Executive Summary

Revenue beat and margin expansion: Q2 revenue was $915.2M, up ~9% sequentially vs Q1 and above Wall Street consensus of $879.6M*, with GAAP gross margin 25.6% and non-GAAP 26.5% (+120 bps sequential) .
EPS and EBITDA outperformed consensus: Adjusted EPS was $0.60 vs $0.58* consensus; EBITDA was $103.7M* vs $98.9M* consensus; adjusted EBITDA (company definition) was $111.2M, with 12.2% margin .
Strong order intake/backlog and FCF: Backlog rose to ~$980M, order entry up ~10% YoY, and the company delivered its third consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow ($12.6M), reaffirming FY25 guidance and trending to the high end for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and FCF .
Capital return and catalysts: Executed ~$30M buybacks in Q2 and $38M YTD under the $100M authorization; management highlighted lean execution, AI-driven retail solutions, and branch automation wins as second-half growth drivers while monitoring tariff and FX volatility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Backlog and orders underpin H2 revenue: “Product backlog increased to ~$980 million, with order entry up ~10% YoY, supporting strong second-half revenue outlook.”
Margin and cash generation improved: Gross margin expanded sequentially (GAAP +150 bps, non-GAAP +120 bps) with third straight quarter of positive FCF; adjusted EBITDA reached $111.2M .
Management confidence and execution: “We delivered a solid quarter… finished the first half of 2025 on a high note… first time Diebold Nixdorf has produced positive first-half free cash flow in the company's history.” — CEO Octavio Marquez .

What Went Wrong

YoY revenue decline and FX headwinds: Total revenue declined 2.6% YoY (constant currency -4.6%), with Banking product -11.1% YoY and Retail services -2.9% YoY; management again flagged FX volatility (EUR/BRL) .
GAAP profitability pressure from FX: Q2 recorded $22.2M foreign exchange loss (non-cash), contributing to lower GAAP operating margin vs prior year (6.1% vs 7.5%) .
Tariff risk persists: Company reiterated monitoring tariff impacts; net tariff impact assumed at $5–$10M within FY25 outlook under current conditions .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$939.7	$841.1	$915.2
GAAP Gross Margin (%)	25.9%	24.1%	25.6%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (%)	26.0%	25.3%	26.5%
GAAP Operating Profit ($M)	$70.7	$29.6	$56.2
GAAP Operating Margin (%)	7.5%	3.5%	6.1%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$118.8	$87.3	$111.2
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	12.6%	10.4%	12.2%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.40	N/A	$0.33
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.80	N/A	$0.60
Free Cash Flow ($M, non-GAAP)	$(16.1)	$6.1	$12.6

Segment revenue breakdown (YoY and CC):

Segment	Q2 2024 ($M)	Q2 2024 CC ($M)	Q2 2025 ($M)	% YoY	% YoY CC
Banking Services	$401.5	$404.4	$407.4	+1.5%	+0.7%
Banking Products	$305.9	$310.4	$271.8	-11.1%	-12.4%
Total Banking	$707.4	$714.8	$679.2	-4.0%	-5.0%
Retail Services	$139.2	$146.5	$135.2	-2.9%	-7.7%
Retail Products	$93.1	$97.7	$100.8	+8.3%	+3.2%
Total Retail	$232.3	$244.2	$236.0	+1.6%	-3.4%
Total Services	$540.7	$550.9	$542.6	+0.4%	-1.5%
Total Products	$399.0	$408.1	$372.6	-6.6%	-8.7%
Total Revenue	$939.7	$959.0	$915.2	-2.6%	-4.6%

Key KPIs:

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Product backlog ($M)	~900	~980
Order entry YoY	+36% (product orders)	~+10%
Net leverage (Net Debt/TTM Adj. EBITDA)	1.5x	1.5x
Share repurchases	~$8M in Mar (Q1)	~$30M in Q2; $38M YTD
Net cash from operations ($M)	$15.7 (Q1 trend slide)	$30.0

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenue	FY 2025	Flat to up low single digits (constant currency); 45–55 H1/H2 split	Flat to up low single digits; 46–54 H1/H2 split; Retail recovery in H2; FX volatility (EUR/BRL)	Maintained; cadence refined
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$470M–$490M	$470M–$490M; trending higher end	Maintained; leaning higher
Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	$190M–$210M	$190M–$210M; trending higher end	Maintained; leaning higher
Net tariff impact (context)	FY 2025	N/A	Estimated $5M–$10M under current conditions	New detail
FX impact (context)	FY 2025	Unfavorable ~3%–4% on revenue (prior)	Continued FX volatility (EUR/BRL)	Maintained caution
Capital returns	FY 2025	$100M authorization announced	$38M repurchased YTD; $62M remaining	Executing program

