Dana - Earnings Call - Q4 2024
February 20, 2025
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning and Welcome to Dana Incorporated's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial webcast and conference call. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference facilitator. Please be advised that our meeting today, both the speaker's remarks and Q&A session, will be recorded for replay purposes. For those participants who would like to access the call from the webcast, please reference the URL on our website and sign in as a guest.
There will be a question-and-answer period after the speaker's remarks, and we will take questions from the telephone only. To ensure that everyone has an opportunity to participate in today's Q&A, we ask that callers limit themselves to one question at a time. If you would like to ask an additional question, please return to the queue. At this time, I would like to begin the presentation by turning the call over to Dana's Senior Director of Investor Relations, Strategic Planning, and Corporate Communications, Craig Barber. Please go ahead, Mr. Barber.
Craig Barber (Senior Director of Investor Relations, Strategic Planning, and Corporate Communications)
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Dana Incorporated's 2024 Q4 and full-year earnings call. Today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about our expectations for Dana's future performance. Actual results could differ from what we've discussed today. For more details about the factors that could affect our future results, please refer to our Safe Harbor statement found in our public filings and our reports with the SEC. You'll find this morning's press release and presentation on our investor website.
And as a reminder, today's call is being recorded, and the supporting materials are the property of Dana Incorporated. They may not be recorded, copied, or rebroadcast without our written consent. Our leaders of the call this morning are Bruce McDonald, Dana Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Timothy Kraus, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bruce to get us started.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
All right. Thank you, Craig, and good morning, everybody. Probably a little bit less than normal for me on this call, given we just spoke with the Street here a month ago. But just on slide four, just a high-level perspective on our financials. For the full-year, sales down about nearly $300 million, really reflecting softness, I would say, in a few key areas. One would be EV and some of our sales to the programs that we are currently in production on.
And then as the year progressed, we saw increasingly weak markets in Off-Highway. In terms of our profitability, we benefited from strong operating performance with our sales, with our Adjusted EBITDA up $40 million on lower volumes and driving our operating margins up by 60 basis points. Again, just a little bit of color there. Strong operational performance.
We're starting to see the early benefits of some of our footprinting actions and plant consolidation, and really good to see here in the fourth quarter, as we previously talked about, the benefits of our cost reduction, our $300 million cost reduction program flowing through in the quarter, $10 million in Q4 here. And as I mentioned last month, about $100 million of the $300 million is actioned, and you could think about in the bag.
And lastly, in terms of free cash flow, big improvement getting from a slightly negative position in 2023 to $70 million in 2024. We're pleased with the improvement, but it's nowhere near where it needs to be, and the guidance that we're going to share with you later on, we have free cash flow more than tripling in 2025. Turning to slide five.
Again, this is sort of a lift from the deck a month ago. Focusing on, Tim and I and the team are very heavily focused on completing the Off-Highway divestiture. I really don't have any new information to report versus a month ago. We have a robust process with strong interest, and we continue to believe that we can execute the legal agreements and announce a transaction somewhere in early Q2 with a closing by the end of our fiscal 2025. In terms of EV and our approach to the marketplace, that's been fully implemented and communicated.
That's been critical for us. I think it de-risks some of the capital that we've committed in the future. And the fact that we're taking a much more measured approach really reduces the CapEx intensity of our business on a go-forward basis.
A little bit more information here in terms of Power Technologies consolidation. We're well underway in terms of completing that initiative. It's been kind of fully rolled out. That savings is worth somewhere in the $15 million-$20 million level. That's kind of the run rate we hope to get from that initiative, and under Byron Foster's leadership, I feel good about that.
In terms of financial commitments, we're fully committed to getting New Dana margins up to the 8.1%-8.6% here in 2025 and pushing towards double digit in 2026, really benefiting from strong continued operation performance and, of course, the benefits of the $300 million cost reduction that will be fully in our base in 2026. In terms of use of proceeds, again, committed to a strong balance sheet.
