Donaldson Company - Earnings Call - Q4 2025

Executive Summary

• Q4 FY2025 delivered record sales and robust profitability: revenue $980.7M (+4.8% YoY), GAAP diluted EPS $0.97 (+7.8% YoY), adjusted EPS $1.03 (+9.6% YoY). Sequentially, revenue rose from $940.1M in Q3 and $870.0M in Q2. Management attributed gross margin compression to tariff-related inflation and LIFO inventory valuation effects, partially offset by operating expense leverage.
• Results beat Wall Street consensus: EPS $1.03 vs $1.017*, revenue $980.7M vs $951.6M*, continuing an estimate beat trend from Q3 (EPS $0.99 vs $0.947*, revenue $940.1M vs $933.4M*) after a Q2 miss (EPS $0.83 vs $0.848*, revenue $870.0M vs $908.3M*). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
• FY2026 guidance targets another record year: sales +1–5% to ~$3.8B midpoint; EPS $3.92–$4.08; operating margin 16.1–16.7%; FCF conversion 85–95%; share repurchases 2–3% of shares; tax rate 23.5–25.5%.
• Stock reaction catalyst: broad-based beats vs consensus and confident FY2026 margin expansion outlook amid tariff headwinds; industrial power generation “super cycle” and aftermarket share gains provide durable growth drivers.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Aftermarket strength and share gains: Mobile aftermarket hit $467.5M (+3.3% YoY) with strong OE and independent channels; CEO highlighted new Mighty Distributing partnership and $1B independent channel milestone, supporting durable growth.
  • Industrial Filtration Solutions acceleration: IFS sales $262.4M (+10.5% YoY) on dust collection demand in Europe/US and power generation project timing; CFO underscored record segment pretax margin 20.9% (+80 bps YoY).
  • Life Sciences improving mix: sales $82.4M (+14.1% YoY) with strong Food & Beverage and Disk Drive; pretax margin improved to 5.3% from -1.2% on cost optimization and higher-margin legacy businesses.

• What Went Wrong

  • Gross margin compression: GAAP gross margin fell 130 bps YoY to 34.5% (adjusted 34.8% vs 36.2% prior), driven by tariff-related inflation and LIFO valuation impacts (management indicated underlying gross margin would be roughly flat excluding LIFO).
  • On-Road softness: Mobile On-Road sales dropped 20.1% YoY on lower truck production, especially in the U.S., limiting Mobile segment growth to +2.3% YoY.
  • Tariffs and macro remain fluid: CFO reiterated plan to be profit-dollar neutral over time via region-for-region footprint, USMCA qualification for ~90% of goods from Mexico, and pricing “muscle,” but near-term inflationary effects pressured results.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Hello and thank you for standing by. My name is Tiffany and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Donaldson Company Q4 FY25 earnings webcast. All lines have been placed on mute.

Speaker 2

To prevent any background noise.

Speaker 1

After the Speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press STAR and the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to turn the call over to Sarika Dhadwal, Senior Director of Investor Relations and ESG. Sarika, please go ahead. Good morning.

Speaker 0

Thank you for joining Donaldson Company's fourth quarter.

Speaker 2

Fiscal 2025 earnings conference call.

Speaker 0

With me today are Tod E. Carpenter, Chairman.

Speaker 2

President and CEO and Brad Pogalz, Chief Financial Officer. This morning Tod and Brad will provide a summary of our fourth quarter performance.

Speaker 0

Our outlook for fiscal 2026.

Speaker 2

During today's call we will discuss non-GAAP measures.

Speaker 0

GAAP or adjusted results for fourth quarter 2025.

Speaker 2

Non-GAAP results exclude pre-tax charges of $9.5 million for restructuring and other charges primarily related to footprint optimization.

Speaker 0

Cost reduction initiatives.

Speaker 2

A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP metrics is provided within the schedules attached.

Speaker 0

To this morning's press release, additionally, please keep in mind that any forward looking statements made during this call.

Speaker 2

Are subject to risks and uncertainties, which.

Speaker 0

Are described in our press release and SEC filings. With that, I will now turn the.

Speaker 2

Call over to Tod. Thanks, Sarika. Good morning. Fiscal 2025 was a record year for Donaldson Company as we did what we do best: help our customers solve critical filtration challenges through the delivery of our high-tech solutions, which protect precision equipment and help maintain a cleaner work environment, increasing efficiency, mitigating risks, and reducing downtime. We did this through consistent execution of our strategy and created value for our shareholders. I will start with some full-year highlights, discuss our fourth quarter performance, and touch briefly on our expectations for fiscal 2026. Brad will then detail our financials. Lastly, I will provide some closing remarks before opening the call to questions.

