DI
Dave Inc./DE (DAVE)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record Q3 results with GAAP revenue $92.5M (+41% y/y), GAAP net income $0.5M (vs. $(12.1)M y/y), diluted EPS $0.03, and Adjusted EBITDA $24.7M; non‑GAAP variable profit margin reached 69% (up ~1,200–1,300 bps y/y) .
- Management raised FY24 guidance: revenue to $340–$343M (from $310–$325M) and Adjusted EBITDA to $71–$74M (from $40–$50M), citing strong ExtraCash demand, credit performance, and CAC efficiency; Adj. EBITDA margin in Q3 was 27% per management .
- Strategic LOI signed with a publicly traded parent sponsor bank to diversify bank relationships and enable next‑gen products; costs seen as comparable to existing partner and potential to support a new credit product in 2025 .
- Estimate context: Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable for DAVE this quarter due to missing mapping, so we cannot quantify beats/misses vs consensus.*
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Accelerating top-line and profitability: revenue +41% y/y to $92.5M; Adj. EBITDA +$27.2M y/y to $24.7M; management highlighted fourth straight quarter of accelerating y/y revenue growth and 63% q/q Adj. EBITDA growth .
- Credit performance and margins: 28‑day delinquency improved to 1.78% (−64 bps y/y), supporting a record 69% variable profit margin; provision for credit losses fell 14% y/y to $13.7M despite 46% y/y origination growth, driven by CashAI underwriting .
- Efficient growth: MTMs +23% to 2.4M; CAC down 14% y/y to $15 with 4% more new members (854k); Dave Card spend +19% y/y to $407M; ARPU +14% y/y and +11% q/q .
What Went Wrong
- Legal accrual weighed on GAAP results: Q3 included a $7.0M accrual related to the FTC matter; adjusted metrics exclude this .
- Liquidity optics: cash, equivalents, marketable securities, investments and restricted cash decreased to $76.7M from $89.7M q/q due primarily to a $37.7M quarter‑end timing increase in ExtraCash receivables (day‑of‑week dynamic) .
- Outlook caveat on provisions: management expects quarter‑end calendar effects to lift loss provision in Q4 (ends on a Tuesday), potentially offsetting solid underlying credit performance near‑term .
Financial Results
Headline P&L vs Prior Periods
Notes: Q3 Adj. EBITDA margin was 27% per management commentary .
Revenue Mix
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Liquidity and Capital
- Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, investments and restricted cash: $76.7M at 9/30/24 vs $89.7M at 6/30/24; decline due to ~$37.7M higher receivables from quarter‑end timing; no increased facility utilization in Q3 .
- Credit facility: $75M drawn; amended post‑quarter to increase advance rate by 250 bps (facility size $150M; maturity Dec 15, 2026; pricing unchanged) .
Guidance Changes
Management commentary: “record Adjusted EBITDA margin of 27%” in Q3; strong ExtraCash demand, solid credit, and efficient CAC underpin guidance raise .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating year-over-year revenue growth resulted from double-digit increases in both ARPU and monthly transacting members... This resulted in 63% sequential growth in Adjusted EBITDA.” — Jason Wilk, CEO .
- “With 41% year-over-year revenue growth and record Adjusted EBITDA margin of 27%, we believe we continue to demonstrate our ability to drive both growth and profitability... We are once again raising our Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for full year 2024 to $340–$343 million and $71–$74 million, respectively.” — Kyle Beilman, CFO .
- On LOI/new sponsor bank: “We believe that the costs are comparable between the 2 banks... this bank can be a very key partner in our ability to get [a new credit product] off the ground.” — Management during Q&A .
- On FTC matter: “We believe we have a strong defense… [the suit] pertains to our consumer disclosures and how the company acquires consent… we have not made any changes to our financial forecast as a result of the FTC's action.” — CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- Sponsor bank LOI economics and product roadmap: Costs seen comparable; LOI expected to support a new credit product launch in 2025 .
- Dave Card growth levers: Plan to merge ExtraCash and banking incentives (including potential rewards) to drive top‑of‑wallet; not reliant on interchange as primary monetization .
- Credit performance drivers: CashAI model with more variables and longer tenure boosts loss rates and retention; MTM retention at all‑time highs supports better credit .
- Balancing growth and margins: Sub‑6‑month gross profit paybacks enable marketing investment while maintaining profitability; Q3 Adj. EBITDA margin 27%; high flow‑through of incremental gross profit to EBITDA .
- Fee model testing: Evaluating a simplified mandatory fee for ExtraCash (replacing tips and instant transfer fees to Dave checking) with goal to maintain/exceed LTV; subscription pricing tests separate and ongoing .
- Attach metrics: ~30% of ExtraCash originations to Dave Card remains steady .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus for revenue/EPS was unavailable for DAVE this quarter due to a missing mapping, so we cannot quantify beat/miss vs Street. Management stated they “exceeded growth and profitability expectations,” and raised FY24 guidance on the call and in the release .
- Implication: Street models may need to move higher on FY24 revenue ($340–$343M) and Adj. EBITDA ($71–$74M), and potentially on FY25 if momentum in CAC efficiency and credit holds .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- High‑quality growth: Q3 revenue +41% y/y with record variable margin (69%) and 27% Adj. EBITDA margin underscore operating leverage from CashAI and disciplined CAC .
- Positive 2024 reset: Guidance raised materially; execution suggests upside potential if quarter‑end provision quirks normalize and credit quality persists .
- Strategic bank diversification: LOI adds optionality and may accelerate product innovation (new credit offering) without sacrificing unit economics .
- Monetization evolution: Testing a mandatory ExtraCash fee could simplify the model, reduce regulatory focus areas, and sustain or lift LTV while ARPU trends remain positive .
- Near‑term watch items: FTC litigation path (with $7M accrual booked), quarter‑end provision timing effects in Q4, and liquidity balances as receivables fluctuate with timing .
- 2025 setup: Management plans to invest more in Dave Card primacy (e.g., rewards, direct deposit) to deepen engagement and diversify revenue while maintaining CAC discipline .
Additional source documents consulted for trend context:
- Q2 2024 press release: revenue $80.1M (+31% y/y), Adj. EBITDA $15.2M, variable margin 65% .
- Q1 2024 earnings call: revenue $73.6M (+25% y/y), Adj. EBITDA $13.2M; details on CashAI/DaveGPT and CAC framework .
- Preliminary Q3 results release (11/5): reiterated Q3 revenue $92.5M, net income $0.5M incl. $7M legal accrual, Adj. EBITDA $24.7M .
*Consensus values were unavailable from S&P Global due to a mapping issue; thus, we are unable to provide estimate comparisons this quarter.