The discussions that we're having with our Board would suggest we're targeting a net leverage of about one times through the cycle. That does not mean we'll be at one times when we, on day one, we'll probably be lower than that, but we want to have a conservative balance sheet so that we're strong throughout the cycle.
Lastly, for me on page six, just a few comments on our markets and our backlog for this year. I guess I'd categorize our outlook in terms of Light Vehicles flat-ish year-over-year. That seems to be generally consistent with what other suppliers and OEs are talking about right now, and that's sort of been reflected in the releases that we've seen so far. In terms of commercial vehicles, a little bit of softness in the market.
We do anticipate to see commercial vehicle stabilize here towards the end of this year and look forward to starting to see the beneficial impacts of pre-buys associated with the 2026 emissions legislation changes. In terms of Off-Highway, similar type weakness in the market.
I guess I would say I haven't seen our numbers for January and early view on February, the market's actually doing a little bit better than we had talked about a month ago, so I'm not going to call it a turnaround yet, but it seems to be holding up a little bit better than we had feared. Tim's going to get into our quarterly phasing later on, but one thing I would point out is we are going to have difficult comps here in Q1 and to a lesser extent in Q2.
In Light Vehicle, obviously, last year we benefited from volume pickup associated with the strikes in North America. And then we've got tough year-over-year comps in both Off-Highway and CV. In terms of our backlog, $650 million. You can see how that flows by year.
Obviously, it's down about $300 million from our backlog the year before. That really reflects, I would say, largely lower volumes on the EV programs that we have in our backlog. But nonetheless, we've got strong growth in each of the next three years. And I guess I just remind folks that 80% type plus of our backlog tends to be in New Dana as opposed to Off-Highway. So that, Tim, I'll turn it over to you to sort of deep dive into financials.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, Bruce, and good morning to everyone. Please turn to slide eight for review of our fourth quarter and full- year results for 2024. Beginning on the left column with the fourth quarter sales, we're $2.34 billion, $159 million below last year due to lower vehicle production and currency impacts. For the full-year, sales were $10.28 billion, down $271 million, driven again by end-market weakness.
Adjusted EBITDA was $186 million in the fourth quarter for a profit margin of 8%. That is a 170 basis point improvement over last year's fourth quarter. Full-year Adjusted EBITDA was $885 million, $40 million higher than the previous year for a profit margin of 8.6%, 60 basis points better than last year. The profit improvement is primarily due to cost-saving actions and better efficiencies throughout the organization.
Net loss attributable to Dana was $80 million for the fourth quarter, $41 million lower than last year, primarily driven by $31 million higher restructuring charges this year to implement our long-term cost savings plan and divestiture expenses. Full-year net loss was $57 million compared to net income of $38 million last year. The primary difference of $51 million in higher restructuring charges and the $26 million loss recorded for the planned divestiture of our non-core hydraulics business that was announced earlier this year.
The transaction did not occur in the third quarter as expected and was no longer classified as held for sale. However, this loss was recognized to adjust the carrying value of the net assets to fair value remains due to accounting. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.25 per share compared to a loss of $0.08 last year.
For the full-year, Adjusted EPS was $0.94 per share, $0.10 better than the prior year, and finally, free cash flow was $149 million for the quarter, $70 million for the full-year, a $13 million improvement for the quarter, and $95 million improvement for the year. Please turn with me now to slide nine for the drivers of the sales and profit change for the fourth quarter of 2024.
Beginning on the left, organic sales were $135 million lower, driven by lower OEM production of heavy vehicles. Adjusted EBITDA on organic sales was $33 million higher. This strong incremental margin was due to improved cost efficiencies across the entire company and generated a 175 basis points improvement in margin. As we detailed in our business update call in January, we are showing the impact of our cost-saving programs in our profit logs.
For the fourth quarter of 2024, cost savings added $10 million in profit through the various actions we took since we began the program in the fourth quarter. Foreign currency translation decreased sales by $15 million, primarily driven by lower value of the Euro and Real compared to the U.S. dollar. Profit was lower by $1 million with no impact to margin.