In fiscal 2025, we grew sales to an all-time high of $3.7 billion with growth across all segments, expanded operating profit margin to a record 15.7% with an incremental margin of nearly 30%, delivered earnings per share of $3.68 towards the higher end of the guidance range we laid out at the beginning of the year, returned $465 million to shareholders largely through the repurchase of 4% of our shares outstanding while increasing our dividend 11%, and focused our cost structure, including in Life Sciences, and made progress towards footprint optimization, strengthening our foundation for future profitability while still investing for growth. Our team accomplished a tremendous amount in fiscal 2025 through macro uncertainty and cyclical headwinds. We ended the year on a high note, and I will provide some details on the fourth quarter, including by segment.

In Mobile Solutions, our strength in aftermarket is contributing to record results as we continue to win and gain share in our independent channel, which eclipsed $1 billion in sales this year. Partnerships like NAPA allow us to expand our reach, and we continue to build these types of relationships. For example, in the fourth quarter, we signed a new partnership with Mitei Distributing System of America. Donaldson is Mitei's sole heavy-duty filtration supplier of Donaldson branded products, and we are pleased with the early results. With respect to our largest first fit business within Mobile, off-road sales grew after eight consecutive quarters of declines as we see tangible signs of trough or moving out of trough conditions in the agriculture market. For Industrial Solutions, IFS sales grew double digits. Through our Create Connect Replace service model, I would like to touch on each piece briefly.

Create in dust collection we are building new customer relationships and our OE channel sales hit record levels. Our generation sales were also strong. As we continue to benefit from the Power Gen Super Cycle connect, we are deploying our connected solutions. This quarter we increased the number of connected machines and connected facilities and in fiscal 2026 we expect to grow the number of connected machines over 30%. Through this we are strengthening our customer relationships and building this revenue stream for the future. Replace our razor-to-sell razor blade aftermarket model is working with almost 50% of our quarterly industrial segment sales now driven by higher margin aftermarket sales service. This quarter we acquired our third service business, RPS Associates of New England.

RPS brings 40 years of experience in dust collection services with customers in aerospace, defense, and other metal manufacturing industries and also adds a new geography to our service footprint. Moving to life sciences, food and beverage sales grew over 20% both in new and replacement parts sales. We are winning share through key OEMs and channel partners in this high margin business. In bioprocessing, through our downstream purologic business, we announced the availability of the first manufacturing grade product within the Purexa portfolio to support customers' GMP or good manufacturing processes. The Purexa membrane chromatography products enhance productivity with their high dynamic binding capacity, fast cycle times, and efficient and scalable format, allowing users to process their product more quickly and reduce process costs. Now I'll cover some consolidated company highlights for the quarter.

Overall sales increased 5% year over year to $981 million, driven by volume growth, currency translation benefits, and pricing. Adjusted EPS was $1.03, up approximately 10% year over year. I'm proud of our results and would like to give a special thanks to our global operations team who once again this quarter navigated the difficult macro landscape, including the ever-changing global tariff dynamics. Brad will talk a bit more about the impact from tariffs, but I want to emphasize my confidence in the muscle we have built to address challenges quickly and effectively. Also in the quarter, we progressed on our footprint and cost optimization initiatives. We remain in the heavy lift phase of this work and expect to be mostly complete by the second half of fiscal 2026. Through this we have stayed focused on our customer needs.

On-time delivery rates remain high, and our backlogs support our outlook over multiple quarters. I'm also pleased with our thoughtful expense management while we lay the groundwork for a more efficient operating structure. It is important to note that we are making disciplined growth investments in strategically important areas through our R&D and capital expenditures, including in areas such as solvent recovery and new disk drive technologies in life sciences and air and alternative fuels. Filtration in Mobile Solutions is cementing our leadership position in diversified technology-led filtration. Now I'll provide some detail on fourth quarter sales in Mobile Solutions. Total sales were $588 million, a 2% increase versus prior year. Aftermarket sales were $468 million, up 3%, driven by strong demand in the OE channel from larger customers and market share gains in the independent channel.

