Ducommun - Q4 2025
February 26, 2026
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2025 Ducommun Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Suman Mookerji, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
Thank you. Welcome to Ducommun's 2025 fourth quarter conference call. With me today is Stephen Oswald, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer. I'm going to discuss certain limitations to any forward-looking statements regarding future events, projections, or performance that we may make during the prepared remarks or the Q&A session that follows. Certain statements today that are not historical facts, including any statements as to future market and regulatory conditions, results of operations, and financial projections, including those under our VISION 2027 game plan for investors, are forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are therefore prospective. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from the future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in our forward-looking statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to have been correct. In addition, estimates of future operating results are based on the company's current business, which is subject to change. Particular risks facing Ducommun include, amongst others, the cyclicality of our end-use markets, the level of U.S. government defense spending. Our customers may experience changes in production rates or delays in the launch and certification of new products, timing of orders from our customers, which are subject to cancellation, modification, or rescheduling. Our ability to obtain additional financing and service existing debt to fund capital expenditures and meet our working capital needs.
Legal and regulatory risks, including pending litigation matters generally, and as well as any potential losses arising from third-party subrogation claims related to the Guaymas Performance Center fire that may become material. The cost of expansion, consolidation, and acquisitions, competition, economic and geopolitical developments, including supply chain issues, our ability to successfully implement restructuring, realignment, and cost reduction initiatives that could adversely impact our ability to achieve our strategic objectives. International trade restrictions and our ability to obtain necessary U.S. government approvals for proposed sales to certain foreign customers. The impact of tariffs and elevated interest rates, risks associated with a prolonged, partial, or total U.S. government shutdown, the ability to attract and retain key personnel and avoid labor disruptions, the ability to adequately protect and enforce intellectual property rights, pandemics, disasters, natural or otherwise, and risk of cybersecurity attacks.
Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and other reports filed from time to time with the SEC, as well as the press release issued today for a detailed discussion of the risks. Our forward-looking statements are subject to those risks. Statements made during this call are only as of the time made, and we do not intend to update any statements made in this presentation, except if and as required by regulatory authorities. This call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our filings with the SEC for a reconciliation of the GAAP to non-GAAP measures referenced on this call. We have filed our 2025 annual report on Form 10-K with the SEC. I would now like to turn the call over to Stephen Oswald for a review of the operating results. Steve?
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Okay, thank you, Suman. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today for our fourth quarter conference call. Today, and as usual, I will give an update of the current situation of the company, after which Suman will review our financials in detail. Let me start off again on this quarterly call with Ducommun's VISION 2027 game plan for investors. As we exit our third year of execution and enter the fourth on very strong footing. Strategy and vision were developed coming out of the COVID pandemic over the summer and fall of 2022, unanimously approved by the Ducommun board in November 2022, and then presented the following month in New York to investors, where we got excellent feedback.
Since that time, Ducommun's management has been executing the strategy by increasing the revenue percentage of engineered product and aftermarket content, which is at 23% this year, up from 15% in 2022, consolidating our rooftop footprint and contract manufacturing, continuing our focused acquisition program, executing the offloading strategy with defense primes and high-growth segments, driving evaluated pricing, and expanding content on key commercial aerospace platforms. All of us here, as well as my fellow board members, continue to have a high level of conviction in the Vision 2027 strategy and financial goals. I believe the market catalyst ahead presents a unique value creation opportunity for shareholders. The Q4 2025 results show again that strategy and initiatives are working with gross and adjusted EBITDA margins at record levels and tracking to meet and exceed our Vision 2027 goals, with much more opportunities to come for DCO.
I'm also very pleased to announce that our next investor conference will be held this September in New York on the 17th. We will present the next five-year vision for DCO as a follow-up to our current VISION 2027. I strongly believe Vision 2032 will be very compelling for shareholders. I look forward to it. We will announce further details of the event in the spring. Q4, I'm pleased to report that revenues reached a new quarterly record of $215.8 million, or 9.4% over last year, beating our prior record of $212.6 million set last quarter and making this our 19th consecutive quarter with year-over-year growth in revenue. We achieved this with our 4th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in DCO, military, and space segment.