Finally, due to falling commodity prices, commodity cost recovery in the fourth quarter was $8 million lower than last year. The profit benefit of the lower commodity prices was offset by the timing cost mechanisms within the commodity recovery agreements with our customers, resulting in profit being lower by $12 million, a 45 basis point decrement to margin. Next, I'll turn to slide 10 for the drivers of the sales and profit change for the full-year 2024.
For the full-year, organic sales were $164 million lower, driven by lower end-market demand in the second half of the year. Adjusted EBITDA on organic sales was $76 million higher. This strong incremental margin, again, was due to improved cost efficiencies across the organization, resulting in 90 basis points improvement in margin. The cost-saving program, which began in the fourth quarter, added the same $10 million to Adjusted EBITDA, as was shown in the previous page for fourth quarter.
Foreign currency translation lowered sales by $49 million and profit by $6 million, with no impact to margin. Just as in the fourth quarter, the benefit of the lower commodity prices was offset by timing cost mechanisms with our customer agreements. Commodity cost recovery was $53 million lower than last year, and profit was lowered by $40 million, a 40 basis point impact to margin.
Please turn with me now to slide 11 for the details of the full-year free cash flow. Free cash flow for 2024 totaled $70 million, $95 million higher than last year. Higher Adjusted EBITDA was partially offset by higher one-time costs related to cost-saving actions and the sale of the Off-Highway business, as well as higher net interest due to the timing of interest payments and higher taxes driven by payment timing and regional mix of income. Working capital use was $17 million lower than last year. The use was due to the timing of payables and other working capital.
Finally, capital spending was $121 million lower, driven by a normalized launch cadence and lower investment for EV programs. Please turn to slide 12 for a review of our 2025 guidance. Our 2025 full-year guidance remains unchanged from our business update call in January.
As a reminder, our guidance includes the Off-Highway business for the full-year and does not include any impact from unidentified tariffs. We are expecting sales for this year of about $9.75 billion at the midpoint of our range. That is about $500 million lower than last year, driven by lower end-market demand and the delay in some EV programs, as well as currency translation impacts.
Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $975 million at the midpoint of the tighter ranges. This is approximately $90 million higher than 2024 and implies a profit margin of 10%, a 140 basis points increase over 2024. Full-year free cash flow is expected to be $225 million at the midpoint of the range for the year. This is approximately $155 million higher than last year. Our Adjusted EPS guidance is expected to be $1.65 per share at the midpoint of the range.
Please turn with me now to slide 13, where I will highlight the drivers of the full-year expected sales and profit changes compared to 2024. We are expecting about $285 million of lower organic sales for 2025, driven by lower demand in all end markets, partially offset by new business. Adjusted EBITDA change on organic sales growth is expected to be approximately $40 million for a decremental margin of just 14%. This is due to the continued manufacturing and purchasing efficiency improvements in the organization.
Cost-saving actions are expected to total $175 million this year, in-reasing margin by 180 basis points. Foreign currency translation on sales is expected to be a headwind of approximately $195 million, with a profit impact of about $25 million.
Finally, our commodity outlook is expected to be a headwind to sales of about $30 million due to lower recoveries driven by falling steel and other commodity prices. We expect a $20 million profit headwind due to the true-up and pricing governed by our two-way commodity recovery mechanisms with our customers. Please turn with me now to slide 14 for our outlook on free cash flow for 2025.
We anticipate full-year 2025 free cash flow to be about $225 million at the midpoint of the guidance range. We expect about $90 million of higher free cash flow from increased Adjusted EBITDA. One-time costs will be about $20 million higher as we invest in our cost-savings program and work to finalize the Off-Highway divestiture.
Working capital requirements will be about $40 million lower, and capital spending is expected to be about $325 million this year, which is $55 million lower than last year. Lastly, please turn with me to slide 15 for an outlook of our quarterly phasing. Page 15 shows our sales by quarter for 2024 and our expected sales for 2025. There are a few market drivers in 2024 that disrupted our normal quarterly cadence beginning in the first quarter, where Light Vehicle production increased dramatically coming off the 2023 UAW strike in North America.