On the first fit side, off-road sales of $95 million increased 5% as we cycled against weaker agriculture market conditions in the prior year. On-road sales of $26 million declined 20% as a result of cyclical declines in global truck production. Now on our Mobile Solutions business in China, sales grew 14% year over year with increases in first fit and aftermarket, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. While we are still cautious in the near term on the overall market in China, we are encouraged by the traction we are gaining with local customers. This quarter we won another hydraulics program with a local manufacturer in the agriculture market, a sign of customer confidence in the Donaldson value proposition. Turning to Industrial Solutions, industrial sales rose 8% to $310 million.

IFS sales of $262 million grew 11% from new equipment sales in dust collection in Europe and North America and power generation project timing. Aerospace and defense sales were $47 million, a 6% decrease driven by a decline in defense sales following the completion of a few large projects. In Life Sciences, sales of $82 million rose 14% compared with prior year. Double-digit growth in food and beverage and disk drive was partially offset by a decline in bioprocessing sales. In total, our results this quarter capped off a tremendous year for the company. Looking ahead, Donaldson Company is well positioned to further strengthen our foundation and capitalize on improving market conditions and cyclical trends.

As such, we are forecasting at the midpoint of our guidance ranges another record year in fiscal 2026 with total sales of $3.8 billion, inclusive of sales growth in each of our segments, an all-time high operating margin of 16.4% ahead of the fiscal 2026 target we laid out one year ago, and record earnings of $4 per share. Now I'll turn it over to Brad, who will provide more details on the financials and our outlook for fiscal 2026.

Speaker 0

Brad, thanks Tod. Good morning everyone. I want to start by thanking the Donaldson team for delivering another strong year. We were navigating a complicated environment and had to make some difficult decisions, particularly related to structural cost changes, and the teams delivered. Our approach is simple: grow the company, grow profitability, maintain expense discipline, make thoughtful investments, and return cash to our shareholders. We did that in fiscal 2025 and expect to do it again in fiscal 2026. Now turning to a few highlights from the quarter, note that my profit comments will exclude the impact from the restructuring and other charges Sarika referenced earlier. Total sales increased 5%. Operating margin was a record 16.4%, up 10 basis points over the prior year.

Adjusted EPS was $1.03, 10% above the prior year, and as expected, cash conversion was strong at 123% as we successfully worked down inventory and delivered to our customers. Going further into the P&L, gross margin was 34.8%, down 140 basis points from 2024. The impact from tariff-related inflation on our LIFO inventory valuation was significant this quarter. Expanding on this point, we use LIFO accounting for our U.S. business and can experience increased costs or benefits depending on whether we are in an inflationary or deflationary environment. The current inflationary environment resulted in higher costs, accounting for nearly all of the year-over-year change. Said differently, excluding the impact of LIFO in fiscal 2025 and 2024, gross margin would have been approximately flat to the prior year. In terms of underlying business gross margin, we remain in a solid position.

Productivity headwinds in the quarter from optimization projects are being offset by efficiency and fixed cost leverage in our facilities, and we continue to do an excellent job managing price versus cost, including those costs related to tariffs. Given the importance of the topic, I want to underscore our view that over time we plan to be profit neutral with respect to ongoing tariffs. We remain confident in this due to a few things. First, our region-for-region global footprint. Second, nearly 90% of our goods shipped from Mexico, where our biggest exposure lies, are USMCA qualified and currently exempt from tariffs. Third, our pricing muscle, which is strong and supported by the high-tech value of our solutions and our ability to deliver reliably to our customers.

In addition to managing price versus cost, our team has successfully managed operating expenses during a fluid environment, including with restructuring actions in the quarter. Operating expense as a rate of sales improved to 18.3% from 19.9% a year ago, a continuation of the positive trend we've seen all year in terms of segment profitability. Mobile Solutions pre-tax profit margin was a record 19.1%, up 80 basis points year over year due to the timing of inventory adjustments and leverage on higher sales. Industrial Solutions pre-tax margin was also a record at 20.9%, up 80 basis points due to leverage on higher sales. Life Sciences pre-tax margin improved to 5.3% from a negative 1.2% a year ago.