Our commercial aerospace segment, which has been challenged all year due to destocking at BA and SPR, returned to growth in the quarter. I'm also happy to report that this quarter, the company's remaining performance obligation, RPOs, grew to a new record level of $1.1 billion, increasing $75 million sequentially. The growth in RPO during the quarter was in our defense businesses and primarily in missiles, as you would expect. We closed on a number of opportunities and are well-positioned for continuing revenue growth. We expect the bookings momentum to continue in 2026. One of the highlights of the quarter was orders for the MIR program for DCO's Tulsa and Huntsville, Arkansas, operations. That totaled more than $80 million at good margins, a major win and one of the highest in DCO's history in terms of dollars and for just one program.
Our book-to-bill overall was 1.3x in Q4, a great result for DCO after a very strong book-to-bill in Q3 as well. Gross margins also grew $13.4 million to 27.7% in Q4, a significant increase from 23.5% last year in Q4. While the quarter did benefit from a non-typical favorable product mix, which helped margins by approximately 100 basis points, the trend in gross margins still has been very positive throughout 2025 and positions us well to achieve our Vision 2027 margin targets. We continue to realize benefits from our growing engineered products portfolio with aftermarket, strategic value pricing initiatives, restructuring actions, and productivity improvements.
We have transitioned all programs from our closed facilities and are seeing meaningful cost savings in our P&L array, with an expected run rate of $11 million-$13 million savings still on target by the end of 2026. For adjusted operating income margin in Q4, the team delivered an impressive 11.4%, well above the prior year of 8.2%. This was supported by growth in adjusted operating income margins in both the Structural Systems and Electronic Systems segment during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA continues to improve towards our VISION 2027 goal of 18% in 2027 from 13% in 2022. DCO achieved 17.5% in the quarter, or $37.9 million, up $10.6 million from Q4 2024.
This includes about approximately 100 basis points of benefit from mix, which I mentioned earlier, but even without that, represents tremendous progress in the past 3 years and a terrific job by the DCO team. GAAP EPS was $0.48 per diluted share in Q4 2025, versus $0.45 for Q4 2024. With the adjustments, diluted EPS was $1.05 a share in Q4 2025, $0.30 above adjusted diluted EPS of $0.75 in the prior year quarter. The higher GAAP and adjusted diluted EPS during the quarter was driven by improved operating income. Full year 2025 revenue grew 5% to a record $825 million. Our military and space business grew 14% in 2025, driven by strong performance across missiles, military rotorcraft, fixed-wing platform, and radar.
Our commercial aerospace business declined, as communicated early in 2025, by 7%, with destocking at BA and SPR a headwind all year. Our non-core industrial businesses grew 3% year-over-year, providing nice volume and margin without interrupting our military and commercial aerospace focus. Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 160 basis points at 16.4%. Another year of record-breaking performances and make steady progress towards our VISION 2027 target of 18% EBITDA margins. In 2025, we closed on over $915 million in bookings, a full year book-to-bill of 1.1. With continued positive news coming out of commercial aerospace and increased Department of War budgets, including the ramp-up in missile production, we have strong confidence in the momentum from both our primary end markets.
We also announced in early Q4, that we entered into a binding settlement term sheet to resolve the Guaymas, Mexico, fire litigation against us. The term sheet provided for, among other things, the final dismissal of the Guaymas fire litigation against the company with prejudice and the release of claims against us in exchange for issuing a payment of $150 million, $56 million of that was funded by our insurance carriers. In addition, we also settled two ancillary subrogation claims of $1.35 million and $4 million, respectively. The Guaymas fire occurred in June of 2020. We recorded settlement to related costs of $7.6 million in Q4. Those charges are reflected in our GAAP earnings results.
Except for the ancillary subrogation claim of $4 million, payment was made in November. That is reflected in our Q4 cash flow used in operating activities. On the outlook for 2026, we expect to see continued strength in the defense business and a recovery in our commercial aerospace business during the second half once we get through destocking. We expect mid-to-high single-digit revenue for the year of 2026, with growth ramping up throughout the year. Based on the current order book, we are expecting first half of 2026 to be in the low-to-mid single-digit range, with growth ramping up in the second half of the year. Tariffs have not been a material impact on results, and we expect that to continue, a good story for our investors. Let me provide some additional color on our markets, products, and programs.
Beginning with our military and space sector, we saw revenues of $124 million compared to $109 million in Q4 2024. This represents a growth of 13%, was driven by strong performance in our military fixed wing and rotorcraft franchise, as well as satellite-related business, and continued growth in missile and radar. In addition, our facility consolidation and product line moves are now complete, with Apache tail rotor blade now in production at its new location in Coxsackie, New York, the TOW Missile Case in production in Guaymas, Mexico, and the Tomahawk in production at Joplin, Missouri. We've all heard the recent announcement from the Department of War to ramp up production capacity on key missile programs.