This year, we are seeing a slowdown in production as vehicle inventories remain high for a number of our programs. The back half of the year will see improved demand as we see inventories normalize and Off-Highway markets return to growth.
In the near term, the impact to Q1 will be about $500 million in lower sales than last year due to lower end-market demand. We will see between $35 and $40 million in cost-saving improvements in Q1 and are expecting about 8% Adjusted EBITDA margins for the quarter. Thank you for joining us this morning, and I will now turn the call back over to Regina to start the Q&A session.
Operator (participant)
At this time, if you'd like to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. To ensure that everyone has an opportunity to participate, we ask that you limit yourself to one question at a time. We'll take our first question from the line of Tom Narayan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Tom Narayan (Lead Equity Analyst of Global Autos)
Hi, thanks for taking the question. I'll try to keep it to one. I just have a quick follow-up, if that's okay, so the robust process and strong interest, and I know a lot of this is covered on the January 25 call, it would appear that signing in Q2, that's only like two months away. So I guess, is this timeline based on just a prediction of interest, or is this something farther along, specific interest from one or two bidders, and then I just have a quick follow-up?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, Tom. So as we mentioned, we have a very robust process with a number of interested parties. I'm not going to get into the specific numbers, but we are well along in the process, and we expect to be able to sign a transaction here early in the second quarter.
Tom Narayan (Lead Equity Analyst of Global Autos)
Okay. If it's okay, the follow-up. So on the 25 guidance, yeah, the market for Light Vehicle flat, we have heard from some other suppliers noting kind of a down mid-single digits. Is this specific to your Light Vehicle OEM exposure or perhaps geographics? And then on the backlog that you guys have, the $150 million, could you split that out across the segments just so we can just understand how that works with Off-Highway? Thanks.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. So on your first, our Light Vehicle view is really related to our programs, not to the overall market. You got to remember, one, we really only play in full-frame truck. And even within full-frame truck, we have a disproportionate amount of our sales in a number of key programs with Ford and Stellantis in particular. And on the backlog question, the vast majority of the predominant of that is not Off-Highway or is LV and PT. So still, the majority of that is in the Light Vehicle driveline parts of the business.
Tom Narayan (Lead Equity Analyst of Global Autos)
Got it. Thanks. I'll turn it over.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Colin Langan (Automotive and Mobility Analyst)
Oh, great. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a basic question here, but what is going on with the taxes and guidance? It seems like the EPS is moving a lot more than the EBITDA guide. Is there a change in the valuation allowances that we should be thinking about? It seems like I assume that's the big driver of why EPS is jumping a lot more.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. I mean, Colin, this is Tim. So yeah, I mean, because we have the valuation allowance up in the U.S., you don't get a normalized rate, right, as mix changes. If a lot more of income comes into the U.S., it ends up being taxed essentially at a zero rate because of the valuation allowance. So until we kind of get through this and through this period and on the other side of the Off-Highway sale, we're going to continue to see a fair amount of volatility around the rate. It's also a bit more difficult to sort of predict and deal with just due to the mix of income, especially from year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. And I guess just Colin has followed up on that. I guess after we get through the other side of selling Off-Highway, deleveraging our balance sheet, and we get the benefit of the $300 million that we're roadmapping, we'll be back to sort of like a normal company in terms of a tax rate.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, I would agree. I mean, we would anticipate we obviously won't know until we get there, but given the changes in interest expense as well as the cost-saving program, we would anticipate that we could probably be able to relieve the valuation allowance at some point after that.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
Start talking about EPS being more normal flowing.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Correct. Yeah.
Colin Langan (Automotive and Mobility Analyst)
So this would be a sign, though, that your U.S. operations have went from unprofitable and are turning profitable, and those profits no longer have a tax on them.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, that's correct. And obviously, a big chunk of our cost-saving program is predominantly or disproportionately in North America and specifically in the U.S. So that should help as well.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. And so you think about why it's high now. It's like we have losses in the U.S. that are not tax benefited.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Correct.