Strength in high margin food and beverage and disk drive sales and leverage from an optimized cost structure across the segment more than offset continued investment in bioprocessing as we work to scale these businesses. Now I'll walk through the details of our fiscal 2026 outlook. First, on sales, we're projecting full year total sales to increase between 1% and 5%, with sales of $3.8 billion at the midpoint of this range. This includes pricing of approximately 1%. The impacts from both currency translation and tariffs are expected to be negligible. For Mobile Solutions, we're projecting sales to be flat to up 4%. We expect first fit sales to rebound after comparing against 2025, a year in which we saw significant end market weakness in agriculture and transportation. Off-road sales are expected to grow mid single digits and on-road sales are projected to increase high single digits.

Aftermarket sales are expected to grow low single digits from continued market share gains and vehicle utilization rates. In Industrial Solutions, sales are forecast to grow between 2% and 6% driven by a mid single digit increase. In IFS, where sales are expected to improve across all businesses, including strategically important areas such as aftermarket and services, aerospace and defense sales are projected to be flat after cycling against record levels in the prior year. In Life Sciences, we expect sales growth between 1% and 5% from continued momentum in our larger legacy businesses, food and beverage and disk drive. We also project an increase in segment profit margin in fiscal 2026, growing to mid single digits as a rate of sales and building on our momentum from 2025.

For the total company, we are projecting full year operating margin once again at record levels and between 16.1% and 16.7% at the midpoint. This is a 70 basis point year over year improvement driven by gross margin expansion and expense leverage. Our expected performance represents an incremental margin of approximately 40%. Our EPS guidance is $3.92 to $4.08 centered on $4 per share. The midpoints of our top and bottom line guidance ranges represent 9% earnings growth on 3% sales growth, underscoring our ability to deliver higher levels of profitability on higher sales. During our investor day in 2023, we projected fiscal 2026 operating margin at the midpoint of our guidance range to be 16% along with an incremental margin over a cycle between 20% and 24%.

While our end markets have not behaved as expected, taking the midpoint of our current fiscal 2026 guidance ranges, we have more than delivered on our profit targets, demonstrating our strong commitment to margin expansion over time. Importantly, our profit growth is about long term structural changes that involve both subtraction and addition, meaning we are optimizing costs while investing in the most important strategic opportunities. Back to the fiscal 2026 outlook, cash conversion is expected to be in the range of 85% to 95%, a year over year improvement and consistent with historic averages. Our cash generation combined with our low leverage ratio gives us tremendous financial flexibility to invest for future growth, and that is always our top priority when it comes to strategic capital deployment.

From an organic perspective, we're continuing to find new ways to penetrate new and existing markets through our R&D investments as well as capital expenditures, which are forecast between $65 million and $85 million and include key investments in new products and technologies across all of our segments. We're highly committed to expansion through M&A and actively work through a pipeline of opportunities largely in our life sciences and industrial businesses. While we have the capability and the commitment, we are disciplined in our activities, pursuing opportunities with our strategic and financial criteria in mind. As we've demonstrated, the ongoing return of cash to shareholders is part of the Donaldson DNA and the value we create. Our financial performance has allowed us to pay and increase dividends annually for decades.

Calendar year 2025 is expected to be no exception, marking the 30th year in a row of increases, allowing us to maintain our constituency in the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrat Index. Further, in fiscal 2026 we are forecasting a repurchase of 2% to 3% of our outstanding shares. Through the strength of our global teams, technological expertise, and deep customer relationships, we look forward to delivering for all of our stakeholders in fiscal 2026. Now I'll turn the call back to Tod.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Brad. Donaldson Company is the leader in technology-led filtration, and we are strengthening that position. We have a proven history of focusing on our customers' needs through all market conditions and continue to advance our value proposition through our strategic initiatives and disciplined investments. The essential nature of our products for customers enables our razor-to-sell razor blade aftermarket model, which has penetrated across our business, fueling our durable, profitable growth today and for the future. Our success would not be possible without the talented Donaldson Company employees around the globe. I would like to close by thanking them for their dedication and service, and I am excited about what we will collectively accomplish in the future. With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator to open the line for questions.

Speaker 1

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, simply press star one again. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q and A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Bryan Francis Blair with Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Please go ahead. Thank you. Morning everyone.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 1

That was interesting comment on AG demand being at trough or essentially moving off trough. That's encouraging to level set on that. When did AG orders bottom for your team, and what kind of growth are you seeing in the early part of fiscal 2026?

Speaker 2

Yeah, Brian. This is Tod. When you really look at what AG has done, you know it's a pre-low comp, and consequently it's tough to imagine that it's going to fall further. AG, we feel, bottomed within the quarter because we did see some slight uptick. We're not talking double-digit uptick or anything like that. We're talking low single digits, and we were encouraged by the fact that it has stopped falling.