Department of War has entered into long-term framework agreements with Raytheon, our largest customer, and Lockheed Martin, to significantly increase production on key programs, including PAC-3, THAAD, AMRAAM, SM-3, Tomahawk, amongst others. DCO is well-positioned as an existing supplier with defense primes on all these programs, and is in great shape with our capacity at our operations to fully benefit. These framework agreements and DoD push to increase production should be another strong catalyst for growth in our military and space segment, starting in 2027 and beyond. In 2025, DCO's missile business grew 20% compared to 2024, and we expect this strength to continue. During Q4, we booked in excess of $130 million in orders in our missile franchise, with a book-to-bill exceeding 4x. We had significant wins on MIR, Tomahawk, AMRAAM, standard missiles, and THAAD.
With missile production expected to ramp up very meaningfully over the next few years, we expect this to be a big driver for growth. This is supported by demand to replenish stockpiles in the United States and also support FMS order activity. For context, Ducommun is a supplier on over a dozen key missile platforms, including AMRAAM, MIR, PAC-3, SM-2, SM-3, SM-6, Tomahawk, Naval Strike, and TOW, amongst others, which is excellent news for the company and our shareholders. Within our commercial aerospace operations, fourth quarter revenue increased 1% year-over-year to $82 million, so we continue to work through Boeing and Spirit destocking on the MAX. In the quarter, we had growth in both 787 and A320, as well as in-flight entertainment compared to Q4 of 2024.
The outlook is promising as Boeing increases their 737 MAX bill rates from 38-42, and then to 47 later this year, and with the new production line in Everett going live this summer. Completion of the Spirit acquisition has also helped with improving operations. We expect destocking for our products on the Max, particularly those flowing through the legacy Spirit operation, to persist through the first half of 2026 and gradually ebb in the back half of the year. The steady progress by Boeing ramping up production rates will certainly help with this. Additionally, Boeing is building momentum on 787 builds and making big investments in its South Carolina facility to increase capacity and ramp up production to 10 by the end of this year, with a further rate ramp in 2027 and beyond.
DCO has 150,000 per ship set content on this platform. This will help us as well. We're also monitoring the production at Airbus as they work through their engine issues. Overall, remain very optimistic about DCO's commercial aerospace business in 2026, with much more growth ahead in 2027 and beyond, as we get past destocking and industry supply issues. Our balance of defense and commercial aerospace businesses helped drive growth for the company in 2025. We very much like the mix and balance it provides. The outlook going forward is very positive for both end markets. That is exciting news for the company and its shareholders. With that, I'll have Suman review our financial results in detail. Suman?
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
Thank you, Steve. As a reminder, please see the company's 10-K and Q4 earnings release for a further description of information mentioned on today's call. As Steve discussed, our fourth quarter results reflect another record quarter of revenue, with strong growth across most of our military end markets, including fixed-wing aircraft, rotorcraft, missiles, and radars. Gross margin and EBITDA margins both reached new record levels, and while favorable mix contributed about 100 basis points to our results, margins would have been very strong even without that benefit. We have completed our facility consolidation projects, and this will drive further synergies in 2026 as we ramp up production of the various product lines that were moved. These actions, along with our strategic pricing initiatives, drove continued gross margin expansion in Q4 and keeps us on pace to achieve our VISION 2027 goal of 18% EBITDA margin.
Now, turning to our fourth quarter results. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $215.8 million versus $197.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2024. The year-over-year increase of 9.4% reflects strong growth in military and space of 13%, driven by increases in fixed-wing aircraft, military rotorcraft, missiles, and radars. Our commercial aerospace business returned to growth in the quarter, with revenues up 1% year-over-year, with growth in A320, 787, and the helicopters offsetting lower sales on the 737 MAX. We posted total gross profit of $59.8 million, or 27.7% of revenue for the quarter, versus $46.4 million, or 23.5% of revenue in the prior year period.
