, and, fortunately, we're appreciated that our customers are recognizing it and supporting us.
Tom Narayan (Analyst)
Okay, thank you.
Jim Kamsickas (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Dan Levy (Analyst)
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Wanted to start with, a question on, light vehicle. I think this is, like, the best margin that you've put up in something like the last three years. You know, and, and obviously, we see a pretty, pretty good EBITDA on, on sort of modest revenue increase. So maybe you can just give us, a sense of the, the underlying dynamics in, in the LVD, margins, how much of this is just inflation unwind? And then, maybe you can give us a, a, a flavor for, you know, just what the trajectory is. You know, this was once an 11, 12% EBITDA margin business.
I recognize maybe it doesn't go back up to that level, given some of the inflation dynamics, but maybe you can give us a sense of sort of where this business is going forward, because it still seems like even with these production adjustments, the core volumes on these platforms is still quite robust. Super Duty just added capacity, so maybe you can give us a sense of the trajectory there, please.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. So, you know, obviously, we're pleased with the, you know, where we're at in terms of the trajectory to move the light vehicle margins back to where they really need to be. I think, you know, obviously, the customer running better helps with efficiency, but also, you know, the drive within the organization on across-the-board efficiency, so whether it be direct material cost, conversion costs within the plants or really just the general cost structure from a fixed perspective in the business, is really getting reflected. But that—those plants continue to run better and better, you know, day in and day out, and we see that continuing. You mentioned inflation.
Inflation is still with us, you know, albeit it's slowed down, so we have less to have to offset or try to go get from the customer. So that's certainly a benefit versus what we had over the last few years. On your last question, yeah, we need to get these margins and are working to get these margins, you know, back closer to where they are. I mean, will they be back there? You know, we'll have to continue to push. But certainly, our view is this business can be and will be a double-digit profit generator and be able to have the acceptable returns for the capital we've invested.
Dan Levy (Analyst)
Just on the inflation, is there... You know, can you contextualize how much maybe low-hanging fruit is there that, that can still come out of the system? Or, or how much of the sort of production inefficiencies which dragged the margins in the past, how much more improvement you could see on that, that front?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, no, I think there's—I don't wanna get into, you know, specifics of how we run the plants, but certainly we think there's additional amounts in both of those to be able to go get. And, you know, look, the idea of, you know, taking costs out of the plants, you know, that's part of the DNA. And we're really just flexing that muscle that we have now that we've got better production scheduling, and that's what you're seeing flow through.
Dan Levy (Analyst)
Great. Thank you. As a follow-up, Jim, I'm wondering if you could just give us an update on the EV strategy. And I know this is a question that's come up on past calls, but, you know, this is such a fluid environment, and we're seeing automakers continuing to change plans, modify launch schedules, obviously, on the light vehicle side. But even on the commercial side as well, it seems like, you know, there are some shifts there. So maybe you can just give us a sense of how, if at all, you know, the strategy on EV is being modified, or is it still continuing to stay the path, continuing to maintain the investment?
Jim Kamsickas (Chairman and CEO)
Dan, thanks for the question. That's a lot to unpack, but I'll do my best. I think we're all challenged with it, right? In terms of figuring that out, not the strategy so much about what's going on, but I guess to get some momentum around the answer would be, everyone is, I would say, pushing out and reducing down, in some form or fashion on EV, for all the reasons we know, infrastructure to whatever it might be. As it relates to us, the best thing I could do for you is to paint a visual. We've created a very unique strategy at Dana.
From the very beginning, we've been very rigid with it, and that is, you take the example of the Bollinger win that we announced today, and you look at the components that are in there. You have a rigid e-Beam axle, you have a motor, you have an inverter, you have the software, you have the controls within that, you have the thermal management that supports it from our Power Technologies business, so on and so forth. That all of that, at a minimum, on a human capital level, fungible. At a maximum, many times the capital assets themselves in the plants is fungible across business units, et cetera, et cetera.
And so for us, our strategy doesn't need to change because that product, those products, I should say, can go up and down the river, as I like to call it, in the off-highway, in the commercial vehicle, the light vehicle, at different diameters, at different torque, at different things. So we, we're not we don't have to change our strategy because one market or, or whatever the case may be, may have more delay, more pullback, whatever it might be. So we're positioned. If it was different, if this pullback and change would've happened four years ago, three years ago, I mean, you'd have to think about an abrupt change. But there's...
I can't see a world, personally speaking, I can't see a world that customers that start with light vehicles, take an example, that consumers are gonna go into dealerships and not expect to have the optionality around buying an EV, a hybrid, or an internal combustion engine for any time in the near future. The same thing goes for commercial vehicle. If you think about the most important, probably the most important end market relative to total cost of ownership, if you're an OEM, I'm not here to speak on behalf of them, they speak to me. I'm kind of relaying it. You don't give people the optionality and a total cost of ownership depending on the vehicle choice, things, but good things happen or bad things happen to good people. So you're always gonna have those type of certain scenarios.
We're just using our capital, both human and equipment capital, to support all of our customers. We'll get a good return on it. Capital is blind. It doesn't matter if it's EV capital, if it's ICE capital, or hybrid. You just deploy the capital, you make a return on investment, your company grows, you continue to expand margin. I hope that's not too much of an answer, but that's how we're thinking about it.
Dan Levy (Analyst)
Great, thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with UBS. Please go ahead.
Joe Spak (Analyst)
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I wanna sort of get back to the guide and to maybe think about it a little bit differently. So if we look at the sales level on traditional organic, I mean, you did bring that down a little bit for the year, and I know you sort of spoke to some tougher end markets. But if you look, it still assumes, like, you know, over $135 million of positive in the second half, which is like 60% of that total gain you're looking for. And we know some of those end markets are tougher, and some of the key platforms look to be, you know, maybe down 50% over 50%.