Speaker 1

Okay, understood. In terms of the commercialization of your bioprocessing solutions, we know that the timeline has been delayed relative to earlier expectations. How should we think about fiscal 2026 progression, and is there the prospect of growth, inflection? With that, can bioprocessing in isolation get to break even EBITs or potentially inflect to profitability?

Speaker 2

When you look at the total Life Sciences segment, our traditional businesses are doing quite well, performing to all profit expectations, et cetera. They're growing nicely, clearly carrying the day within the Life Sciences guide. When you get into the upstream portion of bioprocessing, that's more muted, clearly troubled as capacity expansion. Large projects still have not seen any kind of a turnaround, creating headwind in the business. The second piece of the bioprocessing story would be the downstream application piece where we're creating new products to bring those out to market to create revenue and growth in that fashion. That is taking a little bit longer to get those projects to market. We made really good progress in 2025. We do not see the revenue expectation really with a high kind of a bounce in 2026.

That's likely more in the 2027 time frame as we get through testing of those products and bring them to market, perhaps in the later part of fiscal 2026. Some of those products have been released. You saw those kind of announcements with our Purexa membrane chromatography products as well. Isolar Bio has also released some of those, but we still have more to release. All of that is baked into the Life Sciences guide and that's where you see the mid single digit growth and where it's coming from.

Speaker 1

Got it. I appreciate the color there. One more quick one as I may. The IFS outlook for mid single digit growth, how is your team thinking about first fit versus aftermarket revenue growth this year, the latter obviously being inclusive of service revenue.

Speaker 2

First fit within that business is bit mixed by region. The U.S. and Europe continue to be strong. APAC is a little bit more troubled. LatAm is certainly troubled, but it's really a replacement part story at this point in time for us because we continue to gain share as a result of our strategies and good execution. We do expect the U.S. to hold and we continue to take first fit share, but really it's largely a replacement part story within that business. Replacement parts were up broad-based across our industrial sector and particularly within IFS in multiple regions.

Speaker 0

Brian, this is Brad. I'll add one point. I think what's encouraging about our plan is that it's also broad based across the different businesses within IFS. It's not as though the IFS growth is predicated on one business really hitting hard and everything else is lukewarm. We expect this solid performance over the course of the year across all these businesses.

Speaker 1

Understood. Thanks again. Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please go ahead. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Nathan.

Speaker 1

I'll follow up on Brian's bio question. Obviously, the market there hasn't done you any favors over the last few years in terms of kind of hitting those investor day targets from a few years ago. What is it that you really need to fundamentally see change in those markets in order for you to see that ramp up in growth that we've been waiting for as you started to get into these markets?

Speaker 2

First, we have to get our new product development across the finish line, be able to really produce that at scale that the customers really would like to see. We're in laboratories with tests. All of our products are very well received. They really love them. We're just finalizing the development of being able to sell those at scale, making sure we have GMP manufacturing capabilities. Those later phases of getting it ready for production is kind of where we are. We've got to finish that off and then we should be able to see some market pickup. Overall, early returns as far as the capabilities, the differentiation, the disruption that it could cause are really positive. When we see the growth, it will be likely more in 2027, where we really start to commercialize.

Speaker 1

I guess the other question I wanted to ask about was on the connected side. I think you were talking about 30% increase in number of connected products in dust collection that you have out there. I mean, are we talking that, you know, going from 3% to 4% or 30% to 40% connected? I guess a follow up question to that is how do you monetize that? Is this something that you can monetize on its own or is this kind of value that's provided to the customer that results in pulling more hardware through rather than like a subscription model or something like that? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Nathan, it is not a subscription model. It is really deepening the customer relationships to be able to have them really manage their equipment more efficiently, either from energy savings and giving them more uptime. That deeper customer relationship really allows us to do more business with them on a per piece of equipment basis in all of the replacement parts as well as services. We have proven with the thousands that we have connected that we absolutely increase our replacement parts activities when we connect a piece of equipment versus a non piece of equipment. You see that as one of the drivers. There were years ago where our IFS business would be more 60% to 65% first fit and then 35% to 40% replacement parts. Today we're at 50%/50%.

You can see how that replacement parts of that connected based products is really helping us mix that particular business profitability up. That's the importance of that strategy.

