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DocGo Inc. (DCGO)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue of $70.8M declined 49% YoY due to the planned wind-down of migrant programs, but non‑migrant “base” revenue grew 8% YoY; transportation set a quarterly revenue record while non‑migrant mobile health grew >20% YoY . Adjusted gross margin was 33.0% (up vs Q2’s 31.6%), though GAAP net loss widened on impairments and insurance charges .
  • 2025 guidance tightened to revenue of $315–$320M and adjusted EBITDA loss of $25–$28M; 2026 guidance introduced at revenue of $280–$300M with losses front‑half weighted and exit on an adjusted EBITDA run‑rate positive trajectory; 2026 assumes zero migrant revenue and ~2/3 transport, ~1/3 mobile health mix .
  • Liquidity strengthened: debt repaid, balance sheet effectively debt‑free; Q3 operating cash flow of $1.7M; migrant A/R fell to ~$37M (≈1/3 of total), with ~96% collected to date since program inception .
  • Strategic catalysts: acquisition of SteadyMD (50‑state virtual care) expected to contribute ~$25M 2026 revenue and enable hybrid virtual/mobile model; launch of longitudinal care for 10,000 members in CA and a new care gap program for ~10,000 members in NM expand payer-provider footprint .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, Q3 revenue modestly beat while Primary EPS (S&P basis) was better than expected; GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.28, impacted by $16.7M of non‑cash impairments and ~$5.2M insurance costs .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Transportation momentum: $50.1M revenue (+$2.1M YoY) with highest utilization since Q1’24; management plans to hire 700–800 EMS staff to capture ~26,000 outsourced trips embedded in contracts .
    • Payer-provider growth: non‑migrant mobile health +23% YoY; care gap closure and transitions of care up ~320% YoY; remote patient monitoring at ~$15M ARR with >10% adjusted EBITDA contribution .
    • Strategic platform expansion: SteadyMD acquisition adds 50‑state virtual care and >500 clinicians, enabling DocGo to “bring the capabilities of a doctor’s office into a patient’s living room” and support new longitudinal care deployments .

  • What Went Wrong

    • GAAP profitability: net loss of $29.7M (vs. $4.5M income LY) driven by $16.7M of non‑cash impairments and ~$5.2M in insurance expenses tied to prior‑year programs, depressing margins .
    • Mobile health mix headwind: mobile health revenue fell to $20.7M (from $90.7M LY) due to migrant wind‑down; adjusted gross margin improved sequentially but remained below LY as early‑stage care gap investments weighed on mix .
    • SG&A and investment drag: management continues to right‑size SG&A; early‑stage care gap/primary care investment expected to abate in 2026 but weighed on 2025 EBITDA and margins .

Financial Results

  • GAAP and non‑GAAP results (chronological, oldest → newest)
MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)$96.0 $80.4 $70.8
GAAP Gross Margin %28.2% 26.7% 20.0%
Adjusted Gross Margin %32.1% 31.6% 33.0%
GAAP Diluted EPS-$0.09 -$0.11 -$0.28
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)-$3.9 -$6.1 -$7.2
  • YoY snapshot (Q3 only)
MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)$138.7 $70.8
GAAP Gross Margin %33.0% 20.0%
Adjusted Gross Margin %36.0% 33.0%
GAAP Diluted EPS$0.05 -$0.28
  • Versus S&P Global consensus (Q3 2025)
MetricConsensusActualBeat/Miss
Revenue ($)$69.16M*$70.81M Beat
Primary EPS (S&P basis)-$0.13*-$0.07*Beat

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

  • Segment performance (Q3 2025)
SegmentRevenue ($M)YoYAdj. Gross Margin %
Transportation Services$50.1 +$2.1M YoY 31.7%
Mobile Health Services$20.7 -$70.0M YoY 36.2%
  • KPIs and balance sheet
KPIQ3 2025
Cash, cash equiv. + restricted cash + investments ≈ $95.2M
Operating cash flow $1.7M
Credit line repaid; balance sheet debt‑free
Migrant A/R ≈ $37M (~1/3 of AR); ~96% of total migrant A/R collected to date
Record volumes across business lines; US medical transport +2.5% YoY; care gap & transitions +320% YoY; mobile phlebotomy +11% YoY; RPM +6% YoY

