DI
DocGo Inc. (DCGO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue declined to $96.0M, driven by the wind-down of migrant-related programs; GAAP gross margin compressed to 28.2% and adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $3.9M .
- Management removed all non‑migrant Government Population Health revenue from FY2025 guidance and cut revenue outlook to $300–$330M from $410–$450M; adjusted EBITDA outlook moved from ~5% margin to a loss of $20–$30M, citing public policy and municipal uncertainty .
- Core franchises showed resilience: Transportation Services revenue grew year over year to $50.8M with record trip volume; Payer & Provider assigned lives surpassed 900k, and patient NPS remained strong at 86 .
- Cash generation and balance sheet: Operating cash flow was +$9.7M in Q1; cash and restricted cash ended at ~$103.1M; 1.95M shares were repurchased for ~$5.8M .
- Key incremental themes: aggressive SG&A cuts, AR collections (migrant-related AR ~$120M at quarter-end) supporting positive cash flow; M&A optionality (PTI Health acquisition) to expand in-home diagnostics .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Transportation Services revenue rose to $50.8M YoY with record trip volume; segment adjusted gross margin was 33.3% and improved >300bps sequentially vs Q4 2024, supported by wins in multiple markets .
- Payer & Provider momentum: assigned lives exceeded 900k; management highlighted tripled care gap visit volumes vs last year and an NPS of 86, positioning this vertical for higher long‑term margins as clinician utilization improves .
- Positive operating cash flow (+$9.7M) despite a net loss, aided by AR collections; cash and restricted cash remained >$100M, enabling buybacks and targeted M&A (PTI Health) .
Quote: “We plan to aggressively cut SG&A over the next several quarters, and anticipate positive cash flow through the balance of the year driven by collections of our outstanding migrant-related receivables.” — CFO Norm Rosenberg .
What Went Wrong
- Top‑line miss vs consensus and sharp guidance reset: Q1 revenue of $96.0M vs S&P Global consensus of $104.2M*, EPS of -$0.09 vs -$0.04*; management removed non‑migrant Government Population Health from FY2025 guidance due to policy‑driven uncertainty .
- Margin pressure: GAAP gross margin fell to 28.2% and adjusted gross margin to 32.1% vs prior year; early-stage Payer & Provider mix diluted Mobile Health margins during scale‑up .
- Elevated SG&A as a percent of revenue (46.7% vs 26.8% YoY) during transition off migrant programs; adjusted EBITDA swung to a -$3.9M loss from +$24.1M YoY .
Financial Results
Quarterly P&L vs Prior Periods and Consensus
Note: Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment Breakdown (Q1 2025)
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We have decided to remove all non-migrant Government Population Health revenue — and any related projections — from our 2025 guidance… Our Hospital and Payer & Provider verticals continue to perform in line with expectations.” — CEO Lee Bienstock .
- “We plan to aggressively cut SG&A over the next several quarters, and anticipate positive cash flow through the balance of the year driven by collections of our outstanding migrant-related receivables.” — CFO Norm Rosenberg .
- “Our Medical Transportation business… had record trip volume in the first quarter of 2025 and… we believe we can approach 700,000 transports by the end of 2026.” — CEO Lee Bienstock .
Q&A Highlights
- Government vertical outlook: Management will report any material non‑migrant municipal revenues as upside to guidance due to RFP delays and paused launches; quarterly revenue trajectory likely dips through Q3 before a modest Q4 “blip” .
- Payer & Provider ramp: Still onboarding new programs; margins sub‑optimal during scale but targeting ~40% gross margin in 2026; clinician utilization running ~30% higher early in Q2 than Q1 .
- Guidance prudence: FY2025 “building in” conservatism; line‑item expectations ($225M transport, $50M payer, $50M migrant) sum to ~$325M vs $300–$330M range .
- Tariffs/inflation sensitivity: Fleet procurement vs maintenance decisions mitigate risks; fuel prices a potential tailwind; medical equipment tariff risk monitored .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $96.0M vs $104.2M* (miss), EPS -$0.09 vs -$0.04* (miss), EBITDA -$10.2M vs $1.8M* (miss), reflecting the sharper‑than‑expected migrant wind-down and early-stage payer mix effects .
- Forward quarters (S&P Global): Q3 2025 consensus revenue ~$69.2M* and EPS -$0.13*; Q4 2025 revenue ~$70.2M* and EPS -$0.14* — trajectory consistent with management’s expectation of lower revenue through Q3 before a modest Q4 uptick .
Note: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term reset: Guidance removal of non‑migrant government revenue shifts focus to core Transportation and Payer & Provider businesses; expect revenue trough through Q3 with Q4 stabilization per management’s trajectory commentary .
- Margin inflection depends on mix and scale: Early-stage payer programs weigh on Mobile Health margins; clinician utilization improvements and program density are the key margin levers over the next 12–18 months .
- Liquidity supports execution: Positive operating cash flow and AR collections (~$120M migrant AR) plus >$100M cash provide runway for SG&A rationalization, selective M&A (PTI Health), and buybacks .
- Transportation is the earnings anchor: Record volume, sequential margin gains, and ~$225M FY revenue target underscore defensibility while payer ramps .
- Watch the government pipeline for optionality: Any municipal work in 2025 would be reported as upside to guidance; monitor RFP progress and contract launch timing .
- KPIs to track: Assigned lives and visit volumes in Payer & Provider, clinician utilization, segment adjusted gross margins, SG&A as % of revenue, AR collection cadence .
- Risk framework: Policy/macro-driven uncertainty in government vertical, mix-dependent margin pressures, and inflation/tariffs on fleet; partial offsets from fuel, tech-enabled efficiencies, and contract wins .