Speaker 1

Great. That makes perfect sense. Thanks for taking my questions. Your next question comes from the line of Brian Paul Drab with William Blair & Company L.L.C. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. You know, what you guys have done with the margins over the last four years is pretty incredible. I'm just wondering, can you talk a little bit further about how you get 40% incremental operating margin in fiscal 2026 after such strong incrementals. This year it's going even higher. Maybe just start there and then I have a follow up.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Speaker 0

Hi Brian, this is Brad. First off, if you just pick the midpoint of our margin range, 16.4, that's about 70 bps up from prior year. The largest portion of that is coming from gross margin expansion. We are going to get some expense leverage as well given the more muted sales environment that we're dealing with. We're continuing to push to benefit from the structural cost reductions that we had this year. We'll expect expenses to stay very under control. The gross margin is bouncing back a little bit from the LIFO that I mentioned. We're also able to, we do expect to offset the tariff impact. Price versus cost will remain okay for us.

On top of it, as we get through some of the footprint work, we're going to start lapping the heavier lift there later in the year and that'll give us a little bit more of a tailwind. I'm talking basis points here, I'm not talking points, but overall the formula for that incremental I think given the environment is pretty positive. Obviously, we're celebrating that a bit too.

Speaker 1

How do you expect it to trend throughout the year? You know, the operating margin, is it going to be moving up throughout the year or is it a big step up in the second half, or how does it look?

Speaker 0

Yeah, we'll continue to move, we'll continue to step up over the year. Just to give some perspective on how to think about it in terms of the semester, we often talk about our sales being tilted towards the back half. You know, it's kind of a 48%, 52%, 49%, 51%. I can tell you profit margin is typically more tilted than that, by several points difference, where the back half is going to generate more profit as we get a little bit of a sales pickup and then leverage fixed costs as well.

Speaker 1

Okay, now in a situation where you hit the midpoint of the guidance, you mentioned one point of price. That would give us like 2% volume growth for fiscal 2026. How does that look in terms of a progression throughout the year? The growth rate is, you know, can you talk about what growth rate you're expecting each quarter?

Speaker 0

I would say you can look at a two year as a bit of a smoothing mechanism. It looks in fiscal 2026 that quarter by quarter % increase looks much less dramatic than it did in fiscal 2025. In terms of volume versus price, we're actually fairly consistent with pricing quarter by quarter. There are some moments where as we implement new pricing, we typically do it in certain markets in January, so there's a little bit of a step up there. Overall, that's much more muted. The variability then comes from volume. It tends to come from volume.

Speaker 1

I guess I didn't really understand the first part of it. Is there a chance that you're going to see, like, one, like a first half of the year that's flat and the second half up 4% in terms of volume, or is that 2% pretty smooth throughout the year? Sorry if I missed.

Speaker 0

It's okay. It's plus or minus. I would point you back to the 48/52-ish for the sales mix. That'll get you where you need to be.

Speaker 1

Yeah, understood. Okay, I'll pass it on. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Thanks, Brian.

Speaker 1

Your next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Good morning. I guess first of all, just a near term on demand, can you give a little bit of detail on what you're seeing in China and the mix there, aftermarket versus first fit? Now, with respect to commentary on backlogs, can you characterize how current backlogs compare with, I don't know, whatever you view as like typical? I have a longer term question.

Speaker 2

Sure. Hitting those two real quick. China incoming orders are up, obviously much easier comps. We're pleased to see some positive economic progression there within the quarter. We also remain cautiously optimistic with China. Is China going to be strong going forward? Not sure. We're a bit more careful on the outlook of China. Team continues to execute real well there. We continue to win new projects and we continue to be optimistic but also very careful relative to overall company backlogs. I would tell you our backlogs support the guide. We feel very comfortable with that. Also very important is our late backlog as a % of sales are now below pre-pandemic levels. That really is the reason for my comments in the opening remarks congratulating our operations team who just had a fantastic year taking care of our customers and helping us grow our business.

Speaker 1

With respect to the margins, I want to see if I can frame this in a way that you'd be willing to nibble on or answer somewhat. If you think about the parts of the business that have the weakest end markets currently, can you characterize their margins relative to the rest of the company? What I'm trying to get at is it's been quite a while since we've seen multiple years of decent end market demand. If you did get three, four years of decent end markets, not sort of red hot, but decent, is it reasonable to think that your margins for the overall company could move into the low 20% given the incremental margins you've been consistently posting? Is there anything structural in your mix that would be an obstacle to that?