We continue to provide adjusted gross margins as we had certain non-GAAP cost of revenue adjustment items in the prior year period relating to inventory step-up amortization from our acquisitions. On an adjusted basis, our gross margins were 27.7% in Q4 2025, up 370 basis points from 24% in Q4 2024. I also want to add that we did not see any material impact from tariffs in the fourth quarter, as Steve mentioned, we do not anticipate any significant impact to our PNL at this time. We are a U.S. manufacturing business with U.S. employees and generate over 95% of revenue from our domestic facilities. Our revenues are also largely to domestic customers, with U.S. revenues in excess of 85% in 2025.
Revenues to China were 3% in 2025, mostly one customer for Airbus. There has been no impact to those volumes or orders at this time due to the tariffs. Our supply chain is also largely domestic, with less than 5% of our direct suppliers being foreign. Some of our domestic suppliers do source material from outside the United States. Even that is a very manageable spend, with China being a low single-digit percentage. We expect to largely mitigate the impact of tariffs on our material spend through military duty-free exemptions, alternate sourcing of materials from domestic suppliers, or by passing on the impact to our customers. The common reported operating income for the fourth quarter of $14 million, or 6.5% of revenue, compared to operating income of $10.4 million, or 5.3% of revenue in the prior year period.
Adjusted operating income was $24.6 million, or 11.4% of revenue this quarter, compared to $16.1 million, or 8.2% of revenue in the comparable period last year. The company reported net income for the fourth quarter of 2025 of $7.4 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, compared to $6.8 million, or $0.45 per diluted share a year ago. On an adjusted basis, the company reported net income of $16.2 million, or $1.05 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $11.4 million, or $0.75 in Q4 2024. The GAAP net income and higher adjusted net income during the quarter was driven by the higher adjusted operating income after excluding litigation settlement and related costs. Now let me turn to our segment results.
Our Structural Systems segment posted revenue of $96 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 versus $90 million last year. The year-over-year change reflected $5 million of higher revenue in our military and space business, driven by military rotorcraft and fixed-wing aircraft platforms. Our commercial aerospace business grew 1%, with growth on Airbus platforms and 787, offsetting weakness on the 737 MAX. Structural Systems operating income for the quarter was $14.6 million, or 15.2% of revenue, compared to $3.2 million, or 3.6% of revenue for the prior year quarter. Excluding restructuring charges and other adjustments in both years, the segment operating margin was 17.8% in Q4 2025 versus 9.2% in Q4 2024. The increase in year-over-year margin was driven by savings from plant consolidation and favorable sales mix.
Our Electronic Systems segment posted revenue of $120 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 versus $107 million in the prior year period. The year-over-year change reflected $9.4 million in higher revenues in military and space applications, driven by strong growth in fixed-wing aircraft, rotorcraft, missiles, and radar. Our industrial business increased $3 million during Q4. Commercial aerospace in the quarter was flat to prior year, with in-flight entertainment and other commercial aerospace offsetting lower revenues on the 737 MAX. Electronic Systems operating income for the fourth quarter was $22 million, or 18.4% of revenue, versus $19 million, or 17.7% of revenue in the prior year period.
Excluding restructuring charges and other adjustments in both years, the segment operating margin was 18.6% in Q4 2025 versus 17.7% in Q4 2024. The year-over-year increase was driven by higher manufacturing volume and favorable sales mix. Next, I would like to provide an update on our restructuring program. As a reminder, and as discussed previously, we commenced a restructuring initiative back in 2022. These actions were taken to better position the company with stronger performance in the short and long term. This included the shutdown of our facilities in Monrovia, California, and Berryville, Arkansas, and the transfer of that work to our low-cost operation in Guaymas, Mexico, and to other existing performance centers in the United States. I'm happy to report that we have closed out the restructuring program as of Q4 and have moved all transitioning programs into production at their receiving facilities.
Production is now ongoing on rotor blades for the Apache helicopter at our Coxsackie, New York facility, 737 MAX spoilers and TOW Missile Cases in Guaymas, Mexico, and Tomahawk components in our Joplin, Missouri, facility. During Q4 2025, we recorded $0.6 million net in restructuring charges. We do not expect additional restructuring expenses in 2026 related to this program. As previously communicated, we expect to generate $11 million-$13 million in annual savings from our actions and have already seen meaningful realization of savings in 2024 and 2025. We expect the synergies to further ramp in 2026 as the receiving facilities move up the learning curve and move to full rate production. Turning to liquidity and capital resources. In Q4 2025, we used $74.7 million in cash from operating activities as we paid out the litigation settlement-related items.