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24 and Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
AI/technology in Retail (Vynamic Smart Vision)	Showcased AI to combat shrink; pilots underway; strong fraud reduction in Europe	Continued AI traction; Germany’s EDEKA Paschmann and Beckesepp deploy age verification and produce recognition	Strengthening adoption
Branch Automation (Banking)	Launch planned; TCR introduction; U.S. pipeline building	Launch of Branch Automation Solutions portfolio; early wins and fit-for-purpose devices momentum	Executing and scaling
Supply chain/lean operations	Lean kaizens across facilities; safety/quality gains	Additional manufacturing consolidation in North Canton; measurable safety/quality/efficiency improvements	Continuous improvement
Tariffs/macro	Local-to-local footprint mitigates impact; preliminary framework	Reaffirms guidance including tariff context; net impact estimated $5–$10M	Managed risk
Regional trends (Banking)	Broad strength: U.S., Europe, Brazil, APAC; recycler adoption rising	APMEA delivered 7 of top 10 wins; Banking steady; product mix favorability	Momentum sustained
FX / currency volatility	Notable FX headwind to revenue; non-cash FX swings	Q2 non-cash FX loss $22.2M; continued FX volatility flagged	Persistent headwind

Management Commentary

“Once again, we delivered a solid quarter… finished the first half of 2025 on a high note… first time Diebold Nixdorf has produced positive first-half free cash flow in the company's history.” — Octavio Marquez, CEO .
“Reaffirming 2025 guidance… trending toward the higher end of the range… while being mindful of uncertainties in the macro environment.” — Management release .
“Backlog increased to ~$980M… strong order entry growth of ~~10% YoY… executing on $100M repurchase authorization (~~$30M in Q2).” — Company highlights .
ECB digital euro collaboration to integrate Vynamic Transaction Middleware across ATM/POS/e-commerce channels reinforces payments innovation leadership .

Q&A Highlights

Banking demand and recycler adoption: Prior quarters detailed broad-based banking strength across U.S./Europe/LatAm/APAC and early-stage recycler cycle with higher ASPs and recurring service/software attach; this underpins H2 trajectory .
Retail recovery path: Management reiterated pilots/proof-of-concepts with major North American retailers, leveraging AI-driven shrink reduction and open software architecture to support H2 recovery .
Tariff framework: Mitigation levers span lean productivity, supplier negotiation/alternatives, pricing, and SG&A discipline; FY25 guidance embeds ~50% mitigation of a ~$20M gross impact (context from prior quarter) .
FX impact is non-cash/non-operational: Large FX swings tied to intercompany loans (EUR/BRL) were emphasized as non-core to operations, with reversals monitored intra-year .

Estimates Context

Metric (Q2 2025)	Consensus	Actual	Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD)	$879.6M*	$915.2M	Beat
Primary EPS ($)	$0.58*	$0.60	Beat
EBITDA ($USD)	$98.9M*	$103.7M*	Beat

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: Company-reported adjusted EBITDA was $111.2M in Q2 2025 (12.2% margin) ; S&P’s EBITDA definition may differ from company “Adjusted EBITDA.”

Where estimates may need to adjust:

Raised probability of top-end FY25 outcomes (revenue/adjusted EBITDA/FCF) given Q2 beat, backlog strength, and sequential margin expansion; watch tariff/FX sensitivities embedded in guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q2 print was clean: revenue and adjusted EPS beat, margin expansion, and third straight positive FCF; trend supports H2 weighted growth and high-end guidance bias .
Banking momentum intact with APMEA strength and branch automation/teller recycler initiatives; product mix favors margin trajectory .
Retail is stabilizing with sequential improvement and AI-driven solutions gaining commercial traction in Europe and expanding into North America pilots—key watch item for H2 .
Lean execution is delivering measurable cost/quality improvements; expect continued operating leverage and service margin gains .
FX and tariffs remain the principal exogenous risks; guidance explicitly embeds tariff assumptions and FX vigilance, keeping the outlook credible .
Capital returns are active (YTD $38M repurchased; $62M remaining) with a fortress balance sheet (1.5x net leverage) providing flexibility .
Near-term trading: favor positive estimate revisions and multiple support on H2 delivery; medium-term thesis hinges on secular self-service tailwinds, recurring service/software attach, and disciplined capital allocation .

S&P Global disclaimer: All asterisk-marked (*) estimate/actual values above are retrieved from S&P Global consensus data.

DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc (DBD)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary