Sign in
DI

Dave Inc./DE (DAVE)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q3 results with GAAP revenue $92.5M (+41% y/y), GAAP net income $0.5M (vs. $(12.1)M y/y), diluted EPS $0.03, and Adjusted EBITDA $24.7M; non‑GAAP variable profit margin reached 69% (up ~1,200–1,300 bps y/y) .
  • Management raised FY24 guidance: revenue to $340–$343M (from $310–$325M) and Adjusted EBITDA to $71–$74M (from $40–$50M), citing strong ExtraCash demand, credit performance, and CAC efficiency; Adj. EBITDA margin in Q3 was 27% per management .
  • Strategic LOI signed with a publicly traded parent sponsor bank to diversify bank relationships and enable next‑gen products; costs seen as comparable to existing partner and potential to support a new credit product in 2025 .
  • Estimate context: Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable for DAVE this quarter due to missing mapping, so we cannot quantify beats/misses vs consensus.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Accelerating top-line and profitability: revenue +41% y/y to $92.5M; Adj. EBITDA +$27.2M y/y to $24.7M; management highlighted fourth straight quarter of accelerating y/y revenue growth and 63% q/q Adj. EBITDA growth .
  • Credit performance and margins: 28‑day delinquency improved to 1.78% (−64 bps y/y), supporting a record 69% variable profit margin; provision for credit losses fell 14% y/y to $13.7M despite 46% y/y origination growth, driven by CashAI underwriting .
  • Efficient growth: MTMs +23% to 2.4M; CAC down 14% y/y to $15 with 4% more new members (854k); Dave Card spend +19% y/y to $407M; ARPU +14% y/y and +11% q/q .

What Went Wrong

  • Legal accrual weighed on GAAP results: Q3 included a $7.0M accrual related to the FTC matter; adjusted metrics exclude this .
  • Liquidity optics: cash, equivalents, marketable securities, investments and restricted cash decreased to $76.7M from $89.7M q/q due primarily to a $37.7M quarter‑end timing increase in ExtraCash receivables (day‑of‑week dynamic) .
  • Outlook caveat on provisions: management expects quarter‑end calendar effects to lift loss provision in Q4 (ends on a Tuesday), potentially offsetting solid underlying credit performance near‑term .

Financial Results

Headline P&L vs Prior Periods

MetricQ3 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024
GAAP Operating Revenues, Net ($M)$65.8 $80.1 $92.5
GAAP Net Income (Loss) ($M)$(12.1) $6.4 $0.5
Diluted EPS ($)$(1.01) $0.47 $0.03
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(2.5) $15.2 $24.7
Non‑GAAP Variable Profit Margin (%)57% 65% 69%

Notes: Q3 Adj. EBITDA margin was 27% per management commentary .

Revenue Mix

Revenue Component ($M)Q3 2023Q3 2024
Service‑based revenue, net$59.2 $83.4
Transaction‑based revenue, net$6.6 $9.1
Total operating revenues, net$65.8 $92.5

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ3 2024YoY ChangeQoQ Change
New Members854,000 +4% n/a
CAC ($)$15 −14% −2%
Monthly Transacting Members2.4M +23% n/a
ExtraCash Originations$1.4B +46% +15%
28‑Day Delinquency Rate1.78% −64 bps −25 bps
Dave Card Spend$407M +19% n/a
ARPUNot disclosed (level)+14% +11%

Liquidity and Capital

  • Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, investments and restricted cash: $76.7M at 9/30/24 vs $89.7M at 6/30/24; decline due to ~$37.7M higher receivables from quarter‑end timing; no increased facility utilization in Q3 .
  • Credit facility: $75M drawn; amended post‑quarter to increase advance rate by 250 bps (facility size $150M; maturity Dec 15, 2026; pricing unchanged) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
GAAP Operating Revenues, Net ($M)FY 2024$310–$325 $340–$343 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2024$40–$50 $71–$74 Raised

Management commentary: “record Adjusted EBITDA margin of 27%” in Q3; strong ExtraCash demand, solid credit, and efficient CAC underpin guidance raise .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1–Q2 2024)Current Period (Q3 2024)Trend
AI/Technology (CashAI, DaveGPT)CashAI and DaveGPT highlighted as core levers for underwriting, retention, and support cost efficiency; delinquency improvement and operating leverage noted . Q2 release referenced CashAI’s role in loss rates and margins .Full‑quarter impact of new underwriting model; variable margin up ~1,300 bps y/y; delinquency 1.78% with 46% y/y origination growth .Improving
Marketing/CACQ1: CAC $16; plan to ramp spend with sub‑6‑month gross profit paybacks . Q2: CAC fell to $15; continued efficiency .CAC $15 (−14% y/y, −2% q/q); new members +4% with ~10% less marketing; environment rational .Improving
Product Performance (ExtraCash)Q1: >$1B originations; delinquency -77 bps y/y to 1.83%; percent-based fees scaled monetization . Q2: originations +37% y/y to $1.2B .Originations +46% y/y to $1.4B; avg disbursement +17% y/y; strong sequential +15% .Improving
Banking/Payments (Dave Card, deposits)Q1: Card spend +34% y/y to $394M; building direct deposit; ~30% of ExtraCash to Dave Card . Q2: Card spend +28% y/y to $388M .Card spend +19% y/y to $407M; focus to elevate Dave Card in 2025; ~30% of originations go to Dave Card affirmed .Stable to improving
Regulatory/LegalQ1: No major actions disclosed on call.FTC lawsuit acknowledged; $7M accrual booked; management expects to defend vigorously and made no forecast changes .Emerging headwind
Bank Partner DiversificationNot previously announced.LOI with new sponsor bank (public parent) to diversify relationships; costs viewed comparable; potential to enable new credit product in 2025 .Positive development

Management Commentary

  • “Our fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating year-over-year revenue growth resulted from double-digit increases in both ARPU and monthly transacting members... This resulted in 63% sequential growth in Adjusted EBITDA.” — Jason Wilk, CEO .
  • “With 41% year-over-year revenue growth and record Adjusted EBITDA margin of 27%, we believe we continue to demonstrate our ability to drive both growth and profitability... We are once again raising our Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for full year 2024 to $340–$343 million and $71–$74 million, respectively.” — Kyle Beilman, CFO .
  • On LOI/new sponsor bank: “We believe that the costs are comparable between the 2 banks... this bank can be a very key partner in our ability to get [a new credit product] off the ground.” — Management during Q&A .
  • On FTC matter: “We believe we have a strong defense… [the suit] pertains to our consumer disclosures and how the company acquires consent… we have not made any changes to our financial forecast as a result of the FTC's action.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Sponsor bank LOI economics and product roadmap: Costs seen comparable; LOI expected to support a new credit product launch in 2025 .
  • Dave Card growth levers: Plan to merge ExtraCash and banking incentives (including potential rewards) to drive top‑of‑wallet; not reliant on interchange as primary monetization .
  • Credit performance drivers: CashAI model with more variables and longer tenure boosts loss rates and retention; MTM retention at all‑time highs supports better credit .
  • Balancing growth and margins: Sub‑6‑month gross profit paybacks enable marketing investment while maintaining profitability; Q3 Adj. EBITDA margin 27%; high flow‑through of incremental gross profit to EBITDA .
  • Fee model testing: Evaluating a simplified mandatory fee for ExtraCash (replacing tips and instant transfer fees to Dave checking) with goal to maintain/exceed LTV; subscription pricing tests separate and ongoing .
  • Attach metrics: ~30% of ExtraCash originations to Dave Card remains steady .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for revenue/EPS was unavailable for DAVE this quarter due to a missing mapping, so we cannot quantify beat/miss vs Street. Management stated they “exceeded growth and profitability expectations,” and raised FY24 guidance on the call and in the release .
  • Implication: Street models may need to move higher on FY24 revenue ($340–$343M) and Adj. EBITDA ($71–$74M), and potentially on FY25 if momentum in CAC efficiency and credit holds .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • High‑quality growth: Q3 revenue +41% y/y with record variable margin (69%) and 27% Adj. EBITDA margin underscore operating leverage from CashAI and disciplined CAC .
  • Positive 2024 reset: Guidance raised materially; execution suggests upside potential if quarter‑end provision quirks normalize and credit quality persists .
  • Strategic bank diversification: LOI adds optionality and may accelerate product innovation (new credit offering) without sacrificing unit economics .
  • Monetization evolution: Testing a mandatory ExtraCash fee could simplify the model, reduce regulatory focus areas, and sustain or lift LTV while ARPU trends remain positive .
  • Near‑term watch items: FTC litigation path (with $7M accrual booked), quarter‑end provision timing effects in Q4, and liquidity balances as receivables fluctuate with timing .
  • 2025 setup: Management plans to invest more in Dave Card primacy (e.g., rewards, direct deposit) to deepen engagement and diversify revenue while maintaining CAC discipline .

Additional source documents consulted for trend context:

  • Q2 2024 press release: revenue $80.1M (+31% y/y), Adj. EBITDA $15.2M, variable margin 65% .
  • Q1 2024 earnings call: revenue $73.6M (+25% y/y), Adj. EBITDA $13.2M; details on CashAI/DaveGPT and CAC framework .
  • Preliminary Q3 results release (11/5): reiterated Q3 revenue $92.5M, net income $0.5M incl. $7M legal accrual, Adj. EBITDA $24.7M .

*Consensus values were unavailable from S&P Global due to a mapping issue; thus, we are unable to provide estimate comparisons this quarter.