Excluding the $101.2 million in payments related to litigation settlement, non-GAAP adjusted cash provided by operating activities was $26.5 million during the quarter, compared to $18.4 million in Q4 of last year. The improvement was due to higher adjusted operating income and lower cash taxes, partially offset by higher operating working capital. For the full year 2025, we used $33.4 million in cash flow from operating activities as we paid litigation settlement-related items of $103.2 million. Excluding these one-time litigation settlement-related payments, non-GAAP adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $69.8 million, which is more than 2x the number from 2024 of $34.2 million. This strong improvement in operating cash flow is great news for the company.
In Q4, the company amended its credit agreement, which now includes a $200 million term loan and a $450 million revolver. This new $650 million facility lowers our cost of capital and gives us incremental capacity to execute on our acquisition strategy. As of the end of the fourth quarter, we had available liquidity of $390 million, comprising of the unutilized portion of our revolver and cash on hand. Interest expense in Q4 2025 was $3.5 million, compared to $3.6 million in Q4 of 2024. The year-over-year improvement in interest cost was primarily due to lower interest rate costs, offset by a higher debt balance.
In November 2021, we put in place an interest rate hedge that went into effect for a 7-year period, starting January 2024, and pegs the 1-month term SOFR for 170 basis points for $150 million of our debt. The hedge is still in place and will continue to drive significant interest cost savings in 2026 and beyond. To conclude the financial overview, I would like to say the fourth quarter results demonstrate that our VISION 2027 strategy is working, and that we are positioned well for 2026 and beyond. I'll now turn it back over to Steve for his closing remarks. Steve?
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Okay, thanks, Suman. In closing, look, 2025 was a great year, and Q4, another success for DCO and its shareholders. We continue to drive our VISION 2027 strategy, so I'm very pleased with that. We achieved another quarter of record revenue, and gross margins and adjusted EBITDA margins were also at records of 27.7% and 17.5%, respectively. The company is also well positioned to meet and exceed our VISION 2027 target of 25% plus of engineered product revenues, with full year 2025 at 23%. As everyone knows, driving this percentage as high as possible is our number one strategic focus, and we're fully committed to realizing that as we go forward.
Finally, with the continued strength in defense activity and commercial bill rates heading higher, I'm also very optimistic about what lies ahead in 2026 and the next few years for our shareholders, employees, and other stakeholders. Okay, with that, let's go to questions. Thank you for listening.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while I compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Jon Godyn from Citi. Please go ahead.
Bradley Eiser (Managing Director)
Hi, this is Bradley Eiser for Jon Godyn. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to follow up on the commentary about the inventory destocking that you guys previously highlighted. I also want to look at, in conjunction with the movements we saw in inventory working capital in the fourth quarter. I know you outlined headwinds in the first half and we're expecting an improvement in the back half of this year. With the working capital in the fourth quarter being pretty favorable, how should we think about these magnitudes of the headwinds you previously called out for the first half of 2026? Is there any change here? Are you seeing an acceleration of inventory draw higher than expected? I'm just curious how to look at this one.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
I think we're our expectations are in line with previous comments on destocking. We expect there to be continued destocking, and there are two elements to destocking, right? Destocking at our customer and destocking in our facility. Destocking in our facility does help reduce working capital tied up in the business. We expect some of that to happen, as previously discussed in Q1 and Q2 and for the rest of the year. I think from a external destocking perspective, we see more of that happening in the first half and then ebbing as we get into the second half of 2026, as we see inventory getting burnt down, mainly at Spirit, the legacy Spirit or Boeing Wichita, and also to some extent at Boeing Direct. Yeah.
Bradley Eiser (Managing Director)
Got it. I also want to switch gears to the defense side.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
Sure.
Bradley Eiser (Managing Director)
With all the primes talking about increasing their investment in capacity, I was curious, if you guys can talk a bit more about your potential medium-term opportunities here, like once this capacity begins to take effect. Do you invest it proportionally if there's capacity increase? Are there opportunities for you to grow faster than the market? Any color next probably here would be appreciated.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. Let me just jump in here. Well, first of all, I mean, this, you know, we really call it, at least for missiles, we call it a franchise within Ducommun, because this has been one of our legacies, is where I mentioned in the script, before the questions that, you know, we go across all the major missile programs. The good news is that, you know, these are all things we know how to make. These are things that are already in production. And the other thing that I mentioned is that, you know, we have a significant amount of capacity for most, and where, you know, might have a little less, that we're putting CapEx into that. You know, that's all very positive.