Colin Langan (Automotive and Mobility Analyst)
Yep. Okay, and just to follow up on the prior question about customer mix, because S&P has the Super Duty down double digits. Are you assuming a similar assumption there? Because that is a pretty big platform for you guys, if I'm right. And then, so if that's the case, what is offsetting that to keep it only flat?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. So I mean, the way our forecast is built is based on the mix of models that we're seeing. And so even within Super Duty, there's a pretty big difference between the mix. And so even though overall Super Duty could be down single digits or even double digits, depending on that mix, it will have a different impact to us. We do most of the Super Duty, but not all. So some of it's still done in-house, especially the low-end 250s that are generally gasoline-powered.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
They're really glorified F-150s with a few extra.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, and it's also somewhat offset Super Duty by the fact that we're not expecting the inventory correction on some of the Jeep products to occur in a second shift coming on. I think it's for Gladiator.
Colin Langan (Automotive and Mobility Analyst)
Got it. Okay. All right. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Edison Yu (Leads Coverage of Global Space and Aerial Mobility)
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. Just wanted to come back to commercial vehicle. It seemed the quarter was a bit weak. And I mean, just thinking more high-level about it, when can we start seeing that kind of turnaround?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. Edison, good to talk with you. Hey, this is Tim. So a couple of things in the quarter for CV. I think that your last part of your question, you should start seeing that in the first quarter. There was a couple of one-time items that really impacted fourth quarter. So we did end up having to take some adjustments for EV bad debt and inventory in the quarter, given where that business has gone. And then we did have an inventory or a warranty item that we ended up recording as well. And don't forget, there's going to be significant cost savings coming through in CV as part of the $300 million program.
Edison Yu (Leads Coverage of Global Space and Aerial Mobility)
Got it, and just a quick follow-up.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Go ahead.
Edison Yu (Leads Coverage of Global Space and Aerial Mobility)
Gotcha. Just a quick follow-up on the contrasting there, right? Light Vehicle was quite strong. Is that a good kind of jumping-off point for 2025?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. I think we're going to continue to see strong improvement really across all the markets for all of our end markets as we go in, but yes, we do expect there to be continued growth in both core profit and the margin in Light Vehicle as we sort of see production stabilize and we start seeing the benefits of the cost savings flow through.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, and I maybe just add though, we do tend to see a bit of lumpiness though in timing of customer recovery. We incur costs in some quarters and get sort of catch-up recoveries in different quarters. So that business is always sort of lumpy and things like that. So.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
You have some of that. But yeah, I mean, if you think about the first quarter, sales, we would anticipate sales being down quarter-over-quarter given how strong first quarter 2024 was coming off of the strike. So even despite that, I still believe that we'll have a strong margin that we can turn in on first quarter given the work we're doing on the cost side of the business.
Edison Yu (Leads Coverage of Global Space and Aerial Mobility)
Got it. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of James Picariello with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Jake Scholl (Equity Research Associate of Automotive)
Hey, guys. This is Jake on for James.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Hey, Jake.
Jake Scholl (Equity Research Associate of Automotive)
As we think about the discussions with Hydro-Québec around their TM4 put option, can you just provide any clarity on the timing or the magnitude of the potential payment you're expecting?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. So I don't want to get into anything specific, but we continue to work through that with Hydro-Québec, but I'm pretty confident we'll be able to get something done here this year at some point, so.
Jake Scholl (Equity Research Associate of Automotive)
All right. Thank you. And then just one piece of housekeeping. When do you guys expect to actually implement the resegmentation with Power Technologies getting folded into Light Vehicle and Commercial Vehicle? Thank you.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. We'll be doing that here in Q1, so when we report first quarter, you'll see PowerTech having been folded into LVCV.