Speaker 0

Hi Laurence, this is Brad. I'll nibble. I think the first thing is the composition and the stratification of margins is important. It's no secret. We've talked about it for a very long time. In the spectrum of our businesses, OEs tend to have a lower gross margin rate than the rest of the company. To your question, as we expect that those will rebound at some point, we don't know when. Hopefully we are at this bottom level we've talked about, that would create some mix pressure within our gross margins. At the same time, we feel like we're in a very good position with our structural costs and things like our footprint optimization, consolidation of plants. All of this gives us a chance to leverage more aggressively than probably we would have in prior periods before this work was done.

I'm not going to peg it to a number. As you talk about twenties, it's for us the idea of continuing to expand our operating margin is absolutely alive and well.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning and congrats on the solid quarter here. Just hoping we could expand a little bit more. Yeah, you're welcome. I was just hoping we could expand a little bit more on maybe the kind of quarterly or first half versus second half cadence. I know you talked about AG and some of the other kind of puts and takes within some of those segments.

If we could kind of go subsegment, you know, off road, on road, IFS and just how you think about each of those kind of first half versus second half and where you're kind of seeing already fiscal 1Q type of trends in line with guide and where you kind of anticipate a little bit more of a second half pickup and kind of what drives that confidence.

Speaker 0

Angel, this is Brad. I'll start. If we think about the first fit markets, I really do want to reiterate a point Tod made earlier. It's not as though we're expecting some remarkable change in the markets. If you think about it over the course of the year, we would expect it to get better. That creates maybe more outsized movement in terms of the year-over-year increase, especially with on-road. We said high single digits, and I just want to point out high single digits is millions of dollars, not tens of millions of dollars given the relative size of this business. I think that's an important part as we look through the year, just kind of smoothing it out. I'm kind of a two-year stack person with some of these OE businesses because the comps have been noisy. Another one you brought up is aerospace and defense.

If you look quarter by quarter this current year, that was a very lumpy business due in part to orders, due in part to our ability to fulfill with our supply chain and more supplier constraints than ours. That creates a little bit more of a dynamic approach by quarter. I think as you're thinking about the total company settling into what I said earlier in an earlier question about that 4852 is an important starting point.

Speaker 1

That's helpful, thank you. I wanted to go back to maybe capital allocation. Could you give us a little bit more maybe update or thoughts on kind of the M&A pipeline and just your appetite for buybacks kind of beyond the 2 to 3% of shares outstanding. Just on CapEx, your guidance I think implies kind of a decline year over year at the midpoint. Can you just talk about what kind of the factors that are driving that and maybe how should we kind of read this from an organic investment opportunity and you know as well as kind of potential benefits from OBBVA or other kind of assessments what that decline in CapEx means.

Speaker 0

Sure. This is Brad again, I'm going to start and then I'll let Tod pick up on the M&A side. As far as CapEx, if you think as a rate of sales, we're in that 2 to 2.5% range, fairly consistent. I would say like we're talking about with lots of our customers, we're being very smart and sharp with our prioritization so that we're not introducing a lot of projects at a time where the world is still a bit more uncertain. For me, I wouldn't read too much into that. It's more about we snapped a chalk line higher up on the list of good ideas versus lower on the list. Should things loosen up, obviously we'll make sure that these are the right investments.

Share repurchase, obviously last year we juiced it at around the 4% level and I think for us it's about always having a balance. To the extent that we can keep dry powder for possible M&A and continue to give cash back to shareholders, that's it. There's nothing real precise about that calculation as much as it's an ongoing conversation that Tod and I have as we think about how to best use our money at the time. The 2 to 3% is much more of a normal. That's kind of where we started last year. We're typically in the 2% range. Again, I think this is about starting the year with more of a normal position.

Speaker 2

Billy, on your M&A question, our capital priorities have not changed. They remain invest in the company for organic growth, buy companies to take care of and continue to invest for inorganic growth, dividends, and then share buyback. We still have an appetite for M&A. We still have a strong balance sheet that allows us to do that. We still have teams working on that. We have a very good pipeline. It is obviously strategic and focused, and we continue to work on that and will continue to do so as part of our ongoing strategy.