Now, on the other side, you know, we're not the OEM, so, you know, we have to work with the OEM and wait for the orders, but they need to get the orders from either the State Department through FMS or the Department of War. You know, we really see this, you know, major sort of move in 2027. You know, we are in contact, and Raytheon is having meetings, and, you know, Lockheed, you know, as well. You know, we're, we couldn't be happier with all the agreements that are happening. It's just gonna be a little bit of a lag just because these things take a little bit of time, unfortunately. Stay tuned.
Bradley Eiser (Managing Director)
Got it. Appreciate all the color. Thank you.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Thanks for joining us.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Crawford from B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.
Mike Crawford (Senior Managing Director and Head of Discovery Group)
Thanks. Maybe just to dig down into that a little bit more. I mean, you've optimized your footprint, you're down the restructuring. Could you characterize, like, how much room you have to grow in your new footprint without, let's say, growth CapEx?
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Geez, I think we... You know, I mean, this would be a high-level number maybe, but it's at least we have 30%, I mean, I'm being conservative. We probably have 30% of room in our factories right now for this missile increase. I'd say we're-
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
The CapEx, additional incremental CapEx required to expand that capacity is not significant. It is something that we can accommodate within our regular CapEx budget and can implement quickly. Defense electronics, capacity increases for the products we make do not entail significant CapEx or takes a lot of time to put in place. We are, you know, actively evaluating all other capacity across each of our factories, in the context of all this potential new business and making investments where needed to adjust capacity.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
As Stephen said, here in the near term, over the next, 12 months, given, you know, the at least 30% existing open capacity, there is no issue in meeting demand.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Mike, let me give you an example. We have a factory in Joplin, Missouri, that's where the Tomahawk's gonna go. Joplin runs about $100 million a year in revenue. They do, you know, world-class cabling and other things and, you know, mostly defense, but some commercial too. You know, we're putting the Tomahawk in a building that's already standing there that wasn't utilized. That's why we have that 30%+ and, you know, we think that we could do $200 million in revenue in the next three or four years there with what we have. That's very exciting to us. For just one plant, that's a big mover for DCO.
Mike Crawford (Senior Managing Director and Head of Discovery Group)
Great. No, that's super helpful. Just maybe one separate question for me. You do call out that you're partnering with primes on hypersonics and counter-hypersonic programs. Is that more on the structural side as opposed to the electronics, or what are you doing there?
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
More on the electronics side with interconnects, ruggedized interconnects, that we have presence on hypersonics.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah, a lot of cables, Mike.
Mike Crawford (Senior Managing Director and Head of Discovery Group)
Okay. All right, thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Herbert from RBC. Please go ahead.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Yeah. Hey, Steve and Suman, nice quarter. you know, the exit rate on margins is pretty strong. How do we think about the puts and takes on margins in 2026 and sort of what's implied in terms of margin expansion on the, call it, mid-to-high single-digit top line outlook?
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
You want to take that?
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, sure. Ken, excellent point and question. I would look at the exit rate not based off of Q4's EBITDA of 17.5%, but versus look at the blended EBITDA margin over the year and view that as an exit rate. As we noted, there was about 100 basis points of favorability, driven by unusually or atypical product and business revenue mix in the quarter, which helped margins. We are seeing ourselves exiting closer to the 16.5% on EBITDA, as the baseline for 2026, with improvement opportunities, especially as we go into the back half and as revenue scales, as well as the production ramps up on the product lines that have been moved in 2025.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. I think that's fair, Ken. I think that's probably right. I mean, we had a little bit of extra benefit in Q4. Of course, we'll take it, but I think the other number is a better one to use.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Okay. That's, that's helpful. Increasingly, you know, the VISION 2027 targets look, you know, increasingly obtainable. What, maybe not today, but when do you think you'd be prepared to provide an update to those numbers, especially on the margin potential of the business?