Jake Scholl (Equity Research Associate of Automotive)
All right. Thanks, guys.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yep. Anytime.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Ryan Brinkman (Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst)
Hi. Thank you. Just a quick statement of questions. I know it's consistent with every other supplier this quarter. Your guidance excludes the impact of obviously difficult-to-predict tariffs. I'm curious though what early scenario planning you may be doing around tariffs on Canada next month in particular, Mexico especially, and what your exposure there might be, how you're thinking about the ability to either mitigate or pass potential tariff costs along to customers?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
So I think we're obviously looking at the impacts across the business. It's hard to predict, as we said, what they ultimately will be or really what the impacts will be. What I can tell you is that we have put all of our customers formally on notice that we intend to pass every dollar of any tariff impacts through to them. And that's our position, and we're not planning to waver from it.
Ryan Brinkman (Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst)
Good to hear. Thank you. And then regarding the $175 million of targeted cost saves in 2025, of course, a very impressive amount. How much of this and of the $55 million of lower CapEx, how much would you say relates to the changed EV strategy or maybe less of other future revenue opportunities versus more simply drifting and greater efficiency on your part?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. I mean, there's a sizable piece of the $175 that's related to EV. I don't want to get into all the specifics, but there is a large portion of the total $300 related to the change in our EV strategy that's flowing through. So you would have expected that. I think when you think about the $175, as Bruce mentioned, we've already actioned $100 million of that number. And if you look at where we think we're going to end up first quarter between $35 and $40 million, our ability to hit that $175 for the full-year we think is very, very, very certain.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. And then just on your question about capital, I guess I would say is we'll be able to return back to the sort of roughly 4% type capital reinvestment in the business. Obviously, we were significantly higher than that the last few years. In the next couple of years, we still have a few programs that we have that will require some capital expenditure. And we expect you'll see a little bit of change in the balance sheet, but we do expect to have suppliers, sorry, customers, providing us with offsets to the capital expenditure beginning this fiscal year.
Ryan Brinkman (Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thanks. And then just lastly, I think one of the reasons why there's been such a positive surprise reaction to your multi-year cost savings plan is that it comes at the same time as the Off-Highway sale. And it sounds like it's maybe even catalyzed by the sale, given the simpler corporate structure that it can allow.
But earlier, I remember management highlighting the cost synergies of supplying across multiple end markets. And you will still be supplying across the light and commercial markets, of course. But just wanted to check in on that and what you think there may be from a dissynergies perspective, or are most of those synergies between the light and the commercial and the sort of in-between space there, Class 4 or 5, etc.? Just curious.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I'll do a few things maybe to this. I guess, first of all, there's definitely a dissynergy associated with stranded costs. And we've talked about that. We're continuing to chip away. But basically, it's our corporate costs that get allocated to Off-Highway, and some of them are very variable. Some of our corporate costs will go with the sale, but that is a dyssynergy that we have to chip away at.
Secondly, you think about we buy steel and a lot of common components, and we do similar things like make gears and things like that. So yeah, for sure, there is a benefit of having the Off-Highway in terms of purchasing scale and maybe leveraging our footprint. But in the scheme of things, it's manageable. And to your point about so all things being equal, we're certainly not doing it to capture synergies.
We're doing it. The driver for the Off-Highway business is very straightforward. It's the value of that business in terms of the multiple it trades at, it will sell for, versus the value that's reflected in our stock price. It's just not being recognized at the market. And the market has spoken. Our stock price has reacted very favorably because we're going to want to capture that delta. Tim, you may have a few other.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. I think the CV and LV businesses certainly are much more aligned in terms of both process and product, but also geography. So those are just two businesses that are primarily North American businesses. So there are certainly more synergies there than between those and the Off-Highway business. But the other thing to think about here is any of those dissynergies. We've taken those into consideration as we've thought about how the value unlock happens and where New Dana margins end up.
So when we think about New Dana margins in the 10-10.5, when we get on the other side of this thing, that already has those impacts. And as Bruce mentioned, we are currently showing that we have about $40 million worth of stranded costs related to the transaction that we are fully focused on actioning and reducing after we get through the sale.
Ryan Brinkman (Lead Automotive Equity Research Analyst)
Very helpful. Thank you.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Our next question will come from the line of Joseph Spak with UBS. Please go ahead.