Speaker 1

Very helpful. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Tim Fine with Raymond James & Associates. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning. I did a question first on the aftermarket business, specifically in the mobile segment. Tod, you mentioned the high utilization rates as one of the kind of the sound bites there. Can you maybe go a little bit further in terms of the outlook? I mean if you go through some of these markets and obviously it's a global company, but in your largest market in North America, we've been depressed for some time on a first fit basis. I'm just curious in your outlook in terms of by segment or if you look through the different channels, what you're hearing from dealers, from customers in terms of just kind of the underlying change in activity. Is it a stocking level?

Is there anything that you can expand a bit further in terms of what's kind of driving your outlook for that part of the business?

Speaker 2

Sure. If you look at our Mobile Solutions aftermarket, remember 40% of that business is OE and 60% is in the independent channel in 2025. We just finished; our OE business had a bounce. They were really restocking, if you will, and our independent channel was a bit more muted. Going forward, given the share gains that we have in the independent channel, we're very proud to have hit $1 billion within that segment last year. We do have share gains that we baked into our forward look. We would expect more of an increase on the independent channel than the OE channel in 2026. That's what we baked into the guide. They're kind of on different timing with each other, but if you wrap that all together, we're still gaining share and still would expect to grow that business, particularly in the U.S.

Speaker 1

Okay. I'm guessing you don't want to get too fine lined on this, but is the opportunity with Mitei, is it in a similar kind of, should we think about that, a similar zip code in terms of the benefit from Napa or any help on that?

Speaker 2

Sorry, we're not going to give you any help on that. We're just proud to have them on board and actually having a strong relationship building with them. We're really not going to guide on a single customer going forward.

Speaker 1

Okay, last quick one, Tod, just on the—you mentioned that this power Gen super cycle. Any comments there in terms of backlog coverage? Is that getting to the point where you're starting into conversations? I'm guessing you're booked further out than normal, any color just on that specific piece of industrial.

Speaker 2

Sure. That business is full. The capacity we could probably sell if we had more capacity, more. Within that business, those projects are difficult to execute, and we remain very, very focused on executing. We do not see an end in sight. There has been no indication of the super cycle cooling at all. We are really happy with our position. The customers are happy. We've been delivering quite nicely. That just continues at a minimum through this full fiscal year. You're right, we have a very long look. It's probably the longest look on backlogs in the company at this time.

Speaker 0

Tim, this is Brad. I just want to add a little pile on to the power gen. The other thing that I think is really a testimonial to the team is there's still projects that we lose in that space because we're setting a certain price threshold, and we're committed to not taking bad business in these spots if it doesn't meet our return criteria.

Speaker 1

Understood, thank you. Your next question is from the line of Brian Drab with William Blair. Please go ahead. I'm sorry if this was just asked, but you just said you wouldn't talk about a specific customer. My question was going to be, you know, you're forecasting growth in these end markets, the heavy duty end markets that have been really challenged. You also mentioned some incremental distribution wins which you mentioned up front. I imagine are somewhat important or material. I'm just wondering, is your increased distribution presence contributing to your positive outlook and maybe outgrowing the market in the near term?

Speaker 2

Yes. As well as other share gains as well. It's not just a single customer there, the team with our mobile solutions aftermarket organization is doing excellent work. They continue to expand Donaldson Company presence, take care of the customer, win important customers. They're just doing a great job and we're benefiting from it. We bake that into the guide.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much. Your next question comes from the line of Tim Fine with Raymond James. Please go ahead. Sorry, last one for you, Tod. Maybe it was a quarter or two ago you were kind of skeptical or you pushed back a bit on this notion of a potential reshoring reindustrialization, large project surge in North America. Not surge, but you know, pick up as you talk to customers. Is that kind of big project quoting pipeline, is it? Have you seen any change in either direction on that or has the tone of your customer conversations changed at all?

Speaker 2

My tone doesn't change. I would say our teams, particularly sales teams within First Fit Equipment in the U.S. for our industrial segment, are doing excellent. We did have nice growth last year, particularly within the dust collection side of things. We expect more this coming year. The quote backlog is solid. Things have not abated at all. I would also say it hasn't really accelerated to a notable degree worth mentioning here. It's just we're doing a good job. We've got good products. We've got good people to take care of the customers, and we're executing quite well, and we're very proud of that.

Speaker 1

Thank you. That concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Tod E. Carpenter for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

That concludes today's call. Thanks to everyone who participated. We look forward to reporting in about 90 days, our first quarter results. Have a great day. Goodbye.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.