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
That's a great Thank you for bringing that up. That's, that'll be in September. When we announce we have our investor meeting, with the first part of it will be an update on the VISION 2027, and then we'll roll into the Vision 2032 and our plans for the company and investors.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Perfect. Thanks, Stephen. Just one final question. Can you level set us on what missiles and munitions represent within the defense portfolio? Because it sounds like the growth opportunity in that business is clearly gonna be much better than company average growth.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
Absolutely, Ken. Missiles are about a quarter of our defense business, and as you noted, the opportunity is significant for us going forward there.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah, Ken, that mirror order was a big deal for us. We don't see $80 million orders very often here. We love them, but we don't see them very often. It's a long time coming, but that's a nice shot in the arm for the company.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Perfect. Thanks, Stephen. Great results.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Hey, Ken, thanks. Good to be with you, as always.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tony Bancroft from Gabelli Funds. Please go ahead.
Tony Bancroft (Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst)
Good morning, good afternoon, gentlemen. Thank you, great call, great quarter. Well done. Just, you know, you sort of talked about a little bit before, but more in broader strokes, you know, with this announcement of a potential $1.5 trillion budget, even if it goes over a longer period of time, it's still, you know, it's still materially much larger than I think most people would even expect. How do you look at that as far as keeping up with the growth, assuming directionally, that's where it's going? I know you said you have capacity, but I, you know, I mean, with the quadrupling these numbers we've seen, you know, are you able to do it?
I guess, at some point, there is gonna be a run rate and normalization, and, how do you guys look at overcapacity? You know, that might not even be an issue right now for quite a while, but do you think about that? How do you look at that? Maybe on top of that, you know, a $1.5 trillion budget has got to be a lot of new opportunities. Would you guys be looking at adjacencies or even other areas to involve yourself in? Thank you.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Thank you, Tony. Good to be with you. I think, obviously, overall, it's a great opportunity for DCO. You know, the nice thing is, our relationships with defense primes are very strong. I mentioned RTX is our largest customer, so, you know, we're critical to their success, which is what we want, right? We're and we're sole sourcing a lot of things, and so that's positive. If you can see, you know, we've done a lot of good work with Northrop Grumman in the past. I've talked about that when I first came on and through the years about getting relationships with other primes other than just having this huge number of Raytheon.
We've done that, Lockheed as well, working on other things. We, we think it's, you know, we read the headline and, you know, it took our breath away a little bit, but we feel, you know, really good about it. On the capacity side, again, you know, we have, you know, really good footprints in the Midwest for these Electronic Systems. We have, again, I think at least 30% in our back pocket, and that's just with, as Suman mentioned, regular CapEx, feeding every year for the company. Nothing extraordinary you're gonna hear from us, I'm sure, in the next few years.
Lastly, you know, we're continuing to work on building relationship with new warfare, and building relationships with, you know, we already have a relationship with GA and other companies to take advantage of, you know, the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) warfare program as well as others, hypersonics. Our defense business is strong. It's only gonna get stronger. It's only gonna get bigger.
Tony Bancroft (Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst)
Thanks so much, gents. Great job.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
All right, Tony. Good to be with you. Thanks for calling in.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one and wait for your name to be announced. Our next question comes from Slade Struhsaker from Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
Slade Struhsaker (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, guys. Thanks for getting me on. I'm on.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Sure. Hi, Slade.
Slade Struhsaker (Equity Research Analyst)
I guess, first and foremost, I'm a little bit curious just on the destocking on the MAX. I'm curious, is there any way you could maybe break out, I guess, kind of how much of what remains is internal versus external?
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
Yeah.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Internal and external.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
Yes. It is, it is more external than internal. I wouldn't say that. We haven't really broken that out publicly, but I would say, yes, it is more external versus internal on the MAX. You know, for context, let's also keep in mind that the large commercial platforms are about, that including both Boeing and Airbus, are about 50% of our commercial aerospace revenues. The impact of destocking, as well as the recovery, needs to be weighted in our commercial aerospace forecast accordingly.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. I'd also say this, you know, we had 1% growth in Q4, which obviously is nice, but, you know, part of that, we had a big revenue bump up in in-flight entertainment versus Q4 2024. That's one of the big reasons we got to the positive side in Q4. Yeah, we don't break it out. The best news is that as we go forward here, we got all confidence that Kelly and Boeing are gonna do their thing.... We're gonna, you know, this is, or there's better days ahead, let's put it that way, okay? Because the, the pull, the demand side, is gonna help big time on this.
Slade Struhsaker (Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Absolutely. I mean, I guess kind of in turning to maybe the better days ahead, so to speak, are you guys feeling that you're totally prepared once the destocking reaches out to switch production to whatever the rate increases are at Boeing and Airbus? As they kind of move up throughout the year?