Notes: GAAP loss impacted by ~$5.2M insurance costs (workers’ comp true‑up and a 2022 auto claim settlement) and $16.7M non‑cash impairments (intangibles and goodwill) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$300–$330M $315–$320M Tightened, effectively raised midpoint
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025($20)–($30)M ($25)–($28)M Narrowed range
RevenueFY 2026N/A$280–$300M Introduced
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2026N/A($15)–($25)M (loss; majority 1H) Introduced
Exit Run‑RateFY 2026N/AAdj. EBITDA positive exit at top‑end revenue Introduced
Migrant RevenueFY 2026N/A$0 assumed Introduced
Mix (Rev)FY 2026N/A~2/3 transport; ~1/3 mobile health Introduced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2025 (prior two quarters)Q2 2025 (prior quarter)Q3 2025 (current)Trend
Migrant program wind‑down & A/RCut 2025 guide; removed non‑migrant municipal population health from guidance Cash up to $128.7M; migrant A/R ~$54M expecting collections Migrant A/R ~$37M; ~96% collected to date; 2026 assumes $0 migrant revenue Transition largely completed; collections nearing completion
Transportation utilization & staffingRecord transports; new TX contract Launch with large NYC academic system in Q3 Highest utilization since Q1’24; plan to hire 700–800 EMS to internalize ~26k trips Capacity expansion to monetize embedded demand
Payer‑provider ramp (care gaps, primary, transitions)Care gap visits ~3x YoY; growth focus Surpassed 1.2M assigned patients; new programs Care gap & transitions +320% YoY; longitudinal care for 10k CA members Broadening scope from gaps to longitudinal care
Remote patient monitoring (RPM)—Expansion momentum ~$15M ARR; >10% adj. EBITDA margin; cardiology‑centric focus Scaling with attractive margins
Technology platformEnhanced transport tech in Q1 —Epic‑integrated transport management as moat/efficiency lever Differentiation via platform integration
M&A / Virtual care——Acquired SteadyMD (50‑state virtual care), ~25M 2025 revenue run‑rate; synergy with mobile clinicians Building hybrid virtual/mobile model
Macro/hospital budgetsPolicy uncertainty noted —Hospital budget caution offset by cost‑saving value prop; outsourcing interest rising Value proposition resonating amid constraints

Management Commentary

  • “We have a bold vision of building a company that brings the capabilities of a doctor's office into a patient's living room.” — CEO Lee Bienstock .
  • “At the top end of our revenue guidance range for 2026, we would expect to exit the year on an Adjusted EBITDA positive run rate.” — CFO Norm Rosenberg .
  • “Each of our service lines, with the exception of our care gap closure and primary care offerings, is Adjusted EBITDA positive on a contribution basis.” — CEO .
  • “During the third quarter… we paid off the outstanding amounts under our line of credit… Our balance sheet is now debt‑free for the first time since late 2023.” — CFO .
  • “Adjusted gross margins for the medical transportation segment were 31.7%… Mobile health … 36.2% … [and] would have been above 40% … excluding the care gap closure business.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Margin trajectory/bridge: Q3 adjusted gross margin at 33% (above Q1/Q2) seen as a proxy near‑term; 2026 modeled to improve each quarter with SG&A reductions and transport projects boosting margins .
  • 2026 losses timing: Losses weighted to 1H; smaller loss in Q3 and potential positive Q4; revenue expected to rise sequentially through the year .
  • Revenue mix: 2026 guide assumes zero migrant revenue; approx. two‑thirds transport, one‑third mobile health; guide excludes new wins/M&A .
  • SteadyMD contribution: ~$5M+ Q4 revenue contribution, slightly EBITDA negative near‑term; ~$25M 2026 contribution assumed in payer‑provider guide .
  • RPM reimbursement focus: Cardiology‑centric RPM positions well versus payer rollbacks outside cardiology; continued expansion from cardiology into other specialties .
  • Demand/Bookings: Mid‑single‑digit sequential growth in transport trips; record volumes across business lines in Q3 .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus: Q3 revenue ~$69.2M vs actual $70.8M (beat); S&P Primary EPS -$0.13 vs actual -$0.07 (beat on S&P EPS basis). GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.28 due to non‑recurring items and impairments, explaining divergence from S&P’s Primary EPS lens .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.

  • Implications: Street likely nudges revenue run‑rate upward given base-business growth, but GAAP EPS expectations may require reconciliation to non‑recurring items (impairments, insurance) and investment cadence in care gap/primary care .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Base business is growing: non‑migrant revenue +8% YoY with transportation at record volumes and non‑migrant mobile health >20% YoY, supporting 2026 base growth despite migrant roll‑off .
  • Margin work continues: sequential adjusted gross margin improved to 33%; 2026 modeled for quarterly improvement with SG&A actions and transport utilization gains .
  • Liquidity/de‑risking: debt repaid; migrant A/R collections advanced to ~96% to date, with ~$37M remaining at Q3‑end .
  • Strategic expansion: SteadyMD + longitudinal care programs broaden TAM and enable hybrid virtual/mobile delivery across all 50 states .
  • 2026 set‑up: zero migrant revenue assumed, revenue $280–$300M, majority losses in 1H, with exit on adjusted EBITDA positive run‑rate at the high end—watch quarterly cadence .
  • Stock catalysts: evidence of transport capacity adds converting outsourced trips; RPM contract wins; longitudinal care ramp; continued SG&A reductions and collections progress .
  • Risks: early‑stage care gap/primary care investments press mobile health margins; one‑offs (insurance, impairments) impacted GAAP EPS; hospital budget uncertainty, though value proposition targets cost savings .