So can you just help us understand what's really driving that, and maybe even some indication by segment, if possible?
Jim Kamsickas (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, you know, I think the— Don't forget, you know, our second half last year, especially in light vehicle, was significantly impacted by the UAW strike, so we're gonna get that volume back. You know, and you know, we can-
talk about sort of where the customers are on production plans, but, you know-
Joe Spak (Analyst)
Mm-hmm
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
our largest programs were all impacted significantly by that strike, and that's back. We also had some launches last year that, in the back half, that should be at better run rates. So those are obviously all helping. We also have, you know, parts of the business that are out, you know, that are outside of North America, that from a mix perspective, that continue to support the ICE sales growth. And then, of course, we've got, you know, some headwinds starting to peek through on the off-highway side. But that's generally why we still are able to see that growth from an ICE perspective in the back half of the year.
Joe Spak (Analyst)
Okay. And then, I guess similarly, just on the, on the, the margin side or the cost side, I guess, right? Like, you know, the 73% conversion on traditional or, you know, or growth in the first half, I mean, the guidance does imply that steps down to something in the mid-50s in the back half, but obviously still, still really strong. I'm so but I'm just wondering, and I know you talked about sort of, you know, prudent investment, capital efficiency, but, is there more that can be done, do you think, within the organization as we think beyond the back half?
Like, how should we, you know, or, like, do we return to sort of more normal contribution margins, I guess, as you know, beyond some of the, you know, the comps that are impacting the figures this year?
Jim Kamsickas (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Joe. Good morning, this is Jim. Just, let me kind of dive into that one a little bit, to try to get through all corporate requests. And can more be done? Absolutely, more can be done. You know, manufacturing, if you're worth your salt, is all about sustain and improve, sustain and improve, build processes and systems that give you a platform to build off of. And that's what we've been doing here. We've taken the kind of the long view to build just an incredible company. So first of all, on a what's you kind of, what's within your controls, we, we fully expect to continue to improve on all of the drivers that we refer to as across company efficiencies.
In addition to, to remind you, in the overall profitability of the business, too, this, the business, you know it as well as I do, relative to fixed contracts, and we've just got every, especially light vehicle, but all, all suppliers got hit with fixed contracts that you have to deal with, et cetera, et cetera. As those continue to build out, we are still, in many, many cases, supplier of choice, and we're gonna continue to reap the benefit of getting new roll-on programs. So in terms of the trajectory, that's the way you think about, that's the way I think about it. It, it's just sustain and improve, both on new growth, profitable growth, utilize the existing capital you have. We don't have to go build out a platform of electrification capital, like we would've had to over the years.
Not to say there's not some, but it's more of an ambient capital level, like the company's ran for decades, and we just continue to gain margin off of that moving forward, and more importantly, cash flow.
Joe Spak (Analyst)
Okay. Maybe one quick one. Just can you confirm that you'd be able to support Super Duty production in Ontario?
Jim Kamsickas (Chairman and CEO)
We will always support production for our customers, for sure. The answer is yes.
Joe Spak (Analyst)
Okay, thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of James Picariello with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
James Picariello (Analyst)
Hey, guys, this is Jake on for James. First, I was hoping you'd give us an update on the Hydro-Québec TM4 put, just some color on the timing and impact and, what the cash payment to Hydro-Québec could be. Thank you.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Sure. This is Tim. How you doing, Jake? Sure. I mean, obviously, we're in the process today. You know, the contract, the shareholders agreement has a specific process that we're working through. In terms of timing, you know, I think, you know, certainly, it'll continue to take some time. You know, we'll update as we know more, but certainly, it's gonna be, you know, late this year or early next. In terms of our view, we've had the disclosure out there for some time in terms of what we believe our view of the value of the put is. That's currently in there.
It's somewhere in the neighborhood of $200, which is what we currently have it on the books for, and we haven't changed that view since we started down this process. Although we are early in the process with Hydro-Québec.
James Picariello (Analyst)
Great. Thanks, Tim. And then could you guys just give us an outlook on the off-highway market? Ag especially appears to be materially turning over to the negative. So what's your assumption there? Thank you.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. So, correct, we're—we still see ag being down. Obviously, farming comes down. You can see, you've heard the news coming out of John Deere, which is one of our larger customers, especially in ag. So yeah, we continue to monitor that. You know, obviously, it's... We have, you know, we don't play in every ag market, so they're all reacting a bit differently. But our current view, which is a down ag market, is built into the rest of year forecast.
James Picariello (Analyst)
Thank you.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Okay, just some concluding comments. This is Jim again. First of all, as I always like to do, thank you very much for your time and attendance today, and privilege of your time. Not a lot to include. I thought the questions kind of surrounded it well today, but I would just say, kind of personalizing it a little bit, this is my over 35 years in the business, almost 18 as a CEO. One thing that has never changed, and that is, there's no shortcut to win, there are no shortcuts for mobility suppliers. You have to execute on cost, quality, delivery, technology and innovation, operational excellence, and customer satisfaction. Never changes, right?
No one would've imagined the disruption that would've occurred - that occurred coming out of the COVID years and hyperinflation, and it's just a clock you can't speed up in terms of getting the company back to where it was. As you can see, obviously, through a 73% conversion on incremental sales or the methodical incremental sales on various platforms across end markets, across propulsion systems, companies running at extremely high level and continuing to improve every day. In the long haul, the markets will definitely support the small caps. They're gonna - the money's gonna come back our direction, 'cause we're just gonna continue to form, not just us, but the rest of the supply base. Thanks again for your time and attention. We'll talk to you later.
Operator (participant)
Thank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.