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
I think it's about, yeah, you kind of came in and come out, but I think what you asked is that, are we ready for the bill rate increases for both Airbus and BA?
Slade Struhsaker (Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah, 100%. We can't wait. We've been waiting for years.
Slade Struhsaker (Equity Research Analyst)
Awesome. If I could just, if I could just sneak in one last one. The, all the production lines that just recently got moved in and out, up and running with their new facilities,
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah.
Slade Struhsaker (Equity Research Analyst)
They're not necessarily all quite at full run rate, but I was curious if you could put any kind of details around the cadence of those all getting to full run rate, and if there would be any kind of margin benefit that you might associate with that once they are running at full rate. Thank you.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Okay, thanks.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
I think we expect that to get to full rate by the second half of this year. We have projected $11 million-$13 million in total synergies as of Q4 of 2025. I would say approximately half of that is in the P&L on a run rate basis, with another $6 million-$7 million to go. That will come into the P&L over the course of this year, getting to run rate by the end of this year.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. Yeah, the last last one in is the Tomahawk. We make 18 cables for it, and there's a lot has to happen on that missile. That's the one we are still, you know, working on a few things. That'll be second half for sure.
Slade Struhsaker (Equity Research Analyst)
Awesome. Thanks, guys. Nice quarter.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yes, thank you. Thank you for calling in.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Connor Dezert from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Connor Dezert (Global Investment Research Associate)
Hey, guys, you've got Connor Dessert on for Noah Poponak today. Thanks for the question. I appreciate the commentary that you guys had about upsizing the credit facility so that you could execute more on the acquisition strategy. I was curious if you guys could give us an update on what the M&A market is looking like from your perspective today. We've heard some other A&D suppliers comment that activity has picked up, and there are a lot more potential deals out there with more willing sellers. I was curious if you guys are seeing a similar level of activity for the assets that are in your target range, and how competitive some of the bidding processes are for those assets?
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
Yes, we are seeing increased activity. We are very much involved in any and all processes that involve assets with engineered products within our size range. It is competitive. Valuations are, you know, not cheap.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
We'll remain disciplined. We continue to evaluate multiple opportunities. We think that there are opportunities where we can create value at current multiples at which these assets are trading.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah, we're seeing good things. More to come on that.
Connor Dezert (Global Investment Research Associate)
Okay, that's helpful. Just kind of a follow-up on that. As I look out through 2026 and 2027, I think the VISION 2027, you guys have had a $75 million, you know, revenue contribution placeholder from M&A. It starts to look a little more possible that, you know, at least the bottom end of that range could be reached just organically from here. Is that kind of the right way to think about it, given some of the pickup in momentum, especially in some of the defense areas of the business? Or in your guys' view, does that VISION 2027 still rely on that $75 million placeholder from M&A? Thanks.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
Yes. I would say yes, it does. Getting to that within that range will definitely require the M&A piece. Mainly driven by commercial aerospace recovery pace that we have seen, versus what everyone would have naturally expected back in December of 2022, when we put that plan together. The production outlook at that point in time versus reality today is very different.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah, yeah.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
Well, no, defense has been great, and we'll continue to see strong growth, which continue to remain bullish. you know, some of that will happen in 2027 and beyond, in terms of production ramp up on some of these missile platforms. The longer term outlook for the company and defense is very strong.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah.
Suman Mookerji (SVP and CFO)
It's you know, not all of it is going to come into 2026 and 2027.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. We're gonna, you know, work on 75. I mean, we purchased BLR in 2023, so that's part of the 75, which is helping, but we've got more to work to do on the 75, and we're hard at it there, Connor.
Connor Dezert (Global Investment Research Associate)
Okay. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah, appreciate you, calling in. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
I am showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand it over to Stephen Oswald for closing remarks.
Stephen Oswald (Chairman, President and CEO)
Great. Thank you. Again, thanks for joining us. Very much appreciate your time this morning. Also, all the excellent questions. We always appreciate the dialogue, you know, after our script, reading our script. That was great. We are excited about the year. We're also looking forward, as I mentioned earlier, to our September meeting, in New York. We hope that everybody can either make it, personally, in person or online. We think it'll be an exciting day for not only to update on the VISION 2027 progress, which we're happy about, but also talk about our big future together. With that, I'll leave it, and have a great and a safe day. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.