Alejandro Nuño (Equity Research Associate)
Hi. Good morning. It's Alejandro on for Joe. Maybe just following up on the backlog question, I think you highlighted sort of roughly 20% will be in Off-Highway. So should I be thinking about sort of the remaining 80% in LV, or how should I think about that LV and CV split?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. I mean, look, I think those are rough numbers in terms of 20-ish% or whatever they move around. You got to remember the backlog number we're looking at there is typically through the three years. But yeah, I mean, there isn't a lot of backlog in the CV business. It's a catalog-based business, and it's usually market share-based, not backlog. There is a little bit of backlog in there, but it's not significant.
Alejandro Nuño (Equity Research Associate)
Got it. Okay. And maybe as a follow-up, you mentioned some weakness in 2Q when you prepared remarks. Can you maybe just give us some additional color on that?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. It won't be as dramatic as first quarter, but we'll see a little bit of additional weakness across the end markets in Q2. And then we'll see that recovery start to really come through in Q3 and Q4. And I think if you look at page 15 of the deck, you can see the bars reflect sort of that cadence.
Alejandro Nuño (Equity Research Associate)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our final question will come from the line of Dan Levy with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Dan Levy (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. I'm joining late, so I apologize if it's mentioned earlier. But if you could just talk to the backlog within the Light Vehicle side, how much of that is reflecting extensions of current Light Vehicle programs? And given this idea of there could be a potential supercycle here as automakers see the longer tail of ICE, how much incremental activity could we see added to the backlog in subsequent periods?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. Hey, Dan. So a couple of things. Remember, the way we calculate backlog is it's truly incremental. So we don't count additional vehicle volume on our programs in the backlog. So you should be able, if you were to hold FX commodity and volume constant across the three-year period, to just add the amounts in the backlog to our sales to get what our resulting sales would be in 2025, 2026, 2027.
So the idea that, hey, there's going to be a lot more volume on our current programs, that would not be in our backlog. It would be in our market outlook, but it won't. Now, if they bring out a brand new variant or something like that, that would go to backlog, something we haven't previously made or sold to the automakers, but not pure volume.
Dan Levy (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Okay. Thank you. And then just as a follow-up, with the news of potential tariffs on steel and aluminum, can you just remind us of how this played out when we saw this in 2018 and just what the timing effects are of you passing this on to your customers?
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. So I know this came up a little bit earlier. We've obviously been looking at what the impacts are likely to be on the business, and we continue to kind of work through that. And as we know more about how they're going to deal with maquiladoras and some of the other nuances within the supply chain, we'll know more. But one thing we have done is we have put all of our customers on formal notice. So we've formally notified them that it is our intention to pass through every dollar of tariff that comes through as a result of it and that we expect them that they're going to pay.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. I guess I'd maybe add to that, Dan, is if you think about the Light Vehicle business, we're far more indexed now than we would have been back then. So to the extent the tariffs drive up, the cost, the recovery mechanism through indexes we already have in place is higher than it was back in 2018.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yeah. And that at least gets you a 75, but our view is we're not going to eat the 25% that doesn't get recovered in our current commodity agreements. We also don't know if it'll be reflected in the indexes or not. It may be surcharged. We just don't know. But at the end of the day, our intention and our expectation is that our customers will pay every dollar.
Dan Levy (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thank you.
Timothy Kraus (SVP and CFO)
Yep.
Bruce McDonald (Chairman and CEO)
Okay. Maybe just in a few concluding remarks, I guess, first of all, I'd like to thank the Dana team and our leaders for delivering our improved financial results. For me personally, I feel really good about the progress the team is making in actioning the $300 million cost reduction roadmap that we have. 2025 for us is going to be a transformational year for Dana.
The sale of our Off-Highway business is going to unlock significant shareholder value while at the same time enabling us to return capital to our shareholders and be left with a best-in-class balance sheet in our space. I'm really excited to be here, and I look forward to sharing our progress in three months' time. Thank you, everyone.
Operator (participant)
That will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.